CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Chapters 9 and 10 APUSGovPol.

CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Chapters 9 and 10 APUSGovPol

How Running for Office Can Be more Demanding than Governing

Long and Arduous Campaigns Evolved from the belief of reformers that the cure for the problems of democracy is more democracy Do politicians do too little governing because they are always running scared in todays perpetual campaign?

Issues: 1.Does todays nomination and campaign process provide too much opportunity for interaction between the public and candidates for office? 2.Does the entire process take too much time and/or cost too much money?

Two Types of Campaigns: 1.Campaigns for party nominations: nomination campaigns 2.Campaigns between the two nominees: election campaigns

The Nomination Game A nomination is a partys official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party. Success generally requires: Momentum Money Media Attention

The Nomination Game Campaign strategy is the master game plan the candidates lay out to guide their electoral campaign (in other words, how they manipulate the 3Ms [momentum, money, media] to achieve nomination)

The Nomination Game Running for POTUS (President of the United States) is a multi-year, around-the-clock endurance test In most advanced industrialized countries, campaigns last no more than 2 months, according to custom or law

Competing for Delegates Goal of nomination game is to win support of majority of delegates at national party convention

Competing for Delegates Through 1968, delegates were the political elite chosen by party bosses Riots at 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago led to establishment of more open procedures for delegate selection

1968 Democratic National Convention

Competing for Delegates McGovern-Fraser Commission formed at the 1968 Democratic convention in response to demands for reform by minority groups and others who sought better representation at national party conventions Commissions work resulted in delegate selection procedures becoming open: either state-run primary or open meetings at local level Transformed U.S. politics

Competing for Delegates Superdelegates national party leaders who automatically get a delegate slot at the national party convention are the only remaining vestige of the elite-dominated system In 2012, superdelegates constituted 14% of Democratic and 8% of Republican convention participants

The Invisible Primary The invisible primary is the period before any votes are cast when candidates compete to win early support from the elite of the party and to create a positive first impression of their leadership skills.

The Invisible Primary During the invisible primary, candidates woo Elected officials (most importantly, members of Congress and governors) Top fundraisers Skilled political aides

The Invisible Primary Party elite may set the agenda during the nominating process by coalescing around and giving endorsement to candidate most acceptable to it Candidates work hard during this period to create positive personal image among media, political elite, and the attentive portion of the public

The Invisible Primary Candidates within same party generally agree more often than not on issues, so personal qualifications, character, and intelligence used to differentiate candidates

The Caucuses and Primaries A caucus is a system for selecting convention delegates used in about a dozen states in which voters must attend an open meeting to express their presidential preference.

The Caucuses and Primaries Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the first test of candidates vote-garnering abilities. Attending a caucus requires a greater time commitment than attending a primary; results in lower participation levels

The Caucuses and Primaries Caucuses test candidates strategic acuity, organizational strength, and intensity of support, qualities not irrelevant to performance in the general election and in the White House. Thomas E. Mann, Is This Any Way to Pick a President?, in Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process, ed. Steven S. Smith and Melanie J. Springer (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2009), 165.

The Caucuses and Primaries Iowa caucuses usually become a full-blown media extravaganza, and well-known candidates have seen their campaigns suffer major setbacks after poor showings in Iowa.

The Caucuses and Primaries Candidates spend far more time in Iowa during the nomination season than in larger states, such as California, Texas, and Florida.

The Caucuses and Primaries Most delegates are selected in presidential primaries: elections in which a states voters go to the polls to express their preference for a partys nominee for president.

The Caucuses and Primaries New Hampshire holds the nations first primary. Half of the countrys portable satellite dishes found in Manchester, NH during primary week Network news broadcast from Manchester, NH during that week Over 1/5 of TV coverage of nomination races devoted to NH primary in recent years

The Caucuses and Primaries

With so much attention paid to NH and IA, more states have moved their primaries up in the calendar to capitalize on media attention: frontloading

The Caucuses and Primaries Potential problems with frontloading: May be a rush to judgment before the public can adequately learn about the candidates Late primary states may prove to be irrelevant (candidates may have already been decided)

The Caucuses and Primaries Allocation of delegates: Democrats: all states require proportional representation for delegate representation Republicans: three methods Winner-take-all (e.g., Florida) Delegates allocated based upon congressional districts (e.g., California) Proportional representation

The Caucuses and Primaries

Momentum in the caucus and primary season: Beat people candidates were not expected to beat Collect margins about predictions Never lose to people candidates were expected to trounce

Evaluation the Primary and Caucus System Disproportionate attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries

Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative About 5% turnout for caucuses (20% in Iowa) Voters tend to be older, more affluent The system gives too much power to the media

Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System

The Convention Send-Off No drama anymore; carefully scripted; weeklong infomercial

The Convention Send-Off Party platform: A political partys statement of its goals and policies for the next four years. The platform is drafted prior to the party convention by a committee whose members are chosen in rough proportion to each candidates strength. It is the best formal statement of a partys belief.

The High-Tech Media Campaign Television is the most prevalent means used by candidates to reach voters Obama: I like every politician at the federal level am almost entirely dependent on the media to reach my constituents. It is the filter through which my votes are interpreted, my statements analyzed, my beliefs examined. For the broad public at least, I am who the media says I am.

The High-Tech Media Campaign

Direct mail: a method of raising money for a political cause or candidate, in which information and requests for money are sent to people whose names appear on lists of those who have supported similar views or candidates in the past

The High-Tech Media Campaign Media coverage is determined by two factors: How candidates use their advertising budget The free attention the candidates get as news makers At least the total budget for a presidential or Senate campaign set aside for TV ads

The High-Tech Media Campaign Many observers worry that weve entered a new era of politics in which the slick slogan and the image salesperson dominate. Studies have found that viewers learned a substantial amount about candidates issue stands from watching their ads.

The High-Tech Media Campaign Critics of political ads: emphasize style over substance, image over information; heighten conflict and employ a hard-sell approach Constant interplay between hard news and human interest angle

The High-Tech Media Campaign News coverage is disproportionately devoted to campaign strategies, speculation about what will happen next, poll results, and other aspects of the campaign game.

The High-Tech Media Campaign If you have two guys on stage and one guy says, I have a solution to the Middle East problem, and the other guy falls in the orchestra pit, who do you think is going to be on the evening news? Roger Ailes, Fox News president

The High-Tech Media Campaign The Living Room Candidate

Organizing the Campaign Get a campaign manager Get a fund-raiser Get a campaign counsel Hire media and campaign consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics Get a research staff and policy advisers Hire a pollster Get a good press secretary Establish a website

Money and Campaigning Two ways to contribute money to campaigns: 1. Campaign contributions are donations made directly to a candidate or a party and that must be reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Individuals may currently donate up to $2,600 per election to a candidate. (This amount will be indexed for inflation in February or March, 2015.)

Money and Campaigning Two ways to contribute money to campaigns:2. 2. Individuals and corporations may make donations to groups that make independent expenditures, expenses on behalf of a political message that are made by groups that are uncoordinated with any candidates campaign.

Regulations on Campaign Contributions In early 1970s, the costs of campaigning skyrocketed, and the Watergate scandal exposed large, illegal campaign contributions. Reformers thereafter called for changes to the financing of campaigns.

Regulations on Campaign Contributions 1974: Congress passed the Federal Election Campaign Act Created Federal Election Commission (FEC) Required all candidates for federal office to disclose Who has contributed to the candidates campaign How the funds were spent

Regulations on Campaign Contributions Federal Election Campaign Act limited donations to political action committees (PACs), groups that raise money from individuals and then distribute it in the form of contributions to candidates that the group supports. PACs must register with the FEC and report their donations and contributions to it. Individual contributions to PACs are limited to $5,000 per year, and a PAC may contribute up to $5,000 to a candidate for each election.

Regulations on Campaign Contributions FEC reserves 3 spots for Democratic appointees and 3 spots for Republican appointees. Four votes are necessary for action. (gridlock?)

Regulations on Campaign Contributions Candidates and parties detailed contribution and expenditure reports available at fec.gov. (See also opensecrets.org, fundrace.org)fec.govopensecrets.orgfundrace.org

Regulations on Campaign Contributions $3 voluntary check-off box on federal income tax returns only utilized by 7% of taxpayers Candidates must agree to accept restrictions on overall spending in order to claim those funds. (In 2012, both major party candidates have opted out of accepting the federal funds.)

Regulations on Campaign Contributions Buckley v. Valeo (1974): SCOTUS said candidates may contribute as much money as they wish to their own campaigns Ross Perot spent over $60 million in 1992 Mitt Romney spent $44 million in 2008

Regulations on Campaign Contributions 1979: Federal Election Campaign Act amended to make it easier for political parties to raise soft money, political contributions earmarked for party-building expenses at the grassroots level or for generic party advertising (registration drives, distributing campaign material, generic advertising) Nearly a half billion dollars in soft money raised in 2000 (e.g., $7 million donation from creator of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles to the Democratic National Party)

Regulations on Campaign Contributions McCain-Feingold Act (2002) passed to ban soft money contributions. Limits on contributions to political parties of $25,000 (indexed to rise with inflation) SCOTUS upheld ban, 5-4, in McConnell v. Federal Election Commission (2003)

Regulations on Campaign Contributions 2002 McCain-Feingold Act: banned soft money contributions. Loopholes around these limitations were quickly discovered and utilized

Regulations on Campaign Contributions Hydraulic theory of money and politics: As with water, money inevitably finds its way around any obstacle. Independent political expenditures

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups: Independent political groups that are not subject to contribution restrictions because they do not directly seek the election of particular candidates. Section 527 of the Internal Revenue [tax] Code requires that such expenditures be reported to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups: In 2004 ruling, FEC said as long as a 527 group does not make explicit endorsement of candidates by using phrases such as Vote for and Vote against, individuals may make unlimited contributions to such 527 group. Donations remained unlimited but had to be disclosed to FEC.

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups: Prior to 2010, McCain-Feingold Act prohibited corporations and unions form using general treasury funds to pay for electioneering communications in the last 60 days of federal campaigns.

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010): SCOTUS ruled, 5-4, that corporations and unions may spend unlimited amounts to promote their political views, as long as they do so without coordinating their message with any candidates campaign.

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens United: 501(c) groups: Can receive unlimited political donations that could remain anonymous Donations dont have to be reported unless a donor gives money specifically for a political ad Exempted from reporting their contributions to the FEC Cannot spent more than half their funds on political activities, pursuant to Internal Revenue Code. Groups regulated by IRS, not by FEC; therefore, no public disclosure requirement

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens United: SpeechNow.org v. FEC (DC Ct. App. 2010): unlimited donations to PACs that make only independent expenditures (i.e., dont coordinate message with candidates) are constitutional Independent, expenditure-only PACs proliferate known as SuperPACs

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures Post-Citizens United: SuperPACs are independent, expenditure-only PACs that may accept donations of any size and can endorse candidates (but cant coordinate message with candidates). Their contributions and expenditures must be periodically reported to the FEC.

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures

Stephen Colberts SuperPAC

Are Campaigns Too Expensive? 2008: Presidential and Congressional contest cost over $5 billion About 0.05% of GDP Opportunity costs: more time campaigning means less time governing, working Congress not likely to support public financing of federal campaigns: incumbency advantage

Does Money Buy Victory? Doctrine of sufficiency: enough money must be spent to get a message across to compete effectively, but outspending ones opponent is not always necessary

Does Money Buy Victory?

The Impact of Campaigns Campaigns have three effects on voters: Reinforcing voters preferences for candidates Activating voters, getting them to contribute money or to ring doorbells, as opposed to merely voting Converting voters, changing voters minds

The Impact of Campaigns Campaigns mostly reinforce and activate; only rarely do they convert.

The Impact of Campaigns Factors tending to weaken campaigns impact upon voters: Selective perception: the phenomenon that peoples beliefs often guide what they pay the most attention to and how they interpret events Long term factors, such as party identification Incumbency advantage: name-recognition, track record

The Impact of Campaigns Sometimes wedge issues issues on which the other partys coalition is divided may cause voters to stray from their preferred candidate.

Whether to Vote: A Citizens First Choice Suffrage: the legal right to vote in the United States; gradually extended to virtually all citizens 18 and over. Excludes noncitizens in all states Almost all states exclude prisoners; about half exclude paroled criminals; 10 states exclude felons

Whether to Vote: A Citizens First Choice As right to vote has been expanded over time, electoral participation has declined. 80% in 1896 (Bryan [D] vs. McKinley [R]) 59% in 2012 (Romney [R] vs. Obama [D]) 36% in 2014 midterm Congressional elections

Deciding Whether to Vote Costs of voting: Time: Becoming informed Making up your mind Getting to the polls

Deciding Whether to Vote Most frequent reason asserted for nonvoting by registered voters is inability to take time off of work or school (What about Election Day on Saturday or as a national holiday?)

Deciding Whether to Vote Rational people vote if they believe that the policies of one party will bring more benefits than the policies of the other party. --Economist Anthony Downs

Deciding Whether to Vote Many people vote due to a high sense of political efficacy, the belief that ones political participation really matters that ones vote can actually make a difference. Measured by asking people to agree/disagree with statements such as, I dont think public officials care much what people like me think.

Deciding Whether to Vote Some vote based upon their sense of civic duty, the belief that in order to support democratic government, a citizen should vote.

Registering to Vote Around 1900, states adopted voter registration laws. Some states, including Indiana, require citizens to register as much as 30 days in advance, whereas others permit Election Day registration.

Registering to Vote Motor Voter Act in 1993 requires states to permit people to register to vote when they apply for drivers licenses. Has not greatly affected voter turnout for elections

Registering to Vote Indiana pioneered voter ID laws, which SCOTUS held constitutional in 2008. Opponents of voter ID laws claim that such laws impose an undue burden on groups such as students, minorities, the poor.

Comparative Voting Rates

Who Votes? The Educated The Over-65 Crowd Whites Married People Government Employees

Who Votes? Differences in turnout rates among high- likelihood voting demographics are cumulative. Politicians listen far more carefully to groups with high turnout rates.

Who Votes?

Youth Turnout

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens Decisions Common explanation: citizens vote for candidate whose policy views they prefer Mandate theory of elections: the idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics. (Politicians like this theory better than do political scientists.)

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens Decisions Political scientists focus on three major elements of voters decisions: 1.Voters party identification 2.Voters evaluation of the candidates 3.The match between voters policy positions and those of the candidates and parties policy voting P

Party Identification Party identifications provide a regular perspective through which voters can view the political world. Once established, party identification is usually adhered to for a long period of time, as with other elements of social identity. Provides simplicity

Party Identification Since 1960s and 1970s, voters more likely to be floating to elect candidates based upon their perceived qualifications, rather than based upon their party affiliations. Young people particularly likely to be floating voters

Candidates appearances: studies have shown that it is possible to manipulate a candidates appearance in a way that affects voters choices Three most important dimension of candidates images: integrity, reliability (dependability, decisiveness), competence (intelligence) How Americans Evaluate the Candidates

When I first started writing about politics for [The New York] Times, I got criticized sometimes for focusing on the persona and not simply the policy. But as a student of Shakespeare, I always saw the person and the policy as inextricably braided. You had to know something about the person to whom you were going to entrust life and death decisions. Maureen Dowd, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist How Americans Evaluate the Candidates

Policy Voting Policy voting is the electoral choices that are made on the basis of the voters policy preferences and where the candidates stand on policy issues.

Policy Voting True policy voting requires that four conditions be met: 1.Voters must have a clear sense of their own policy positions. 2.Voters must know where the candidates stand on policy issues.

Policy Voting True policy voting requires that four conditions be met: 3.Voters must see differences between the candidates on the issues. 4.Voters must actually cast a vote for the candidate whose policy positions coincide with their own.

Policy Voting Historical obstacles to policy voting: Candidates cloud their positions on controversial issues in rhetoric. The media tend to focus on the horse race, not the candidates policy stands.

Policy Voting Todays candidates have more incentive to clearly delineate their policy issues in order to appeal to their partys ideologically motivated activists in the primaries.

The Electoral College Electoral College: A unique American institution created by the Constitution, providing for the selection of the president by electors chosen by the state parties. Although the Electoral College vote usually reflects a popular majority, less populated states are overrepresented, and the winner-take-all rule concentrates campaigns on close states.

The Electoral College Each state has as many electoral votes as it has U.S. senators and representatives. The state parties select slates of electors based upon patronage. Except for in Maine and Nebraska, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis.

The Electoral College In Maine and Nebraska, an elector is allocated for every congressional district won. Whoever wins the state as a whole receives the two electors allotted to the state for its senators.

The Electoral College Electors meet in their states in December, following the November election, and mail their votes to the vice president (who is also president of the Senate). The votes are counted when Congress convenes in January.

The Electoral College If no candidate receives an Electoral College majority, the House of Representatives chooses from the top three electoral vote winners. During this process, each state gets only one vote.

The Electoral College Importance of the Electoral College: It introduces a bias into the campaign and electoral process. Less populated states are overrepresented, due to each states receiving two electors for its senators regardless of population.

The Electoral College Importance of the Electoral College: The winner-take-all, norm means candidates will necessarily focus on winning a relatively small number of battleground states, key states that the presidential campaigns focus on because they are most likely to decide the outcome of the Electoral College vote.

Obamas campaign manager:

The Electoral College What if the Electoral College Is Tied?

Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior Functions which elections serve in U.S.: Socializing and institutionalizing political activity, making it possible for most political participation to be channeled through the electoral process, rather than through demonstrations, riots, or revolutions.

Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior Functions which elections serve in U.S.: Providing regular access to political power, enabling leaders to be replaced without their needing to be overthrown and therefore giving elections legitimacy in the peoples eyes

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? The permanent campaign Would people pay more attention if politics did not ask so much of them? Is politics so overwhelming that people stay on the sidelines?

Do Elections Affect Public Policy? The greater the policy differences between the candidates, the more likely voters will be able to steer government policies by their choices. The art of ambiguity: presidential candidates are skilled at appearing to say much while actually saying little.

Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? To secure votes from each region of the country, candidates end up supporting a variety of local interests. Promises usually add up to new government programs and money.

Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? The way that modern campaigns are conducted is thus one of many reasons why politicians often find it easier to expand the scope of American government than to limit it.

Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government? Citizens in a democracy often seek to benefit from, rather than be protected from, the state. Thus, as democracy has spread, government has come to do more and more, and its scope has grown.

CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Chapters 9 and 10 APUSGovPol.

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Transcript of CAMPAIGNS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Chapters 9 and 10 APUSGovPol.