CBRE HOTELS
Transcript of CBRE HOTELS
2020NATIONAL PRE-COVID-19 ACCOMMODATION OUTLOOK
2 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
CBRE HOTELS - CANADA
ECONOMIC & TRAVEL OUTLOOKS
4 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
$1.96
$2.02
$2.05
$2.08
$2.12
$2.16
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
$1.85
$1.90
$1.95
$2.00
$2.05
$2.10
$2.15
$2.20
$2.25
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 P 2021 P
% C
HA
NG
E
Real GDP ($2012) % Change
Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Autumn 2019, Scotiabank Group – Global Forecast Update January 2020, CIBC Economic Insights February 2020; RBC – Economic and Financial Market Outlook – February 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
5 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL TRAVEL OUTLOOK
OVERNIGHT TRAVEL 2018 F 2019 P 2020 P
Business travel domestic 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
Pleasure travel domestic 1.8% 1.9% 1.6%
Total domestic travel 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
U.S. Travel 3.2% 2.5% 2.4%
Overseas travel 4.7% 4.8% 5.4%
TOTAL OVERNIGHT TRAVEL 1.6% 2.0% 1.8%
National Accommodation Demand Growth*Actual
2.1%* -0.1%* 1.7%
Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019Source: CBRE Hotels
NATIONAL MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
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2019 REGIONAL REVPAR GROWTH
WESTERN CANADA
-0.8%
CENTRAL CANADA
-0.8%
ATLANTIC CANADA
-1.2%
8 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK
1.1%1.5% 1.6%
2.1%
-0.1%
1.7%
2018 2019 2020 F 2018 2019 2020 F
Supply DemandSource: CBRE Hotels
9 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 4.5%
2019 Actual 0.8%
2020 Forecast 2.4%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 5.6%
2019 Actual -0.8%
2020 Forecast 2.5%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 2.1%
2019 Actual -0.1%
2020 Forecast 1.7%
2017 2018 2019 2020 F
Occupancy 66% 66% 65% 65%
ADR $155 $162 $164 $167
RevPAR $102 $107 $107 $109
10 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
$15.8
$15.1$15.5
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating Income/
Available Room ($000’s)
10.7%
-4.1%
2.8%
WESTERN CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
12 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
WESTERN CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE
1.3% 1.3%
1.6%
2.6%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
2.1%
1.1% 1.2%
1.6%
2.1%
MB SK AB BC
REAL
GD
P
2018 2019e 2020f
Source: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020
13 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
WESTERN CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOKS
1.9%
2.5%
1.9%
2.6%
1.6%
2.0% 2.0%
2.5%
1.4%1.6%
2.0%2.2%
MB SK AB BC
Tota
l Ove
rnig
ht P
rovi
nce
Visi
ts%
Gro
wth
2018e 2019f 2020f
Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Outlooks, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019
17 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 BRITISH COLUMBIA REVPAR GROWTH
VANCOUVER ISLAND
-0.3%VANCOUVER
+3.3%
WHISTLER
+0.6%
OTHER B.C.
+2.7%
19 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
BRITISH COLUMBIA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 9.1%
2019 Actual 2.1%
2020 Forecast 3.0%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 10.3%
2019 Actual 2.1%
2020 Forecast 3.2%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 1.6%
2019 Actual 0.7%
2020 Forecast 1.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 P
Occupancy 70% 71% 71% 71%
ADR $173 $189 $193 $198
RevPAR $121 $134 $136 $141
20 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
$27.4$27.8
$28.9
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating
Income/ Available Room ($000’s)
17.2%1.8%
3.8%
BRITISH COLUMBIA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
21 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
BRITISH COLUMBIA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
BRITISH COLUMBIA
2017 2018 2019 2020 F
Occupancy 70% 71% 71% 71%
ADR $173 $189 $193 $198
RevPAR $121 $134 $136 $141
VANCOUVER 2017 2018 2019 2020 FOccupancy 79% 80% 80% 80%
ADR $191 $212 $219 $227
RevPAR $151 $170 $175 $181
22 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 ALBERTA REVPAR GROWTH
CALGARY
-3.9%
ALBERTA RESORTS
+7.3%
EDMONTON
-7.4%
OTHER ALBERTA
-3.4%
24 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ALBERTA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK (EXCL RESORTS)
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 0.7%
2019 Actual -1.3%
2020 Forecast 2.0%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 4.9%
2019 Actual -4.4%
2020 Forecast 2.0%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 5.0%
2019 Actual -0.4%
2020 Forecast 2.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 P
Occupancy 54% 56% 54% 54%
ADR $130 $131 $129 $132
RevPAR $70 $73 $70 $71
25 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
$11.2
$11.2
$11.3
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating
Income/ Available Room ($000’s)
9.2%
-1.0%
1.1%
ALBERTA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
26 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ALBERTA 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 54% 56% 54% 54%
ADR $130 $131 $129 $132
RevPAR $70 $73 $70 $71
CALGARY 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 59% 63% 61% 61%
ADR $144 $146 $145 $148
RevPAR $85 $92 $88 $90
EDMONTON 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 57% 59% 56% 55%
ADR $130 $129 $126 $129
RevPAR $74 $76 $70 $71
ALBERTA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
27 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 SASKATCHEWAN REVPAR GROWTH
REGINA
-4.7%
SASKATOON
+0.6%
OTHER SASKATCHEWAN
-2.5%
28 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
SASKATCHEWAN MAJOR MARKETS OUTLOOK 2020
KEEP YOUR TABLE WITHIN THE GUIDES
Source: CBRE Hotels
SASKATCHEWAN 2017 2018 2019 2020P
Occupancy 54% 57% 56% 56%
ADR $119 $118 $119 $121
RevPAR $65 $67 $66 $67
SASKATOON 2017 2018 2019 2020P
Occupancy 60% 61% 61% 60%
ADR $125 $124 $125 $126
RevPAR $75 $75 $76 $76
REGINA 2017 2018 2019 2020P
Occupancy 56% 60% 57% 58%
ADR $121 $120 $120 $122
RevPAR $68 $72 $68 $70
29 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 MANITOBA REVPAR GROWTH
WINNIPEG
-0.6%
BRANDON
-11.0%
OTHER MANITOBA
-4.3%
30 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
MANITOBA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
MANITOBA 2017 2018 2019 2020P
Occupancy 69% 69% 67% 67%
ADR $123 $125 $125 $128
RevPAR $85 $86 $84 $85
WINNIPEG 2017 2018 2019 2020P
Occupancy 71% 70% 70% 68%
ADR $126 $129 $128 $130
RevPAR $89 $90 $90 $89
31 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 YUKON & NORTHWEST TERRITORIES REVPAR GROWTH
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
-11.1%
YUKON
+2.4%
CENTRAL CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
33 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
CENTRAL CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE
2.5%
2.2%
2.5%
1.7%1.8%
1.5%
QC ON
REAL
GD
P
2018 2019e 2020fSource: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020
34 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
CENTRAL CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOK
1.8%
1.0%
1.8%1.9%
1.6%
2.0%
QC ON
Tota
l Ove
rnig
ht P
rovi
nce
Visi
ts%
Gro
wth
2018e 2019f 2020f
Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Outlooks, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019
39 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 QUEBEC REVPAR GROWTH
MONTREAL
+3.0%
GREATER QUEBEC CITY
+0.4%
OTHER QUEBEC
-4.1%
40 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
QUEBEC 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 3.0%
2019 Actual 1.4%
2020 Forecast 2.5%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 0.8%
2019 Forecast 0.8%
2020 Forecast 3.7%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 0.0%
2019 Actual 0.6%
2020 Forecast 2.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 70% 69% 68% 69%
ADR $168 $173 $176 $180
RevPAR $118 $119 $120 $125
41 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
$13.6$13.4
$14.0
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating
Income/ Available Room ($000’s) 7.6%
-1.9%
4.8%
QUEBEC BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
42 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
QUEBEC MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
QUEBEC 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 70% 69% 68% 69%
ADR $168 $173 $176 $180
RevPAR $118 $119 $120 $125
MONTREAL 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 75% 72% 73% 72%
ADR $175 $180 $183 $189
RevPAR $131 $129 $133 $137
QUEBEC CITY 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 68% 69% 69% 70%
ADR $168 $177 $177 $181
RevPAR $114 $122 $122 $126
43 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 ONTARIO REVPAR GROWTH
TORONTO
-1.6%SOUTHERN ONTARIO
-1.0%
OTTAWA
-4.4%
NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO
+3.1%
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
+3.4%
CENTRAL ONTARIO
-0.1%
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO
+4.9%EASTERN ONTARIO
-1.2%
45 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ONTARIO 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 4.7%
2019 Actual 0.6%
2020 Projection 2.5%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual 6.0%
2019 Actual -1.4%
2020 Projection 2.1%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual 2.0%
2019 Actual -0.5%
2020 Projection 1.5%
2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 69% 70% 69% 69%
ADR $155 $162 $163 $167
RevPAR $107 $114 $112 $114
46 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
$17.1
$16.3$16.6
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating
Income/ Available Room ($000’s)
9.6%
-5.1%
2.0%
ONTARIO BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
47 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ONTARIO MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
ONTARIO 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 69% 70% 69% 69%
ADR $155 $162 $163 $167
RevPAR $107 $114 $112 $114
TORONTO 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 76% 76% 75% 74%
ADR $172 $183 $184 $188
RevPAR $130 $139 $137 $139
48 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ONTARIO MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels
NIAGARA FALLS 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 68% 67% 67% 67%
ADR $161 $167 $168 $173
RevPAR $109 $112 $112 $115
OTTAWA 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 75% 74% 71% 71%
ADR $172 $169 $167 $170
RevPAR $128 $124 $119 $120
ATLANTIC CANADA MARKET &FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
50 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA – GDP BY PROVINCE
Source: Scotiabank Global Outlook, January 14, 2020
-3.5%
2.6%
1.5%0.8%
2.1%2.7%
1.7%
0.6%1.1%
2.0%1.3%
0.7%
NL PE NS NB
REAL
GD
P
2018 2019e 2020f
51 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA – TRAVEL MARKET OUTLOOKS
Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Outlooks, Autumn 2018/Winter 2019
-0.8%
0.3%0.9%
1.5%
2.0%
2.8%
1.7%1.4%
1.0%
1.8%
1.4% 1.3%
NL PE NS NB
Tota
l Ove
rnig
ht P
rovi
nce
Visi
ts%
Gro
wth
2018e 2019f 2020f
52 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
2019 ATLANTIC CANADA REVPAR GROWTH
St. John’s
-1.3%
Charlottetown
+1.2%
Halifax
-2.2%Moncton
0.5%
54 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA 2020 ADR, REVPAR OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
ADR GROWTH2018 Actual 3.0%
2019 Actual -1.0%
2020 Forecast 1.9%
RevPAR GROWTH2018 Actual -0.1%
2019 Actual -1.2%
2020 Forecast 1.9%
Demand GROWTH2018 Actual -0.5%
2019 Actual 1.1%
2020 Forecast 2.3%
2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 63% 61% 61% 61%
ADR $135 $140 $138 $141
RevPAR $86 $86 $85 $86
55 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
$10.1
$9.3 $9.4
2018 2019F 2020P
Adjusted Net Operating
Income/ Available Room ($000’s)
-1.6%
-7.4% 0.7%
ATLANTIC CANADA BOTTOM LINE OUTLOOK
Source: CBRE Hotels
56 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
KEEP YOUR TABLE WITHIN THE GUIDES
Source: CBRE Hotels
NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 62% 53% 56% 55%
ADR $145 $140 $132 $135
RevPAR $91 $75 $73 $75
ST. JOHN’S 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 63% 53% 56% 56%
ADR $149 $142 $133 $136
RevPAR $93 $75 $74 $75
57 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
KEEP YOUR TABLE WITHIN THE GUIDES
Source: CBRE Hotels
NOVA SCOTIA 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 67% 67% 66% 66%
ADR $141 $149 $146 $149
RevPAR $95 $99 $97 $98
HALIFAX 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 72% 70% 70% 68%
ADR $149 $158 $155 $158
RevPAR $107 $111 $108 $107
58 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
ATLANTIC CANADA MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2020
KEEP YOUR TABLE WITHIN THE GUIDES
Source: CBRE Hotels
PEI 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 58% 57% 58% 58%
ADR $145 $152 $155 $157
RevPAR $84 $87 $90 $91
NEW BRUNSWICK 2017 2018 2019 2020F
Occupancy 61% 61% 60% 60%
ADR $121 $125 $129 $131
RevPAR $74 $76 $77 $78
MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOKS
60 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
MAJOR MARKET OUTLOOKS REVPAR PROJECTION 2020
*”Major Markets” refer to Greater Metro AreasSource: CBRE Hotels
2020 RevPAR Ranking Vancouver $181
Toronto $139
Montreal $137
Quebec City $126
Ottawa $120
Niagara Falls $115
Halifax $107
Calgary $90
Winnipeg $89
Saskatoon $76
Edmonton $71
St. John’s $75
Regina $70
-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%
Vanc
ouve
r
Que
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City
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na
Nia
gara
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ls
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St. J
ohn'
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n
Otta
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nipe
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Hal
ifax
> 4% RevPAR Growth
0%-3% RevPAR Growth
RevPARDecline
NATIONAL FINANCIAL OUTLOOKS
62 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
NATIONAL FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
NOTE: Adjusted Net Operating Income is defined as income after property taxes, insurance, management fees, franchise fees, and capital reserves; but before rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. Source: CBRE Hotels
$23.
3
$10.
3
$15.
6
$12.
6
$27.
4
$11.
2
$17.
1
$13.
6
$27.
8
$11.
1
$16.
2
$13.
3
$28.
9
$11.
3
$16.
6
$14.
0
B.C. Alberta Ontario Quebec
Adj
uste
d N
et O
pera
ting
Inco
me
Per
Ava
ilabl
e Ro
om ($
000’
s)
2017 2018 2019F 2020P
Valuation & Advisory ServicesDavid LaroneBrian StanfordFran Hohol
BrokerageMark SparrowLuke ScheerGreg Kwong Ryan TranNick TkachAliya Kurbanova
David FergusonRebecca GodfreyKirstin HallettNicole NguyenCailin Sully-DanielsScott ForlerCarol LopesHildegard SnelgroveJamie Mills
64 2020 OUTLOOK | CBRE HOTELS Source: CBRE Hotels’ Trends in the Hotel Industry National Market with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer | Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this document as well as in CBRE Limited (“CBRE”) publications, or otherwise provided by CBRE isdesigned as a reference and a management tool for the internal use of companies and agencies involved in the travel and tourism industry. Reproduction and quotation in documents and matters relating to provision of third party consulting advice,business planning, solicitation of public funds, debt and equity financing, litigation, property tax or other legal and financial matters is NOT PERMITTED without the written permission of CBRE. Quotation and reproduction of this material is permitted otherwise ONLY if credited to CBRE and referencing our disclaimer as follows: Source: CBRE Limited with reproduction and use of information subject to CBRE Limited Disclaimer / Terms of Use as detailed at https://www.cbre.ca/en/real-estate-services/business-lines/valuation-and-advisory-services/hotels-valuation-and-advisory-services/disclaimer
Users of this information are advised that CBRE Limited does not represent the information contained herein to be definitive or all-inclusive. CBRE Limited believes the information to be reliable, but is not responsible for errors or omissions.
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