Carver County Court ServicesRecidivism Data- Juvenile

• Data collected from CSTS, MNCIS, and S-cubed data 2004-2007

• Medium, high, and very high risk samples based on YLS/CMI data

• Medium (10-19), High (20-29), Very High (30+)

• Low risk data based only upon administrative case status

Low Risk Data

• CSTS queries based on “Low” supervision level (Administrative status)

• Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed, and MNCIS

• Time intervals up to 18 months

• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated

Recidivism (Percentage) N= 54

9.3%

22.2%

27.8%31.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1

Time Frame

Per

cent

age 6 month

12 month

18 month

24 month

Recidivism (Offense Type) N=21

14

4

01

2

02468

10121416

1

Offense Type

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es DWI/Chemical Related

Other Traffic

Assault/CSC

Property

Other

Recidivism (Offense Level)

20

0 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1

Offense Level

Num

ber

of O

ffen

ses

Misdemeanor

Gross Misdemeanor

Felony

Medium Risk Data

• Sample generated randomly produced offenders with risk scores of 10 through 19

• Recidivism data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCIS

• Time intervals up to 18 months

• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated

Recidivism (Percentage)

13.0%

21.7%

47.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1

Time Frame

Per

cent

age 6 month

12 month

18 month

Recidivism (Offense Type)

8

3

01

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

1

Offense Type

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es DWI/Chemical Related

Other Traffic

Assault/CSC

Property

Other

Recidivism (Offense Level)

15

0 002468

10121416

1

Offense Level

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es

Misdemeanor

Gross Misdemeanor

Felony

High Risk Data

• Random sample generated and produced offenders with risk scores from 20-29

• Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCIS

• Time intervals up to 18 months

• Recidivism percentage, offense type, and offense level calculated

Recidivism (Percentage) N=31

29.0%

38.7%

51.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1

Time Frame

Per

cent

age 6 month

12 month

18 month

Recidivism (Offense Type) N=52

19

86

12

7

0

5

10

15

20

1

Offense Type

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es DWI/Chemical Related

Other Traffic

Assault/CSC

Property

Other

Recidivism (Offense Level)

38

6 8

05

10152025303540

1

Offense Level

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es

Misdemeanor

Gross Misdemeanor

Felony

Very High Risk DataVery High Risk Data

Random sample generated and Random sample generated and produced offenders with risk scores produced offenders with risk scores 30+30+

Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed Data collected from CSTS, S-cubed and MNCISand MNCIS

Time intervals up to 18 monthsTime intervals up to 18 months Recidivism percentage, offense type, Recidivism percentage, offense type,

and offense level calculated and offense level calculated

Recidivism (Percentage) N=19

38.1%

66.7%

78.9%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

1

Time Frame

Per

cent

age 6 month

12 month

18 month

Recidivism (Offense Type) N=46

18

6 5

13

4

0

5

10

15

20

1

Offense Type

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es

DWI/Chemical Related

Other Traffic

Assault/CSC

Property

Other

Recidivism (Offense Level) N=46

40

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

1

Offense Level

Num

ber

of O

ffens

es

Misdemeanor

Gross Misdemeanor

Felony

Combined DataCombined Data

• Data in total was analyzed according Data in total was analyzed according to trends (risk principle), offense to trends (risk principle), offense level, and offense typelevel, and offense type

The Risk PrincipleThe Risk Principle

As risk goes up, so does recidivismAs risk goes up, so does recidivism The most heavily researched The most heavily researched

principle of EBP (Latessa)principle of EBP (Latessa) Risk principle proven true with our Risk principle proven true with our

populationpopulation

6 month Recidivism Results By Risk

9.3%

29.0%

38.1%

13.0%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%

Low Medium High VeryHigh

Risk Level

Per

cent

age

of

Rec

idiv

ism

Recidivism Trend

12 month Recidivism Results By Risk

38.7%

66.7%

21.7%

22.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Low Medium High Very High

Risk Level

Perc

enta

ge o

f Rec

idiv

ism

Recidivism Trend

18 month Recidivism Results by Risk

71.4%

51.6%

47.8%

27.8%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%

Low Medium High Very High

Risk Level

Perc

enta

ge o

f Re

cidi

vism

Recidivism Trend

Recidivism by Offense Level (All risk levels combined)

85%

8%7%

Misd

Gsmd

Felony

Recidivism by Offense Type (All risk levels combined)

47%

10%9%

21%

13%DWI/Chemical Related

Other Traffic

Assault/CSC

Property

Other

Recidivism- General N=127

44.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

1

Time Frame

18 m

onth

reci

divi

sm

18 month recidivism

Summary of DataSummary of Data

Risk principle was proven trueRisk principle was proven true Most re-offenses were chemical-Most re-offenses were chemical-

related (mostly Underage related (mostly Underage Consumption)Consumption)

An overwhelming majority of re-An overwhelming majority of re-offenses were misdemeanorsoffenses were misdemeanors

Medium and higher risk offenders are Medium and higher risk offenders are more assaultive in terms of more assaultive in terms of reoffendingreoffending