CB File August 21About the File

As promised, Champion Briefs is committed to bringing you the best politics disadvantages available and other positions for you to run. This week, the file contains a Midterm Elections DA based on a Republican win being bad as well as updates to an anthro kritik. Next week, were going to release another Midterms disadvantage based on a Democrat win being bad. That file will be easily used to combat this file, if need be. The main thing with midterms is that theyre changing day by day, so you need to make sure that uniqueness is updated almost daily. There will be updates to this weeks uniqueness with next weeks file as well.

Midterm Elections DisadUniquenessSenate Majority Leader Predicts that Democrats will hold onto majority in Senate

Sherfinski, David. Harry Reid: Dems will hold Senate unless something unexpected happens. The Washington Times. 08-19-2014. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/19/harry-reid-dems-will-hold-senate-unless-something-/

In the face of a challenging electoral landscape for his party in this years midterms, SenateMajority LeaderHarry Reid predicted this week theyll [that Democrats will] hold onto their tenuous majority in theSenate barring some unforeseen incident. Well keep the majority unless something unexpected happens,senate-majority/14209243/ target=_blank>the Nevada Democrat told the Reno Gazette-Journal ahead of a local party confab Sunday. Mr. Reids party currently holds a five-seat majority in the upper chamber, but open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia appear likely to flip to the GOP at this point. That means Republicans essentially need to unseat at least three incumbent Democrats in a handful of winnable races in states likeNorth Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana, while retaining GOP-held seats in competitive races in Kentucky and Georgia, to re-take control of the chamber.

Democrats are slightly ahead and have the ability to protect their majority in the Senate

Dahl, Wills. Democrats need to go big for November. LA Post Examiner. 08-20-2014. http://lapostexaminer.com/democrats-need-go-big-november/2014/08/20

First, aMcClatchy-Marist poll shows the GOP taking a five-point lead on the House generic ballot, at 43-38. That was followed by polls in Kentucky and Georgia showing Republicans inching ahead of their Democratic opponents there. On the other hand, a Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Democrats leading 46-39 on the generic ballot, surging from a mere two-point lead last month. And with polls showing Senator Kay Hagan stabilizing her modest lead in North Carolina, Democrats probably have a clearer path to protecting their majority than they had last June.

Democrats can hold onto majority in Senate

Salvanto, Anthony et al. [Doug Rivers, Andy Guess]. Republicans narrowly favored to capture Senate in November. CBS News. 06-27-2014. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/

Elsewhere, though, we see larger leads for Democrats -- in Colorado, for example, and in New Hampshire, where Senator Jeanne Shaheen would comfortably defeat former Senator and possible GOP nominee Scott Brown. Those results suggest the playing field is not expanding quite as far as Republicans might like. Our simulations also show Alaska's Democratic Senator Mark Begich slightly favored to hold onto his seat. Some previous public polling (though there hasn't been much) has suggested a toss-up, perhaps due to the relative dearth of reliable survey data.

Democrats have more campaign money to help them maintain senate majority

Elliott, Philip [Associated Press]. News Guide: Democrats top GOP in House, Senate. SeattlePi. 08-20-2014. http://www.seattlepi.com/news/politics/article/News-Guide-Democrats-top-GOP-in-House-Senate-5701269.php

Senate Democrats' campaign arm outraised its GOP rival again last month and now has $32 million saved to help endangered incumbents defend their narrowmajority. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committeeraised $7.7 million in July and is ready to spend the bulk of it in an effort to turn back Republican challengers. The Democrats' campaign arm has now raised almost $104 million and, as of Aug. 1, the group has spent more than $73 million for the fallcampaign. The National Republican Senatorial Committeesaid over the weekend that it raised almost $5.4 million in July and has $26.6 million ready to help candidates. Fundraising summaries show Republicans with $76 million raised and $53 million spent, outpacing 2010 and 2012efforts.

Slight majority in the Senate is in favor of Democrats

Wang, Sam. Will the 2014 election be a wave or a ripple? The New Yorker. 08-19-2014. http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/will-2014-election-wave-ripple

According to [calculations based on public-opinion polls] these calculations, if the election were held today, Democrats (and the two Independents who caucus with them) would end up with forty-nine or fifty seats, for a loss of five or six seats. In a fifty-fifty split, Vice-President Biden would break ties in favor of the Democrats. Therefore control of the Senate is on the razors edge, and Republicans are at almost exactly even odds for taking over. To date, this 2014 Senate estimate has not moved much, staying within a narrow range.

Internals/LinksThe race is extremely close, any policy shift can change public opinion and the outcome of the election.

Wang, Sam. Will the 2014 election be a wave or a ripple? The New Yorker. 08-19-2014. http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/will-2014-election-wave-ripple

The last time any national question was this close was the Kerry v. Bush Presidential race, in 2004. In such a tight scenario, public opinion would have to shift across the board by only two percentage points to create a clear advantage for either side. But based on whats happened so far in 2014, its doubtful that we will see that much of a swingwe may be in for a suspenseful fall campaign. With margins this tight, what matters is not a wave but individual Senate campaigns. At the moment, polls indicate that six Senate races are within two percentage points or less: Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina. To win control, Republicans must win four of these races. As a result, state-specific details such as Iowan Joni Ernsts viewson impeachment and the United Nations Agenda 21, a third-party candidacy in North Carolina, and Mitch McConnells job-approval ratings in Kentucky may determine whether President Obama gets any judicial nominees approved in his last two years of office. Those local splashes, not a big wave, will shape who controls next years Senate.

Virtually tied Senate race can be decided by any pressure points

Rucker, Philip et al. [Robert Costa and Matea Gold]. Unlike Previous midterm election years, no dominant theme has emerged for 2014. 08-09-2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/unlike-previous-midterm-election-years-no-dominant-theme-has-emerged-for-2014/2014/08/09/8775aca6-1f0a-11e4-ae54-0cfe1f974f8a_story.html

As long as it has been polling, Gallup has asked voters to state their most important problem. For the first midterm cycle since 1998, no single issue registers with more than 20percent of voters. Immigration was the top concern for 17percent of those Gallup surveyed in July, while 16percent said government dissatisfaction and 15percent the economy. The result could be an especially unpredictable final 12weeks of the campaign. With voter turnout expected to be low and several big races virtually tied, campaigns everywhere are searching for pressure points by taking advantage of news events or colorful and, at times, highly parochial issues to motivate their base voters to go to the polls.

One mistake by the Democrats can shift the election in favor of the Republicans.

Rucker, Philip et al. [Robert Costa and Matea Gold]. Unlike Previous midterm election years, no dominant theme has emerged for 2014. 08-09-2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/unlike-previous-midterm-election-years-no-dominant-theme-has-emerged-for-2014/2014/08/09/8775aca6-1f0a-11e4-ae54-0cfe1f974f8a_story.html

There is hope in the uncertainty for both parties. Democrats believe they have an opening to use wedge issues, such as same-sex marriage, access to birth control and abortion, to rally opposition against Republicans. Republicans, meanwhile, see the potential to expand their opportunities and turn what they expect to be a good year into a great one. Its like a close basketball game and then something happens, there is a breakaway, and it goes from a three- to four-point game to a 10-point win, Republican strategist Ed Rollins said.

Democrats have to be cautious due to close senate raceMasters, Clay. Campaigns Ramp Up in Iowas Tight U.S. Senate Race. Iowa Public Radio. 08-20-2014. http://iowapublicradio.org/post/campaigns-ramp-iowa-s-tight-us-senate-race

Republicans have their eye on a handful of seats they need to pick up to take control of the U.S. Senate this November. One is longtime Democratic Senator TomHarkin, whos retiring later this year. The open seat pits Democratic Congressman BruceBraleyagainst Republican State Senator Joni Ernst.Polls show the race neck and neckas the candidates have just more than two months left to campaign. Historically, the party thats in the White House fairs poorly in midterm elections. That doesnt mean that any one Democrat will do more poorly, said University of Northern Iowa Political Science Professor Donna Hoffman [said]. It does mean that the Democrats have to be very careful about their senate races because they do want to keep control of the Senate.

Senate Candidates are neck and neck in important states