Canadian Travel to the U.S.

Canadian Travel to the U.S.

Presented by:

MARK BROWNOffice of Travel and Tourism IndustriesInternational Trade AdministrationU.S. Department of CommerceOctober 2012

Presented to:

Discover America Committee--CANADA

2Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

Agenda for Today

• Fun Facts about Canada• Big to Small

– Global travel trends– Canada outbound volume and trends– Canada to the U.S. volume and trends– Canada’s importance to the U.S. travel industry– Visitation to U.S. states– Canadian visitor profile update and trends

• Looking ahead• Update• Q & A


Did You Know?Canada Myth-Buster Style

• China, China, ChinaCompared to China, Canada’s 2011 volume is 19X, spending is 3X, and visitor volume growth to 2016 should be 2X. The bulk of Canada visits are “influence-able.” Similar for China???

• U.K., U.K., U.K.More Canadian air travelers to the U.S. than visitors from the U.K. Inbound is flat, just like their apartments.

• Canada is 1-1-1#1 visitors ranking#1 visitor spending ranking (attained in 2007)#1 travel balance of trade surplus ranking (attained in 2008)

• Best “Geo Equity”All U.S. states benefit from Canadian travelers. Best geo-equity of any country.


OTTI’s Canada Travel Program

• Dedicated OTTI Research Analyst.

• Monthly U.S. Inbound / Outbound visitor volume by travel segments(with ongoing summary).

• Annual Report (comprehensive visitor profile).

• Dedicated section on TINET website. Substantial addition of historical tables and analyses.

• Nurture relationships with Statistics Canada, CTC, CB-C, CS offices, DiscoverAmerica Committee-Canada.

• Travel & Tourism Advisory Board consideration for marketing and policy programs.

• Monitor demographics / economy changes.

• Your head cheerleader as the Travel Promotion Act of 2009 developments unfold.


Global Travel Trends


$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

19

50

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

World Arrivals World Receipts

World Arrivals (millions) World Receipts ($billions)

1950 - 1980 1981 - 2012

World Tourism Arrivals & Receipts(1980-2011)

Source: U.N. World Tourism Organization

2011982m

2011$1030b


Top Ten Country Rankings of GlobalVisitors and Receipts

All Countries $1,030 All Countries 982

1 United States $116 11.3% France 80 8.1%2 Spain $60 5.8% United States 62 6.3%3 France $54 5.2% China 58 5.9%4 China $49 4.7% Spain 57 5.8%5 Italy $43 4.2% Italy 46 4.7%6 Germany $39 3.8% Turkey 29 3.0%7 United Kingdom $36 3.5% United Kingdom 29 3.0%8 Australia $31 3.0% Germany 28 2.9%9 Macau (2010) $28 2.7% Malaysia 25 2.5%

10 Hong Kong (China) $27 2.6% Mexico 23 2.4%

Destination 2011 World Destination 2011 WorldRank Country Receipts* Share Country Visitors Share

($bil) (%) (mil) (%)

Source: U.N. World Tourism Organization.* Latest data available and excludes air passenger fares ($36.6 billion for U.S. alone in 2011). World shares based on unrounded data.

The United States leads the world in global travel and tourism exports (spending receipts) and ranks 2rd in global visitation.


5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

19,113,000

8.67

21,337,000

12,666,000

millions of Canada visitors

Traveler Volume from Canada to the U.S.(stays of 1 or more nights)

Source: Statistics Canada.

2012 YTD INCREASE is 5.1% through June.


Trends in Travel from/to Canada(stays of 1 or more nights)


10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Canada Outbound to U.S.

Canada Inbound from U.S.

millions of travelers


Canada Outbound / U.S. Shareannual growth rates 1999-2011--1+ nights

Canadians have been traveling outside Canada! U.S. performance trailed non-U.S. performance in 9 of the past 13 years. Not so the last two years.


Canadian Outbound Traveler Volume(percent change same month from previous year)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

To USA To Other

07 / 06 08 / 07 09 / 08 10 / 09 11 / 10 12 / 11

Outbound to the U.S. is often inconsistent with outbound to the rest of the world in magnitude…and sometimes in direction of change. Outbound to the U.S. was 70% of all outbound in 2011—a proportion that was higher a decade ago.


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

FE

B

AP

R

JU

N

AU

G

OC

T

DE

C

% Change 12-Mo. Avg.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Canada to U.S.12-month moving average

The 12 consecuting months of decline in 2008/2009 was matched by 8 consecutive increases in 2009/2010. The growth is losing momentum…


Where are Canadians Traveling?

• Nearly 70% to U.S….after U.S., all other countries are 1.0 million or fewer. US growth of 2.5M (17%).

• Top countries: GROWTH RATE– France 445,000 93%– UK 235,000 38%– Cuba 536,000 338%– Mexico 337,000 121%– Dominican Republic 412,000 294%– China 384,000 251%– Italy 169,000 67%– Hong Kong 94,000 51%– Germany 114,000 86%– Jamaica90,000 87%Source: UNWTO. Statistical Compendium database. Growth and rate reflect change from 1995-1997 average to 2006-2008

average.


International Total * 62,711 5% 6%1 Canada 21,337 7% 4%2 Mexico 13,491 0% 5%

Overseas ** 27,883 6% 9%3 United Kingdom 3,835 -0% -2%4 Japan 3,250 -4% 14%5 Germany 1,824 6% 12%6 Brazil 1,508 26% 19%7 France 1,504 12% 5%8 South Korea 1,145 3% 12%9 China (PRC) 1,089 36% 42%10 Australia 1,039 15% 6%

Origin of Visitor 2011 2011/201012/11 May YTD

(000s) (% change) (% change)

Top Origin Markets forInternational Travelers to the U.S.

* International travelers include all countries generating visitors to the U.S.** Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico. Record year for travel to U.S.


11 Italy 892 6% -1%

12 Spain 700 9% -5%13 India 663 2% 12%14 Netherlands 601 5% 3%15 Venezuela 561 14% 21%

16 Argentina 512 17% 20%17 Colombia 497 0% 15%18 Switzerland 477 22% 8%19 Sweden 439 18% 3% 20 Ireland 347 -4% -7%

Origin of Visitor 2011 2011/2010 12/11 May YTD

(000s) (% change) (% change)

Top Origin Markets forInternational Travelers to the U.S.

Record year for travel to U.S.


Total Travel Record YearReceipts Travel Record

Origin Country 2011 Receipts Set($bil) ($bil)

Top Ten Travel Export Markets(2011 & record receipts/year)

Canada $24.0 2011Japan $14.8 $17.8 1995United Kingdom $12.0 $16.7 2008Mexico $9.2 $9.7 2008Brazil $8.5 2011

China $7.7 2011Germany $6.3 $6.7 2008France $5.0 2011Australia $5.0 2011India $4.4 2011

U.S. TOTAL $152.7 2011


The Algebra of Canadian Spending

2011 visitor spending total change 15%

Total change depends on:Visitor volume 7%Exchange rate 4%Per-visitor spending 4%

Per-visitor spending depends on:Leisure / business mix B flatTravel costs upPre-trip intent up

Pre-trip intent depends on:Stay length upActivities flatPaid lodging upShopping upetc. ??


Importance of the Canadian Travel Market to the U.S.

(2011)• Canada accounts for 33.4% of U.S. international visitors

(trending higher) and 15.6% of visitor spending (trending higher).

• …and...– For many destinations, Canadian visitation occurs in non-peak seasons

and helps to distribute visitors more uniformly throughout the year.– All states benefit from Canadian travelers! Geographic equity is best

among origin countries (27 states of 2+% of total visitors).– Travel exports are 7% of all exports and 43% of services exports to

Canada.

• Rankings:– #1 visitors (21.34 M) (next is Mexico, 13.5M)– #1 spending ($23.96 B) (next is Japan, $14.8B)– #1 travel trade surplus ($16.31 B) (next is Japan, $9.8B)


Key Travel Characteristics of Canadian Travelers

(2011)• Main Trip Purpose

– 64% Leisure (52% holiday, vacation; 5% 2nd home; 6% events) (up)– 15% Visit Friends or Relatives (VFR) (down)– 11% Business (5% meetings; 5% convention; 2% other work) (same)– 10% Other (5% shop; 2% personal; 1% transit; 1% study; 1% other) (up)

• Origin Province– Ontario 39% of population but 43% of travelers. BC also higher share of

visitors than population (13% vs. 18%).

• State Destinations– A few destinations dominate the numbers. Florida is 17% of visitors, but

37% of visitor-nights due to snowbirds.– Mixed performance among state visitors, visits, and spending. 36 states

up in visitor volume. Pacific, New England, East South Central regions down.


Visitor-U.S. State Visitors Nights Spending

(millions) (millions) ($billions)

TOTAL U.S. (NET) 21.34 176.11 $16.47

1 New York 3.70 10.28 1.392 Florida 3.32 59.62 4.033 Washington 2.59 7.49 0.764 Michigan (1) 1.54 4.55 0.445 Nevada (1) 1.48 6.94 1.37

6 California (2) 1.48 13.07 1.387 Maine 0.95 3.14 0.358 Pennsylvania 0.93 2.24 0.269 Montana 0.89 3.41 0.31

10 North Dakota (2) 0.77 1.58 0.25

Top U.S. State DestinationsVisitors, Visitor-Nights, and Spending (2011)


Key Travel Characteristics of Canadian Travelers (continued) (2011)

• Transportation (mode of entry into U.S.)– 59% auto (35% plane; 3% bus; 3% other).– 71% of business travelers flew.

• Accommodations– 60% hotel/motel (13% friends/relatives; 10% camp/trailer/cabin).– Hotel/motel differs by purpose (90% bus.; 59% leisure; 30% vfr).

• Stay Length– 35% of Canadian state-visits are day trips.– Among overnight trips:

• 11% are 1-night trips.• 6% are 3 weeks or longer. 3+ weeks accounts for 42% of visitor-nights.• 8.25 nights average stay length, 9.74 leisure…but this average is

misleading…


Canadian Nights in the U.S.(among overnight LEISURE visitors--67% of total state visits—2011)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4-6 7-9 10-13 14-16 17-20 21-30 31-59 60+

% of total 1+ night leisure trips

mean avg.=9.74 nights

mode = 4-6 nights

median avg. = 4 nights


Key Travel Characteristics ofCanadian Travelers -- continued (2011)

• Spending (source: Statistics Canada; all records)

– $16.5 billion (excludes fares to travel to the U.S.)– $1,624 per party– $770 per visitor– $93 per visitor per night

– Of the 76% of spending reported with detail:• 33% accommodations• 22% food & beverage• 19% other (souvenirs, shopping, etc)• 14% transportation (in U.S.)• 12% entertainment


Sum of all 18 activities 353% 253% 352% 393% 217%

Go Shopping 75% 53% 70% 79% 76%Go Sightseeing 44% 31% 35% 52% 23%Visit Friends Or Relatives 35% 14% 95% 24% 25%Participate Sports/Out. Activities 29% 10% 24% 37% 11%Go To A Bar Or Night Club 23% 36% 14% 24% 14%

Visit A Historic Site 21% 18% 18% 25% 10%Visit A Nat. Or State Nature Park 18% 8% 15% 23% 8%Visit A Museum Or Art Gallery 16% 13% 15% 19% 7%Go To A Casino 15% 8% 7% 19% 10%Attend Cultural Events 13% 9% 10% 15% 6%

Canadian Activity Participation Rateswhile in the U.S. (2011)

Activity Total Business VFR PleasureOther


Visit A Theme Park 12% 5% 7% 16% 2%Visit A Zoo, Aquar. / Bot. Garden 11% 6% 9% 13% 4%Golfing 9% 4% 6% 12% 2%Attend Sports Events 9% 7% 8% 10% 4%Attend Festivals Or Fairs 7% 5% 7% 9% 2%

Water sports (Canoe, etc.) 6% 2% 5% 7% 2%Fishing 2% 0% 2% 2% 0%Downhill Skiing Or Snow Boarding 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%Hunting 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

No Activity Stated 7% 25% 4% 4% 9%

Activity Participation Rates (2011) (continued)

Activity Total Business VFR PleasureOther


Outlook for Canada Travel to the United States

http://redkid.net/generator/8ball/


5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

19,113,000

8.67

21,337,000

12,666,000

millions of Canada visitors

Traveler Volume from Canada to the U.S.(stays of 1 or more nights)



Factors for 2013 and BeyondCanada Economy

– Unemployment 7.2% and still on downward trend with ups and downs.

– 2012Q1 GDP growth about 2% annualized average, similar to previous quarter, but lower than 2010’s 2.5% for the year and 2011’s 2.2%.• Weak U.S. demand for exports (U.S. economy; exchange rate lower makes imports more

expensive)• Overstretched households

– Household finances??? Conflicting data.

– Near-retirees on trackregarding retirement planning.

– Inflation 3.0% in 2011%, butmonthly increases are 1.5%-2.5% (annualized rate).

– Goods exports to U.S. up 14%in 2011, services up 9%.


0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

95-01

95-04

95-07

95-10

96-01

96-04

96-07

96-10

97-01

97-04

97-07

97-10

98-01

98-04

98-07

98-10

99-01

99-04

99-07

99-10

00-01

00-04

00-07

00-10

01-01

01-04

01-07

01-10

02-01

02-04

02-07

02-10

03-01

03-04

03-07

03-10

04-01

04-04

04-07

04-10

05-01

05-04

05-07

05-10

06-01

06-04

06-07

06-10

07-01

07-04

07-07

07-10

08-01

08-04

08-07

08-10

09-01

09-04

09-07

09-10

10-01

10-04

10-07

10-10

11-01

11-04

11-07

11-10

12-01

12-04

12-07

12-10

13-01

2007-11

2002-01

Canada to U.S.$

2009-03

2007-01

2010-122012-07

Factors for 2012 and BeyondExchange Rate


Factors for 2013 and Beyond

• +- Economy

• + Currency exchange rate

• +- WHTI (whitty what?)

• + Air Passenger Taxes in Western European countries

• +- Promoting the USA (TPA: ++; states/cities: --)

• — Low and slowing growth of U.S. economy.• + New duty-free limits (greater than 24-hour stay; June 1,

2012)


Updates from Miscellaneous Sources


Corporation for Travel Promotion

• Operating as Brand USA

• www.the BrandUSA.com

• ESTA fees collected over the past 12 months is sufficient to provide the maximum funds available to the CTP per TPA legislation, subject to matching fund requirements.

• May 2012 campaign launch included Canada, U.K., and Japan.

• $3-$4 million in Canada market!

• Likely offsets declines in internationalmarketing by U.S. states and cities.


Canada on…WWW.TINET.ITA.DOC.GOV



This presentation will be added here



Canada 2011 Rankings: Visitors: 1 $$$: 1 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19)

Travelers Spending Country Economics

To

tal O

utb

ou

nd

T

RA

VE

LE

RS

(m

)

% C

hang

e

Vis

ito

r V

olu

me

To

US

A (

m)

% C

hang

e

US

A S

har

e o

f O

utb

ou

nd

(%

)

To

tal O

utb

ou

nd

S

PE

ND

ING

($b

)(e

xcl.

pass

. far

es)

% C

hang

e

To

US

A (

exp

ort

s)(t

rave

l rec

eipt

s +

pass

fare

.) (

$b)

% C

hang

e

US

A S

har

e o

f O

utb

ou

nd

(exc

l. pa

ss. f

ares

)C

urr

ency

E

xch

ang

e R

ate

$US

/ co

untr

y un

it

% C

hang

e

Rea

l GD

P%

Cha

nge

GD

P /

Cap

ita

(000

s of

con

stan

t $U

S)

Infl

atio

n%

Cha

nge

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illion

s)

Go

vern

men

t D

ebt

to G

DP

Rat

io

Sto

ck M

arke

t P

erfo

rman

ce

Country??? >>>Canada formula Canada formula formula Canada Canada formula formula Canada formula Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada

1980 - - - - - - 11.239 - - - - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.8553 - - - 2.2 $23.0 10.2 7.5 24.5 0 20)1981 - - - - - - 10.838 -3.6 - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.8341 -2.5 3.5 $23.2 12.5 7.6 24.8 01982 - - - - - - 10.267 -5.3 - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.8105 -2.8 -2.9 $22.2 10.8 11.1 25.1 01983 - - - - - - 11.816 15.1 - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.8114 0.1 2.7 $22.9 5.8 11.9 25.3 01984 - - - - - - 10.891 -7.8 - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.7722 -4.8 5.8 $22.7 4.3 11.3 25.6 01985 - - - - - - 10.721 -1.6 - - - na - - - - - - - - - - - - $0.7323 -5.2 4.8 $22.4 4.0 10.6 25.8 01986 - - - - - - 10.793 0.7 - - - na - - - $3.25 - - - - - - $0.7197 -1.7 2.4 $22.5 4.2 9.7 26.1 01987 - - - - - - 12.253 13.5 - - - na - - - $3.97 22 - - - $0.7542 4.8 4.3 $24.7 4.4 8.8 26.4 01988 - - - - - - 13.700 11.8 - - - na - - - $4.89 23 - - - $0.8125 7.7 5.0 $27.8 4.0 7.8 26.8 711989 - - - - - - 15.326 11.9 - - - na - - - $6.20 27 - - - $0.8446 3.9 2.6 $29.4 5.0 7.5 27.2 721990 - - - - - - 17.263 12.6 - - - na - - - $8.07 30 - - - $0.8571 1.5 0.2 $29.2 4.8 8.2 27.6 751991 - - - - - - 19.113 10.7 - - - na - - - $9.54 18 - - - $0.8728 1.8 -2.1 $28.6 5.6 10.3 28.0 821992 - - - - - - 18.598 -2.7 - - - na - - - $9.28 -3 - - - $0.8273 -5.2 0.9 $26.7 1.5 11.2 28.3 901993 - - - - - - 17.293 -7.0 - - - na - - - $8.65 -7 - - - $0.7751 -6.3 2.3 $25.2 1.9 11.4 28.7 961994 - - - - - - 14.970 -13.4 - - - na - - - $7.44 -14 - - - $0.7323 -5.5 4.8 $24.4 0.1 10.4 29.0 981995 18.21 - - - 14.663 -2.1 81 $10.26 - - - $7.49 1 60.5 $0.7286 -0.5 2.8 $24.7 2.2 9.5 29.3 1021996 18.97 4.2 15.301 4.4 81 $11.25 9.7 $8.24 10 61.3 $0.7334 0.7 1.6 $25.0 1.6 9.6 29.6 1021997 19.11 0.7 15.127 -1.1 79 $11.48 2.0 $8.31 1 60.5 $0.7222 -1.5 4.2 $25.2 1.6 9.1 29.9 961998 17.65 -7.7 13.430 -11.2 76 $10.85 -5.5 $7.72 -7 57.6 $0.6741 -6.7 4.1 $23.9 1.0 8.3 30.1 951999 18.37 4.1 14.115 5.1 77 $11.50 6.0 $8.28 7 60.5 $0.6731 -0.2 5.5 $25.1 1.7 7.6 30.4 912000 19.18 4.4 14.667 3.9 76 $12.44 8.2 $8.83 7 60.1 $0.6734 0.0 5.2 $26.7 2.7 6.8 30.6 82 8.93 2001 18.36 -4.3 13.527 -7.8 74 $11.96 -3.8 $8.36 -5 58.6 $0.6457 -4.1 1.8 $25.5 2.5 7.3 31.0 83 7.69 2002 17.71 -3.6 13.025 -3.7 74 $11.72 -2.0 $7.99 -5 57.2 $0.6372 -1.3 2.9 $25.5 2.3 7.7 31.3 81 6.61 2003 17.74 0.2 12.666 -2.8 71 $13.34 13.8 $9.17 15 55.8 $0.7137 12.0 1.9 $29.1 2.7 7.6 31.6 77 8.22 2004 19.60 10.5 13.856 9.4 71 $15.52 16.4 $10.49 14 55.8 $0.7686 7.7 3.1 $32.1 1.8 7.2 31.9 73 9.25 2005 21.10 7.7 14.862 7.3 70 $18.02 16.1 $11.72 12 51.3 $0.8252 7.4 3.0 $35.2 2.2 6.8 32.2 72 11.27 2006 22.73 7.7 15.992 7.6 70 $20.50 13.8 $13.41 14 51.6 $0.8816 6.8 2.8 $38.1 2.0 6.3 32.5 70 12.91 2007 25.16 10.7 17.759 11.0 71 $24.70 20.5 $16.41 22 53.5 $0.9310 5.6 2.2 $40.7 2.1 6.1 32.9 67 13.83 2008 27.03 7.4 18.915 6.5 70 $27.20 10.1 $18.33 12 48.6 $0.9372 0.7 0.5 $41.5 2.4 6.2 33.3 71 8.99 2009 26.20 -3.1 17.977 -5.0 69 $24.20 -11.0 $16.08 -12 54.6 $0.8748 -6.7 -2.8 $36.2 0.3 8.3 33.7 83 11.75 2010 - - - - - - 19.964 1.1 - - - $29.60 22.3 $20.91 30 44.7 $0.9707 11.0 3.2 $41.7 1.8 8.0 34.1 84 14.43 2011 - - - - - - 21.337 6.9 - - - $33.00 11.5 $23.96 15 40.1 $1.0296 6.1 2.1 $45.1 2.9 7.6 34.4 84 11.84 2012f - - - - - - 22.404 5.0 - - - - - - - - - $23.46 -2 - - - $1.0292 0.0 1.9 $46.0 2.1 7.7 34.7 84 - - -2013f - - - - - - 23.375 4.3 - - - - - - - - - $24.26 3 - - - $1.0198 -0.9 2.5 $47.0 2.0 7.2 34.9 82 - - -2014f - - - - - - 24.310 4.0 - - - - - - - - - $25.24 4 - - - $1.0108 -0.9 2.5 $48.0 2.0 6.6 35.2 80 - - -2015f - - - - - - 25.120 3.3 - - - - - - - - - $26.08 3 - - - $1.0018 -0.9 2.4 $48.7 2.0 6.2 35.5 76 - - -2016f - - - - - - 25.874 3.0 - - - - - - - - - $26.86 3 $0.9929 -0.9 2.2 $49.1 2.0 6.1 35.9 73 - - -

period 09/99 11/99 11/99 11/99 11/99 11/99

CAGR 3.6% 4.2% 11.1% 11.2% 6.0% 1.3%

21) CANADA 09 / 08 10 / 09 11 / 10 12 / 11 mo share

Jan -12.5% 13.5% 7.2% 9.3% 6.5%Feb -8.7% 8.1% 7.9% 8.7% 6.0% I-94 AddressMar -13.2% 7.7% 6.0% 6.3% 9.3% Canada 091011 Canada 091011 Canada 091011 Canada 060708Apr -0.8% 12.6% 10.1% 3.2% 8.9% 1 na 0.0% NY 16.4% 67.9%May -5.9% 16.5% 5.3% 8.7% 2 na 0.0% To be added. FL 14.2% 3.6%Jun -13.3% 12.3% 7.9% 6.7% 3 na 0.0% WA 11.2% 3.3%Jul -8.2% 16.4% 9.8% 10.8% 4 na 0.0% MI 7.9% 2.7%Aug -5.6% 8.4% 6.0% 13.2% 5 na 0.0% CA 6.5% 2.4%Sep 2.8% 7.3% 8.9% 8.3% 6 na 0.0% NV 5.5% 2.1%Oct -0.8% 12.0% 5.0% 7.7% 7 na 0.0% ME 4.8% 2.1%Nov 5.1% 10.1% 3.1% 7.5% 8 na 0.0% PA 4.3% 1.6%Dec 9.3% 8.0% 4.8% 6.4% 9 na 0.0% VT 4.1% 1.1%YTD -11.8% 9.5% 6.9% 7.9% APR 10 na 0.0% ND 3.5% 1.0%

24-mo 18-mo 12-mo 6-mo 3-mo Top 10: 0% Top 10: 78% Top 10: 88%8.3% 7.0% 6.5% 5.7% 5.7% Not Rptd 0% unknown na

Key Share / Ranking Metrics Canada 59% 34) % Vacation / Leisure Travelers (main purpose) 091011 Canada 0Canada 3.0% 26) 2009 Global OUTBOUND Travelers: SHARE of 71 Canada 32% 36) Export % of GDP (year varies) RANK exemptCanada 7 27) 2009 Global OUTBOUND Travelers: RANK of 71 Canada -$ 37) 2010 $$$ / visitor: SIAT: TOTAL TRIP of 19 Canada 47) Target Country?Canada 3.2% 28) 2011 Global OUTBOUND $$$ SHARE OF 182 Canada 612$ 38) 2010 $$$ / visitor: SIAT: IN THE USA 19 of 19 Canada DOC?: Yes. Export size.Canada 6 29) 2011 Global OUTBOUND $$$ RANK OF 182 Canada -$ 39) 2010 $$$ / visitor: SIAT: AIRFARE of 19 Canada BrandUSA?: YesCanada 34.0% 30) 2011 USA Visitor: SHARE of 217 Canada 77$ 40) 2010 $$$ / visitor / night SIAT: IN THE USA 16 of 19 Currency Canadian Dollar2012-03 $1.0012

Canada 1 31) 2011 USA Visitor: RANK of 217 Canada 1,047$ 41) 2010 $$$ / visitor: BEA TOTAL RECEIP TS 19 of 33

Canada 15.7% 32) 2011 USA Spending (total exports): SHARE Canada 833$ 42) 2010 $$$ / visitor: BEA IN USA RECEIP TS 19 of 33

Canada 1 33) 2011 USA Spending: RANK of 20 (13 countries later in 2012) Canada 215$ 43) 2010 $$$ / visitor: BEA P ass. Fare RECEIP TS 16 of 33

Country commentary and travel forecast positives and negatives Canada

Available Space call 1-800-555-RENTME!

United StatesFranceUnited KingdomCubaMexico

Places Visited By These Travelers

Near doubling since 2001 despite 25% drop in 2008 then resumed fantastic appreciation. Higher since March-highest in 15 yrs.

Dominican RepublicChinaItalyHong Kong SARGermany

Base: Destinations 108% of origin in 2007.

TREND through 2008: 2010 Canada volume broke 1991 record. Growth to all top-30 destinations. After top three destinations, big growth to #4 Cuba (+338%), # 6 Dominican Republic (+294%), #7 China (+251%), #14 Thailand (+168%), #12 India (+167%), #19 Costa Rica (+161%), and #20 Korea (+139%). No declines in volume to top 40 or so countries.

SIAT ANY Dest.States The World

SIAT MAIN Dest.

Geo-EquityVWP (visa)?

46) Country Commentary: Canada

TRAVEL FORECAST POSITIVES: 27 consecutive months of year-over-year visitor volume grow th. Government and households in better f inancial condition than in most countries. Long-term stability of f inances of both is envy of many countries. Low -to-moderate GDP grow th outlook should hold up if U.S. economy holds up. No change in USA 70% or so share of total outbound. Currency exchange rate remains at par at this time. January 2012 volume up a surprising 8.7%!

TRAVEL FORECAST NEGATIVES: 2011 underperformed versus the Spring 2010 forecast, and the 24/18/12/6/3 month moving averages are consistently trending dow nw ard but remain positive at 2011 year end. Taxes and fees pushing many travelers to USA or abroad to USA airports. Often taxes and fees exceed the base air ticket. Overcapacity and price discounting to w arm w eather competitors in the Caribbean. Industry concerns remain over border entry-exit issues and delays. Proposed visitation fees and suggestion on visa requirement are potential issues.

ECONOMIST-THE WORLD 2012: Economic headwinds from south of the border and lower global commodity prices will hold back the economy to growth of 2.0%. The government is pursuing closer economic ties with major overseas markets to diversify away from its dependence on US consumers. A deal with the EU may be reached in 2012.ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT: noneBUSINESS MONITOR ONLINE: GDP growth in 2011 was 2.3%, forecast of+1.8% for 2012 and +2.4% in 2013.DOC CS OFFICES: 2011. Total outbound continues to increase. Continued concerns about border hassles and delays, proposed visitation fees, and suggestion on visa requirements. Hot destinations are Cuba, DR, and Mexico..over capacity has resulted in extreme price competition among major tour operators. UK is a cold destination due to perceived high cost and reduced Visit Britain promotions. Air capacity is increasing, as is competition, especially from shorter routes from Toronto. Taxes and fees are often higher than the base airfare. P roposed air traveler fee will only worsen this. Result is increase in Canadians driving to US border airports and flying from there and shift back from air to rubber tire traffic. Rising fuel costs a major concern. USA marketing is in decline, many DMOs have dropped Canadian representation. Destinations need to focus on frequency of visits, not # of nights or spending. More potential exists. Competitor countries' marketing is increasing...exceptions are UK and Ireland. the April Federal election will reduce outbound travel in the short term until a stable solution is achieved. Gulf oil spill will inhibit some Canadians from travel to those regions. Strength of the Canadian dollar will encourage travel, especially cross-border shopping trips. Weather forecast is for a cool summer in Ontario region...opportunity to push value to go south.OTHER: MVB: 2011. Obama proposed charge of $5.50 per air and sea passenger to the USA in FY2012 budget proposal. (8.6% in 2010). Canada TTB: 2010 bookings up 4%-9%; strong Q-Q3, slower in Q4. Cautious optimism for low growth in first half of 2011. Motivators include the exchange rate, promotion by U.S. destinations and businesses, and the economy in Canada. Top deterrents were the level of promotion by other long-haul destinations, followed by the collection of personal information.


Summary of Key Findings

• Global Travel: 2010-2030 annual growth to decline from 4.4% to 2.2%.

• Canada Travel: Strong 5+% continued growth YTD (Jul) to USA following 7% continued growth in 2011. Non-U.S.2011 also up. New USA visitor volume annual records expected!

• Canada Rankings: #1 visitors, #1 spending, #1 travel trade balance.

• Profile: travel attributes mostly stable. Watch increases in travel party spending, casino, souvenir/shopping spending, average stay length. Decline in outdoor activities. ALL these trends continued in 2011!!!

• Forecast: Favorable outlook>>economy, currency exchange rate, TPA!!

• WHTI: Phase III June 2009 full implementation now 3 years behind us.

• Travel Promotion Act: Brand USA multi-million marketing launch in May 2011. MVB is head cheerleader for promoting travel to the USA.


Summary of Why Canada!

• Top dog: #1 in visitors and visitor spending and travel trade balance.

• Geo-equity: Best of any visitor origin country.

• On the Radar Screen: White House favored Sector; BrandUSA marketing.

• Shoulder season: helps fulfill many destinations’ expansion goals.

• Open wallets: $$$ per-visitor per-night big growth in 2011. Comparisons to other countries is not valid due to short-term stays bringing down average. Emphasize ROI (not R) or $/V/night (not $/V)

• Economics: Economy O.K., but looking sprightly compared to Europe.

• International!!!!: Canada is a big part of the general story of international (growing) importance. Is the DOMESTIC industry mature from an industry life-stage perspective??? Most of the messages coming from the US Travel Association pertain to international travel. 4% of travelers/17% of traveler spending.


Thank You!

Questions?

MARK BROWNOffice of Travel and Tourism IndustriesInternational Trade AdministrationU.S. Department of CommercePhone: [email protected]://tinet.ita.doc.gov

Canadian Travel to the U.S.

Documents

Transcript of Canadian Travel to the U.S.