Capital Market Outlook
Transcript of Capital Market Outlook
The information herein reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgments as of the date of the presentation, which are subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any purpose without the consent of AllianceBernstein.
Are Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value Are Not Bank Guaranteed
Investment Products Offered:
Capital Markets OutlookNew Landscape Generates Opportunities
December 31, 2009
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Introduction
The markets have responded to continued signs of economic recovery
As governments begin the process of withdrawing monetary and fiscal stimulus, risks remain regarding timing and execution
New global economic patterns have emerged in the wake of the financial crisis
Identifying companies and industries that will benefit from these changes creates opportunities for active managers
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0.6%2.4%2.2% 1.5%3.3%5.2%
-1.3%-0.1%
8.5% 6.0%
4Q:2009 Returns
Credit “Safe” Assets
2009 Returns
Returns in USD
78.5%
26.5% 31.8%
57.7%
28.5% 34.2%16.6%
1.4% 4.1%
-3.6%
JapanGov’t
EM EAFEUS GlobalHighYield
USCMBS
USGov’t
EuroGov’t
EmergingMarketDebt
GlobalCorp
Equities
Past performance does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital, MSCI, S&P and AllianceBernstein
Equities and Credit Sharply Higher in 2009…
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-2.3%
3.5%
…in Response to an Improved Economic Outlook
Current estimates and forecasts may not be attained.As of January 4, 2010Source: AllianceBernstein
-5.4%-3.9%
-2.5%
1.0%1.9% 2.4%
3.5%
6.4%
AllianceBernstein Real GDP Forecasts
EmergingCountries
Global Japan Euro Area US
2009E 2010F
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Confidence, While Still Weak, Is Improving
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
G7 Confidence Measures
Neutral
Business
Consumer
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of September 30, 2009Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Per
cent
More Willing
Less Willing
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of September 30, 2009Source: Haver Analytics and US Federal Reserve
Bank Willingness to Lend Is Becoming Less Restrictive
Bank Willingness to Make Consumer Installment Loans
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Significant Fiscal Stimulus Remains in Pipeline
0
20
40
60
80
100
US China
Per
cent
Estimates and “Still to Come” stimulus subject to change.As of December 31, 2009*Includes realized tax cuts and amount paid out; China “realized” figure is an estimate.Source: CEIC Data, Congressional Budget Office, Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, US federal agency financial and activity reports, and AllianceBernstein
Fiscal Stimulus
Total StimulusApproved: US $787 Bil. US $790 Bil.
“Realized” as% of 2008 GDP: 2.0% 6.0%
Realized*
Still to Come
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Inflation: Three Key Factors to Watch
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.Our framework marries the essential teachings about inflation from the major macroeconomic schools of thought with empirical evidence from a study of 180 countries over the past 40 years. Among other things, the empirical analysis examined those periods when a country went from low inflation (0%–5%) to high inflation (10%+) over a five-year span. Of these periods, 100% exhibited above-average money growth, 95% showed above-average wage growth and, qualitatively, 100% had aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply.Source: AllianceBernstein
Aggregate Demandvs. Supply
Wage Growth
Money and Credit Growth
High
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
High
Low
Medium
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-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10F
Per
cent
Historical analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results.Projections may not come to pass.Historical data through September 30, 2009; forecasts through December 31, 2010Official interest rate is a composite of 32 countries, including the developed economies and a sampling of emerging economies.Source: Haver Analytics, various central banks and AllianceBernstein
GDP Growth
Official Interest Rate
As Growth Accelerates, Interest Rates Should Rise
Nominal World GDP Growth and Official Interest Rate
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How Fast, and How Far?
Official Interest RatesPercent
Historical analysis and forecasts do not guarantee future results.Projections may not come to pass.As of December 31, 2009*At year-end; 2010 forecasts are AllianceBernstein’s.Source: Bloomberg and AllianceBernstein
2.83.4
4.7
6.0
0.1
1.00.3 0.5
5.3
2.3 2.0 2.0
6.7
0.2 0.1
Japan Euro Area US UK China
2003–2007 2009* 2010F*
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US Federal BudgetUS$ Billion
Long-Term Budget Projections Tend to Extrapolate Current Trends
-221
126
-1417
-269
444
-722
236
-1,417
Projection Made in 1990 for FY2000
FY1990 Actual
Projection Made in 1999 for FY2009
FY1999 Actual
FY2009Actual
FY2000Actual
Historical analysis and future projections do not guarantee future results.Projections may not come to pass.As of December 31, 2009*Assumes a baseline GDP growth of 2.5% over 10 yearsSource: Office of Management and Budget
FY2009Actual
Projection Made in 2009 for FY2019*
FY2019Actual
?
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Anxiety about the Future Obscures Opportunity
US and other developed market consumers are too indebted to resume spending
The weak dollar is a sign of no confidence in the US
Regulation and uncertainty will stifle economic growth
Growing middle class in emerging markets are the key to consumption growth
The falling dollar is part of a necessary correction to an unhealthy imbalance
Innovation and productivity gains are as strong as ever
Anxiety Opportunity
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1990s 2000–2005 2006–2008
The US Is Not the Only Driver of Consumption
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.Source: Haver Analytics, International Financial Statistics, World Bank and AllianceBernstein
Emerging Markets’ Share of Global Real Consumption GrowthPercent of Total
22%
29%
46%
EEMEA
Asiaex Japan
Latin America
Total GlobalConsumptionGrowth: 2.8% 3.9% 3.3%
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We Believe The US Dollar Is Not at Risk of Losing Reserve Status
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009*Includes debt securities issued by nonresidents**Excludes interbank loansSource: Bank of International Settlements, European Central Bank, MSCI and AllianceBernstein
Daily Currency TransactionsUS$ Billion
0
1,500
3,000
US Dollar Euro Yen
24%
40%
48%52%
US GDP as a
Share of World GDP
US Dollar as a Share of Capital Market Transactions
International Debt
Securities*
Cross-Border
Loans**
GlobalEquities
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
02 03 04 05 06 07 08
US
$ B
illio
ns
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.Left as of December 31, 2008. Right as of September 30, 2009.*Based on first three quartersSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics and US Federal Reserve
Weak Dollar Is Attracting Foreign Investment to the US and Driving a Shift in Trade Flows
Foreign Direct Investment in the US
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
98 01 04 07
US
$ B
illio
ns
Real US Trade Deficit
09*
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Innovation Should Continue to Drive Economic Growthand Create Investment Opportunities
1818 Bicycle
1827Ohm's Law (Electricity)
1829Steam Locomotive
1846 Anaesthesia
1860InternalCombustionEngine
1876Telephone
1880 Electric Lighting
1885First Car
1893 Radio
1895 X-Ray
1903 Aeroplane
1923 Television
1928Penicillin
1942Nuclear Reactor
1953Helical Structureof DNA Discovered
1971 Microprocessor
1973 Genetically Modified Organism
& Personal Computer
1977 Mobile Phone
1985 DNA Finger Printing
1990World Wide Web
2003 First Human
Genome Sequenced
1865 Mendel's Law (basis of genetics)
1800
1900
2000
Source: AllianceBernstein
Technological Revolutions
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Historical analysis and current estimates do not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009Historical averages are calculated by averaging monthly values looking back 10 years.Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: FactSet, MSCI and AllianceBernstein
Equity Markets Look Attractive by Long-Term Measures, But Fairly Valued on Current Levels of Earnings
Price to Book MSCI World
1.9×
2.5×
Current HistoricalAverage
1.0×1.2×
Current HistoricalAverage
Price to SalesMSCI World
Price to EarningsMSCI World
2009E HistoricalAverage
18.2× 17.7×
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Global Profitability Is at a Cyclical Low
MSCI World ROE*
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009*Defined as price/book value divided by price/earningsIndividuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: MSCI and AllianceBernstein
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
89 92 95 98 01 04 07
Per
cent
Long-Term Average: 12.0%
Current: 6.6%
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Companies Have Started to Beat Earnings Estimates
Positive 3Q:2009 Earnings Surprises*
82%
56% 53%58%
46%
32%
US Europe Japan
EPS Sales
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009*US represented by companies in the S&P 500, Europe by MSCI Europe and Japan by Nikkei 225; data are as of November 30, 2009.Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Thomson I/B/E/S and Bernstein
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50
60
70
80
90
100
07 08 09E 10E 11E
US
Dol
lars
As Earnings Recover, Valuations Look More Attractive
MSCI World Operating Earnings per Share
2010 ConsensusEarnings Growth 28%
Trend
Past performance and current estimates do not guarantee future results. Actual earnings through December 31, 2008; 2009–2011 consensus estimates as of December 17, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: FactSet, Thompson I/B/E/S, MSCI and AllianceBernstein
2011 ConsensusEarnings Growth 21%
P/FE 17.6x 14.1x 11.7x
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As Risk Appetite Returns, “Safe Havens” Underperform
Returns (%)
2008 2009
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.*At year-end; CBOE volatility indexCategories represented by: Barclays Capital US Treasury Index; US dollar versus trade-weighted basket of currencies; Barclays Capital Global Aggregate–Corporates Index, hedged into US dollars; S&P GSCI Total Return Index; and MSCI World, hedged into US dollarsIndividuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg, CBOE, MSCI and S&P
-50
-30
-10
10
30VIX*40.0
-50
-30
-10
10
30VIX*21.7
US Dollar
US Treas
Global Corps
Global Equities
Comm-odities
US Dollar
US Treas
Global Corps
Global Equities
Comm-odities
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Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: Credit Suisse, MSCI and AllianceBernstein
MSCI World Intra-Index Correlation of Performance
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Cor
rela
tion
LessStock-Specific
MoreStock-Specific
Company- and Industry-Specific Factors Increasingly Drive Stock Performance
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The Spread Opportunity Has Been Largely, Although Not Fully, Captured
Global Corporate Bond Spreads to Treasuries2007–2009
0
500
1,000
1,500
A BBB BB B
Bas
is P
oint
s
Dec 2009
Dec 2008
Dec 2007
High YieldInv. Grade
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: Barclays Capital and Merrill Lynch
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Sound Research Is a Must In a Lower-Yield Landscape
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results.As of December 31, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: Barclays Capital and Merrill Lynch
Global Investment-GradeCorporates (%)
0.71.11.15.5 4.56.5
16.9
7.8 8.4
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
HighestYielding Issue
MedianYield
Global High Yield(%)
5.08.5
6.28.7 8.5
18.617.021.1
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
86.3
LowestYielding Issue
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Number of Positive Years: 30 75%
Number of Negative Years: 10 25%
Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of December 31, 2009Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Please see slide 27 for index definitions.Source: MSCI and FactSet
AllianceBernstein
The Worst Year in Market History Followed By One of the Best
Annual Stock Market ReturnsMSCI World Index
Percentage Total Return
-20 to -10
2002
20to 30
0to 10
1973
1990
2000
2001
1970 1977 1971 19721974
1981 1982 1976 1980
1992 1984 1978 1983
1994 1979 1988
2005 1987 1993
2007 1989 1995
1991 1998
1996 1999
1997 2006
-40to -30
-30 to -20
-10 to 0
10 to 20
40to 50
1975 1985
2003
30to 40
-50 to -40
2004
1986
2009
2008
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Anxiety Creates Opportunity
Economic recovery is gaining steam
Policy risks remain
Anxiety about the future…
…continues to generate investment opportunities
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment in any Fund will fluctuate as the prices of the individual securities in which they invest fluctuate, so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Value investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. Not all companies whose stocks are considered to be “value” stocks are able to turn their business around or successfully employ corrective strategies that would result in stock prices that rise as initially expected.
Investments in foreign securities may magnify fluctuations due to changes in foreign exchange rates and the possibility of substantial volatility due to political and economic uncertainties in foreign countries. Because a Fund may invest in emerging markets and in developing countries, an investment also has the risk that market changes or other factors affecting emerging markets and developing countries, including political instability and unpredictable economic conditions, may have a significant effect on a Fund's net asset value.
Investing in non-US securities may be more volatile because of political, regulatory, market and economic uncertainties associated with such securities. These risks are magnified in securities of emerging or developing markets.
While a Fund may invests principally in common stocks and other equity securities, in order to achieve its investment objectives, a Fund may at times use certain types of investment derivatives, such as options, futures, forwards and swaps. These instruments involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by more traditional investments. These risks are fully discussed in each Fund’s prospectus.
A Word About Risk
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Index Descriptions
Standard & Poor's Index (S&P 500) Widely regarded as the best single gauge of the US equities market, this world-renowned index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of US equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market. The S&P 500 is part of a series of US indices that can be used as building blocks for portfolio construction. With close to $1 trillion in indexed assets, the S&P US indices have earned a reputation for being not only leading market indicators, but also investable portfolios designed for cost efficient replication or the creation of index-linked products.
MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. As of June 2007, the MSCI Europe Index consisted of the following 16 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index is a market capitalization–weighted index that measures the performance of stock markets in 23 countries.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index is a free float–adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. It consists of 26 emerging market country indices.
TOPIX Index measures stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE).
VIX Index or Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
Following is a description of the indices referred to in this presentation. It is important to recognize that all indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a mutual fund portfolio. Investors cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein mutual fund.
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Index Descriptions (continued)
Barclays Capital US Dollar Emerging Market Index includes USD-denominated debt from emerging markets in the following regions: Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia. As with other fixed income benchmarks provided by Barclays Capital, the index is rules-based, which allows for an unbiased view of the marketplace and easy replicability.
Barclays Capital Global Aggregate - Corporate Bond Index tracks the performance of investment grade corporate bonds publicly issued in the global market found in the Global Aggregate.
Barclays Capital Global High Yield Index provides a broad-based measure of the global high-yield fixed income markets. The Global High-Yield Index represents that union of the U.S. High-Yield, Pan-European High-Yield, U.S. Emerging Markets High-Yield, CMBS High-Yield, and Pan-European Emerging Markets High-Yield Indices.
Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate taxable corporate bonds that are classified as high-yield in the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Excludes Emerging Markets.
Barclays Capital Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated commercial mortgage-backed securities publicly issued in the US domestic market.
Barclays Capital US Treasury Index includes fixed-rate, local currency sovereign debt that make up the US Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index.
Barclays Capital Japan Treasury Index includes fixed-rate, local currency sovereign debt that make up the Japanese Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index.
Barclays Capital Euro Treasury Index includes fixed-rate, local currency sovereign debt that make up the Euro Treasury sector of the Global Aggregate Index.
JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) tracks total returns for external-currency-denominated debt instruments of the emerging markets: Brady bonds, loans and Eurobonds. It offers coverage of 21emerging market countries
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