Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S.,...
Transcript of Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit · 2000 ADR Grown By CPI Total U.S.,...
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Caribbean Hotel Investment Conference and Operations Summit
8 November 2012
Carter Wilson Director, STR Analytics
Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, “STR”) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
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Overview
(PARRIS WILL FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CARIBBEAN ISLANDS)
A Quick Global Glance
U.S. Overview
How the Caribbean Looks
U.S. Projections
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
A Quick Global Glance
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
RevPAR % Change: Continents and Subcontinents
*All calculated in USD
North America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 6.0% 8.0% 6.5%
Europe 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 3.1% 12.5% -5.0%
Central America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 5.4% 0.7% -1.1%
Caribbean 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 2.4% 7.4% 11.2%
Asia Pacific 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012
17.5% 8.7% 3.1%
South America 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012
19.1% 19.2% -1.9%
Middle East & Africa 2010 2011 Sep YTD 2012 2.2% -2.3% 6.6%
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9%
35%
27%
29%
Sample rooms
Eastern Northern Southern Western
Tier RevPAR % Change Upper $90.65 -4.9%
Middle $76.08 -5.6%
Lower $65.31 -8.7%
European Regional Overview September YTD 2012
Region RevPAR % Change Total $90.44 -5.0% Eastern $69.01 -1.4% Northern $91.48 -1.3% Southern $85.44 -8.8% Western $100.09 -6.8%
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U.S. Overview
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Total U.S. - Key Statistics September YTD 2012 For the 52,400 hotels in the U.S.:
Measure Value % Change Room Supply 1.3 bn 0.4% Room Demand 834.4 mn 3.0% Occupancy 63.0% 2.6% ADR $105.94 4.2% RevPAR $66.79 6.9% Room Revenue $88.4 bn 7.3%
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average – 1989 to September 2012
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Supply % Change Demand % Change
Oct ‘91 -0.9%
June ‘89 5.2%
Jan ‘89 4.5%
Mar ‘02 -4.6%
Aug ‘06 -0.2%
Aug ‘09 -7.1%
Feb ‘11 7.7%
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases
95
100
105
110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total U.S., ADR $, 12 MMA 1/08 – 9/12
Apr ‘10 $97
Sep ‘08 $108
Dec ‘11 $102
+4.9%
-10%
19 Months
19 Months
Sep ‘12 $105
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F
Nominal ADR 2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
Total U.S., ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
$85
$101
$104
$85
$107 $109
$107
$117
2013F
Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach
2007 ADR Grown By CPI
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Top 25 Markets Versus All Others Key Performance Indicators Percent Change September YTD 2012
0.6
3.7 3.1
4.5
7.8 8.4
0.3
2.6 2.3
3.8
6.2 6.6
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Revenue
Top 25 All Others
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RevPAR Recovery Map
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How the Caribbean Looks (PARRIS WILL FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CARIBBEAN ISLANDS)
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Resort Destination Areas Occupancy September YTD 2011 vs. 2012
77.8
70.9 67.9 67.3 66.4
65.2 60.1
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80 2011 2012
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Resort Destination Markets Occupancy Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012
Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii
-3 -4.7 -4.5 -2
4.2 6.9
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
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Resort Destination Areas ADR (USD) September YTD 2011 vs. 2012
202.9
185.4 176.0
121.0 119.2 115.7 114.3
$90
$110
$130
$150
$170
$190
$210 2011 2012
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Resort Destination Markets ADR Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012
Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii
9.2
-10.3 -12.8
4.4 3.1 4
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Resort Destination Areas RevPAR (USD) September YTD 2011 vs. 2012
157.8
120.9 119.5
85.8 80.2 75.9 69.6
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
$170 2011 2012
2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
Resort Destination Markets RevPAR Percent Change 2007 to September YTD 2012
Caribbean compared to Orlando, Florida Keys, Phuket, Mauritius, Miami, Total U.S., and Hawaii
6
-14.5 -16.8
2.4 7.4 11.2
-40 -30 -20 -10
0 10 20 30 40 50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
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U.S. Projections
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Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)
2012 - 2013 Outlook
2012 Forecast
2013 Forecast
Supply 0.5% 0.9%
Demand 2.6% 1.2%
Occupancy 2.1% 0.3%
ADR 4.4% 4.6%
RevPAR 6.5% 4.9%
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Market Cycle Chronology –
Caribbean
Dec 2006
Feb 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2008
May 2011 Sep 2012