Carbon, Capture

And Storage

Capture and StorageCapture and Storage

Not quite this simple:Not quite this simple:

Carbon StorageCarbon StorageWhat Can actually be deployed?What Can actually be deployed?

Stabilization ConceptStabilization Concept

We can’t correct the past but maybe we We can’t correct the past but maybe we can target some level at which COcan target some level at which CO22

reaches a constant valuereaches a constant value Pre-industrialized value: 280 ppmPre-industrialized value: 280 ppm Currently Value: 388 ppmCurrently Value: 388 ppm Highest in Last 450,000 years: 310 ppmHighest in Last 450,000 years: 310 ppm 2 degrees C increase: 450 ppm2 degrees C increase: 450 ppm

Stabilization ContinuedStabilization Continued

• Stabilizing atmospheric concentration is more physically important than limiting annual emission levels

• Allows one to plan for the rest of the century a ton you put in now, means a ton you can’t put in later

• Shared planetary greenhouse gas emissions budget

• As emission space dwindles, emission permit prices should rise

ButBut

• Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas Methane is becoming important

• Current CO2 trajectory reaches 720 ppm by 2100

• Stabilizing at 550 ppm (by 2100) requires reducing coal usage by about a factor of 3 relative to current trend CHINA CHINA CHINA

Options for Global Energy SystemOptions for Global Energy System

• Carbon Dioxide capture and storage (CSS) may play a pivotal role if we plan to implement it. This may allow CHINA CHINA CHINA to continue what its doing

CSS potentialCSS potential

• Plenty of theoretical storage capacity but this is not evenly distributed around the world

• If no access to natural storage reservoir then this might compel countries to build different infrastructure

• Baseload coal fired power plants and coal-to-liquids facilities are the largest potential market for CSS

Geological Options for CSS

• Depleted oil and gas reservoirs

• Deep saline formations

• Deep “unmineable” coal seams

• Deep saline filled basalt formations

• Basic Mechanism is Direct injection

• Ocean Sequestration

World Wide Capacity 11,000 World Wide Capacity 11,000 GigatonsGigatons

But unevenly distributed relative to load But unevenly distributed relative to load centers (China, Japan, Korea)centers (China, Japan, Korea)

Canada, US and Australia are goodCanada, US and Australia are good

Required CSS Scale is MassiveRequired CSS Scale is Massive

There are currently 8100 individual point There are currently 8100 individual point source COsource CO2 2 emitters – most of these are emitters – most of these are

power plantspower plants

Emission Contributors

Coal is a good target

CCS Potential

450 ppm stabilization requires 2200 GT of storage or roughly 1/5 of the world’s potential this is enormous!

Regional Ratios of Production to local storage show immense variation

An Economic ChainAn Economic Chain

Natural Gas Fired electricity produces about 1 Natural Gas Fired electricity produces about 1 lbs of Carbon Dioxide per KWH generatedlbs of Carbon Dioxide per KWH generated

Assume 5 cents per KWH for competitive price Assume 5 cents per KWH for competitive price to consumerto consumer

1 Ton of CO1 Ton of CO2 2 is then 2000 KWH which is 100$ is then 2000 KWH which is 100$ Current injection prices are about 60 -80$ per Current injection prices are about 60 -80$ per

ton.ton. This is a therefore difficult economic model to This is a therefore difficult economic model to

make work. 2015 Goal is $10 per ton; what make work. 2015 Goal is $10 per ton; what economy of scale is there?economy of scale is there?

Worse Still is Down Turn IN Carbon Worse Still is Down Turn IN Carbon MarketMarket

The Price ProblemThe Price Problem

Current price of CarbonCurrent price of Carbon

Current price is about $19.50 per ton for carbon. Thus, as of February 2010 it essentially costs 4-5 times more to put Carbon in the ground than in the atmosphere. This is the essential financial reality!

Cost is not the only Cost is not the only obstacleobstacle

Goal: Capture 100% of a large power Goal: Capture 100% of a large power plants emissions and store them for plants emissions and store them for 50 years?50 years?

WowWow How many injector wells are needed How many injector wells are needed

and what is their spacing?and what is their spacing? Can same injectors be used for 50 Can same injectors be used for 50

years?years? Does the reservoir leak?Does the reservoir leak?

ConclusionsConclusions

CSS has high potential and does CSS has high potential and does represent a direct climate-change represent a direct climate-change mitigation technologymitigation technology

CSS economic model is not good CSS economic model is not good unless significant fines/penalty for unless significant fines/penalty for total country emissions are enactedtotal country emissions are enacted

The next 5-10 years are a critical The next 5-10 years are a critical window to build pilot projects to gain window to build pilot projects to gain real world experience and assess real world experience and assess scaled up feasibilityscaled up feasibility

Conclusions IIConclusions II

Clearly the electric power sector is the Clearly the electric power sector is the prime target. Production of electricity prime target. Production of electricity and in situ injection could determine and in situ injection could determine sites of future LNG facilities.sites of future LNG facilities.

But But what is wisest? Investing what is wisest? Investing limited resources in CSS or ramping limited resources in CSS or ramping up other sustainable energies (wind, up other sustainable energies (wind, solar, biofuel, hydrogen (from wind solar, biofuel, hydrogen (from wind and solar)) and solar)) this is a very tough call this is a very tough call to make right nowto make right now