Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World
description
Transcript of Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World
![Page 1: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World
The Incredible Unpredictable Plant
Ankur R DesaiUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
CPEP Spring 2009
![Page 2: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Acknowledgments• Brent Helliker, U. Pennsylvania• Joe Berry, Carnegie Institution for Science• Paul Moorcroft, Harvard U.• Arlyn Andrews, NOAA ESRL• Ben Sulman, AOS• ChEAS and Ameriflux investigators,
technicians, students• U.S. Forest Service Northern Research
Station, Rhinelander, WI• Funders: DOE NICCR, DOE TCP, NASA
Carbon Cycle, USDA
![Page 3: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Conclusions• Globally
– Significant uncertainty in trajectory of future land carbon sink (source?)
– Ecosystem models can’t capture observed interannual variability and disagree with inverse models
• Regionally– Boreal forests show increased decomposition in
response to autumn warming (Piao et al., 2008)– Temperate forests show increased uptake in response
to spring warming (Richardson et al., submitted)– Boreal-temperate transition forests appear neutral
WRT spring and show increased uptake in warmer autumns, but are also strongly sensitive to regional hydrology (Desai et al., in prep)
![Page 4: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Let’s get on the same page
![Page 5: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Let’s get on the same page
![Page 6: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
State of the Carbon Cycle• SoCCR report (CCSP SAP 2.2), 2007
![Page 7: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Terms• NEE = Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2
– Positive = source to atmosphere• GPP = Gross photosynthetic production• RE = Respiration of ecosystem• NEE = RE – GPP
• IAV = Interannual variability of NEE
![Page 8: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Friedlingstein et al., 2006
![Page 9: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The future is hazy• Sitch et al., 2008
![Page 10: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Pick a model, any model…• Thornton et al., in prep
![Page 11: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Kinda depressing?
![Page 12: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Xiao et al., in press
![Page 13: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Jacobson et al., in prep
![Page 14: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Modeling Interannual variability
• Ricciuto et al. (submitted)
![Page 15: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Richardson et al., submitted
![Page 16: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Piao et al., 2008
![Page 17: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Subboreal IAV
![Page 18: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Desai et al., in prep
![Page 19: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Motivation• Interannual variation (IAV) in carbon fluxes
from land to atmosphere is significant at the ecosystem scale, but we know little as we scale to the region– Regional fluxes are hard to observe and model but
we’ve made progress– Still: IAV (years-decade) is currently poorly
observed and modeled, while hourly, seasonal, and even successional (century) are better
– Key to understanding how climate change affects ecosystems and vice versa comes from succesfully modeling IAV
– Subboreal regions likely to be strongly impacted by climate change
![Page 20: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Succesional vs IAV• courtesy of H. Margolis (2009)
![Page 21: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Role of Observations• courtesy of K.J. Davis (2009)
![Page 22: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Climate Drivers of Carbon Flux
• Temperature• Precipitation• Radiation • [CO2]
![Page 23: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Climate Drivers of IAV• Temperature -> Phenology
• Precipitation -> Water table
• Radiation -> Light quality• [CO2] -> Acclimation
![Page 24: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Questions• In temperate-boreal transition regions:
– What is regional IAV of NEE?
– What are the climatic controls on it?
– How can these findings be used to improve carbon cycle and climate prediction?
![Page 25: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Region
![Page 26: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Region
![Page 27: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Phenology and water table?• Kucharik and Serbin, in prep show:
– Growing season length increasing by 1-4 weeks in past 50 years• Shoulder season warming > mid-summer
warming, especially in minimum temperatures• Effect on spring growing degree days < autumn
freeze date– Most of Wisconsin has gotten 10-15% more
precipitation in past 50 years, except in N. Wisconsin, where summers are getting drier• This drying signal is seen in water table and lake
level observations
![Page 28: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Kucharik and Serbin, in prep
![Page 29: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Water Table• Sulman et al.
(2009)– Water table
declines seen regionally and appear related to precipitation trends
![Page 30: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Shrub Wetland Flux Response
• Sulman et al (2009)
![Page 31: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Lake Water Levels• Stow et al., 2008
![Page 32: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Correlation?
![Page 33: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Regional Flux Tools• Forward
– IFUSE – Interannual Flux-tower Upscaling Sensitivity Experiment
– ED – Ecosystem Demography model• Inverse
– EBL – Equilibrium Boundary Layer– CT - CarbonTracker
![Page 34: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Forward: IFUSE• Use ~1-km fetch eddy covariance flux
towers to sample regional flux• Estimate parameters for a simple
ecosystem model that includes phenology– Markov Chain Monte Carlo– Half-daily flux observations
• Scale model by land cover and age maps
• Desai et al (2008, in prep), Buffam et al (in prep)
![Page 35: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Fluxnet
![Page 36: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
How eddy covariance works
![Page 37: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Region
![Page 38: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Typical data• Lost Creek shrub wetland, N. WI
![Page 39: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Bunches of data
![Page 40: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
OptimizationHOURLY
IAV
![Page 41: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Magic
![Page 42: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Forward: ED Model• Desai et al (2007), Moorcroft et al
(2001), Albani et al (2006)
![Page 43: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
ED Model Parameterization• Parameterized by Forest Inventory
Analysis
![Page 44: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Inverse: EBL• Helliker et al (2004), Bakwin et al (2004)
– Assume boundary layer ventilates with free troposphere on synoptic timescale (days-weeks)
– Goal is to estimate ρW for multi-week averages
![Page 45: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
A tall tower
![Page 46: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Inverse: CarbonTracker• Estimate fluxes from network of
concentration
![Page 47: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Inverse: CarbonTracker• Peters et al (2007) Nested grid
Ensemble Kalman Filter
![Page 48: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Results: Monthly
![Page 49: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Results: Annual
![Page 50: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Results: IAV
![Page 51: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Results: ControlsAnnual Winter Spring Summer FallLeafonLeafoffGSLAirT AirT AirT AirT AirTSoilT SoilT SoilT SoilT SoilTPAR PAR PAR PAR PARPrecip Precip Precip Precip PrecipVPD VPD VPD VPD VPDSoilM SoilM SoilM SoilM SoilMWaterTable WaterTable WaterTable WaterTable WaterTableCO2NAO NAO NAO NAO NAONINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4PDO PDO PDO PDO PDOPNA PNA PNA PNA PNASOI SOI SOI SOI SOI
![Page 52: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Results: 1-year LagAnnual Winter Spring Summer FallLeafonLeafoffGSLAirT AirT AirT AirT AirTSoilT SoilT SoilT SoilT SoilTPAR PAR PAR PAR PARPrecip Precip Precip Precip PrecipVPD VPD VPD VPD VPDSoilM SoilM SoilM SoilM SoilMWaterTable WaterTable WaterTable WaterTable WaterTableCO2NAO NAO NAO NAO NAONINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4 NINO3.4PDO PDO PDO PDO PDOPNA PNA PNA PNA PNASOI SOI SOI SOI SOI
![Page 53: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Controls: Phenology
![Page 54: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Controls: Phenology
![Page 55: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Controls: Hydrology
![Page 56: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Answers?• In temperate-boreal transition regions:
– What is regional IAV of NEE?• -160 gC m-2 yr-1 +/- 112 gC m-2 yr-1
• Consistent trends across some years– What are the climatic controls on it?
• Growing season (autumn), water table, some climatic teleconnections may exist
– How can these findings be used to improve carbon cycle and climate prediction?• Land-atmosphere models should couple hydrology
and investigate models of leaf phenology• Wetlands are poorly represented
![Page 57: Carbon Cycling in a Warmer, Greener World](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062520/5681641d550346895dd5da06/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Thanks• More green monsters…