Copyright ©2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning

Chapter 9Capital Budgeting: Decision

Criteria and Real Option Considerations

Introduction

• This chapter looks at capital budgeting decision models.

• It discusses and illustrates their relative strengths and weaknesses.

• It examines project review and post-audit procedures, and traces a sample project through the capital budgeting process.

Capital Budgeting Criteria

• Net present value (NPV)

• Internal rate of return (IRR)

• Profitability index (PI)

• Payback period (PB)

Net Present Value

• PV of the stream of future CFs from a project minus the project’s net investment

NINVPVNCFNPV

NINVNPV NCF

n

tk tt

11

NPV Characteristics

• NPV 0 acceptable above-normal profits

• Considers the time value of money

• Absolute measure of wealth– Positive NPVs increase owner’s wealth– Negative NPVs decrease owner’s wealth

• NPV not easily understood

• CFs over the project’s life reinvested at k

• Does not consider the value of real options

Conditions Allowing Above-Normal Profits

• Buyers preferences for established brand names

• Control of distribution systems• Patent control• Exclusive ownership of superior natural

resources• Inability of new firms to acquire factors of

production• Access to lower cost financial resources• Economies of scale• Access to superior labor or management

talents

IRR

• Rate of discount that equates the PV of net cash flows of a project with the PV of the NINV

NINVNCF

n

ttt

r1 1

IRR Characteristics

• IRR > k acceptable• Considers the time value of money• Unusual CF pattern can result in multiple

rates of return. more than one sign change• If the NPV and IRR criteria disagree, NPV

is preferred.• Always agree if NPV > 0, IRR > k; and if

NPV < 0, IRR < k• IRR assumes CF is reinvested at IRR. • Interpreted easier than NPV• Does not consider the value of real options

Calculation of NPV and IRR Using TVM Tables

• This example is on page 308 of MMK 9th edition. It is Project B in Table 9-1.

• NINV and NCF’s:• CF0 or NINV -$50,000• CF1 5,000• CF2 10,000• CF3 15,000• CF4 15,000• CF5 25,000• CF6 30,000

Net Present Value Calculation

• For this example:

NINVtak

PVIFn

ttNCFNPV

,1

738,7$000,50

000,30000,25

000,15000,15

000,10000,5

6%,145%,14

4%,143%,14

2%,141%,14

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIFNPV

Calculate IRR Using Tables (1)

• Find the discount rate that makes NPV=0

• Try 16% as the discount rate:

30.852,3$000,50

000,30000,25

000,15000,15

000,10000,5

6%,165%,16

4%,163%,16

2%,161%,16

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIFNPV

Calculate IRR Using Tables (2)

• Try 20% as the discount rate:

66.880,2$000,50

000,30000,25

000,15000,15

000,10000,5

6%,205%,20

4%,203%,20

2%,201%,20

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIF

PVIFPVIFNPV

Calculate IRR Using Tables (3)

• Since we have the zero NPV bracketed using 16% and 20% as discount rates, we can interpolate.

• 16% ?% 20%

3,852.30 0.00

3,852.30 6,732.96 -2,880.66

18.29%or 1829.0

%16%2096.732,6

30.852,3%16 IRR

Calculate NPV Using Financial Calculator

• Calculator: TI BA II Plus• Clear previous inputs: CE/C, 2nd , CLR

TVM, CF, 2nd, CLR WORK• Inputs: CF 50000 +/- ENTER

5000 ENTER 10000 ENTER 15000 ENTER 2 ENTER 25000 ENTER 30000 ENTER NPV 14 ENTER CPT (Ans: 7,738.23)

Calculate IRR Using Financial Calculator

• Use the same steps for inputting cash flows as for the NPV calculation.

• Press IRR and then CPT

• Answer on screen: 18.1950

Profitability Index

• Ratio of the PV of future cash flows over the life of the project to the NINV

NINV

NCF

PI

n

ttk1 1

PI Characteristics

• PI > 1 acceptable

• Considers the time value of money

• CFs reinvested at k

• If the NPV and PI criteria disagree, with no capital rationing, the NPV is preferred.

• Relative measure showing wealth increase per dollar of investment

• Preferred under capital rationing

Payback Period

• Number of years for the cumulative net cash flows from a project to equal the initial cash outlay

Net InvestmentAnnual net CF

PB =

When net CFs are unequal, When net CFs are unequal, interpolation is required.interpolation is required.

PB Characteristics

• Simple

• Provides a measure of project liquidity

• Measure of risk

– risk increases with time

• Not a true measure of profitability

• Ignores CFs after the payback period

• Ignores the time value of money

• May lead to decisions that do not maximize shareholder wealth.

Capital Budgeting Under Capital Rationing

• Calculate the PI for projects

• Order the projects from the highest to the lowest PI

• Accept the projects with the highest PI until the entire capital budget is spent

What Happens When the Next Acceptable Project is too Large?

• Search for another combination of projects that increase the NPV

• Attempt to relax the funds constraint

• Excess funds – Invest in short-term securities– Reduce outstanding debt– C/S dividends

Post-Auditing Implemented Projects

• Find systematic biases or errors of uncertain projected CFs

• Decide whether to abandon or continue projects that have done poorly

Incorporating Inflation into the Capital Budget

• Make sure the cost of capital takes account of inflationary expectations

• Make sure that future CF estimates include expected price and cost increases

Real Options in Capital Projects

• Investment timing option– Evaluate additional

information

• Abandonment option– Reduce downside

risk

• Shutdown options– Temporarily

• Growth options– Research programs,

expand a small plant, or strategic acquisition

• Design-in options– Input/output

flexibility options or expansion options

Real Option Information on the Web

• http://www.mbs.umd.edu/finance/atriantis/RealOptions.html

• http://www.iur.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/forschung/real_options.html

• http://www.real-options.com/

How are Real Options Concepts Being Applied?

• Foundation level of use of real options concept– Increases awareness of value– Options can be created or destroyed– Think about risk and uncertainty– Value of acquiring additional information

• Analytical tool– Option pricing models

• Value the option characteristics of projects• Analyzing various project opportunities

International Capital Budgeting

• Find the PV of the foreign CFs denominated in the foreign currency and discounted by the foreign country’s cost of capital.

• Convert the PV of the CFs to the home country’s currency.

– multiplying by spot exchange rate

• Subtract the parent company’s NINV from the PVNCFh to get the NPV.

Amount and Timing of Foreign CFs

• Differential tax rates

• Legal and political constraints on CF

• Government-subsidized loans

Small Firms

• Should be the same as large firms

• Discrepancies– Lack experience to implement procedures– Expertise stretched too thin– Have cash shortages

• Focus on the PB

Equivalent Annual Annuity Method (1)

• For selecting a project where the alternatives have unequal lives

• 1. Find the NPV of each alternative

• 2. For each alternative, let the NPV from step 1 be a PVAN. Then, solve for the PMT amount. Let PMT=EAN.

nk

nk

a

a

PVIFA

PVANPMT

PVIFAPMTPVAN

,

,

Equivalent Annual Annuity Method (2)

• 3. Assume that the PMT amounts continue forever (a perpetuity). Find the PVPER for each alternative.

• 4. Select the alternative with the largest PVPER.

• Suggested HW in Appendix 9A: 1.d, 2, and 3.

ak

PMTPVPER