CAPITAL MARKETS DAY - s3.turkcell.com.tr...This presentation contains statements that are forward...
Transcript of CAPITAL MARKETS DAY - s3.turkcell.com.tr...This presentation contains statements that are forward...
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY November 9, 2015 / London
2
NOTICE
This presentation contains statements that are forward looking, in particular our guidance and estimates for
the 2015 to 2018 period. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are
subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially due to factors discussed
in this presentation, in our recent press releases and our most recent annual report, in particular in the Risk
Factors section of Turkcell’s most recent Form 20F and in other reports and filings with the US Securities
and Exchange Commission. We undertake no duty to update or revise any forward looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
This presentation includes business and market information derived from public sources and our own
estimates that we believe is indicative of trends in our business and markets, but that has not necessarily
been prepared under our generally applied accounting standards and has been subject to adjustments, and
thus should not be relied upon as conclusive. This presentation also contains Non-GAAP financial measures,
notably EBITDA, which is not a measure of financial performance under IFRS and is not a substitute for net
earnings (loss) as a measure of performance.
Please note that all financial data are consolidated whereas non-financial data are unconsolidated unless
otherwise specified.
AGENDA
TURKCELL GROUP STRATEGY OVERVIEW
TURKCELL GROUP FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
TURKCELL TURKEY POSITIONING
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
CORPORATE BUSINESS REVIEW
4
MURAT DOĞAN ERDEN - EVP- FINANCE
Serving as the Chief Financial Officer since 2013
Prior to this position, he was the Acting Chief Financial Officer and Head of Treasury and Risk Management
BURAK SEVİLENGÜL - EVP- MARKETING
Appointed Executive Vice President of Marketing in April 2015
Prior to this position, he was the Chief Consumer Marketing and Sales Officer
İLKER KURUÖZ - EVP- TECHNOLOGY
Serving as the Executive Vice President of Technology since December 2013
Previously, he was the Chief Information and Communications Officer of Turkcell
KAAN TERZİOĞLU - CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
Appointed Turkcell’s Chief Executive Officer on April 1, 2015
Prior to this position in Turkcell, he was Vice President at the Cisco Systems. He was a member of
Board of Directors at Akbank, Aksigorta A.Ş., Teknosa İç ve Dış Ticaret A.Ş. and Carrefoursa A.Ş.
TUĞRUL CORA - SVP- CORPORATE SALES
Appointed as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Sales since July 2015
Prior to this position, he was Director of Strategic & Major Accounts Management
MANAGEMENT- PRESENTERS
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DOĞUŞ KURAN - SVP - CUSTOMER SERVICES
Appointed Senior Vice President of Customer Services Function as of October 2015
Prior to this position, he was the partner at the Accenture Turkey Office responsible for the
telecommunication, media and technology sectors
SERHAT DEMİR - EVP - LEGAL AND REGULATION
Appointed the Executive Vice President of Legal and Regulation Function in May 2015
Prior to this position in Turkcell, he was the Director of Legal Affairs at Çalık Holding
MANAGEMENT- PARTICIPANTS
MURAT ERKAN - SVP - RETAIL AND ACTIVE SALES
Appointed Senior Vice President of Retail & Active Sales under Sales Function as of October 2015
Prior to this position, he was Senior Vice President of Home and Consumer Business and the
General Manager of Turkcell Superonline
M. Kaan Terzioğlu CEO, Turkcell Group
STRATEGY
OVERVIEW
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TALKING POINTS
1 The Market
The Plan 2
And The Outlook 3
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Convergence
• Fixed & mobile and Telecom & Media
• Untapped potential in Turkey
Regulations
• Challenges vs. opportunities
New Business Areas
• New revenue sources in the digital space through better utilization of the network
Effective Cost Management
• Focus on profitability via innovative approaches
Change in Value Pools
• Shift to digital players in the global TMT sector
• Data’s share is increasing rapidly
• Rapid adoption in the Turkish market
THE MARKET
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CORNERSTONES
CONVERGENCE
INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
POSITIONING IN TURKEY
Converged Communications &
Technology Services
Regional Assets
Globally Relevant Services
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Sustainable Growth
Growing Young Population
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) , International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
GROWING ECONOMY
18.6 19.1 20.3 20.9 21.8 22.8
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13
20
14
20
15
E
20
16
E
20
17
E
20
18
E
12% 2015-2018
GDP Per Capita (PPP)
$ thousand
Share of <30 years old in population As of 2014, %
<30 49%
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THE MARKET
Source: ICTA 1 Smartphone penetration on Turkcell’s network as of Q315
80.9 m Total Subscribers
92% Mobile Penetration
41% Fixed Broadband
Penetration
25% Pay-TV Penetration
49% Smartphone Penetration1
Q214 Q215
Mobile Market Petabyte
Mobile broadband usage
Mobile broadband penetration
37% 45%
62 PB 126 PB
Q214 Q215
Fiber Market Millions
Fiber subscribers
Share of >8Mbps package
31%
65%
1.3 mn 1.6 mn
Q214 Q215
24% 25%
Pay-TV Market Millions
Pay-TV subscribers
Pay-TV penetration
5.3 mn 5.5 mn
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THE MARKET
45.2% 45.8% 45.0% 44.3%
36.0% 35.3% 35.5% 35.6%
18.9% 18.8% 19.5% 20.1%
Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315E
REVENUE SHARE OF MAJOR PLAYERS
Source: ICTA Reports, Operators’ announcements, Q315 is based on internal estimates
Vodafone
Turkcell Turkey
Turk Telekom Group
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TURKCELL GROUP
68.1 million Mobile customers
Fixed customers
1.4 million
Turkey generates 91% of revenues & EBITDA
9 Countries
Total Assets
TRY21 billion
1 As of November 5, 2015
TV customers
342K Market Cap1
TRY26 billion
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CORPORATE
CONSUMER
WHOLESALE
TURKCELL GROUP CONVERGED COMMUNICATIONS AND TECHNOLOGY SERVICES
MAIN SEGMENTS1
18.2%
78.1%
4.2%
6.5%
10.9%
8.5%
OUR BUSINESSES2
VOICE DATA
SERVICES & SMS
TV
(2.0%)
11.3%
34.2%
500%
1 Breakdown does not include other revenues 2 Breakdown does not include wholesale and other revenues
Share in revenues in Q315 Q315 YoY growth
TURKCELL TURKEY
TURKCELL INTERNATIONAL
OTHER SUBSIDIARIES
91.4% 7.0% 1.6%
9.9% (22.9%) (10.1%)
50.1% 31.7%
0.3% 10.3%
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AMBITION LEVEL
Group Revenue Growth
►
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
5.6%
GUIDANCE 2015 ↑Around 6%
2018E
CAGR 2015 - 2018 ↑Around 10-14%
Bars are not shown to scale
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91% 7%
Revenue CAGR 2015-2018
10%
EBITDA Margin next 3 years
32%-35%
Revenue CAGR 2015-2018
15%
EBITDA Margin next 3 years
~35%
GROWTH DRIVERS
TURKCELL TURKEY
TURKCELL INTERNATIONAL
Share in Group Revenues
as of Q315
Other
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GROWTH DRIVERS
2015-2018 CAGR
>25% Data Growth
>30% Service & Solutions Growth (excl. SMS)
~5% Voice decline
52%
30%
18%
LTM* Sep'15 2018E
Services & Solutions & Other Data Voice
* Last 12 months
~20%
~50%
~30%
TURKCELL TURKEY
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~35% EBITDA Margin
~15% CAGR 2015E-2018E
Astelit is the main driver
GROWTH DRIVERS
66%
15%
15%
LTM* Sep'15 2018E
Astelit BeST KKTCell Other
>10%
>15%
~70%
* Last 12 months
TURKCELL INTERNATIONAL
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12% 12% 14% 15% 16%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 9M15 2018E
9% 10% 11% 13%
10%
25.5% 28.2%
30.5% 30.6% 32.1%
MOMENTUM IN UKRAINE
Revenue Growth (UAH)
EBITDA Margin
Revenue Market Share
>35% EBITDA margin in next 3 years
>10% Revenue growth in UAH
↑4pp market share in last 4 years
* 9M15 revenue market share is based on internal estimates.
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AMBITION LEVEL
Group EBITDA Margin
►
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
31%
2018E
GUIDANCE 2015 32-32.5%
2015 - 2018 Around 32-35%
Bars are not shown to scale
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AMBITION LEVEL
Group Operational Capex/ Sales (excl. license fees)
►
Op. Capex Trend
17%-16% in FY18
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
GUIDANCE 2015 ~20%
Bars are not shown to scale
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DISCIPLINED M&A Main Criteria:
• Cultural & geographical alignment
• Balanced portfolio of mobile & fixed infrastructure
• EBITDA accretive
Azercell
Geocell
Turkcell
KKTCell
KCell life : )
Turkcell Europe
Moldcell
MIDTERM GROUP
REVENUE BREAKDOWN Focus on
Eastern Europe
Balkans &
MENA life : )
91%
80-85%
7%
~7-10% 2%
~8-10%
Current Organic Inorganic
Turkey International Other
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9M 2015 Growth YoY %
9,435 5.5%
3,082 8.4%
32.7% 0.9pp
1,484 (7.7%)
1,860 15.6%
CONSOLIDATED TRY MILLION1 Q3 2015
Growth YoY %
Revenue 3,364 6.4%
EBITDA
1,161 10.5%
EBITDA Margin 34.5% 1.3pp
Net Income 630 (16.5%)
Net Income excl.
non-recurring items2 707 17.8%
1 TRY figures are based on IFRS TRY figures 2 Net Income excluding FX gain/(loss) (inc tax and minority impact), monetary gain (inflation impact), interest Income on time deposit & one off items
9 MONTHS QUARTER
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Q3 & YTD
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GUIDANCE FOR 2015 - 2016
2015E 2016E
REVENUE GROWTH
EBITDA MARGIN
OPERATIONAL CAPEX / SALES*
Turkey ~10% Group ~6%
31%-33% 32%-32.5%
~20% ~20%
* Excluding license fees
2014
31.2%
17%
TURKCELL GROUP
Turkey 8-10% Group 8-10%
Turkey 6.4% Group 5.6%
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STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
POSITION
TURKCELL AS A
CONVERGED
COMPANY
• Convergence in sales & marketing
• Convergence in network & technology
STRENGTHEN
OUR POSITION
IN TURKEY
• Largest 4.5G spectrum
• Stronger customer base
• Fair competitive environment
FOCUS ON
INTERNATIONAL
EXPANSION
• Return on investment in our international businesses
• Disciplined M&A approach
TAKE VALUE
CREATING
ACTIONS
• Strong balance sheet
• Improving working capital & FCF
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MURAT DOĞAN ERDEN - EVP– FINANCE
Serving as the Chief Financial Officer since 2013
Prior to this position, he was the Acting Chief Financial Officer and Head of Treasury and Risk Management
BURAK SEVİLENGÜL - EVP- MARKETING
Appointed Executive Vice President of Marketing in April 2015
Prior to this position, he was the Chief Consumer Marketing and Sales Officer
İLKER KURUÖZ - EVP- TECHNOLOGY
Serving as the Executive Vice President of Technology since December 2013
Previously, he was the Chief Information and Communications Officer of Turkcell
TUĞRUL CORA - SVP- CORPORATE SALES
Appointed as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Sales since July 2015
Prior to this position, he was Director of Strategic & Major Accounts Management
NEXT SPEAKERS
AGENDA
TURKCELL GROUP STRATEGY OVERVIEW
TURKCELL GROUP FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
TURKCELL TURKEY POSITIONING
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
CORPORATE BUSINESS REVIEW
FINANCIAL
HIGHLIGHTS
Murat D. ERDEN Executive Vice President, Finance
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TURKCELL GROUP FINANCE: VALUE CREATION
ORGANIC REVENUE Growth
Convergent Offers
Consumer Finance
Retail Business
International Business
NET INCOME Focus
Financial Income/Expense Outlook
CAPEX Outlook
Tax Optimization
EBITDA Improvement
Opex Management
Cost Optimization Program
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION Focal Point
Working Capital Management
Leverage Optimization
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7%
-5%
28%
~10% ~15%
~50%
Turkcell Turkey Turkcell International Other Subsidiaries
2012-2015E 2015E-2018E
TURKCELL GROUP REVENUE CAGR
percentage
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH
Data & services growth 3G spectrum, services growth and economic recovery in
Ukraine
Main driver: Turkcell Financial Services
CAGRs presented for 2012-2015E and 2015E-2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly
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7% 10-14%
Turkcell Group
2012-2015E 2015E-2018E
TURKCELL GROUP REVENUE CAGR
percentage
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH
GROUP REVENUES
10-14%
CAGRs presented for 2012-2015E and 2015E-2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly
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40%
15%
30%
10%
TURKCELL TURKEY REVENUE BREAKDOWN
>25% Mobile Data
>20% Fixed Data
>30% Services
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH
10%
5%
Voice Mobile Data Fixed Data
2018E 2015E Percentage
Services Messaging Other
50%
25%
2015 – 2018 CAGR
5% 5% 3% 2%
Shares presented for 2015E and 2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly.
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14%
18%
2% 2%
82%
Treasury Share &Other LegalPayments
ICTA FrequencyFees
Prepaid SubscriberUsage Fee
Non-AddressableCosts
Addressable Costs Total Cost Base
as % of revenues
ADDRESSABLE & NON-ADDRESSABLE COST BASE
of Opex consists of non-addressable cost base 18%
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
of total cost base is in hard currency 10% Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly
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14%
11% 12% 12%
3%
Treasury Share &Other legalpayments
InterconnectionCosts
Network RelatedCosts
Selling & Marketing General &Administrative
2015E 2018E
TURKCELL TURKEY COSTS as % of
revenues
Increase in network costs offset by cost optimization program Benefiting from digitalization in marketing
~
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
Shares presented for 2015E and 2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly.
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Network
Customer Experience
Information Technologies
Non-technical Opex & Capex
(1) Total Opex & Capex
until 2018 ~TRY1.0bn1 The program targets
total saving of around
The program includes saving across the core operational areas such as;
Cost efficiency program will be effective through 2018.
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
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8% 5%
20% >10%
>20%
>40%
Turkcell Turkey Turkcell International Other Subsidiaries
2012-2015E 2015E-2018E
percentage
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
TURKCELL GROUP EBITDA CAGR
>10% Financial discipline maintained
>20% Higher contribution of
Astelit and Best
>40% Turkcell Financial Services
as the main contributor
CAGRs presented for 2012-2015E and 2015E-2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly
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8% 5%
20% >10%
>20%
>40%
Turkcell Turkey Turkcell International Other Subsidiaries
2012-2015E 2015E-2018E
percentage
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
TURKCELL GROUP EBITDA CAGR
GROUP EBITDA
MARGIN 2018
32-35% CAGRs presented for 2012-2015E and 2015E-2018E are approximate.
Please note that in the three year plan presented, Turkcell Satış (retail store in telecommunications) and Global Bilgi (call center services) have been included in “Other Subsidiaries” whereas in our most recent financial release they were included in “Turkcell Turkey”. The historic financial information herein has been adjusted accordingly
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EBITDA Margin Comparison (2014) percentage
~
EBITDA IMPROVEMENT
Vodafone Group financial year ended 31 March 2015
Turkcell’s EBITDA margin is one of the highest when impact of Treasury share is excluded.
EBITDA Margin Excl. Treasury Share 44%
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FINANCIAL INCOME & EXPENSE
AMORTIZATION & TAX
NET INCOME DEVELOPMENTS
• BeST: Outstanding loans replaced by quasi equity
• Astelit: Short term loans converted into local currency
MINIMIZING CURRENCY RISK
• 4.5G license for ~EUR1.6bn with 13 year duration with related investment in Turkey
INCREASING AMORTIZATION EXPENSE
• Impact of US$2.9bn loan package
NEW LOANS
• Efficiency tax management through simplification of current subsidiary structure
TAX OPPORTUNITIES
40
93%
7%
2014 2015E 2018ETurkcell International Turkcell Turkey
17% 20%
2014 2015E 2018E
TURKCELL GROUP OPERATIONAL CAPEX1/REVENUES
TURKCELL GROUP OPERATIONAL CAPEX BREAKDOWN
Percentage
Shares presented for 2015 and 2018 are approximate.
(1) License fees are not included
Turkcell Turkey 4.5G Roll-out
Turkcell Turkey Fiber Roll-out
Ukraine 3G Roll-out
MAIN INVESTMENT AREAS
of the capital expenditures are denominated in foreign currency
~70%
TURKCELL GROUP OPERATIONAL CAPEX
Percentage
<17% 90% 90%
10% 10%
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ONLY TURKISH COMPANY WITH INVESTMENT GRADE FROM THREE RATING AGENCIES
BBB- Stable
Baa3 Negative
BBB- Stable
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
42
NET DEBT & EBITDA DEBT RESTRUCTURING LENGTHENS
MATURITY
PRIOR PROSPECTIVE1
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
-1.6
-1.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.9
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2013 2014 2015E 2018E
Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA
-1.4x
1-1.5x
-1.4x
TRY Million Percentage
Short Term Long Term
81%
19%
83%
17%
Shares presented for 2015 and 2018 are approximate.
(1) In the case of US$500 million bond and EUR500 million CDB loan are utilized
0.2x
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DATE AMOUNT MATURITY INTEREST PURPOSE OF FUNDING AVAILABILITY
PERIOD
Club Loan (September
2015)
US$500mn and
EUR445mn
2 year grace period, 5 years
maturity
3 month LIBOR/
EURIBOR + 2.00%
CAPEX and inorganic growth opportunities
June 30, 2016
Bond (October 2015) US$500mn 15/10/2025 5.95% -
China Development
Bank (October 2015)
EUR500mn
EUR750mn
3 year grace period, 10 years
maturity
EURIBOR + 2.20%
EUR500mn: Debt restructuring
EUR750mn: CAPEX
2 Years
3 Years
Summary US$2.9bn 6 Years 3.40%
CAPEX, Debt restructuring and inorganic growth
opportunities
9 Months – 3 Years
Equal weighting of EUR and US$ debt
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
CAPEX and inorganic growth opportunities
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Dec15E Dec16E Dec17E Dec18E
TFS Loan Portfolio
Receivables from terminals
Improve working capital management
NPL sales opportunity
Addressing unbanked population
New revenue stream
Contribution to Company Value
Synergy & Growth of M-Banking
Convergence between telecom & finance
TURKCELL FINANCIAL SERVICES (TFS)
Expectations Regarding Establishment of
Support smartphone penetration &
converged offers
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
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Improve working capital management
NPL sales opportunity
Addressing unbanked population
New revenue stream
Contribution to Company Value
Synergy & Growth of M-Banking
Convergence between telecom & finance
TURKCELL FINANCIAL SERVICES (TFS)
Expectations Regarding Establishment of
Support smartphone penetration &
converged offers
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION
2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
FCF (Excl. License Fees)
46
ORGANIC REVENUE Growth
1
EBITDA Improvement 2
BALANCE SHEET OPTIMIZATION Focal Point
4
NET INCOME Focus
3
GROUP REVENUES
2015-2018 CAGR
10-14% GROUP EBITDA
MARGIN 2018
32-35%
Dynamic working capital management
Leverage optimization
~1-1.5x
Improvement via debt restructuring & tax optimization
SUMMARY
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TURKCELL
TURKEY
POSITIONING
Burak SEVİLENGÜL Executive Vice President- Marketing
48
46.3% 45.3% 44.3%
35.0% 35.6% 35.6%
18.6% 19.1% 20.1%
Q213 Q214 Q215 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
1 Turkcell estimates
MARKET LEADER IN 3 YEARS
REVENUE SHARE OF MAJOR PLAYERS1
49
CONVERGENCE
STRONG GROWTH IN CORE BUSINESS
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES
NEW AGE MARKETING
OUR WINNING STRATEGY
50
CONVERGENCE
STRONG GROWTH IN CORE BUSINESS
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES
NEW AGE MARKETING
OUR WINNING STRATEGY
a. MONETIZING USAGE b. SUBSCRIBER MIX CHANGE
51
6.2
9.6 12.7 19%
30%
40%
>50%
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2018E
million
MONETIZING USAGE: SMARTPHONE EFFECT
SMARTPHONE PENETRATION
>70% SP penetration by 2018
2x Traffic increase with SP1
4G compatible sales
>90%
GROWTH DRIVERS
1 A Turkcell smartphone user creates two times higher traffic when switched from a non-smartphone.
52
60
48 46 45 44 43 42 41 41
Tu
rke
y
Fin
lan
d
Ch
ina
Ru
ssia
Sin
gap
ore
Bra
zil
Me
xic
o
De
nm
ark
Arg
en
tin
a
MONETIZING USAGE: DATA CONSUMPTION
60% of smartphone users watch long videos (>5 mins) daily or more frequently1
1IAB Research «Mobile Video Usage: A Global Perspective» (2015)
percentage
2 Google Consumer Barometer, Social Media Usage by Countries (2014)
92 86 84 83
73 72 72 71 68
52
Tu
rke
y
Arg
en
tin
a
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Ru
ssia
US
UK
Ca
na
da
Au
stra
lia
Ge
rma
ny
Social media usage is highest in Turkey2
percentage
53
2015E 2018E
MONETIZING USAGE: 4.5G BOOST
TOTAL MOBILE TRAFFIC
4.5G
3G
Increase in smartphone
data usage1
Penetration of 4.5G supporting devices in smartphones by 20182
2.7x
~%55
1 Average monthly cellular data usage on smartphones, USA - Analysys Mason and Nielsen, 2014 2 Turkcell forecast
6X
3G
54
~47%
>60%
Q315 2018E
SUBSCRIBER MIX CHANGE
POSTPAID SUBSCRIBER SHARE
~10%
~30%
2015E 2018E
QUADRUPLE PLAY1
1 Calculated on the basis of several assumptions including Turkcell mobile market share in cities with DSL, or fiber presence
55
SUBSCRIBER MIX CHANGE
2015E 2018E
more subscribers with >TRY 50 ARPU
less subscribers with <TRY 5 ARPU
>4 M
>1 M
FIXED-MOBILE BLENDED ARPU
10% CAGR
TRY
56
CONVERGENCE
STRONG GROWTH IN CORE BUSINESS
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES
NEW AGE MARKETING
OUR WINNING STRATEGY
57
Household focus Products & services
“One-stop shop”
Customer experience
& services
Single bill
CONVERGED TURKCELL
COMMITTED TO DELIVERING A CONVERGED EXPERIENCE
58
WELL-POSITIONED FOR CONVERGENCE
SUBSCRIBER MARKET SHARE (Q2’15)
Fiber roll-out to continue in new cities
Significant growth potential in fixed broadband and TV
Others 15%
CHALLENGER
IN FIXED
BROADBAND
►
Market Size: TRY4.7bn*
Türk Telekom 70%
Turkcell 15%
Source: Company announcements, ICTA Q2’15 Report * ICTA Q4’14 Report. Company calculation. FY figures.
New products & services to gain customers and to generate revenue
STARTER IN TV
►
Turkcell 3%
Digiturk 52%
Turk Telekom
5%
D-Smart 19%
Tele Dünya 13%
Market Size: TRY1.9bn*
Cable TV 8%
LEADER
IN MOBILE ► Largest customer base to penetrate
with converged offers
Market Size: TRY19.1bn*
Vodafone 30%
Turkcell 47%
Türk Telekom
23%
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WELL-POSITIONED FOR CONVERGENCE
SALES CHANNEL
1,100 Exclusive Turkcell Shops
50,000 D2D visits per month
32,000,000 Digital channels log in per month
ORGANIZATION
Single P&L
Budget Optimization
Best Practices of each
1 «Turkey’s Lovemarks in 2015» Survey by Mediacat & IPSOS. In «GSM operators» category.
2 Capital Magazine Research with GfK «500 Most Admired Company» List (2014)
BRAND
Lovemark1
Most Admired2
"Innovative"
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WELL-POSITIONED FOR CONVERGENCE
• FttB/H fiber network
• Focused roll-out plan
• Higher take-up rate
• Highest customer satisfaction
FIBER
• All access service model
• Turkcell TV+ on ADSL
• Content partnership TURKCELL TV+
4.5G
• Even stronger
• Differentiation: speed and quality
• Capacity to facilitate usage boost
• New offerings and services
61
CONVERGENCE
STRONG GROWTH IN CORE BUSINESS
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES
NEW AGE MARKETING
OUR WINNING STRATEGY
62
Leading premium music service
80
200
400
800
2012 2015E 2016E 2018E
Cumulative million
400+ Curated list
4.5M Download
TURKCELL MUSIC
STREAM
63
0.1
1.5
5
2011 2015E 2018E
SPORTS SERVICES
million
2006 2011 2015 SMS & MMS MOBILE SITE
& APP
TEAM SPECIFIC
APPS
2018 NEW FEATURES
& IOT
DOWNLOAD One stop shop for teams content
Instant goals from Turkish Premier League
Real time news
Match catch up & statistics
Fan chat
Next:
IoT integration
Gamification
Content Expansion
Celebrity Engagement
64
Cloud for everyone The most widely used personal cloud service in Turkey
PERSONAL CLOUD
2.1 M Download to date
190 M Stored data unit
0.45
4
10
2014 2015E 2016E 2018E
million
1.8
ACTIVE USERS
65
TURKCELL TV+: NEXT GENERATION TV
400
2015E 2018E
USERS
thousand
5X
Strong take up in fiber base
Penetration in ADSL base with hybrid boxes
Aggressive growth with 4.5G
New revenue stream through all-access
Partnership with content providers
Anytime with cloud pvr & timeshift
Anywhere with real multiscreen experience
Next:
66
1.0
1.4
Q215 Q315
DOWNLOAD1
BIP: NEXT GENERATION COMMUNICATION PLATFORM
ACTIVE USERS
million
1 Includes the download of BIP 2.0 & 3.0. BIP 2.0 launched in April 2015
Also in Germany & Northern Cyprus
41% of users are non-Turkcell
High Quality Voice&Video Call
Soon in Ukraine & Belarus!
Local content
67
1
10
2015E 2018E
MOBILE PAYMENT MOBILE WALLET FINANCIAL
TRANSACTIONS
From mainly digital content purchases to new areas
Secure and convenient mobile payment with any
credit/debit card
Money transfer at
Turkcell Stores
FINANCIAL SERVICES
1.4 2.4
5.5
2012 2015E 2018E
Number of Users million
Turkcell Invoice /
Prepaid account
Credit/
Debit Card Money Transfer
Number of Cards Registered
million
68
PEOPLE
THINGS SYSTEMS
INTERNET OF THINGS
VEHICLES
million
1.6
7.8
Q3 2015 2018E
CONNECTIONS ON TURKCELL NETWORK
Connected Cash Register
GROWTH DRIVERS
Insurance Telematics
Smartgrid Roll out
E-call initiative
Cold chain tracking
69
DIGITAL MARKETING & ADVERTISING
15%
From SMS marketing to enhanced digital marketing platform
Marketing Insight Services
End to end marketing solutions for SME
MARKET SHARE IN TURKEY
1.7
2.7 2018
2015
TRY billion
70
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES & SOLUTIONS
609
LTM Sep'15 2018E
REVENUE GENERATION
>30% Services & Solutions Revenue CAGR (2015-2018)
TRY million
71
CONVERGENCE
STRONG GROWTH IN CORE BUSINESS
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH IN SERVICES
NEW AGE MARKETING
OUR WINNING STRATEGY
72
NEW AGE MARKETING
Digital Turkcell
Operational efficiency
Personalised offer management
Superior full digital experience
Real-Time
Big data utilization
Customer journey analytics
Advanced analytical modelling
Need-centric approach
Unique micro segmentation management
Tailor-made offers and solutions
Increased satisfaction and loyalty
73
KEY MESSAGES
CONVERGENCE
► CORE BUSINESS
SERVICES
MARKETING
►
►
►
Strong fundamentals to lead the market
Value creation through monetizing growing data usage
Value focused customer mix
Significant growth potential in services
Effective marketing through segmentation; digitalization
CORPORATE
BUSINESS
TUĞRUL CORA Senior Vice President – Corporate Sales
75 Source : Method Research, Q2’2015 Trend Reports and TUIK (inc.public)
2.7 MILLION COMPANIES 27 MILLION
EMPLOYEES
TRY 5.6 billion telecom spending
TURKISH CORPORATE MARKET
76
TURKCELL CORPORATE MARKET SHARE
2010 2014 2018E
Market Size*
Turkcell Corporate Competitors
31% 34% 37-39%
TRY 4.2 billion TRY 5.6 billion TRY 7.6 billion
2010-2014 2015-2018
Market 8%
Turkcell 10%
Market 8%
Turkcell 10-12%
CAGR (%)
►
*Market Size: Mobile, Fixed and DC&Cloud in Turkey
77
9/10 TURKEY’S TOP COMPANIES WORKING WITH TURKCELL
78
BRANCH OFFICES
CONNECTIVITY MANAGED NETWORK
CUSTOMERS
DATA CENTERS
Cold Chain Management
Security & Surveillance
Smart Office Vehicles
IoT
SmartGrid
Mobile Apps
4G SmartPhone/
Tablet
EMPLOYEES HEADQUARTERS
Security End User Services
Helpdesk
Desktop Virtualization Wi-Fi
Cloud Security
Messaging & Collaboration
ERP
CRM
Active Directory
Application Operations
Database
Storage
Location Based
7/24 Monitoring
Predictive
Realtime
Mobile Learning
Device Management
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF AN ENTERPRISE
Social Networks
Big Data
79
Hosting & Facility
Management
DC&Cloud Infrastructure
Managed Network &
Security
Managed Infrastructure
Application Operations
End User Services
FROM TELCO TO TECHNOLOGY SERVICES PROVIDER
Partially Complete
Connectivity
Telecom Operator
DC&Cloud Provider
System Integrator
TURKCELL 2010
TURKCELL 2018
TURKCELL 2015
80
GAME PLAN IN THREE GROWTH AREAS
1
3
Mobile data growth with 4.5G
Fixed penetration into customer base
DC&Cloud market development
2
81
GAME PLAN IN THREE GROWTH AREAS
1
3
Mobile data growth with 4.5G
Fixed penetration into customer base
DC&Cloud market development
2
82
MOBILE DATA GROWTH
Best mobile network coverage & frequency spectrum advantage with 3G/4.5G
End-to-end Enterprise Mobility Solutions
Corporate mobile market share >60%
TURKCELL
Source(1) : Cisco VNI: Forecast and Methodology, 2014-B2019
Source(2) : 2015 Enterprise Mobile Application Report, 451Research, sponsored by Kony
Source(3) : GSMA Intelligence, M2M Connections 2014-2019
MARKET TRENDS
51% Growth in business mobile data traffic 1
x4 Global enterprise mobility market growth2
(2014-2019)
35% Growth in M2M connections3
83
CORPORATE MOBILE PRODUCT PENETRATION
2010 2014 2018E
0.4mn
0.8mn
1.6mn
MOBILE BROADBAND
2010 2014 2018E
0.2mn 0.4mn
1.0mn
2010 2014 2018E
M2M
0.8mn
1.5mn
3.6mn
MOBILE VOICE USING DATA
2.0x 2.5x 2.5x
2014 – 2018E 2014 – 2018E 2014 – 2018E
84
GAME PLAN IN THREE GROWTH AREAS
1
3
Mobile data growth with 4.5G
Fixed penetration into customer base
DC&Cloud market development
2
85
MARKET TRENDS
12% Corporate fixed data revenue growth in Turkey3
36% Growth in video and digital content in corporate networks2
20% Increase in fixed business internet traffic1
FIXED BUSINESS GROWTH
Source(1) : Cisco VNI Forecast and Methodology, 2014-2019 Source(2) : Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2014-2019 Source(3) : Turkcell Corporate Management estimations
Only 6% fiber penetration
into customer base
TURKCELL
Only sizeable
fixed network alternative to the incumbent
Incumbent vs Turkcell 200k vs 35k km fiber 300k vs 150k office pass
86
2010 2015 2018E
5k
25k
50k
2.0x
2015 – 2018E
FIBER CORPORATE CUSTOMERS
INCREASE IN FIBER CUSTOMER BASE
43%
75%
36%
7% 6%
CentralPublic
StrategicAccounts
LargeAccounts
MediumBusiness
SmallBusiness
FY 2015E - % of Corporate Mobile Customers
FIBER CUSTOMER PENETRATION
87
GAME PLAN IN THREE GROWTH AREAS
1
3
Mobile data growth with 4.5G
Fixed penetration into customer base
DC&Cloud market development
2
88
Source(1) : IDC Predictions 2015: Accelerating Innovation – and Growth – on the 3rd Platform Source(2) : Cisco Global Cloud Index Source(3) : IDC’s Worldwide SaaS Enterprise Applications 2014-2018 Forecast Source(4) : Accenture Turkey Cloud Market Survey
MARKET TRENDS
19% Growth in cloud market1
Increase in cloud workload2
(2013-2018)
x2
New government regulations promoting localization of data
x3
TelecomOperators
HostingCompanies
SystemIntegrators
Other
21%
18%
FROM WHOM CUSTOMERS PREFER TO BUY CLOUD4
63%
21% 18%
7%
SaaS based Enterprise Applications3
(2014-2018)
EMERGING DC&CLOUD MARKET
89
• End-to-end IT infrastructure solutions via Professional Services
• Dedicated DC&Cloud services for Government Entities
• Strategic partnership with global players in IaaS and SaaS
• Special focus on managed security services
• Product development in secure messaging & collaboration
2015 7K m2
2018 30K m2
NATION’S LARGEST DC&CLOUD INFRASTRUCTURE
90
SEGMENTED EXECUTION
► CENTRAL PUBLIC
►
►
►
STRATEGIC ACCOUNTS
LARGE & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
SMALL BUSINESSES & SOHO
• m-Government Solutions
• Dedicated data center & cloud
• Secure Messaging & Collaboration
• Mobile transformation
• IT outsourcing and end-to-end solutions
• Industrial focus
• Big Data Monetization
• Strong growth in mobile data
• Penetrate with fixed network products
• Basic cloud services
• Growth through convergence across all channels
• Penetrate market with TV
Direct salesforce Indirect salesforce
91
2014 Mobile Voice Mobile Data Fixed Data DC&Cloud Other 2018E
TURKCELL CORPORATE REVENUE GROWTH
↓-3-5%
↑20-25%
↑25-30% ↑50-60%
↑2-4%
CAGR
10-12% TRY 1.9bn
Total Revenue
Three Growth Engines ►
92
İlker Kuruöz Executive Vice President- Technology
NETWORK
&
TECHNOLOGY
93
İlker Kuruöz
NETWORK
CONVERGENCE
DIGITALIZATION
DEVICES & SERVICES
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
94
İlker Kuruöz
NETWORK
CONVERGENCE
DIGITALIZATION
DEVICES & SERVICES
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
95
SPEED
63.3 MBPS MOBILE
1000 MBPS FIBER
CUSTOMER NEED: QUALITY
2G: 99.81%
COVERAGE
3G: 94.14%
~35K km Fiber network
2.3 mn Home pass
484
Q113 Q315
CAPACITY
Average Usage (MB/User/month)
3.4x 1,637
96
# 1 OPERATOR
#1 COUNTRY in the world in terms of mobile network coverage
* Among 11 operators in Istanbul, London, Milano, Paris
SUPERIOR NETWORK: INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION
in Europe* for 3G data speed
AMONG TOP 8 1,000 Mbps Fiber Broadband Speed, ranking Turkey among top 8 in the world
97
0.7
0.4
CALL SUCCESS RATIO (%) CALL DROP RATIO (%)
0.6
Europe & Middle East
World
Turkcell
MOBILE NETWORK CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
*Ericsson Study- May 2015
99.6
99.2
98.7
98
4.3
3.6
2.9
4.5
3.7
2.9
HIGH COVERAGE
Turkcell
Vodafone
Türk Telekom
4.4
4.0
3.4
*Ipsos-Perception Studies – Q215
BEST MOBILE BROADBAND SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGY
MOBILE NETWORK CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
99
CONTINUED DATA GROWTH
250
1,500
2015E 2018E
MOBILE INTERNET USAGE (PB/YEAR)
Social Media Internet Video
Other Web/Data
53%
28%
8% 11%
41% 28% 10% 21%
6x
250
2015E 2018E
1,500
17,300
5,450
INTERNET USAGE (PB/YEAR)
Mobile
Fixed
5,700
18,800
3x
100
CONTINUED DEMAND FOR VOICE
2017 2015
Video-o-BIP
4G Voice
VoBIP
eVoLTE
2016
TOTAL VOICE TRAFFIC (Billion Minutes)
Fixed Mobile
125
160
3
5
2015E 2018E 2015E 2018E
MOU (Minutes Per User)
9% CAGR
8% CAGR
>300
>400
101
26.6% 20.8%
11.9% 8.9%
73.4% 79.2%
88.1% 91.1%
2012 2013 2014 Q315
2G+3G Voice Traffic % 2G+3G DataTraffic %
VOICE & DATA CAPACITY USAGE
MOBILE NETWORK CAPACITY UTILIZATION
102
234.4 MHz
FREQUENCIES BEFORE AND AFTER 4.5G TENDER
TOTAL FREQUENCY BEFORE TENDER
Turkcell Vodafone Türk Telekom
62.0 57.0 64.8
172.4
82.8
110.2
AWARDED FREQUENCY IN
TENDER
TOTAL FREQUENCY AFTER TENDER
139.8 MHz
175.0 MHz
€0.3
€0.4
€0.5
• Price / MHz / Population in Turkey: €0.12 per MHz per sub cost
103
234.4 MHz
FREQUENCIES BEFORE AND AFTER 4.5G TENDER
Turkcell Vodafone Türk Telekom
62.0 57.0 64.8
172.4
82.8
110.2
139.8 MHz
175.0 MHz
2600 MHz
2100 MHz
1800 MHz
900 MHz
800 MHz 4.5G main coverage layer
2G/3G coverage and voice layer
Main layer for 4.5G Terminal support, capacity and
coverage layer
Mobile broadband layer for 3G 4.5G usage for mid/long term
4.5G capacity boost layer for hot spots
€0.3
€0.4
€0.5
• Price / MHz / Population in Turkey: €0.12
60.0 40.0 35.0
70.0
35.0 30.0
59.6
20.0 70.0
24.8
24.8
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
per MHz per sub cost
104
2018-2019
2017
MAXIMUM THEORETICAL THROUGHPUT
HSPA + Triple Carrier
Triple Carrier
April 1, 2016
3 - 4 Carrier
> 4 Carrier
TURKCELL HAS HIGHEST SPEED CAPABILITY
Turkcell
Vodafone
Türk Telekom
With Wi-Fi Aggregation
105
~35 km 41.5 km thousand
95% of Turkcell transmission traffic carried
~20% of Turkey transmission traffic carried
Independent Fiber Backbone
thousand
►
WELL-POSITIONED TRANSMISSION BACKBONE
2018 2015
Transforming Silk Road into
Fiber Road
106
14 cities 19 cities
New 2016-2018
62% of total population
75% of total fixed broadband subscribers
65% of total households
True Fiber
►
INTELLIGENT IN-CITY FIBER ROLL-OUT STRATEGY
2018 2015
Existing 2015
Source: TURKSTAT, ICTA Report- 2014
107
biggest infrastructure operator in Europe
3rd
~9K towers in Turkey and Ukraine
↑20% Revenue CAGR (2012-2014)
WELL POSITIONED TOWER BUSINESS
108
İlker Kuruöz
NETWORK
CONVERGENCE
DIGITALIZATION
DEVICES & SERVICES
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
109
CONVERGENCE READY, FUTURE READY
FIXED
FIXED ACCESS
Transport Network
MOBILE
MOBILE ACCESS
FIXED + MOBILE
Transport Network
Mobile Access Fixed Access
TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY CUSTOMER
• IPv6 readiness (VoLTE)
• Groundwork for future convergence
• Efficient capacity usage
• CAPEX Saving
• Single BSS/OSS platform
• Standard network KPI’s
• OPEX Saving
• Cross sell bundles
• Customer satisfaction • Investing in new technologies
ONE NETWORK
110
Real-Time Rating For All Subcribers Real-time notifications, Spending control, roaming rating
Converged CRM &Billing Solution
Single Platform for Fixed &Mobile
Business & Network Analytics
Best Offer, Rule-based Marketing
Central Product Catalogue Management
Commercial & Technical
CONVERGED IT CAPABILITIES
111
EFFICIENCY THROUGH CONVERGED NETWORK
2015
15% 38% ► % of base stations connected to fiber network
►
2018
► 17%-16% ~20% Operational Capex/Sales (exc. licence)
►
112
İlker Kuruöz
NETWORK
CONVERGENCE
DIGITALIZATION
DEVICES & SERVICES
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
113
Hardware T-Series
END TO END CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
OS Android
Aggregation My Account
Payment Wallet
Storage Cloud
Access Wifi
Integration Social
Content Music Books & Magazines Academy Ticketing
Personalization By Segment
114
DIGITALIZATION ROADMAP
The Starting Point
2012
Single Hub
2013
Convergence
2016
E-Channel Excellence
2018
Digital Ecosystem
2015
115
İlker Kuruöz
NETWORK
CONVERGENCE
DIGITALIZATION
DEVICES & SERVICES
NETWORK & TECHNOLOGY
116
IMPACT OF T-SERIES
9 devices since 2010
70% 1st time smartphone users
2 million sold to date
Increased Turkcell Products &Services penetration
117
TURKCELL TV+
True multi screen with STB, Android, iOS, phones, tablets, PC, Mac browsers
4K UHD soon with high resolution, crisp video
Dynamic and interactive content with comprehensive app store
Current feature highlights:
• Video on Demand
• Personal cloud recording
• Timeshift TV up to 12 hours
• Social-TV interactivity
118
OUR IoT PRODUCTS & SERVICES
CONSUMER
Tracking Solutions Tracks assets
Healthmeter Monitors blood pressure, diabetes
►
RESIDENTIAL Connected Home Control through smart devices ►
Energy Monitoring Shows energy consumption
Cold Chain Monitors temperatures
CORPORATE ►
119
SUMMARY: MAINTAIN TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP
1. NETWORK
2. CONVERGENCE
3. DIGITALIZATION
4. DEVICES & SERVICES
Best mobile and fixed network experience at the highest speed ►
One network and one IT for one customer
Easy, seamless, fast converged digital experience
Devices & Services strategy for enhanced user experience
►
►
►
120
THANK YOU
For further information
[email protected] (+90 212 313 1888)
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