Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery - e … · PERU PHILIPPINES COLOMBIA INTERGROUP FINANCIAL...
Transcript of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery - e … · PERU PHILIPPINES COLOMBIA INTERGROUP FINANCIAL...
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Edouard CARMIGNAC – Chief Investment Officer
Frédéric LEROUX 25
Laurent CHEBANIER Country risk analyst 16
Julien CHERON Quantitative analyst 12
Rose OUAHBA 19
Charles ZERAH 19
Carlos GALVIS 16
Keith NEY 15
Pierre VERLÉ 10
Muhammed YESILHARK 11
Malte HEININGER 8
Huseyin YASAR 6
Saiyid HAMID 8
Simon PICKARD 22
Xavier HOVASSE 16
Haiyan LI-LABBÉ 14
Edward COLE 15
David Y. PARK 10
Michael HULME 17
Simon LOVAT 12
Vincent STEENMAN Industry 9
Antoine COLONNA Consumption 22
Matthew WILLIAMS Finance 20
Tim JAKSLAND Innovation 23
Didier SAINT-GEORGES 27
Sandra CROWL 23
Jean MÉDECIN 20
Team Leader Fund Manager Analyst Years of experience
An experienced management team
CROSS ASSET
INTERNATIONAL BONDS
EUROPEAN EQUITIES
EMERGING EQUITIES
COMMODITY EQUITIES
SECTOR ANALYSTS
Global Research Coordinator
MIC
MULTI-STRATEGY Pierre-Edouard
BONENFANT 3 Yassine
BASRAOUI 6
PORTFOLIO ADVISORS
Obe EJIKEME Quantitative equity analyst 11
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EDWARD COLE 15-year experience
The Emerging Markets Team
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
Head of Emerging Markets Team – Portfolio Manager
Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2000
SIMON PICKARD 22-year experience
Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
Covers Latin America Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2008
Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
Covers Asia ex-Greater China Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2007
Analyst Covers Greater China Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2011
DAVID YOUNG PARK 10-year experience
HAIYAN LI-LABBÉ 14-year experience
Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine
Covers Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2013
XAVIER HOVASSE 16-year experience
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A “Small” Team and Low Turnover Means:
A Big Commitment to On-The-Ground Research
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
David Park
Xavier Hovasse
Haiyan Li-Labbé
Simon Pickard
Antoine Colonna
Matthew Williams
Fund Managers
Analysts
Edward Cole
Edouard Carmignac
Muhammed Yesilhark
MEXICO
COLOMBIA
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
SOUTH AFRICA
RUSSIA
TURKEY
U.A.E QATAR
INDIA
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN
PHILIPPINES
CHINA
THAILAND VIETNAM
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Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
Within Carmignac Gestion Emerging Markets Funds Range
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING PATRIMOINE
CARMIGNAC EMERGENTS
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING DISCOVERY
EMERGING MARKET DIVERSIFIED
EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES
A “frontier” markets exposure: 36% currently
Assets: 309.15 Million €
A small and midcap fund: average weighted market cap of EUR 3.3 bn
55 positions
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90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
Source: Carmignac Gestion at 30/01/2015 From 01/01/2013 the equity index reference indicators are calculated net dividends reinvested Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns
*50% MSCI EM SmallCap (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM MidCap (EUR), (Reinvested net dividends, rebalanced quarterly)
Reference Indicator* +36.68%
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery A EUR acc
+48.51%
Performance of the Fund (5Y)
7 7 7
Uneven GDP growth in Emerging Markets
Source: Carmignac Gestion – Interantional Monetary Fund April 2014
2014 GDP Growth Forecasts
Less than 0 Between 0 and 1 Between 1 and 2 Between 2and 4 Between 4 and 6 Above or equal 6
DM
EM
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Process is Both Top-Down and Bottom-Up
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
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MACRO / THEMATIC VIEWS FORMED BY:
Daily investment meeting with whole team
Scheduled meetings as well as constant interaction
Close interaction with cross-asset and fixed income teams
Access to independent macro analysis
MICRO / BOTTOM-UP VIEWS FORMED BY:
“Dual coverage” of major parts of our universe
EM team analyst coverage : analyst responsibility is geographic
Close interaction with sector analysts, formal monthly sector meetings
Access to alternative information sources
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Risk Analysis Specific to Regions and Countries
Proprietary database and indicators
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
BANKING SYSTEM RISKS
EXTERNAL VULNERABILITIES
GROWTH DYNAMICS
THINGS WE ARE LOOKING FOR
INFLATION DYNAMICS
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+ +
What we look for an Investment
Source: Carmignac Gestion, February 2015
INVESTMENT = ( MACRO UNDERPENETRATION STRONG FCF )
MACRO
UNDERPENETRATION
STRONG FCF
The Fund looks for strong macro fundamentals (growth outlook, current account, currency, inflation)
Underpenetrated sectors & long term growth
Companies with a strong FCF profile i.e capital light business that can self finance its growth
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+ + +
+
Key Valuation & Country Metrics
COUNTRY METRICS
=
OVERALL SCORE POSITION SIZING
CURRENT ACCOUNT GROWTH INFLATION
CURRENT ACCOUNT
GROWTH
INFLATION Looking at growth dynamics and its sub-components (Consumption, Invest, Exp, Stocks, Govt)
Analysis of inflation dynamics and sub-components (food, transport, clothing, health, housing)
The analysis looks at CA surplus or deficit, how it is financed and whether it is sustainable
VALUATION METRICS CROCI + FCF(Y) AFTER M.CAPEX CASH REALIZATION RATIO + + +
CROCI
FCF(Y) AFTER M.CAPEX
CASH REALIZATION RATIO
Free cash flow yield after maintenance Capex
Operational Cash flow / Net income
Cash return on capital invested
EXT. VULNERABILITIES
EXTERNAL VULNERABILITIES Looking at Net international investment positions, FX reserves, external debt
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Key Features and Attributes
DISCOVERY
TURNOVER
LONG TERM
EXPOSURE
Pick the long term winners from the small and mid-cap space with a third invested in Frontier
The fund has a proper five year holding period with a low turnover of 20% on 50 to 60 stocks
Above quarterly or annual earnings, the Funds look beyond that at the long term
The Fund aims to give investors EM exposure without leveraging on cash exposure
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+
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING DISCOVERY
Source: Carmignac Gestion – February 2015
FUND BEHAVIOR Provided most of its alpha through downside protection in the 2011 & 2013 bear markets
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Key Structural Guidelines
LIQUIDITY
CAPITAL LIGHT BUSINESS
COUNTRY ALLOCATION
=
+
+
+
Source: Carmignac Gestion – February 2015
SECTOR ALLOCATION
+
Liquidity is a key criterion - more than 50% of the portfolio can be liquidated in 3 days
I.e. negative working capital business such as distribution, insurance, convenience stores etc
Reflects investments in underpenetrated sectors + 5 to 10y specific growth stories
We have a preference for economies with surpluses in their balance of payments.
PICK THE RIGHT : + + COUNTRIES SECTORS STOCKS
COUNTRY LIMIT The fund has a 15% limit on country level deviation from benchmark
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Chinese « New Normal » & Economic Momentum
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
CHINESE « NEW NORMAL » 4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13% BETWEEN 6% AND 7% GROWTH
BETTER GROWTH QUALITY
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC REFORMS
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NO HARD-LENDING
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 % PROPERTY FAI YOY% GROWTH
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12m LENDING RATE
CPI YoY%
LENDING AND INFLATION RATES
7%
6%
OFFICIAL GROWTH
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Credit Underpenetration Theme
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP
We have three banks in the Fund:
PERU
PHILIPPINES
COLOMBIA
INTERGROUP FINANCIAL
PHILIPPINE NTL BANK
BANCO DAVIVIENDA
Our investments in banks are a perfect illustration of the underpenetration themes we are looking for:
LOW PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP
CREDIT UNDERPENETRATION
LOW DEPOSITS
10 YEAR GROWTH STORY AHEAD =
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India: Leveraging the Investment Rebound
Source: Company Data, Deutsche Bank AG, 4 April 2014 + SocGen 2014
SHREE CEMENT - FCF GENERATION
INDIA
11.6% OUR FUND
7.9% BENCHMARK in
MODI’S ELECTION
REFORMS PROCESS
IMPROVING EXTERNAL
IMBALANCES
SHREE CEMENT
Proxy to economic growth
Long term drivers intact: population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, etc.
Competitive advantage and most attractive prospects
Right location (present in Northern India) + Right timing + Cost Leadership
STRONG FCF GROWTH
INFRASTURCTURE PLAN
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
Capital expenditure (INR mn) Free cash flows before Capex (INR mn)
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$50bn infrastructure project
Project which is 15% of GDP to build roads across rough terrrain requiring a big investment
Biggest position in Colombia
Retail bank doing SME lending and exploiting low mortagage penetration
Colombia: One of our Favourite Markets
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
Colombia India Russia Brazil China
Private Debt to GDP
COLOMBIA
7.8% OUR FUND
0.7% BENCHMARK in
BANCO DAVIVIENDA CEMENTOS ARGOS + CEMEX LATAM
SANTOS REELECTION
PEACE PROCESS
GROWTH & INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENT
COLOMBIA: 4-LANE MOTORWAY TO BE BUILT (KILOMETRES)
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Mexico: Reforms starting to Bear Fruits
Source: Carmignac Gestion,30/01/2015
MEXICO
9.8% OUR FUND
3.5% BENCHMARK in
FIBRA TERRAFINA
LABOR MARKET AND EDUCATION
REFORM
TAX REFORM ENERGY,
FINANCIAL, TELECOM REFORM
BIGGEST POSITION OF THE FUND
ATTRACTIVE SECTOR
OFFER A HIGH YIELD DIVIDEND
SOME CURRENCY HEDGE (USD RENTAL REVENUES)
DIVERSIFIED EXPOSURE TO THE MEXICAN ECONOMY
EXPOSURE MOSTLY TO THE INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT
MEXICAN EXPORTS % PIB
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Manufactured Exports % GDP
Oil Exports % GDP
30%
4%
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Vietnam Dairy Products
Our Frontier Markets Exposure LATAM
EEMEA
COLOMBIA
PERU Alicorp, Inretail Peru, Intergroup Financial
Almacenes, B.Davivienda, Cementos A, Cemex L, Gran Tierre, Terpel
SAUDI ARABIA
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
KENYA East African Breweries, Safaricom
Jarir Marketing
Aramex, Emaar Malls
NIGERIA Guinness Nigeria
SLOVENIA Krka DD
ASIA
PHILIPPINES
SRI LANKA John Keells
Holcim, Ictsi Int’l Container, LT Group, Phillippine Ntl Bank
VIETNAM
7.8
3.3
0.9
5.1
3.7
0.7
1.1
9.2
2.0
1.6
35.5% TOTAL FRONTIER MARKETS
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A Balanced and Diversified Thematic Portfolio
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
ENERGY AND MATERIALS
FINANCE
LEISURE AND AUTOMOBILE
INDUSTRY
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER GOODS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
12.2%
19.9%
12.7%
11.4%
13.8%
23.6%
6.2%
BREAKDOWN AS % 31/12/2014
C
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C
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F
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S
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V
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Geographic Exposure
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
3.2
BRAZIL
11.6
INDIA
2.4
TURKEY
2.8
INDONESIA
2.6 SOUTH AFRICA
9.0 TAIWAN
7.8 SOUTH KOREA
0.9
THAILAND
Geographic exposure as % of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
2.8 CHILI
7.8 COLOMBIA
CHINA
5.4
3.3 PERU
9.2 PHILIPPINES
1.1 SLOVENIA
2.0
SRI LANKA
1.6 VIETNAM
Frontier Markets Traditional Markets
0.9 SAUDI ARABIA
0.7 NIGERIA
3.7 KENYA
5.1
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES
4.4
HONG KONG/ MACAO
9.8 MEXICO
RUSSIA 1.9
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Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery: Top 10 Holdings
Source: Carmignac Gestion, 30/01/2015
FIBRA TERRAFINA
SINA
BHARTI INFRATEL
SHREE CEMENT
ARAMEX
LT GROUP
CLICKS
Mexico
China
India
India
United Arab Emirates
Philippines
South Africa
GIANT MANUFACTURING
PHILIPPINE NATIONAL BANK
SA SA
Taiwan
Philippines
Hong Kong
Financials
Information Technology
Telecommunication Services
Materials
Industrials
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Consumer Discretionary
3.94
3.91
3.19
3.03
2.98
2.75
2.65
2.30
2.29
2.29
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Country Sector % Assets
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Disclaimer
Dieser Präsentation ist für professionelle Kunden bestimmt. Dieser Präsentation darf ohne vorherige Genehmigung der Verwaltungsgesellschaft weder ganz noch teilweise reproduziert, verbreitet oder weitergegeben werden. Es stellt weder ein Zeichnungsangebot noch eine Anlageberatung dar. In dieser Präsentation enthaltene Informationen können unvollständig sein und ohne Vorankündigung geändert werden. Skala von 1 (geringstes Risiko) bis 7 (höchstes Risiko); Risiko 1 kann nicht mit einer risikofreien Anlage gleich gesetzt werden. Dieser Indikator kann sich im Laufe der Zeit verändern. Wertentwicklungen der Vergangenheit lassen keine Rückschlüsse auf zukünftige Wertverläufe zu. Die Kosten sind in den Wertentwicklungen enthalten. Für bestimmte Personen oder Länder kann der Zugang zu den Fonds beschränkt sein. Sie dürfen insbesondere weder direkt noch indirekt einer „US-Person“ wie in der US-amerikanischen „S Regulation“ und/oder im FATCA definiert bzw. für Rechnung einer solchen US-Person angeboten oder verkauft werden. Die Fonds sind ist mit einem Kapitalverlustrisiko verbunden. Die Risiken und Kosten sind in den Wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen (WAI) / im Kundeninformationsdokument (KID) beschrieben. Die Prospekte, WAI / KID und Jahresberichte der Fonds stehen auf der Website www.carmignac.de / www.carmignac.at zur Verfügung und sind auf Anforderung bei der Verwaltungsgesellschaft bzw. in Österreich bei der Ersten Bank der österreichischen Sparkassen AG OE 01980533/ Produktmanagement Wertpapiere, Petersplatz 7, 1010 Wien, erhältlich. Die Wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen / die Kundeninformationsdokumente sind dem Zeichner vor der Zeichnung auszuhändigen. Copyright: In dieser Präsentation enthaltene Daten sind ausschließliches Eigentum der jeweiligen Eigentümer laut Angabe auf jeder Seite.
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