CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE EXERCISE

OCTOBER 21, 2010

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

The California Earthquake Authority staged a statewide earthquake drill

today (October 21st) to test Californians (and others throughout the world who participated) on their

knowledge of earthquakes and earthquake safety.

7.8 million registered participants, as of this morning, took part in the

Great California Shake Out drill designed to challenge individuals, schools, businesses and hospitals to practice state-of-the-art seismic safety measures in anticipation of

the next, inevitable big quake

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE APPLICABLE FOR

ANY HIGH-RISK SEISMIC ZONE

GOAL OF A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE

PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE BY INTEGRATING ALL ACCUMULATED

KNOWLEDGE INTO A COHERENT RISK REDUCTION MODEL

EXAMPLE: ONE OF THE WORLD’S WORST POTENTIAL

EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS--- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

(Concept Developed in 2008)

Source: US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and local, regional, and

national partners

BASED ON KNOWLEDGE ACCUMULATED THROUGH MONITORING, RESEARCH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKE

STUDIES

RISK MANAGEMENT

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• EDUCATIONAL SURGES

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

RISK MANAGEMENT

• PREVENTION

• MITIGATION

• PREPAREDNESS

• PREDICTION AND WARNING

• EDUCATIONAL SURGES

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS

RESEARCHRESEARCH

The Location of “The Big One”The Location of “The Big One” on the San Andreas Fault in 1857 on the San Andreas Fault in 1857

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FOR

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Mw = 7.8

“The Big One”

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR

Source: US Geological Survey

• Southern California is prone to earthquakes because of its location relative to the boundary between two major tectonic plates. • Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault.

The goal of the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable “big one” recurs.

LOS ANGELES.CA: 13.1 MILLION

DAMAGEDAMAGEDAMAGEDAMAGE

PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK

PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK

COLLAPSECOLLAPSECOLLAPSECOLLAPSE

LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSS

RISKRISKRISKRISK

• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.

• These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.

Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13) Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8)

Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15) Fire Protection (ESF 4)

Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution  (ESF 7) Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12)

Hazardous Materials (ESF 10) Evacuee Case Mgmt / Family Reunification )  (ESF 6 & 8)

To learn more about the Shake Out, and to register to

be included in the official participation head count,

visit www.shakeout.org