Can one lens see bi and ux developconf
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CAN ONE LENS SEE BI AND UX?
Heather StarkKinran
@HAStark
[email protected]://slideshare.net/heather.stark
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http://kaleidoscope.kontagent.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Kontagent-kScope-Top-Growth-in-Revenue-2011-20121.png
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Design = Change
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Design = Change
Analytics powers change
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Analytics is a process
not a product
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not an afterthought
Analytics is a process
not a product
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Roger Dickey, Creator of Zynga’s Mafia Wars
“Putting stats in pre-launch is absolutely the best thing you can do for your product”
http://blog.betable.com/roger-dickeys-hacks-for-game-monetization/
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not an afterthought
Analytics is a process
not a product
Analytics is a discovery processAnalytics is a design process
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Think
Look
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Think
Look
Change
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Think
Look
Change
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Think
Look
ChangePlanned
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There is only one outcome
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There is only one outcome
LTCV
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No KPI is good but thinking makes it so
RetentionEngage-ment
Virality
Monetis-ation
LTCVCAC
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Virality and valueDiffusion dynamics of games on online social networks, Wei, Yang, Adamic, de Araújo and Rehkihttp://www-personal.umich.edu/~ladamic/papers/FBgames/FBgameDiffusion.pdf
Recruited by friend
Other
Play after day 1?
No Yes
10% of inviters responsible for 50%of successful invitations
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Engagement, retention, and value
Which pattern is best?
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Almost none
Monetisation and valueAlmost all
A few
Nothing A bit A lot
How manypeople
A whole lot
Even fewer
Pay how much?
Individualdifferences• interpretable or• stochastic
Experiencedifferences
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Time and value
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/NickLim/20120626/173051/Freemium_games_are_not_normal.php
Data: Sonamine, aggregatated over >12 casual games
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clickclickclick click click
clickclick
click
clickclick
clickclick
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Context is complexSequential
goal
loss
risk
loss
choice
reward
actionor
event
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Context is complex
Concurrent
Sequentialgoal
loss
risk
loss
choice
reward
Factual
unease momentum suspenseresource level friend presentaction
or
event
Imputed
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Who what how where when
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Context is complex
Concurrent
Sequential
Imputed
goal
loss
risk
loss
choice
reward
Factual
unease momentum suspenseresource level friend presentaction
or
event
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Analytics
Experiencetypes
KPI
LTCV
Events
ActionsPlayertypes
reveals these relationshipsby pulling focus
Context
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TOOLS AND PROCESSESTrends and lenses
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Tools
Logging Reporting Exploratory Model-testing
App tracking
BI frontend
Data science
Activities
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Which is bigger?
12 16
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It depends
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Tools trends
Logging Reporting Exploratory Model-testing
App tracking
BI frontend
Data science
graph dbpredictives
Activities
cloudservices
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Predictives: segmentation
e.g. Player Lifecycle Management ™ConvertSoon™ChurnSoon™PurchaseMoreSoon™InfluenceSoon™source: Sonamine
e.g. graph-based
there are many techniques for identifying groups
new ones are emerging
expected future behaviour is a strong focus
esp. behaviours which link to KPIs
what you do with the groups is a different question...
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Segmentation can suggest action
Revenue Potential
Vira
lity
Pote
ntial
31%0.89%22%
$1.75
%Volume%Paying7Day Ret
CAC25%
1.30%26%
$2.21
5%0.199%
$2.38
14%0.9721%
$1.94
Early Enthusiasts
Confident Completers
Social Involver
Sporadic SemiEngaged
Losing Momentum
Need Guidance
Borderline Incompetent
6%2.34%57%
$4.40
12%0.8659%
$3.57
7%0.55%36%
$0.75
Source: Games Analytics
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It can also be opaque
“We have tested over 60 individual and game-specific metrics. None of them are critical enough to cause churn. None of them! We haven't found a silver bullet -- that magic barrier preventing players from enjoying the game.”
Dmitry Nozhnin, Head of analytics and monetisation, Innova:
http://gamasutra.com/view/feature/170472/predicting_churn_datamining_your_.php
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?
?
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Do tools matter?
http://www.legoturingmachine.org/
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PROCESSESTrends in
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Which is better?
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Sometimes people do 1-2 A/B tests per week and then complain that it doesn’t work for them – they probably need to 5-10X their A/B test output in order to get a win or two per week. Andrew Chen, 2 July 2012
http://andrewchen.co/2012/07/02/what-does-a-growth-team-work-on-day-to-day
Most fail.
We do hundreds and
hundred of experiments
every quarter.
Ken Rudin, General Manager, Analytics, Zyngahttp://tdwi.org/videos/2010/08/actionable-analytics-at-zynga-leveraging-big-data-to-make-online-games-more-fun-and-social.aspx
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Quant variation rules
‘you need to invite 3 friends to get to the next level on Bubble Witch
Saga….’
Alex Dale, CMO King.comFacebook Mobile HackLondon March 2012
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Quant variation rules
‘you need to invite 3 friends to get to the next level on Bubble Witch
Saga….’
Alex Dale, CMO King.comFacebook Mobile HackLondon March 2012
not 2, not 4
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Answers don’t always make senseWe don’t understand what’s going on. All we know is we’re going to keep running these experiments to try and understand better what it is that our customers are telling us. And there are clearly things that we don’t understand because a simple analysis of these statistics implies very contradictory yet reproducible results. So clearly there are things that we don’t understand, and we’re trying to develop theories for them. It’s just an exciting time but also a very troubling time.
Gabe Newell, Founder, ValveOct 23 2011http://www.geekwire.com/2011/experiments-video-game-economics-valves-gabe-newell/
June
23
2012
Val
ue h
ires
Gre
ek
econ
omist
in re
side
nce
to lo
ok a
t sh
ared
cur
renc
y is
sues
.
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What’s the question?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt-zIMaMD24
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Inclusive vs extractiveWhirly Fizzle Shape:Height: 74Breast Size: 69Breast Buoyancy: 8Breast Cleavage: 32Hip Width: 73Hip Length: 44Butt size: 50Belly Bounce: 5, 87, 30, 67Breast Bounce: 19, 33, 45, 64Breast Cleavage: 5, 28, 41, 53Breast Sway: 8, 15, 17, 36Butt Bounce: 7, 41, 12, 72Butt Sway: 8, 34, 15, 50Advanced: 12, 39, 9, 14, 6, 10, 10, 22, 61
http://wiki.phoenixviewer.com/doku.php?id=phoenix_avatar_physics
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Discovery-driven design
Design-driven analytics
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