Causes of Civil WarsCauses of Civil Wars

Political and Economic FactorsPolitical and Economic Factors

in contemporary civil wars

Johan M.G. van der Dennen

Causes of Civil Wars• Byman & Van Evera's (1998: 23) main

thesis is that, in recent years, civil war has replaced international war as the dominant form of war and has nearly replaced it as the only form of war (cf. Murshed, 2001). The Persian gulf war of 1990-91 has been the only major old-fashioned interstate war since 1989. The war problem is now largely synonymous with the civil war problem.

Causes of Civil Wars• Byman & van Evera hypothesize that seven

causes of civil violence stand out in importance (that is, in their potency and prevalence) in the cold war and post-cold war periods. They are:

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;– reform trap:

• democratization

• hunkering down

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

• 3. State weakness;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

• 3. State weakness;

• 4. Communal hegemonism;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

• 3. State weakness;

• 4. Communal hegemonism;

• 5. Revolutionary ideology;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

• 3. State weakness;

• 4. Communal hegemonism;

• 5. Revolutionary ideology;

• 6. Aristocratic intransigence;

Causes of Civil Wars• 1. The collapse of post-Second World War

empires;

• 2. A lack of regime legitimacy;

• 3. State weakness;

• 4. Communal hegemonism;

• 5. Revolutionary ideology;

• 6. Aristocratic intransigence;

• 7. Superpower proxy wars

Causes of Civil Wars• All seven cause operated both during and after the

cold war, but some were more prevalent during the cold war while some have been more prevalent afterward. Specifically, the first three causes listed above (collapse of empire, regime illegitimacy, and state weakness) grew more abundant after 1989, the fourth (communal hegemonism) stood roughly constant across both periods, and the last three (revolutionary ideology, aristocratic intransigence, and superpower competition) abated sharply after 1989.

Causes of Civil Wars• Murshed (2001) adds the following economic origins to the complex chain of causative factors culminating in civil wars:

Causes of Civil Wars• Inequality of income and opportunity

should form the basis of a grievance that causes violence and ultimately civil war.

Causes of Civil Wars• Inequality of income and opportunity

should form the basis of a grievance that causes violence and ultimately civil war.

• Agrarian societies with high income inequality - for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset inequality, and are very prone to conflict.

Causes of Civil Wars• Inequality of income and opportunity

should form the basis of a grievance that causes violence and ultimately civil war.

• Agrarian societies with high income inequality - for example El Salvador, Guatemala, the Philippines, and Zimbabwe - have high asset inequality, and are very prone to conflict.

• Economic mismanagement.

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might

indeed drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also play a part.

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed disguised as grievance? Greed might

indeed drive civil war, but poverty and grievances also play a part.

• Two main types of resource exploitation and protracted warfare (warlord competition): point resources and diffuse resources.

Causes of Civil Wars• Conflict as the breakdown of social

contract: State failure.

Causes of Civil Wars• Conflict as the breakdown of social

contract: State failure.

• The role of democracy in internal conflict prevention.

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)– Abundant mineral wealth

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)– Abundant mineral wealth– Ethnicity

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)– Abundant mineral wealth– Ethnicity– Political liberalization

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)– Abundant mineral wealth– Ethnicity– Political liberalization– Creed

Causes of Civil Wars• Greed, creed, and governance in civil war,

1989-99 (De Soysa, 2002)– Abundant mineral wealth– Ethnicity– Political liberalization– Creed– Governance and trade