CAN SOLAR ACTIVITY INFLUENCE THE OCCURRENCE ...power grids.“Carrington event” in 1859 . CME in...
Transcript of CAN SOLAR ACTIVITY INFLUENCE THE OCCURRENCE ...power grids.“Carrington event” in 1859 . CME in...
Mikhail Gorbanev
January 2015
CAN SOLAR ACTIVITY INFLUENCE THE OCCURRENCE
OF RECESSIONS?
Outline
2
• What are the sunspots, solar cycles, and solar
maximums?
• Literature: Jevons and Chizhevsky
• Methodology: Series comparison; stacked cycles
• Findings: Recessions do occur more often around and
after solar maximums!
• Projections for the solar maximum of 2014
• Issues for discussion
What Are the Sunspots, Solar Cycles,
and Solar Maximums?
Solar activity fluctuates with approximate 11-year period known as the
“solar cycle”. The cycle is not exactly regular, and significant variations
have been observed over centuries.
The cycles can be measured by counting the “sunspots” on the sun
surface. Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the
sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions.
The period of elevated solar activity with the highest number of sunspots
during the cycle is called “solar maximum”.
Around solar maximums, various types of solar activity reach their
maximums levels: radio activity, radiance, proton emission, solar wind,
flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), etc. 3
Impact on Earth
Physical impact: Disruptions of radio and telecommunications; fluctuations
in the geomagnetic field (“magnetic storms”); electromagnetic impulses in
power grids.“Carrington event” in 1859 . CME in mid-2012.
Human health hazard: Geomagnetic storms caused by solar activity can
affect people with cardiovascular health conditions and exacerbate
psychological and mental illnesses.
Jevons (1875-79): “Commercial crises” in Europe in the XIX century
occurred at intervals of 10-11 years, broadly matching the average solar
cycle length. “Beautiful coincidence“, link to bad harvests.
Chizhevsky (1924, 1938, 1976): A significant percent of revolutions and
“the most important historical events” occur in the three-year periods
around and after sunspot maximums. 4
Solar flare, radio flux and irradiance
fluctuate along with the sunspot cycle
5 Source: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
Solar activity causes cyclical fluctuations
in the geomagnetic field
6 Source: NOAA, www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/geomag/apstar.html
For over 100 years, each solar maximum
overlapped with a recession in US economy
7
1415161718192021222324
-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105
Sola
r cy
cles
Months into solar cycle
Figure 1. US Recession Starts in 1901-2014 (Solar cycles 14-24 centered on solar maximums)
Recession starts Single quarters of GDP contraction
Solar maximum
2-year period where
recessionsbegan each solar cycle
Sources: NBER; FRED; NASA; and author's calculations.
Since 1965, 3/5 of G7 recessions started in
3 years around and after solar maximums
8
20
21
22
23
24
-60 -30 0 30 60 90
Sola
r cy
cles
Months into the solar cycle
Figure 2. G7 Recession Starts in 1965-2014 (Solar cycles 20-24 centered on solar maximums. Larger markers
for months when recession began in two countries)
Solar
maximum3-year period where recessions most often began
Source: NBER; ECRI; NASA; and author's calculations.
Since 1933, US economy spent 1/3 of time in
recession in about 3 years after solar maximums
9
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-50 -25 0 25 50 75
Ave
rage
of
US
rece
ssio
n m
on
ths
Months into solar cycle
Figure 5. Average of US Recession Months in 1933-2008 (Solar cycles 17-23, centered along solar maximums)
US was in
recession more often when not 1.5 years after the solar maximum
Solar maximum
Source: NBER; FRED; NASA; and author's calculations.
Since 1965, on average, 3 of G7 economies were
in recession 1-3 years after solar maximums
10
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
-50 -25 0 25 50 75
Ave
rage
of
rece
ssio
n m
on
ths
Months into solar cycle
Figure 6. Average of G7 Recession Months in 1965-2014(Solar cycles 20-24 centered along solar maximums)
On average, three of the G7 countries
were in recession 1-3 years after the
solar maximum
Solar
maximum
Cycle 24
Average
for cycles 20-23
Source: NBER; FRED; ECRI; NASA; and author's estimates.
The US business conditions deteriorate around
sunspot maximums ADS: Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index CLI: Composite Leading Indicator (compiled by OECD)
11
-5
-3
-1
1
3
0
100
200
300
400
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
All Five Sunspot Maximums Overlapped with Dips in the US Business Conditions in 1955 - 2012
(Smoothed with 25 months MA)
Sunspots, monthly (LHS) ADS CLI
Sources: OECD; Philadelphia FRB; NASA.
Entire OECD business conditions deteriorate too CLI: Composite Leading Indicator (compiled by OECD)
12
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
0
100
200
300
400
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Figure 10. Solar Cycle and OECD CLI, 1962 - 2013(Smoothed with 25 months moving average)
Sunspots, monthly (LHS) CLI
Sources: OECD; NASA; author's calculations.
All four maximums of solar activity overlapped closely with troughs in the OECD business conditions
13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Figure 13. Solar Cycle and US Unemployment, 1948-2014
All six solar maximums overlapped with minimums of the US unemployment rate followed by its sharp increase
Sunspots, monthly (LHS) US unemployment rate, percent (RHS)
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; FRED; NASA.
14
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 15. Solar Cycle and G7 Unemployment, 1956-2014
All five solar maximums overlapped with minimums of unemployment rate in G7 countries followed by its sharp increase
Sunspots, annually (LHS)
Unemployment rate in G7 countries, percent (RHS)
Sources: OECD; IMF WEO; NASA.
15
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-50 -25 0 25 50 75
Un
emp
loym
ent r
ate,
per
cen
t
Months into solar cycle
Figure 12. US Unemployment in 1954-2014
(Solar cycles 19-24 centered along solar maximum)
Maximum
unemploymentreached 3 years after the solar maximum
Solar maximum
Average for
cycles 19-23
Cycle 24
Source: US FED ; NASA; and author's calculations.
16
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Years into solar cycle
Figure 14. Unemployment in G7 Economies, 1964-2019
(Solar cycles 20-24 centered along solar maximum)
1964-2007 2008-19
2008
2014 (est.)
2019
(proj.)
2010
Average for
cycles 20-23
Solar
maximum
Source: IMF WEO; OECD; NASA; and author's calculations.
Cycle 24
17
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Perc
ent
Years into solar cycle
Figure 16. US GDP Growth in 1954-2014 (Solar cycles 19-24 centered along solar maximum)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; IMF WEO ; NASA; and author's calculations.
Cycle 24
2009
2010
2014
(est.)
2019 (proj.)
Average for cycles
19-23
Trough for 3 years after the solar maximum
Solar maximum
18
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Perc
ent
Years into solar cycle
Figure 17. World GDP Growth in 1964-2014 (Solar cycles 20-24 centered along solar maximum)
2009
2010
2014
(est.)
2019
(proj.)
Cycle 24
Average
for cycles20-23
Source: IMF WEO ; NASA; and author's calculations.
Trough for 3 years after
the solar maximum
Solar
maximum
Issues for Discussion
19
Does it all make sense?
How to design statistical tests?
Use in economic models?
Any value for projections and policy
discussions?
According to NASA, the unfolding 24th solar
cycle reached its maximum in April 2014
20 Source: NASA, solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml