CC Levant North Africa

Climate Change in the Arab World

The Research and Policy Forum onClimate Change and Environment in

the Arab World presents"CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER AND THE

POLICY-MAKING PROCESS IN THE LEVANT

AND NORTH AFRICA"

ISSUE 1 JANUARY 2010 the BANKING EXECUTIVE

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LEVANT AND NORTH AFRICAREGION: AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER

RESOURCES, REGIONAL STATE OF AWARENESS ANDPREPAREDNESS, AND THE ROAD AHEAD.

BY DR. HAMED ASSAF, PH.D., P.ENG, MASCE

The Research and Policy Forum on Climate Change and Environment in the Arab World atthe Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut


It is ironic that climate change is ac-tually projected to bring more waterto the world, yet it is expected tobring more to those who have moreof it, mainly equatorial and high lat-itude regions, and less for those whohave less of it, mostly the subtropicalmid-latitude areas such as the LNA.

A more water polarized world isgoing to emerge as climate changeintensifies. If the projections of a veryrecent climate change assessment(Kitoh et al 2008) study are accurate,the Fertile Crescent, the cradle of civ-ilization, will cease to be fertile andwill turn into a dust bowl that will nolonger sustain the welfare of its peo-ple after making the longest journeyin human history. Could this be whatthe future is holding for our region?An end to our nations and the turningof our future generations, and possi-bly us, into refugees seeking betterlife in more humid regions. Are weready then? What is the currentknowledge and awareness of climatechange and its potential impacts onwater resources among the differentsectors of the society including re-searchers, policy makers, civil soci-ety activists and the public at large?What is the state of readiness in ourinstitutional framework to avert thisimpending disaster? These are thequestions this study is trying to an-swer. The authors have also at-tempted to chart a preliminary roadmap for action. The study findingsand recommendations are presentedfor open discussion and deliberationswith colleagues to improve our un-derstanding of and readiness for cli-

mate change and its impact on waterresources.

To help frame the study in a climaterelated context we start the paper bypresenting a general overview of thecurrent climatic conditions of the re-gion. We move then to present whatis known now about climate changeprojections for the region relying onthe most recently published results ofGCMs simulations. The role of theWesterlies as the global atmosphericcarrier of moisture to the LNA region,and its sensitivity to climate changewill be emphasized. We will thendiscuss the pressing issue of chronicwater scarcity in the region, watergovernance, research efforts and itslinks to policy making, and the rolesof civil society, media and donor or-ganization. An important componentof this study is understanding howthese different key players are en-gaged and interacting in dealing withthis global phenomenon. Althoughthe paper provides a generaloverview of the climate change is-sues in the LNA region, the focus ofanalysis will be on the Levant.

CLIMATE OF THE LEVANTThe climate of the Levant is shapednot only by global circulation sys-tems, but also by its highly complexand sharply variable topography. Thechange from hyper-arid deserts tosteppes to cool highlands all occurwithin few hundred kilometers.

The coastal mountain range

along the Eastern Mediterranean ar-rests moisture from the humidWesterlies wind system movingacross the region in the win-ter.

Stored as snowfall to be releasedlater as snowmelt or rainfall that runoff the surface or percolates intoaquifers, these water resources giverise to the Levant rivers of Jordan,Litani and Assi as well all othersmaller Lebanese rivers. Similarly,but at a much larger scale, the Taurusand Zagros Mountains that flank theFertile Crescent to the north and eastcapture orographic precipitation toform the headwaters of the Euphratesand Tigris Rivers (Jason et al 2004)which have sustained the longesthuman settlement in otherwise bar-ren desert. The Levant is character-ized by rainless and hot summers.This stark disparity between winterand summer moisture conditions hasevolved over few thousand years andis believed to have been the drive forthe invention of agriculture and irri-gation (Issar and Zohar 2007). Waterworks were developed to bring waterto drier areas and made it possible toestablish a solid foundation for or-ganized societies and states.

The Westerlies are the pre-vailing winds in the mid lati-

tudes driven in the NorthernHemisphere by the gradient in at-mospheric pressure between the At-lantic high and the Arctic lowexpressed in terms of the North At-

ISSUE 1 JANUARY 2010the BANKING EXECUTIVE

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It is now widely acknowledged that climate change is fast approaching us and manyassert that it is already underway. Are we ready for it? The bad news is that the Levant and

North Africa (LNA) region is projected by most climate general circulation models (GCMs) tobe the most severally impacted region in the world as it is expected to

undergo severe water scarcity that will jeopardize its socio-economic developmentand potentially the very integrity of its nations. Countries of the LNA are already some of themost water impoverished in the world and are ill prepared to managing with even less water

having some of the fastest expanding populations in the world with growing appetites formore water and water consuming goods and services.

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lantic Oscillation (NAO) index(Hurrell 2003). Due to the Earth’srotation the Westerlies blow north-westerly in the NorthernHemisphere.

In years when the difference betweenthe Arctic low and Atlantic high islarge (positive NAO) the Westerliesshift to the north which results in lessprecipitation over southern Europe,North Africa and Eastern Mediter-ranean (See Figure 1-a). Converselywhen the NAO is negative, i.e.weaker difference in pressure gradi-ent, the Westerlies drift south to-wards southern Europe, North Africaand the Eastern Mediterranean bring-ing more water to these areas (SeeFigure 1-b). Several studies have con-firmed the strong association be-tween the NAO and drought cyclesin the Meditterranean (Cullen et al2002). Recent studies have alsoshown that the NAO is positivelylinked to climate change (see Figure2).

END-OF-CENTURY CLIMATICOUTK FOR THE LNAA recent analysis of climate changeprojections simulated by 20 leadingGCMs has placed the Mediterraneanbasin particularly its southern andeastern banks (i.e., the LNA region)on top of the list of regions to un-dergo a severe process of aridifica-tion characterized by hot and drierconditions with extensive and pro-longed droughts (Giorgi 2006). Thesedire projections have been reiteratedby the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) in its compre-hensive state-of-the-art review of cli-mate change literature across theglobe (IPCC 2007).

Figure 3 presents results from theIPCC analysis of climate simulationsfrom fifteen leading GCMs compar-ing changes of annual means of fourhydrological variables (precipitation,evaporation, soil moisture andrunoff) for the period 2080-2099 rel-ative to 1980-1999 for the emission

scenario A1B, which represents av-erage GHGs emissions (about 700ppm of CO2 equivalent by year2099). Stippled areas indicate re-gions where 80% of the modelsagree on the sign of the meanchange.

The LNA region clearly standsout not only as the one with

the highest projected reductionsand increases in annual precipita-tion and evaporation, respectively,but also as the region where 80%percent of the models agree on thedirection of this change.

These projections are also reflectedin projected decreases in soil mois-ture and river runoffs - two key fac-tors for sustainability of agricultureand water supply. The ramificationsof these projections would be phe-nomenal given that the region is al-ready experiencing severe waterscarcity.

The LNA region also scores high onprojected increases in the annualmaximum number of consecutivedry days, a measure of drought sever-ity, as shown in the right map of Fig-ure 4.

Stippled areas indicate regions were5 out of 9 models used in this analy-


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Figure 1.

Impact of NAO

on the Westerlies

climate system:

a) high NAO;

b) low NAO.

(source

http://www.ldeo.

columbia.edu/

NAO).


sis agree on the direction of change.The left map shows projectedchanges in precipitation intensity cal-culated as the total precipitation di-vided by wet days. The LNA regionsindicate a moderate to negligiblechange with respect to this indicator.Analysis of observed annual precipi-tations in Lebanon since 1967showed significant downward trendthat brought down total precipitationby 12% over the past 40 years (Sha-ban 2008).Temperature rise in theorder of 2oC was assessed to result inan earlier depletion of snowpack inthe Nahr Ibrahim watershed whichwould shift the peak of runoff fromFebruary to April (Hreiche et al.2007).


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Figure 2. Link between NAO and climate change.

Figure 3. Climate Change Projection for selected hydrological variables (IPCC 2007).


An assessment of the impactof climate change on the

water balance of the Zarqa riverbasin in Jordan has shown that pre-cipitation reduction in the range of10% to 20% are bound to have sig-nificant impact on the total yield ofthe semi-arid basin (Abdullaet al. 2009).

In contrast, the same study hasshown that the basin is less sensitiveto projected changes in temperaturein the range of 1oC to 3.5oC.

PUBLIC AWARENESS OF CLIMATECHANGE AND THE ROLE OFMEDIAWhen did the world at large start toget worried about or even be awareof climate change? Year 1998 is pos-sibly the milestone when there was ashift from public skepticism aboutthe very existence of climate changeto the conviction that it is the mostsignificant global issue.

This is the year when Mann etal. (1998) declared in their

well known article in the “Nature”journal that “the 1990s are likelythe warmest decade, and 1998 thewarmest year in at least a millen-nium” warning the world that theclimate is changing in an un-precedented way.

The outlook looks even bleaker asthe next several years showed in-creasingly higher global averagetemperatures (see Figure 5) with year2005 hitting a record of 14.75 OC,well above the 14.72 OC recorded in1998.

Significantly, the mean of averageglobal temperatures of the first sevenyears in the 21st century was thehighest in record. The evidence ofclimate warming was corroboratedwith reports of melting of ice sheets

in the Arctic and glaciers in differentparts of the world, and noticeablerises in sea levels. The trend ofwarming suddenly changed in 2008with the global temperature dippingto 14.55 OC. However some scien-tists were quick to report that thecooling is not related to current ef-forts in reducing emissions of GHGs,but rather the result of relatively coldsea surface temperatures in the east-ern equatorial Pacific caused by a re-cent La Niña event (Vaughan 2008).


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Figure 4. Global projections of precipitation intensity and dry days (annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) (IPCC 2007).

Figure 5. Average global temperatures(1880-2008) (data source: Goddard (2009)


The Media in the western world hastaken a great interest in the issue ofclimate change. Large media organi-zations including the BBC and CNNhave launched dedicated programsto inform and update the public onclimate change issues. Full-time cor-respondents with support from highlyqualified climate change expertshave articulated complex issuesabout climate and advanced modelin simple, yet accurate language.

In comparison, the LNA region as therest of the Arab world has takenlonger time to react to these develop-ments. This is possibly due to severalreasons, not the least of which is thepreoccupation with economical andpolitical issues. However, the rapidgrowth in LNA region’s access towestern media through satellite net-works and the internet has increasedpeople’s awareness of climatechange issues.

Regional media outlets have gener-ally adopted a passive approach ofrebroadcasting information obtainedvia western media. An exception wasAljazeera who has adopted a proac-tive approach through providing amore comprehensive coverage in-cluding documentaries, interviewswith regional experts and talk shows,that are more tuned to the region’spertinent climate change issues. Al-jazeera has also played an importantrole of breaking the language barrierthrough reaching out to large seg-ments of the society that can onlyspeak Arabic. Other large media cor-porations, such as LBC and Alarabiaare improving their coverage of cli-mate change. A less formal internet-based media, such as personal blogs,are playing an increasingly importantrole in climate change awareness(e.g., see ArabEnvironment (2009)).

RESEARCH EFFORTS

Early research activities onclimate change and its impact

on water resources in the Levantdates back to the turn of this cen-tury, which comes at the heel of

Mann et al’s warning of impendingclimate change.

One of the earlier studies belongs toAbu-Taleb (2000) who examined theimpact of climate change on watersupply/demand in Jordan. El-Fadeland Bou-Zeid (2003) evaluated theimpact of climate change on waterresources in several Middle Easterncountries including those of the Lev-ant. However, their analysis is basedon “outdated models from the mid-1990” (Michaelowa 2006).

Regional research is mostly based oninformation and technology devel-oped abroad. Although these re-sources are valuable they may not bereliably and consistently applied inthe Levant region due to significantgaps in climate and water relateddata. This information deficiencyhampers many local research efforts.Jason et al. (2004) described the Mid-dle East as “a data sparse area”, withfew climatic regional such as thosereported by Mariotti et al. (2008) andKrichak et al. (2005).

Despite the urgent needs for informa-tion and development of regional cli-mate models no initiative has beenreported to be directed towardsachieving these goals. Weak supportfor research in the Levant and theArab world in general are the out-come of decades of neglect to placeresearch in the priority list for publicand private funding. Research on cli-mate change in the Levant is gener-ally conducted on an ad-hoc basis byindividual researchers who naturallyadhere to limited scope research in-terests. These efforts in isolation cannot be expected to adequately prior-itize and address pertinent climatechange issues facing the region. Thiscan be only achieved via sound na-tional research policies with strongbacking and buy-in at the highestlevels. Collaboration has becomemore prevalent in the region to lever-age and compliment research skillsand limited research resources anddata. For example, researchers from

the International Center for Agricul-tural Research in the Dry Areas(ICARDA) in Syria and INRGREF inTunisia have worked together in in-vestigating measures to improve irri-gation efficiency and exploringmethods for utilizing treated waste-water and low quality water (Pereiraet al. 2002). Recently, researchersfrom the American University ofBeirut (AUB) and Jordan Universityfor Science and Technology (JUST)have investigated the impact of cli-mate change on water balance in theZarqa watershed (Abdulla et al.2009).

Most of the collaborative research ef-forts on climate change are initiatedand supported by foreign donors andresearch institutes. For example theGlobal Change in the HydrologicalCycle (GLOWA) program supportsregional research on integrated waterresources management in the JordanRiver. The program has placed greatemphasis on the impact of climatechange on the Jordan River (GLOWA2009).

The German Federal Institute forGeosciences and Natural Resources(BGR) and the Arab Centre for theStudies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands(ACSAD) have collaborated for manyyears on groundwater modeling andmanagement research. They have re-cently organized a conference onwater resources management inDamascus, which drew a large num-ber of researchers mostly from theLevant region (ACSAD 2009).

Regional conferences focusing onclimate change and water issues per-tinent to the region provide a con-ductive environment for researchersto exchange information and ideasand develop working relationships.The German-Arab Scientific Forumfor Environmental Studies, headed byDr. Fathi Zerieni, has organized the“Climatic Changes and Water Re-sources in the Middle East and inNorth Africa” conference in Fez, Mo-rocco. The conference had a largegathering of researchers from the


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Arab world, mostly from the Levantand North Africa region. Several newresearch findings were presented atthe conference.

The Issam Fares Institute for PublicPolicy and International Affairs (IFI)of AUB has been actively pursuingan initiative to bridge the gap be-tween researchers and policy mak-ers. Several workshops wereorganized over the past two yearsbringing together policy makers, in-cluding ministers, NGOs and re-searchers from the LNA region andthe Arab world. The role of IFI is dis-cussed in more detail in a later sec-tion.

WATER GOVERNANCEDespite climate change projectionsof severe reduction in water re-sources in the Levant, there seem tobe no indication this issue is consid-ered in the current water governancesystem. In fact, the countries of theLevant are still lagging in reformingtheir institutional frameworks to dealwith the chronic water scarcity. Jor-dan has prepared a progressive waterstrategy that, if implemented, will re-solve several flaws in Jordan’s watergovernance. However, only a gen-eral reference was made to climatechange in the document (Jordan2009). The following sections pro-vide brief description of the currentwater governance structure in eachcountry of the Levant:

JordanWater resources in Jordan is formallymanaged by the Ministry of Waterand Irrigation which oversees twoauthorities: the Water Authority ofJordan (WAJ) and the Jordan ValleyAuthority (JVA). However, there islack of communication and coordi-nation among the three agencieswhich results in overstaffing, overlap-ping in responsibilities and generaloperational inefficiencies. The newwater strategy acknowledges theseinstitutional deficiencies and calls fordrastic reformulation (Jordan 2009).Jordan water strategy adopts an

IWRM approach that emphasizewater demand management, reduc-tion in inefficient agricultural activi-ties, involvement of stakeholdersespecially through water users asso-ciations, water quality management,wastewater reuse, and conservativeutilization of non-renewable waterresources. Although the strategy ac-knowledges the expected negativeimpact of climate change on waterresources, it does not offer specificadaptive solutions. The newly cre-ated active in pursuing policies forreducing GHGs releases. Its ministerKhaled Irani has been active in par-ticipating in several conferences inthe Levant and Arab region address-ing the issue of climate change (e.g.,conference organized by IFI).

LebanonThe Ministry of Energy and Water(MoEW) is responsible for settingwater resources policies and oversee-ing water resources management

through recently created four waterauthorities organized along the maingeodemographic regions of Lebanon.However the authority of these agen-cies is still being challenged by sev-eral of the previous 21 utilities theyhad replaced few years ago. The cur-rent Lebanese water legislative sys-tem does not address the issue ofclimate change.

The MoEW has prepared in 1999 adecennial water master plan with abudget of $1.5 billion (Comair 2006).Despite having some IWRM features,the water master plan mostly focuseson developing water supply projects.The plan makes no reference to thepotential impact of climate change.The Ministry of Environment is ac-tively involved in raising publicawareness of climate change. It cam-paigns for energy conservation andprotection of forests.

PalestineThe water sector in the Palestinianterritories was organized accordingto a water law enacted in 2002 thatseparates between policy making,regulatory and operational bodies.However, due to political instabilityand the interference of Israel, the ac-tual governance system is mired withoverlapping in responsibilities andblurred separation among the differ-ent authorities (Zeitoun 2008).

No specific legislation was reportedto have been developed to addressclimate change. However, the presi-dent of the Palestinian authority wasquoted to have ordered the plantingof several million trees to “combat”climate change (WAFA 2009).

SyriaThe Ministry of Irrigation is responsi-ble for water resources planning andmanagement. A new water law wasenacted to streamline the ministrywater governing structure. Climatechange is not considered in the cur-rent water regulations. Successive 5-year water plans focus mostly on


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water resource infrastructure and de-velopment of water resources sup-plies.

ENGAGING POLICY WITH RESEARCHAs indicated above, water policiesand regulations in the Levant aremute on the issue of climate change,despite the mounting evidence of itsprojected devastating impact onwater resources in the region. This ispartly due to the general disconnectbetween the research communityand policy makers, and that the latterare not accustomed to keeping upwith rapid changes in knowledge asin the case of climate change. Evenin more advanced societies, policymakers generally prefer to only ac-knowledge more established tech-nology and information. However,the highly significant consequencesof climate change in the LNA neces-sitate actively engaging policy mak-ers with the research community.

In pursuing this objective, the IssamFares Institute (IFI) for Public Policyand International Affairs at AUB haslaunched the “Research and PolicyForum on Climate Change and Envi-ronment in the Arab” program. Thisinitiative supports series of work-shops and seminars that brings to-gether climate change researcherswith policy makers, NGOs and the

public from different parts of theArab world. Several key policy mak-ers and active representatives of civilsociety have participated in theseevents and provided valuable in-sights and different perspectives onclimate change issues. Lively dia-logues and discussions have charac-terized these gatherings andfacilitated interaction and feedbackamong these otherwise disparategroups. IFI’s climate change programhas also attracted the attention of themedia which has further raised pub-lic awareness of climate changethrough parallel coverage of the pro-gram’s events. To further increase theprogram’s outreach the IFI has con-sistently issued policy memos sum-marizing experts’ recommendationand the outcome of these lively dia-logues on climate change (see forexample Assaf (2009) and Farajalla(2008).)

THE CIVIL SOCIETY

It can be argued that the civilsociety groups are possibly the

most dynamic player in theclimate change arena.

Due to their general fluidity and in-formality they tend to link to eachother quickly and foster collabora-tion across different countries in theLNA region and the Arab world atlarge. This can be seen in at leastthree active umbrella groups: ArabIntegrated Water Resources Manage-ment Network (AWARENET), theArab Network for Environment andDevelopment (RAED) (RAED 2009)and the Arab NGO Network for De-velopment (ANND) (ANND 2009).Activists in climate change can begenerally categorized into those whoadhere to mitigation strategy andthose who focus on adaptation. Inthe climate change terminology, mit-igation refers to efforts to curb releaseof GHGs, while adaptation refers toefforts in making social and environ-mental system capable of withstand-ing the impact of climate change. Onthe mitigation front, IndyAct stands

out as the most vocal and outreach-ing group. Over the past few years,they have organized several publiccampaigns including street protests,workshops and media coverage. Thegroup takes a strong stand on the mit-igation efforts and generally shunsaway from adaptation as they consid-ered it, based on comments from itsexecutive director Wael Hmaidan,acquiescence and sell out to thosewho want to maintain the status quoof GHGs releases. The group hasalso publicly criticized some Arab oilproducing countries who, accordingto the group, are to trying to foil at-tempts to ratify a strong internationalagreement on curbing GHGs. It isfair to say that the group has lessenedits stance as it entered into alliancewith other civic groups in the ANND.

In contrast to IndyAct, RAED hasadopted an active adaptation strat-egy. RAED which is composed ofseveral Arab NGOs have strong tiesto the Arab League, and have an ob-server seat in the League. They haverecently launched in Beirut a pro-gram to support small scale adapta-tion projects in selected Arabcountries.

AWARENET as an advocate of IWRMhas been recently active in promot-ing this approach as an adaptationstrategy. They have leveraged inter-national effort spearheaded byUNDEP CapNET and WMO andsupported their capacity buildingprogram on IWRM and climatechange. AWARENET have recentlyformed a Climate Change workinggroup which held its first meeting inBeirut on July 29-30, 2009.

Another well established environ-mental NGO, Arab Forum for Envi-ronment and Development (AFED)(AFED 2009a), has also been quiteactive on raising awareness of cli-mate change through public confer-ences, TV interviews, andpublications. AFED have recentlymoved its office from Cairo to Beirut.The NGO is organizing a conferenceon Aug 19 – 20, 2009 in Beirut to


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present findings from a report pre-pared by regional experts on climatechange issues (AFED 2009b). Al-jazeera interviewed its co-founderalong with other experts to discussclimate change. The AFED is associ-ated with the Beirut-based Environ-ment & Development Magazine,edited by an AFED co-founder Dr.Najiib Saab. These recent flurries ofNGOs activities are related to the up-coming Copenhagen meeting, whichis considered a new landmark in theinternational efforts to manage cli-mate change. It is hoped that the mo-mentum generated by these activitiesis cultivated to pursue a more steadysupport for climate change activitiesin the region.

WATER CONFLICTSThe exasperation of water scarcity byclimate change is expected to in-crease tension over shared water re-sources which may lead to conflictincluding armed one. Brown andCrawford (2009) has concluded thatclimate change will undermine na-tional economies in the Levant, ex-acerbate food insecurity, and lead toextreme competition and possibly vi-olent conflict over dwindling watersupplies. Rising water scarcity notonly in the headwater regions of theEuphrates and Tigris, but across otherregions of Turkey could lead Turkishauthorities to transfer significantamounts of water out of these riverbasins to satisfy out-of-basin waterdeficient regions. This would lead todirect confrontation, and possiblywar, between Turkey and Iraq andSyria. What increases the risk of thisconfrontation is the heavy invest-ment Turkey has already made notonly in building reservoirs but also indeveloping extensive water transferfor moving water out of the basin.

THINKING AHEADThe above review has shown that theLevant region is both highly vulnera-ble and severely exposed to the arid-ification of climate change.Independent of whether the climate

change impact materializes or not,the vulnerability of the Levant is afunction of the region’s poverty inwater and other natural resources,poor management of these resources,heavy food imports, weakeconomies, and consequently the in-ability of governments to provide fortheir rapidly growing populations.Consequently, designing a strategy toadapt to the climate change in rela-tion to water resources requires bothassessing the impact of climatechange on these resources, and iden-tifying measures to reduce the re-gion’s vulnerability and enhances itsresilience. We have identified fiveareas of action that the region shouldconsider in planning for climatechange.

These areas are water policy andgovernance, research, role of civilsociety and the public, managementof population growth, and waterplanning and management. Theorder of this list does not imply sig-nificance of one area over the other.Each of these areas of action is dis-cussed below.

WATER POLICY AND GOVERNANCEGovernments of the Levant have notgiven climate change a priority thatsignifies its severe implications towater resources. At best, issues of cli-mate change have been delegated tonewly created ministries of environ-ment, which are considered second-ary to other posts. The ministries ofenvironment mostly focus on the mit-igation side with little emphasis onwater resources. This is mainly a re-sult of the mandate of these min-istries, which restrict theirinvolvement in the management ofwater resources. A more beneficialarrangement is to involve ministriesresponsible for managing water re-sources to play an active role on set-ting climate change policies. Thisrequires both building the capacity toachieve this objective, and more im-portantly having the political will topursue this objective.

California provides a goodmodel for developing water

policies addressing specifi-cally climate change.

The top administrators in this eco-nomically powerful state have real-ized at an early stage that climatechange will have significant impacton their water resources which sup-ports possibly the largest irrigatedarea in the world. Several assessmentand policy studies were commis-sioned, and the state has made it alaw to incorporate climate change intheir water planning and legislation.Setting unequivocal policies on cli-mate change and water resourceswill pave the way to reform water in-stitutional framework and laws tomanage increasing water scarcityand reduce the overall vulnerabilityof the region to climate change.

RESEARCHAs indicated earlier, climate changeresearch in the Levant suffers fromunderfunding, availability of dataand facilities, and the lack of nationalpolicies that prioritizes areas of re-search. Governments blame weakeconomic base for the inability tosupport research.

However, the problem is more re-lated to priority setting, and that cli-mate change is either at the bottomof the priority list or not there in thefirst place. Raising the profile of cli-mate change research on the na-tional agenda requires bringingpolicy makers closer to the researchcommunity. As presented earlier theIFI is playing a key role in providingthe forum for such interaction. Thereare several climate change researchgaps that need to be addressed. Sev-eral researchers have strongly recom-mended the development of regionalclimate model that will better cap-ture the influence of the regionunique topography on climate. Thiseffort requires however solid basicresearch and climate modeling ex-pertise, which are absent in the re-


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gion. This can be only achievedthrough long-term planning that in-volves the development of special-ized departments and programs inacademic and research institutes.The lack of data and information isanother major obstacle in climatechange research. There should be aconcerted effort to support the devel-opment of an extensive network forclimate data including utilizing ad-vanced technologies to develop newdata networks and rehabilitate exist-ing ones.

THE MEDIA AND CIVIL SOCIETYAs the dominant medium for passing,interpreting and potentially biasinginformation, the media has a signifi-cant role to play in helping the pub-lic and also policy makers develop abalanced understanding and appre-ciation of the climate change phe-nomena and its projected impacts.

With few exceptions, the media inthe Levant has acted at best as a pas-sive carrier of information passed onby western media. The Arab media isencouraged to follow the path ofwestern news agencies, in particularthe BBC and CNN, who have dedi-cated programs with full time corre-spondents and support from highlyqualified experts for reporting, ana-lyzing and disseminating climatechange information on a timelybasis. The Aljazeera has set a goodexample of a pan Arab media com-mitted to a high quality journalismand accurate reporting on differentissues including climate change. Thenews agency has given extensivecoverage of climate change with rel-evant focus and relevant reflectionon the Arab world. As in the westernmedia, their coverage gain credibilitythrough inviting regional and inter-national experts to discuss and an-swer question raised by a live

audience.

The civil society has recentlybeen quite active in organiz-

ing workshops and campaigns toraise awareness of climate changeand promote mitigation and/oradaption actions on the part of thegovernment and the public.

Civil societies do not necessarilyagree on the same issues and meas-ures. Although this may cause confu-sion to their audience, it neverthelessreflects a healthier and democraticatmosphere that in the long run en-courages more active participation ofthe public and policy makers. Civilsociety activists should more activelyengage the research community toavoid the trap of over-popularizingcertain climate change outlooks inthe rapidly evolving discipline of cli-mate change.


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MANAGEMENTOF POPULATION GROWTHOur scarce water resources and nat-ural resources in general are beingdepleted at alarming rates to keep upwith growing populations. This issimply unsustainable. Although fer-tility rates have halved in the regionover the past 30 years (Dyer 2008),national policies should stronglyfocus on encouraging further reduc-tion in fertility.

WATER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENTA climate change strategy for theLevant should incorporate a solid in-tegrated water resource management(IWRM) component that emphasizessustainability with its social, eco-nomic and environmental dimen-sions. Water resources managementis not a matter of expanding watersupply through building dams andaqueducts or increasing pumping ofgroundwater. It is a balancing act,where both water demand manage-ment as well as water supply devel-opment is considered while assuringavailability of water resources to fu-tures generations. These effortsshould not harm the environment orcreate inequities in access to cleanand affordable water. Water demandmanagement involves controllingusers’ demand through proper waterpricing policies that send users theright signal about the value of water,increasing efficiency of water utili-ties, raising public awareness of thedamaging effect of water scarcity,and reviving the culture of waterconservation that characterized theregion in the near and far pasts.

Water demand management essen-tially allows users to gain ownershipof water scarcity problems and be-come active partners in managing it.Due to long rainless season, highevaporation rates, low soil moistureconditions agriculture in the Levanthave high irrigation requirementsduring times of the year when wateravailability is low. This is com-pounded by the general wasteful use

of water due to the inefficiency of ir-rigation methods and poor croppingplanning. Overall analysis of waterbalance and allocation clearly showsthat irrigated agriculture in manyparts of the Levant is unsustainableespecially when it results in the de-pletion and subsequent salinizationof strategic aquifers. Some countrieslike Jordan have acknowledged theseproblems and set long-term plans toreduce significantly irrigated agricul-ture or phase out it completely inother areas (Jordan 2009). Manyargue that these policies my harmlarge and underprivileged segmentsof the society (Schiffler 1998). How-ever, phasing out agriculture shouldbe accompanied with retraining andjob creation programs that focus onmore productive sectors of the econ-omy. Under water scarcity condi-tions, agriculture should be treated asan industry measured by its waterproductivity and its contribution tothe national economy. Increasinglytreated wastewater is becoming a vi-able water supply option, particu-larly to the agriculture sector, whichis expected to lose a large share offresh water resources. Jordan has tak-ing major steps in setting up a flexi-ble system to utilize wastewaterloads from major urban area to beused mostly in the Dead Sea valley.

A system has emergedwhere Amman re-ceives freshwaters u p p l i e spumped fromthe valley,with treatedw a s t e w a t e rsent by gravityto farmersin the valley. Arecent study by AHT (2009) hasshown that wastewater can be aviable water supply under conditionsof water scarcity, which increases thevalue of freshwater.

Climate change impact studies haveshown that the reliability of a watersupply system especially in the faceof extended drought periods is

largely dependent on its storage andtransfer capacities (Kirshen et al2006). Consequently, our water re-sources infrastructure should beplanned or rehabilitated to includeadequate storage capacity made ge-ographically accessible through asystem of water conveyance andtransfer systems. Considering the ex-tensive capital requirements andlong development stage, these sys-tems should be planned well aheadof critical water scarcity conditions.

A successful water adaptation strat-egy is not necessarily contingent onintroducing novel ideas and complexschemes. Looking into our past wesee examples of societies that haveweathered through difficult journeysstrewn with droughts, famine, andbitter conflicts. Example of earlieradaptations including the Qanatgroundwater systems, landscapingtechniques to reduce soil erosion andmitigated impact of floods, and con-servation and maintenance of strate-gic reserves to manage throughdroughts.


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CC Levant North Africa

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