Can the growing trend towards an Urbanised Globe be Sustainable? The ticking time-bomb of Developing...

8/8/2019 Can the growing trend towards an Urbanised Globe be Sustainable? The ticking time-bomb of Developing World slu

1/16

1 | P a g e

Name: Edward Byrne

Student Number: 0434964

Seminar Group: 7, Blanche Cameron

Date of Module: February 2010, B3

Date of Submission: 12th of April 2010

Can the growing trend towards an Urbanised Globe be Sustainable?The ticking time-bomb of Developing World slums

Introduction:

This essay has been inspired by Chani Leahongs Healthy Cities lecture and Chris Scotts paper,Urbanisation and health within the UK, both from the B3 module in February 2010 (Scott 2007) &(Leahong 2010). In both discussions the roadmap towards a sustainable urban environment istackled. Scott reveals the facets of the subject and Leahong seeks solutions predominantly through

a better understanding and realisation of Integrated Infrastructure Masterplanning andcoordination. The prevailing image is of sustainable architecture designed and implemented in asustainable urban context (Barthon & Tsourou 2000). The structural reconfiguration that isproposed demands huge financial, intellectual and material resources and as such the prospectivechanges required for such a proposal is daunting. With this in mind I wanted to draw attention in abroad sense to the currents state of affairs across the globe and see how realistic such changesare. These changes are gearing us towards a sustainable urban context but what is a sustainableurban context?

The trend of an urbanising globe is readily accepted within the modus operandi of futuresustainable development, probably borne out of necessity; however I'd like to look into this trendand see if it is in fact reasonable to expect it to be sustainable. The dominant discourse eulogisesthe perceived benefits of the urban environment (UNPF 2007, NSS 2002), where access to

centralised services, infrastructure, health care, education, employment opportunities andprofessional services provides for a greater affluence than would be the case in a rural setting.This perception has perhaps fuelled a mass migration of rural inhabitants towards urban centres.However is urbanisation an index of development or stress?

Context:

Currently the Earths population is roughly 6.82 billion and is projected to reach 9,000,000,000people by 2050 (UNPD/DESA 2009).

First WaveUp to now the increases in population have developed in urbanisation waves, the first wave wasexperienced in Europe and saw an explosion of population from circa 180 million to 400 million

during the 19th Century, corresponding with the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions. This wavecontinued through to about 1950 before the rate of growth slowed down and at that stage it hadextended into North America thereby establishing what is now considered the developed world(See Appendix 1). The developed world population stands at 1.23 billion or 18% of the globalpopulation (UNPF 2007).

Second WaveThe second wave involves the developing world (See Appendix 1), is happening at a rate unseenpreviously and is expected to continue until right into the second half of this century. The rate ofgrowth in urban areas is twice that seen in rural areas (UNPF 2007).


2/16

2 | P a g e

Developed countries are characterised by their urbanised population, constituting 75 % of theiroverall population in 2009. Developing countries have a smaller proportion of urban populationranging from 29 to 45% of their overall population - but catching up (UNPF 2007). See fig. 1.

Fig 1Source:United Nations Population Fund (2007), The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential forUrban Growth, available from http://www.unfpa.org/pds/

Urban Population is growing faster than world population as a whole.Two out of three urban dwellers live in developing regions... (UNPF 1996)

Boundaries:

While the overall trend of growth is accepted the fundamental issue of growth in urban areas willbe of primary interest here. We will lightly touch on the social impacts of rural migration to urban

centres in order to underline the nature of urban centres and their ecological footprint. The focuswill be on the environmental impacts of a global urban populous, whether urban growth on thecurrent scale is sustainable. The analysis of cities in this respect will be narrowed to their percapita impact or ecological footprint.

We began by evaluating the drivers of rural-urban migration throughout history and in thedeveloping world to understand the trend. We will progress by considering the ecological footprintof cities in general and how they interact in a globalised world. The feasibility and possibility ofcreating sustainable cities will be discussed and then we will finish by measuring the conclusionsfor further research and discussion.


3/16

3 | P a g e

Discussion:

Growth:

Urban growth can be broken into three classifications; migration, natural increase andreclassification of rural areas as urban. The bulk of urban growth constitutes migration from ruralareas (UNPF 2007). This rural urban migration can be characterised by factors representing adrive to pull or push populations into urban centres.

Chinese cities until recently were largely self-sufficient for foodstuff, relying on surrounding farmbelts for food as was the case for medieval city states in Europe (circular metabolism). Moderncities are exemplified by their linear arrangement & metabolism, where modern transport,communications and globalisation extend their boundaries and disconnect them from their locality(Girardet 2008 & Pelsmakers 2005).

Push

The push towards urban centres could be generated by the deterioration of rural areas by theinfrastructure required to maintain fundamentally unsustainable cities. Water quality deteriorationwill undoubtedly occur in a rural area where the nearby city requires the rural watershed to bepolluted by fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides so that the rural landscape can provide the

quantities of food needed for the urban population. Rural migration could be seen as an indicatorof a wider problem with urban centres (Lipton 1980, UNPF 2001 & Diamond 2005).

The motivation to move to urban centres is firmly established by disparity in size between familysizes and farm sizes. In Rwanda for example, the average sized farm-holding fell from 0.09 to 0.07acres between 1988 and 1993. This dwindling parcel of land was expected to feed families ofperhaps 5 people and in reality could only supply 77% of their calorie intake (Diamond 2005 &UNPF 1996).

This scenario is replicated elsewhere in the developing world. The rural migrants arriving intourban centres are generally poor and consequently poverty is increasing more rapidly in urbanareas than in rural areas (Watkins/Oxfam 1995 & UNPF 2007).

Unfortunately cities in the developing world currently experiencing growth are located on areas thatare negatively affected by climate change now and increasingly so in the future (See fig 2. &Appendix 5). They often occupy valuable fertile agricultural land. A worry must be that most UrbanGrowth Boundaries (UGB) have been developed with urban sprawl, car journeys and theeconomics of infrastructure in mind rather than the environmental capacity of the surrounding landitself. (C. Ding (1999), Barredo & Demicheli (2003) and Sjoberg, 0.(1992)). This may have otherunintended consequences (Refer to Appendix 5).


4/16

4 | P a g e

Fig. 2, Large Cities in Relation to Current Climate-related HazardsSource: de Sherbenin, A., A. Schiller, and A. Pulsipher. Forthcoming. "The Vulnerability of Global Cities toClimate Hazards." Environment and Urbanization. (Available on UNPF 2007, page 60 & 61)


5/16

5 | P a g e

PullUrban centres are undoubtedly the drivers of economic growth. Rural migrants look to the lightsfor a future where there may be none at home. The United Nations recognises that the traditionalpull has been eroded by the strengthening push as described above (UNPF 2007).

The prosperity experienced in urban centres does not frequently translate into prosperity for ruralmigrants or much of the urban poor. The new arrivals more often than not will be contained inslums on the outskirts of the official city limits with little or no access to power, clean water,

education, heath services and crucially they will generally not be able to gain meaningful formalemployment (UNPF 1996 & UNPF 2001).

Stemming Growth

Asia (incl.: China & India) accounts for two thirds of the annual urban population growth and assuch most Asian countries have tried to implement population control measures to some degree.These measures have included limits on childbirth, incentivising rural living and simple restriction ofadmission to urban areas with limited or no success (UNPF 1996).

While it must be appreciated that the overall trend is hard to reverse, the implications for anurbanized world will need to be understood.

Urban Footprint:

Global City

Cities as the drivers of economic growth are well understood. They are also well understood as thedrivers of environmental degradation. Developed World cities import their needs from increasinglydistant lands, affecting environments way beyond their national boundaries In a limited way theEcological Footprint, sustainability indicator illustrates this superbly (See figs. 3 below). TheDeveloped World has already established its urban footprint in the developing world, exporting theside-effects of exploitation such as deforestation, erosion & salination of soils, desertification,pollution, reduction of bio-diversity and human health (Girardet 2008 & Wackernagel et al 2000).

Figure 3Source: Mathis Wackernagel, Nicky Chambers & Craig Simmons (2000), Sharing Natures Interest;Ecological Footprints as an Indicator of Sustainability, page 137


6/16

6 | P a g e

Global Impact

What will happen if the developing world brings its cities up to speed in a globalised world?

There are a range of measures for sustainability in this instance we will use the EcologicalFootprint Method. In terms of modern developed countries the average footprint for the developedworld is 4 hectares per capita. This means that the Developed World requires 4.92 billion hectaresof land to supply its material needs. There is 10.2 billion hectares of what is currently considered

usable land providing bio-capacity; woodland, arable land & pasture land (including urban areas).This means that 18% of the people require 48% of the usable land right now (Wackernagel et al2000, WRI 1999 & UNPF 2007).

If developing countries were to urbanise today in 2010 and reach a similar per capita impact, theywould require 22.36 billion hectares or twice the available land without factoring in the demands ofthe Developed World.

If one were to project the needs of a world of 9 billion people, 75% of them urbanised in 2050,based on current developed world consumption levels we would need 36 billion hectares whichneedless to say is three times the available usable land which does not discount the land thatwould be consumed by urban areas.

Even allowing for sustainable productive architecture, the urban context does not seem to besustainable. Unless the per-capita ecological footprint is reduced, the trend of urbanising thedeveloping world seems bleak. When analysed by systems experts, overshoot and collapse hasbeen a consistent outcome on all modelled runs for current trends of development (Meadows et al2005)-refer to appendix 4.

The possibility is further exacerbated by the knowledge that the per capita consumption ofdeveloping countries might rise well beyond the average of 4 hectares when the urban poor arebeing catered for. At the moment they are a salient force unconnected to formal city infrastructure.Should a formalisation occur it will require new housing, new roads, new water connection andtreatment, new sewage treatment and new services and other elements unnamed.

Sustainable Cities

The utilisation of the urban environment for food production and water collection would go someway towards alleviating urban impacts. However the urban context remains the vital cog in thewheel of sustainability.

At present China is developing nearly 100 cities of over 1 million people up until 2020 which shouldconsist of up to 30% of their population at that stage (World Bank 2010). According to HerbertGirardet (2008) Chinas political leaders have taken a proactive approach to this programme of citybuilding. This he points out is exemplified by the Dongtan Eco-City among others. He also notesthe example of Aromar Revi and Sanjay Prakash who are undertaking the ecological redesign ofthe city of Panjim in Goa, India.

The hope would be that the developed world seeks to re-order its own cities in a move matchingthat of Chinas in scale. Building infrastructure that further weakens the sustainability of cities mustbe stopped. Cities such as Riyadh where desalination plants consume vast amounts of energy andLos Angeles where water is transported enormous distances, must seek to balance their impacts inimaginative ways (Girardet 2008 & Diamond 2005).

One method would be Ecological Footprinting used in tandem with per capita quotas as used in themethodology of Environmental Space as suggested by Wackernagel (et al 2000).


7/16

7 | P a g e

Global Sustainable Cities

Some efforts must be made to measure the impact of future urban development when set againstthe global context. Strides have been made in this direction with the implementation of carboncredits trying to internalise the externalities of environmental degradation however thesustainability of the economic drivers of global commerce (cities) needs to be measured first.

Before investment in urban development and the agricultural development contingent on urban

centres one needs to measure the sustainability of this investment. If cities are to be seen as theengines of human development they need to be made more energy and resource efficient.

They represent an opportunity to centralise the vast changes and reductions of per capita impactneeded. Theoretically the city gives advantageous access to services and infrastructure to itsinhabitants and in line with this it also grants access to those people when trying to enact thebehavioural changes demanded by our current dilemma.

Conclusion:

While the current outlook for an urbanised globe may be bleak the opportunities afforded to usthrough cities is huge. They are drivers of climate change and resource depletion but they need notlead to overshoot and collapse.

Notwithstanding the record peaks of growth urbanisation has seen recently, the rate of urbanisationin the second wave of urban transition is actually slowing down (UNPF 2007). See fig 4. Indeveloped countries the rate of urbanisation is reversing in some instances and a new format forliving is emerging where communication technology allows for a more flexible way of life. If thistrend were to be extrapolated onto developing countries one might see a similar pattern emerge(UNP 1996).

Average Annual Rate of Change of the Urban Population, by Region, 1950-2030

Figure 4

Source: United Nations (2006), World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, Table A.6. New York:Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. (Available on UNPF 2007page 8)

Key to any changes could be; in chronological order:

A disentanglement of unequal global resource trade allowing Developing World countries tofind their feet.

A corresponding reduction of the Ecological Footprint of the Developed World.

An appropriation of Developing World resource for Developing World populations.

The re-location of Developing World Urban Poor into Ring or Peri-urban Sustainable Cities


8/16

8 | P a g e

Limitations:

The social and financial costs of actions proposed by this essay have not been weighed up. Thefeasibility of these actions would demand huge intellectual attention. Of special considerationwould be the economic models upon which cities are currently founded and whether change canrealistically be leveraged within this framework.

Implications for the Orthodoxy:

The use of policies that try to engineer a reverse or slow down in urban population growth hasbeen met with mixed results. Conversely the current propensity to encourage urban populationgrowth through policy should be approached with caution (DoEHLG 2008).

Further Research & Opportunities:

Having built up an understanding of urbanisation and the demands it places on the globalenvironment, this author would find the development of a practical and globally implementedsustainability assessment model prescient.

In architectural practice this assessment could form part of the design process and be used toallow the local authority planner to determine the fundamental sustainability of the proposed

development. It is recognised that there are existing models, however on initial inspection theirboundaries seem variously limiting and further research of these pre-existing systems would be ofgreat benefit.

Word Count: 2274


9/16

9 | P a g e

Appendix 1:

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United NationsSecretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects:The 2009 Revision is used as basis for comparisons.

Definition of Regions

Developed WorldMore developed regions: They comprise all regions of Europe plus Northern America,Australia/New Zealand and Japan (see definition of regions).

Developing WorldLess developed regions: They comprise all regions of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin Americaand the Caribbean plus Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia (see definition of regions).

Least developed countries: The group of least developed countries, as defined by the UnitedNations General Assembly in its resolutions (59/209, 59/210 and 60/33) in 2007, comprises 49countries, of which 33 are in Africa, 10 in Asia, 1 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 5 inOceania.The group includes 49 countries - Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso,

Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati, LaoPeople's Democratic Republic, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania,Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, Samoa, So Tom and Prncipe, Senegal, SierraLeone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tuvalu, Uganda, United Republic ofTanzania, Vanuatu, Yemen and Zambia. These countries are also included in the less developedregions.

Appendix 2:

Poverty in Developing CountriesUnited Nations Population Fund (1996), The State of World Population 1996: Changing Places:Population, Development & Urban Future, available fromhttp:www.unfpa.org/swp/1996/pdf/natinc96.pdf [accessed 7th of April 2010]

According to national studies up to half the population of several cities in some of the worldspoorest countries are living below official poverty lines. Even this may be an underestimate... donot usually take into account the higher cost of living in the cities.

Cities draw immigrants with the promise of higher living standards, but the wealth produced incities does not necessarily translate into prosperity for all.

...the poor in both urban and rural areas are seriously underserved. The richest 20 percent ofpopulations have access to the best available sources (of power)...

...improvement in water and sanitation is frequently overestimated in official statistics, however,particularly for the urban poor.

In Rio de Janeiro...the number of health professionals per capita in the periphery was one thirdthat of the centre.

United Nations Population Fund (2007), The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing thePotential for Urban Growth, available from http://www.unfpa.org/pds/ [accessed 7th of April 2010]

In the case of Brazil, it has been estimated that 69 per cent of migrants to urban areas and of ruralpeople reclassified as urban (between 1999 and 2004) can be categorized as poor.


10/16

10 | P a g e

Appendix 3:

Policy Drivers


Indian policymakers hope to further retard urban growth by implementing the National Rural

Employment Scheme enacted in 2005. Through it, the Government assumes the responsibility forproviding a legal guarantee for 100 days of employment in every financial year for every ruralhousehold with an adult member willing to do unskilled manual work.

In China, Policymakers have understandably been much concerned with the speed andmagnitude of urban growth...slower growth would theoretically give them more flexibility to dealwith urban problems. Generally, they attempt to slow growth by restricting incoming migration

In addition, successful rural development may actually generate more rural-urban migration.Conversely, urban growth is a powerful stimulus to food production, especially by small farmers.Access to flourishing urban markets contributes both to the reduction of rural poverty and to urbanfood security.- The nature of the rural development described here is not expanded upon. Often the agricultural

development initiated serves for export to Developed Countries which necessitates mechanisedfarming over larger farm-holdings.

Closer to home, in Ireland, the policy is to prevent rural development where feasible. This has beenmet with a warning from the E.U. where the rights of movement of the individual were underlined(DoEHLG 2008).

Appendix 4:

Measuring Impact

The IPAT model posited by Ehrlich and Holdren (1971 & 72) is described thus;Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology or Impact=Population x Consumption

The impact of urbanising a developing world rural inhabitant is a product of their increased accessto services per person, goods per person...etc. (affluence), their access to electrical power...etc.(electricity) and their increasing population. The trend for urban transition within the currentconsumption framework leads to an increase in per capita impact (Pachauri & Jiang 2008 and Cai& Jiang 2008).

The calculation made at World Impact are derived from the list of nations considered DevelopedCountries from the United Nations Population Fund, The State of World Population 2007:Unleashing the Potential for Urban Growth report. These nations are cross referenced with the listproduced in Table 7.2, page 122-123 of Sharing Natures Interest, Ecological Footprints,(Wackernagel et al 2000), illustrating the ecological footprint of nations. An average is taken from

24 nations shared across both lists. This measurement of hectares per capita is imposed onto thepopulation statistics available on the UNPF 2007 report.

With reference to Limits to Growth, The 30 Year Up-date, the ramifications for this development aresuggested in Scenario 1, figure 4-11 as prepared by Meadows et al (2005). There is an overshootand collapse event in the middle of this century. The suggestions for change in the conclusionexclude population controls however in Scenario 8, Figure 7-2 where the world seeks stablepopulation and stable industrial output per person from 2002, the signs are of a recoverable dip(overshoot and oscillation) in population at the end of this century. The true sustainability of theseruns can only be revealed if extended into the following centuries (Meadows et al 2005).


11/16

11 | P a g e

Appendix 5:

Impacts


Rapid urban growth, combined with the potent impacts of climate variability and climate change,

will probably have severe consequences for environmental health in the tropics (causing, forexample, heat stress and the build-up of tropospheric ozone), which can affect the urban economy(for example, yield of labour and economic activities) and social organization. In a vicious circle,climate change will increase energy demand for air conditioning in urban areas and contribute tothe urban heat island effect through heat pollution. Heat pollution, smog and ground-level ozoneare not just urban phenomena; they also affect surrounding rural areas, reducing agriculturalyields,increasing health.

World Urbanisation 2009Source: United Nations Population Fund (2007), The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing thePotential for Urban Growth, available from http://www.unfpa.org/pds/ [accessed 7

thof April 2010]


12/16

12 | P a g e

Source: Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.https://reader009.{domain}/reader009/html5/0528/5b0b946d257c6/5b0b9477d0844.jpg[accessed on 11th of April 2010]

Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Servicehttp://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html [accessed on 11th of April 2010]


13/16

13 | P a g e

Source: UNEP Grid Arendalhttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-waterstress-and-scarcity


14/16

14 | P a g e

References:

Jose I. Barredo and Luca Demicheli (2003) Urban Sustainability in Developing CountriesMegacities: Modelling and predicting future urban growth in Lagos ,Cities, Vol. 20, No. 5, p. 297310, 2003

Barthon H. & Tsourou C. (2000), Healthy Urban Planning, Spon Press, London

Chengri Ding (1999) Managing Urban Growth with Urban Growth Boundaries: A TheoreticalAnalysis, Journal of Urban Economics 46, 53-68. Article ID juec.1998.2111, available online athttp:www.idealibrary.com

Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government (2008) Rural Housing Policiesand Local Need Criteria in Development Plans: Conformity with Articles 43 and 56 (Freedom ofEstablishment and Free Movement of Capital) of the European Community Treaty, Circular SP5/08

Jared Diamond (2005), Collapse; How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, published by thePenguin Books ltd. UK.

Herbert Girardet (2008), Cities People Planet; Urban Development and Climate Change, Second

Edition, Published by John Wiley & Sons ltd. UK.

Chani Leahong (2010), Healthy Cities: lecture for the B3 module for the Msc AEES course at TheCentre of Alternative Technology, Wales for The Graduate School of the Environment, UEL.

Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows (2005), Limits to Growth; The 30 YearUpdate, Published by Earthscan, London.

Sofie Pelsmakers (2005), Sustainability; lecture for Module A1, September 2005 module for theMsc AEES course at The Centre of Alternative Technology, Wales for The Graduate School of theEnvironment, UEL.

Michael Lipton (1980), Migration from Rural Areas of Poor Countries: The impact on ruralproductivity and income distribution, World Development Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages 1-24

Narayan Sastry (1997) What Explains Rural-Urban Differentials in Child Mortality in Brazil? Soc.Sci. Med. Vol. 44, No. 7. pp. 989-1002, 1997

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United NationsSecretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects:The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/index.asp, [accessed: Friday, April 09, 2010]

Chris Scott (2007), Urbanisation and health within the UK; Paper for Module B3, February 2010,for the Msc AEES course at The Centre of Alternative Technology, Wales for The Graduate Schoolof the Environment, UEL. Available from www.cat.org.uk. [accessed 7th of April 2010]

Sjoberg, 0.(1992) Under-urbanisation and the zero urban growth hypothesis: diverted migration inAlbania. Geogr. Ann. 74 B (1): 3-19.

United Nations Population Fund (1996), The State of World Population 1996: Changing Places:Population, Development & Urban Future, available fromhttp:www.unfpa.org/swp/1996/pdf/natinc96.pdf [accessed 7th of April 2010]

United Nations Population Fund (2001), Population, Environment and Poverty linkages OperationalChallenges; Population and Development Strategies, Series Number 1, 2001, available fromhttp://www.unfpa.org/pds/ [accessed 8th of April 2010]


15/16

15 | P a g e


United Nations Population Division / DESA (2009), Press Release, World Population to exceed 9billion by 2050: Developing Countries to add 2.3 billion Inhabitants with 1.1 billion aged over 60and 1.2 billion of Working Age: embargoed until 12:00 pm, 11 march, 2009, available fromhttp://esa.un.org/unpd [accessed 7th of April 2010]

Mathis Wackernagel, Nicky Chambers & Craig Simmons (2000), Sharing Natures Interest;Ecological Footprints as an Indicator of Sustainability, published by Earthscan, UK.

Kevin Watkins (1995), Oxfam Poverty Report, Oxfam.

The World Bank (2010), Urban Development and Chinahttp://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/ html

World Resources Institute (1999), World Resources 1998-1999, A Guide to the GlobalEnvironment, Oxford: published by the Oxford University Press.

Other Sources:

M. Barrett et al. (2008) How to support growth with less energy, Energy Policy 36 (2008) 45924599

Martin Brockerhoff (1995), Child Survival in Big Cities: The Disadvantages of Migrants, Soc. Sci.Med. Vol. 40, No. 10, pp. 1371-1383, Printed in Great Britain.

Jing Cai & Zhigang Jiang (2008), Changing of energy consumption patterns from rural householdsto urban households in China: An example from Shaanxi Province, China, Renewable andSustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 12, Issue 6, August 2008, Pages 1667-1680

Cohen, B (2004) Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and aCaution Regarding Existing Forecasts, p. 37. World Development32(1): 23-51.

Department of Agriculture, Food & Rural Development (1999) Ensuring the Future - A Strategy forRural Development in Ireland: A White Paper on Rural Development

Department of Environment & Local Government (1997), Sustainable Development: a Strategy forIreland

Dublin City Council (2008) Water Supply Project Dublin Region (Draft Plan), published by VeoliaWater and RPS Consulting Engineers, available from http://www.watersupplyproject-

dublinregion.ie [accessed 8

th

of April 2010]

Ehrlich P. & Holdren J. (1971), Impacts of Population Growth, Science 171, pp1212-17

Ehrlich P. & Holdren J. (1972), One dimensional Ecology, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 28 (5), pp16and 18-21.

Lynsey Hanley (2007), Estates; An Intimate History, published by Granta Books, UK.

International Union for the Scientific Study of Population; http://www.iussp.org/


16/16

16 | P a g e

LaGro Jr. J.A. (1994) Population growth beyond the urban fringe: implications for rural land usepolicy, Landscape and Urban Planning, 28 (2-3), pp. 143-158

Massey, D. S. (1996) The Age of Extremes: Concentrated Affluence and Poverty in the Twenty-first Century, Demography 33(4): 395-412

National Spatial Strategy for Ireland 2002 2020; People, Places and Potential, published by TheStationery Office, Dublin

Shonali Pachauri & Leiwen Jiang (2008), The household energy transition in India and China,Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4022 4035

The Population Connection, formerly Zero Population Growth, websitehttp://www.populationconnection.org

UN-Habitat (2006) State of the Worlds Cities 2006/7: The Millennium Development Goals andUrban Sustainability. Publisher: Earthscan, UK.

UN Millennium Project (2005) Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve theMillennium Development Goals, Report to the UN Secretary-General. Publisher: Earthscan, UK.

United Nations Millennium Project (2005), Task Force on Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers,published by Earthscan, UK.

Wackernagel & Rees (1996) Urban Ecological Footprints: Why Cities cannot be Sustainable andwhy they are a Key to Sustainability, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSESS, REV 1996;16: 223-248

Mildred Warner, Amir Hefetz (2003), Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 2003,volume 21, pages 703-718

Wei Jin, Linyu Xu, Zhifeng Yang (2009), Modeling a policy making framework for urbansustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint, Ecological Economics68 (2009) 29382949

Can the growing trend towards an Urbanised Globe be Sustainable? The ticking time-bomb of Developing...

Documents

Transcript of Can the growing trend towards an Urbanised Globe be Sustainable? The ticking time-bomb of Developing...