CAMPAIGNSCAMPAIGNS& ELECTIONS& ELECTIONS

CHAPTERS 9 & CHAPTERS 9 & 1010

NOMINATIONS

NOMINATIONS Official endorsement of the party To gain a party nomination

requires risk-taking & the 3 M’s” money, media attention, momentum

Goal of the nomination game is to win support of the majority of delegates to a party convention

National party conventions Supreme Power within each party Function: nominate P & VP & write

platform

PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONPRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION Not addressed by the ConstitutionNot addressed by the Constitution So….parties devised national So….parties devised national

convention concept & has been in convention concept & has been in use since 1832use since 1832 Party Party out of power out of power has first has first

conventionconvention Party Party in power in power (P’s party) has (P’s party) has

last conventionlast convention State laws & party rules State laws & party rules

determine how each state selects determine how each state selects delegates to the conventionsdelegates to the conventions ¾ of states select by primaries¾ of states select by primaries Rest by party caucus or Rest by party caucus or

conventionconvention

Primaries/caucuses video

CAUCUS SYSTEMS Originally, all states used a caucus Originally, all states used a caucus

of state party leaders to select of state party leaders to select delegates to national conventiondelegates to national convention

Caucuses today open to allCaucuses today open to allvoters registered with a partyvoters registered with a party

Iowa has first caucusIowa has first caucus Caucuses organized in a Caucuses organized in a

pyramid system:pyramid system: Local party caucus chooses Local party caucus chooses

delegates to a delegates to a districtdistrict party meeting party meeting District choose delegates to District choose delegates to statestate State caucus chooses delegates to State caucus chooses delegates to

the the nationalnational convention convention

Iowa CaucusIowa Caucus

Residents of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in Residents of Iowa meet in precinct caucuses in all of Iowa's 1,774 precincts and elect delegates all of Iowa's 1,774 precincts and elect delegates to the corresponding county conventions.to the corresponding county conventions.

There are ninety-nine counties in Iowa, and thus There are ninety-nine counties in Iowa, and thus there are ninety-nine conventions.there are ninety-nine conventions.

These These countycounty conventions then select delegates conventions then select delegates for Iowa's for Iowa's statestate convention, which eventually convention, which eventually chooses the delegates for the chooses the delegates for the nationalnational presidential nominating conventions.presidential nominating conventions.

IowaIowa

The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy for the amount of media The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy for the amount of media attention they receive during U.S. presidential election attention they receive during U.S. presidential election years.years.

Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been the first major first major electoral event of the nominating process for President . electoral event of the nominating process for President .

Although only about 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen Although only about 1% of the nation's delegates are chosen by the Iowa State Convention, the Iowa caucuses have by the Iowa State Convention, the Iowa caucuses have served as an early indication of which candidates for served as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support.drop out for lack of support.

What criticism could be made about the level of impact that What criticism could be made about the level of impact that this caucus hasthis caucus has??

Race Iowa U.S. Population

White 93% 78%

Black 3.1% 13.1%

Latino 5.2% 16.7%

Dean Scream

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:

Primaries Primaries were promoted in 20were promoted in 20thth

century century to take nominations outto take nominations outof hands of party bossesof hands of party bosses

They are basically elimination contestsThey are basically elimination contests NH is first (since 1940) with January dateNH is first (since 1940) with January date

Only 3 times since ’52 has anyone lost Only 3 times since ’52 has anyone lost NH & won the nomination of their NH & won the nomination of their party (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush & party (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush & Barack Obama)Barack Obama)

It’s all about It’s all about IMAGEIMAGE

PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES: Parties match up # of delegates a Parties match up # of delegates a

candidate gets based on how candidate candidate gets based on how candidate did in primarydid in primary The actual delegates are chosen later by The actual delegates are chosen later by Ds require “proportional” allocationDs require “proportional” allocation Rs give states discretion (some winner take Rs give states discretion (some winner take

all; some proportional)all; some proportional) Democrats began “superdelegates” in Democrats began “superdelegates” in

’84’84 Slots set aside for public officeholders Slots set aside for public officeholders

(Governors, Senators, etc.) & party officials (Governors, Senators, etc.) & party officials (15%)(15%)

unpledged delegatesunpledged delegates Hoping to get element of “peer review” by Hoping to get element of “peer review” by

people familiar with the candidatespeople familiar with the candidates

Frontloading of Primaries:

Major trend with Major trend with primaries – states primaries – states began scheduling began scheduling them earlier & earlierthem earlier & earlier

So much So much ““frontloadingfrontloading” of ” of primaries that in primaries that in 2000, 2/3 of both D & 2000, 2/3 of both D & R delegates were R delegates were chosen within 6 chosen within 6 weeks of NH primaryweeks of NH primaryDarn! We won’t graduate in time for Electoral

College.

Super Tuesday March 6, 2012March 6, 2012 Alaska (c), Georgia (p), Idaho

(c),Massachusetts (p), N. Dakota (c), Ohio (p), Oklahoma (p), Tennessee (p), Vermont (p),Virginia (p)

Why so significant?

Florida’s presidential primary takes place January 31.

Primary contenders 2012Primary contenders 2012

Primary/Caucus System: Primary/Caucus System: AdvantagesAdvantages

PEOPLE’S CHOICE! Primaries give voters a PEOPLE’S CHOICE! Primaries give voters a large role in choosing a party’s large role in choosing a party’s presidential candidate.presidential candidate.

The long primary season gives voters time The long primary season gives voters time to get to know the candidates…….to get to know the candidates…….too too long?long?

Candidates can learn more about what Candidates can learn more about what voters want and what they’ll support once voters want and what they’ll support once a president is electeda president is elected..

CRITICISMS OF PRIMARY & CAUCUS SYSTEM

What are the criticisms? Disproportionate amount of attention goes to

early caucuses & primaries Money plays too big a role & running for P has

become a full time job Participation is low and is not representative of

voting population Generally about 20% participation Only the more educated, affluent vote in

primaries Give too much power to the media!

NATIONAL & REGIONAL PRIMARY NATIONAL & REGIONAL PRIMARY PROPOSALSPROPOSALS

NATIONAL: All nation votes in primary

election at same time Would be more simple &

direct Length & cost of campaign

reduced No state would have

higher impact Critics argue:

Would require a runoff Too much $ Too much media

REGIONAL: Different regions

of country would vote on different weeks

Rotate order Problem: which

region gets to go first

National Convention:National Convention: Original purpose: nominate candidatesOriginal purpose: nominate candidates But … little doubt now by the convention as But … little doubt now by the convention as

to who will get nominationto who will get nomination Last time for doubt – ’76 (Ford prevailed over Last time for doubt – ’76 (Ford prevailed over

Ronald Reagan by 1187 votes to 1070)Ronald Reagan by 1187 votes to 1070) Major purpose today – Major purpose today – party rally!party rally!

Really just a Really just a media eventmedia event Put party in best lightPut party in best light

Function is twofold:Function is twofold: officially nominate P & VPofficially nominate P & VP adopt a “adopt a “PLATFORMPLATFORM””

Platform consists of “Platform consists of “PLANKSPLANKS””

Only women ever nominated?Only women ever nominated? Only minorities ever nominated?Only minorities ever nominated?

THE CAMPAIGN GAME TECHNOLOGY RULES! Television changes?

The “horse race” not the issues Kennedy – Nixon Debate, 1960 Turning point for campaigns! Debates usually an advantage only

to challenger; incumbent or frontrunner runs risk of gaffe

COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY Internet web sites & fundraising Used for Direct Mailings

Target specific interests Gets millions to contribute

billions Media attention determined by

how candidates use their media budget (over half for TV) and free time they get

THE CAMPAIGN GAME

THE CAMPAIGN GAME

The Living Room Campaign

FEDERAL ELECTIONCAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974

Created because of: Increase in cost of campaigning due to

television Illegal campaign contributions exposed by

Watergate Goals:

Tighten reporting requirements for contributions

Limit overall expenditures for individuals & groups

Public funding-P primaries, elections, conventions

Presidential primariesPresidential primaries partly funded with public partly funded with public moneymoney

Presidential general elections: Presidential general elections: all public money all public money unless candidate chooses not to acceptunless candidate chooses not to accept

Congressional elections: Congressional elections: all private moneyall private money

FEDERAL ELECTIONCAMPAIGN ACT (FECA), 1974

Created FEC to administer & enforce – 6 bipartisanbipartisan members Created Presidential Election Campaign Fund Provides partial financing for P primaries

IF candidates raise $5,000 in at least 20 states, can get matching funds from U.S. gov’t for contributions of up to $250 – limits

Provides full public financing for P general elections

Fixed amount - $75 million, 2004; $54 million 2012 Required financial disclosure of contributions &

spending Limited contributions

Individuals - $1,000 (changed by McCain-Feingold in ’02 - $2,000 – now set at $2600)

70s reforms encouraged spread About 1000 by 1976

Any interest group, corporation,union, etc. can form its own PAC Have to register with FEC as a PAC Contribution limits - $5,000/candidate$5,000/candidate More open way for interest groups and

corporations and unions to contribute Expenditures have to be reported – over 1

billion spent in 2009-10 Trend is a proliferation in PACs – over 4,600 What types of elections does most PAC $ go

to? And PACs give mostly to incumbents - WHY?

Loopholes to FECA Buckley v. Valeo, 1976

Violation of free speech to restrict amounts people contribute to their own campaign

Perot, ’92-$60 million; Kerry, ’04-$7 million, Romney $35 MM

No restrictions allowed on groups so long as they were independent of any official election campaigns. Gave rise to a profusion of PACs.

Soft Money amendment to FECA in 1979 $ for party expenses at grass-roots level (as opposed to

individual campaign) for voter registration drives, distribution of campaign literature, etc. was not subject to contribution limits.

McCAIN-FEINGOLD ACT, 2002 -BCRA Banned soft money contributions Increased individual contributions to $2,000 (from

$1,000) Barred “issue ads” within 60 days of general election if

they refer to federal candidate & are NOT funded through PACs (which are regulated)

Now hear candidate’s voice – “I’m … and I approve this ad.”

A NEW LOOPHOLE: ISSUE ADVOCACYIndependent Expenditures

& 527 GROUPS This loophole came after soft $ banned Named after section of federal tax code Independent groups that do not “directly seek

the election of a particular candidate” They advocate ISSUES, not CANDIDATES. No limits on contributions if political messages don’t

directly endorse candidates with “vote for” or “vote against”…

These issue ads can’t be broadcast in the last 30 days before a primary or 60 days before a general election

$540 million spent by 527 groups in 2010 2004 – anti-Kerry group: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth 2004 – anti-Bush group: MoveOn.org

Campaign Ads 2004 - 2012

The Latest The Latest Loophole – Loophole – SuperPacs!SuperPacs!

Super PAC is a catchy term for a political action committee that can accept unlimited contributions from individuals and corporations to spend supporting a candidate as long as its efforts are not coordinated with the candidate’s own campaign.

Individuals, corporations, unions, and interest groups can give unlimited amounts to Super Pacs.

$ donated does have to be reported to FEC though (contrary to 527 groups)

Citizens United v. Citizens United v. Federal Election Federal Election CommissionCommission, , 20102010

U.S. Supreme Court U.S. Supreme Court decision upheld Super Pacsdecision upheld Super Pacs

Unlimited campaign Unlimited campaign advertising allowed so long as advertising allowed so long as it’s not coordinated with the it’s not coordinated with the campaigncampaign

Even restriction against using Even restriction against using direct language (“vote for”) direct language (“vote for”) was lifted.was lifted.

11stst Am. prohibits gov’t from Am. prohibits gov’t from limiting independent spending limiting independent spending for political purposes by for political purposes by corporations and unions.corporations and unions.

A 5–4 decisionA 5–4 decision. . Majority: Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia, Alito, Thomas

SUPERPACS!

Super PACs can raise unlimited sums of money from corporations, labor unions, individuals & associations, but must disclose them to the FEC.

Who can create a SuperPac?Who can create a SuperPac?

IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNS 3 MAJOR EFFECTS ON

VOTERS:1. Reinforcement2. Activation3. Conversion (least

impact)

Selective perception of voters weakens the effect of campaigns meaning?

3 Types of Elections:3 Types of Elections:

1.1. PrimariesPrimaries

2.2. General ElectionsGeneral Elections

3.3. Policy Question ElectionsPolicy Question Elections Two methods for getting on a state ballot in Two methods for getting on a state ballot in

policy question elections:policy question elections: InitiativeInitiative – voters “initiate” law – voters “initiate” law

Voters get petitions to place legislative measures Voters get petitions to place legislative measures and/or constitutional amendments directly on ballotand/or constitutional amendments directly on ballot

ReferendumReferendum – voters ratifying laws – voters ratifying laws Put on ballots due to strong opinion polls showing voters Put on ballots due to strong opinion polls showing voters

want something the legislature has not donewant something the legislature has not done OR, voters rejecting a measure passed by state OR, voters rejecting a measure passed by state

legislature; tax increases may require a referendumlegislature; tax increases may require a referendum

Initiatives & Referendums = direct Initiatives & Referendums = direct democracy!democracy!

Initiatives in FloridaInitiatives in Florida Florida's constitution of 1968 allows citizens to Florida's constitution of 1968 allows citizens to amend the amend the

constitution constitution by initiative; does not apply to state statutes. Most by initiative; does not apply to state statutes. Most amendments have been placed on the ballot by the legislature -- of amendments have been placed on the ballot by the legislature -- of the 110 amendments approved through 2006, 22 were initiatives and the 110 amendments approved through 2006, 22 were initiatives and 88 were legislative measures.88 were legislative measures. In 2000, environmentalists won a major victory with passage of an initiative In 2000, environmentalists won a major victory with passage of an initiative

mandating creation of a high-speed rail system and in 2002 voters approved a mandating creation of a high-speed rail system and in 2002 voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a minimum living space for pregnant constitutional amendment guaranteeing a minimum living space for pregnant pigs, an amendment that was ridiculed by some officials as trivializing the pigs, an amendment that was ridiculed by some officials as trivializing the constitution. constitution.

In 2006 Florida began requiring a 60 percent affirmative vote to In 2006 Florida began requiring a 60 percent affirmative vote to approve initiated constitutional amendments. With the passage of the approve initiated constitutional amendments. With the passage of the 60% majority amendment, Florida became one of only two states in 60% majority amendment, Florida became one of only two states in the nation to require a supermajority for constitutional amendments, the nation to require a supermajority for constitutional amendments, and the only initiative state with such a requirement. and the only initiative state with such a requirement.

VOTING IN AMERICAREASONS PEOPLE DON’TREASONS PEOPLE DON’T

As the right to vote As the right to vote has been extended, has been extended, fewer dofewer do

Noncitizens cannot Noncitizens cannot vote (by state law)vote (by state law)

Felons cannot vote in Felons cannot vote in FL, KY, and VAFL, KY, and VA

#1 reason for not #1 reason for not voting: can’t take voting: can’t take time off of work or time off of work or schoolschool

REASONS PEOPLE DOREASONS PEOPLE DO Sense of Sense of political political

efficacyefficacy Those who believe Those who believe

ordinary people can ordinary people can influence governmentinfluence government

Policy approachPolicy approach those who see a those who see a

difference in policy difference in policy between the 2 parties between the 2 parties votevote

Sense of civic dutySense of civic duty

U.S. uses the Austrialian ballot system for U.S. uses the Austrialian ballot system for voting – i.e., a voting – i.e., a secret ballotsecret ballot

Who controls the types of secret ballots used?Who controls the types of secret ballots used? STATESSTATES

Many different forms: electronic touch-Many different forms: electronic touch-screens, fill-in-the arrow, punch, etc.screens, fill-in-the arrow, punch, etc.

Oregon is the onlyOregon is the only

state that uses astate that uses a

mail-only ballot –mail-only ballot –

saves $$$$saves $$$$

VOTER VOTER REGISTRATIONREGISTRATION

Purpose:Purpose: to prevent corruptionto prevent corruption

associated with stuffing ballot boxesassociated with stuffing ballot boxes STATESSTATES set registration procedures set registration procedures FLFL – can vote if registered 29 days before – can vote if registered 29 days before

the electionthe election Motor Voter Act of 1993/6 allows voters Motor Voter Act of 1993/6 allows voters

to register when getting driver’s licensesto register when getting driver’s licenses Registration increased; turnout did NOTRegistration increased; turnout did NOT

VOTERS & VOTERS & TURNOUTTURNOUT Reasons turnout lower in U.S .Reasons turnout lower in U.S .

than elsewhere:than elsewhere: Required to registerRequired to register Vote A LOT more often than other nationsVote A LOT more often than other nations Some nations give holidays on voting daySome nations give holidays on voting day

Characteristics of those who DO vote:Characteristics of those who DO vote: Socio-economic Class: High education, incomeSocio-economic Class: High education, income

The most important factor in who will voteThe most important factor in who will vote Race: White BUT minorities with high education & income vote Race: White BUT minorities with high education & income vote

even moreeven more Gender: WomenGender: Women Marital Status: MarriedMarital Status: Married Region: North more than SouthRegion: North more than South Employment: Gov’t employees, union workersEmployment: Gov’t employees, union workers

HOW AMERICANS HOW AMERICANS VOTEVOTE

Mandate TheoryMandate Theory:: Winners of election have mandateWinners of election have mandate

from people to carry out campaign promisesfrom people to carry out campaign promises Three elements of voters’ decisionsThree elements of voters’ decisions::

Party identificationParty identification Single best predictor through 1950s; why not now?Single best predictor through 1950s; why not now?

Evaluations of candidatesEvaluations of candidates Look for integrity, reliability, competence, decisivenessLook for integrity, reliability, competence, decisiveness Manipulated by mediaManipulated by media

Policy Voting Policy Voting - match between voter’s - match between voter’s and candidate’s/party’s policy positionsand candidate’s/party’s policy positions

Choices based on voter’s own issue Choices based on voter’s own issue preferencespreferences

Problem: candidates tend to be ambiguousProblem: candidates tend to be ambiguous

ELECTORAL VOTES BY ELECTORAL VOTES BY STATESTATE

Solid Republican 151 Solid Democrat 186

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGEEach State has as many electoral votes as it has U.S. Senators and Representatives.

NOVEMBER Voters go to polls in thegeneral election & vote for P & VP ((popular vote)popular vote);;

But, are actually choosing aslate of electors chosen byeach political party.

The candidate who gets the most popular votes in a state gets ALL of that state’s electoral votes. It is a winner-take-all system.

FL currently has 29 electoral votes.

A candidate needs a majority of the electoral votes to win: 270 of the total 538 votes.

12th Amendment: If there is a tie (or no candidate gets a majority) in the electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses the P from the top 3 candidates. Each state gets only one vote.

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

DECEMBERDECEMBERElectors (representing only the winning candidate) meet in their state capitals and vote for P & VP.Are electors required to vote the way the state did?

JANUARYJANUARY

Votes from the states are opened by the Votes from the states are opened by the President of the Senate and counted and P President of the Senate and counted and P & VP winners are officially declared.& VP winners are officially declared.

January 20January 20 the new President is sworn in.the new President is sworn in.

So…what would be best campaign So…what would be best campaign strategies in our electoral college system?strategies in our electoral college system? focus on large, competitive and swing statesfocus on large, competitive and swing states focus on an issue that could swing a statefocus on an issue that could swing a state pick your VP based on regional balancepick your VP based on regional balance

Primary criticism of the Electoral College?

MAINE & NEBRASKA Maine & Nebraska do not use the winner-

take-all system in determining electoral votes.

These states use the Congressional District Method: Two of the state’s electoral votes go to the winner

of the popular vote in the state. Then one votes goes to the popular vote winner in

each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska) in their state.

Maine has used this method since the 1970’s and Nebraska since the 90’s.

Neither state had ever split its electoral vote until Nebraska did in 2008. McCain won the state and 1st and 3rd districts Obama got 1 vote from the 2nd district

MAINE & NEBRASKA

Maine & Nebraska do not use the winner-take-all system in determining electoral votes.

These states use the Congressional District Method: Two of the state’s electoral votes go to the winner

of the popular vote in the state. Then one votes goes to the popular vote winner in

each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska) in their state.

Maine has used this method since the 1970’s and Nebraska since the 90’s.

Neither state had ever split its electoral vote until Nebraska did in 2008. McCain won the state and 1st and 3rd districts Obama got 1 vote from the 2nd district

Problems with the Electoral Problems with the Electoral CollegeCollege

May win the popular vote, but lose the electoral voteMay win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote Small states are overrepresented since every state Small states are overrepresented since every state

gets 2 Senatorsgets 2 Senators Candidates tend to focus only on states with a close Candidates tend to focus only on states with a close

contestcontest Gives extra clout to large states & urban areasGives extra clout to large states & urban areas Works against third partiesWorks against third parties PROPOSALS FOR REFORM:PROPOSALS FOR REFORM:

1.1. The Direct Vote SystemThe Direct Vote System

2.2. The District Election PlanThe District Election Plan

3.3. The Proportional PlanThe Proportional Plan

4.4. The National Bonus PlanThe National Bonus Plan Why hasn’t it been abolished?Why hasn’t it been abolished?

THREE MAJOR ELECTIONSTHREE MAJOR ELECTIONS ELECTION OF 1800ELECTION OF 1800

John Adams, Federalist, John Adams, Federalist, loses his reelection bid to loses his reelection bid to

Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson, RepublicanRepublican

Significance:Significance: FIRST PEACEFUL TRANSFER FIRST PEACEFUL TRANSFER

OF POWER VIA THE OF POWER VIA THE ELECTORAL PROCESS (THE ELECTORAL PROCESS (THE VOTE) IN THE HISTORY OF VOTE) IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD!THE WORLD!

Election of 1896Election of 1896 Economics is issue – Economics is issue – gold vs. gold vs.

silver silver standard in monetary policystandard in monetary policy 80% VOTER TURNOUT!!80% VOTER TURNOUT!! William McKinley, the Republican William McKinley, the Republican

“seasoned politician” vs.“seasoned politician” vs. William Jennings Bryan, the William Jennings Bryan, the

Democratic “newcomer” (age 36).Democratic “newcomer” (age 36). A A turning point in politics turning point in politics – future – future

is in cities, not agrarian votesis in cities, not agrarian votes A victory for A victory for big business, big big business, big

citiescities, middle class values & , middle class values & financial financial conservatismconservatism

Republicans take White House for Republicans take White House for all but 8 of the next 36 years!all but 8 of the next 36 years!

Thomas NastThomas NastCreator of the Party Creator of the Party

SymbolsSymbols

ELECTION 2000What a mess!

ELECTORAL VOTE:BUSH (R) 277GORE (D) 261

POPULAR BUSH 50,456,062 (47.45%)VOTE: GORE 59,996,582 (48.04%)

FLORIDA VOTE: BUSH 2,912,790 GORE 2,912,253

537 Votes!

Nader got 97,000 votes in FL

Bush v. Gore, 2000Bush v. Gore, 2000 Bush’s lead in FL over Gore was less than 1/10 of

1% - triggered an automatic recount under FL law Palm Beach ballots led to lots of “no votes” with

ballots not properly punched through FLORIDA SUPREME COURT

Gore sued in FL Supreme Court to get a manual recount Bush opposed saying manual recount would be arbitrary,

subject to manipulation & differing standards FL SUPREME COURT ruled with Gore

U.S. SUPREME COURT Bush appealed SUPREME COURT overruled FL Court (agreeing with Bush) Held that even though recount was legal, same standards

for evaluation would have to be applied in all counties (which was impossible) and that the recount could not extend past the Dec. 12 date when FL electors would vote

Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot:Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot:

The Chad ProblemThe Chad Problem

Saturday Night Live!Election 2000

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/gore-state-of-the-union/229115