EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS AND EFFECTS

SEATACWASHINGTON

Dr. Walter Hays

US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (retired)

Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

THE HEADLINES WE NEVER WANT TO READ

COULD HAPPEN IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION

ZONE ANYTIME

“A CATASTROPHE IN THE SEATTLE, WA AREA” 1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE

2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP3) MT RAINIER ERUPTS; LAHAR

IMPACTS SEATAC AND THE AREA

4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVESSEATAC IMMOBILIZED

DATE: TBD

CASCADIA SUDUCTION ZONE

THREE KINDS OF EARTHQUAKES

THREE KINDS OF EARTHQUAKES

• CRUSTAL (0-25 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.4

• CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE (25-40 KM) WITH M UP TO 9.5

• BENIOF ZONE (40-70 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.5

• CRUSTAL (0-25 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.4

• CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE (25-40 KM) WITH M UP TO 9.5

• BENIOF ZONE (40-70 KM) WITH M UP TO 7.5

• NISQUALLY WAS AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE LIKE THOSE OF 1949 AND 1965

• NISQUALLY WAS AN INTRAPLATE EARTHQUAKE LIKE THOSE OF 1949 AND 1965

SEATAC: AT RISK

SEATTLE: AT RISK

BACKGROUND

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

• The Cascadia subduction zone, which extends from Vancouver Island to Cape Mendiceno, is capable of producing earthquakes of M 8 to 9+ and a destructive tsunami whenever M = 8.0+.

FREQUENCY OF CSZ EARTHQUAKES

• Moderate crustal earthquakes (M6.5) occur about once ever 35 years and great earthquakes (M 8.0-9.0) occur about once every 500 years.

• At present, the probability of a M9.0 earthquake occurring during the next 50 years is 10 – 14 percent.

PAST CSZ EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS

• The Cascadia subduction zone produced a M9.0 earthquake and a destructive tsunami on January 26, 1700 that left its “fingerprints in the Puget Sound area” before traveling the Pacific and reaching Japan.

EARTHQUAKES

• USUALLY NO WARNING AND NO EVACUATION

• SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION OF THE BUILDINGS TO WITHSTAND GROUND SHAKING

• ECONOMIC LOSS DEPENDS ON THE SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION.

LOSS OF LIFE LOSS OF LIFE

• LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES.

• EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED.

• LOSS OF LIFE HAS REACHED TENS OF THOUSANDS OR MORE IN SOME MAJOR EARTHQUAKES.

• EVACUATION TO GET PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY IS NOT POSSIBLE, BECAUSE THE TIME OF OCCURRENCE CAN NOT BE RELIABLY PREDICTED.

ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS

• AVERAGE ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS TO BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE FROM EARTH- QUAKES IN THE USA NOW REACHES $4 BILLIONS

• AVERAGE ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSS TO BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE FROM EARTH- QUAKES IN THE USA NOW REACHES $4 BILLIONS

THREE QUEESTIONS

THREE QUESTIONS?

WHAT CAN HAPPEN? WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL

CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN? WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR

A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (IT MAY BE SHALLOW OR IT MAY BE DEEP) IN THE

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE?

CONSENSUS ON QUESTION ONE

WHAT CAN HAPPEN

LOCAL JURISDICTIONS ARE AT HIGH RISK

FROM THE EFFECTS OF 1) CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES,

2) CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS,

AND 3) (POSSIBLE) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

LOCAL JURISDICTIONS ARE AT HIGH RISK

FROM THE EFFECTS OF 1) CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES,

2) CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS,

AND 3) (POSSIBLE) VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

THE FAULTS

The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a Special Reverse Fault

Strike-SlipReverse

Normal

So far, 13 major crustal faults are identified in the

Puget Sound area.

Three of the most important faults are the Cascadia fault zone, the

South Whidbey island fault zone, and the Seattle fault

zone.

SEATTLE FAULT ZONE

The Seattle fault is an E-W trending zone of complex thrust

and reverse faults up to 7 km wide and over 70 km long that

delineates the north edge of the Seattle Uplift..

The Seattle fault was first identified in 1965, but it was not

documented as a seismically active fault until 1992.

SOUTH WHIDBEY ISLAND FAULT ZONE

Unlike most fault systems that run parallel to oceans and mountain

ranges, the South Whidbey Island fault zone crosses the volcanic arc

of the Cascade Range, reaching possibly to the Tri-Cities in Southeast Washington, and possibly connecting with the Cascadia subduction zone.

The South Whidbey Island fault is long enough to generate a M7.0 - 7.5

earthquake, but it is shallow (20 km), which means that the ground

shaking will be much stronger than if the focal depth were 50 km as in

the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN?

STRONG GROUND SHAKINGLANDSLIDES

LIQUEFACTIONSUBSIDENCE

TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UPAWAKENING OF MT RAINIER

SUBSIDENCE

EARTHQUAKE

TSUNAMI

GROUND SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION FAILURE

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION

LANDSLIDES

AFTERSHOCKS

SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS

THE GROUND SHAKING

DURATION OF GROUND SHAKING IN CSZ EARTHQUAKES

• Ground shaking will have a duration of about 20 seconds in a M6.0 earthquake, and up to ten minutes in a M9.0 earthquake.

A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

• Long-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a M9.0 CSZ earthquake.

• Long-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting tall buildings, long bridges, and long pipelines into vibration.

M6 - 7 CRUSTAL EARTHQUAKES

• Short-period waves will dominate the ground shaking of a crustal CSZ earthquake.

• Short-period ground shaking is very efficient in exciting short buildings, short bridges, and interior contents into vibration.

AFTERSHOCKS OF A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

• Aftershocks of a M9.0 earthquake will likely occur over a period of 12-24 months.

• The aftershocks with M= 8.0+ may also generate a tsunami.

REALITY CHECK ON QUESTION TWO

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY

CONSEQUENCES OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN

THE FEBRUARY 28, 2001 NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE

THE FEBRUARY 28, 2001 NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE

“A 10:54:32 AM WAKE UP CALL”

FOR OLYMPIA, TACOMA, SEATTLE,

THURSTON , PIERCE, AND KING COUNTIES

“A 10:54:32 AM WAKE UP CALL”

FOR OLYMPIA, TACOMA, SEATTLE,

THURSTON , PIERCE, AND KING COUNTIES

NISQUALLY EARTHQUAKENISQUALLY EARTHQUAKE

• M6.8

• DEPTH: 33 MILES

• 10:54:32 AM

• 11MILES NE OF OLYMPIA

• 14 KM SW OF TACOMA

• 35 MILES SW OF SEATTLE

• M6.8

• DEPTH: 33 MILES

• 10:54:32 AM

• 11MILES NE OF OLYMPIA

• 14 KM SW OF TACOMA

• 35 MILES SW OF SEATTLE

• GROUND SHAKING VARIABLE

• PGA OF 10 TO 25 PERCENT GRAVITY

• NO BUILDINGS COLLAPSED

• ONE DEATH• 400 INJURIES• ECONOMIC LOSSES

ORDER OF $ 2 B

• GROUND SHAKING VARIABLE

• PGA OF 10 TO 25 PERCENT GRAVITY

• NO BUILDINGS COLLAPSED

• ONE DEATH• 400 INJURIES• ECONOMIC LOSSES

ORDER OF $ 2 B

ECONOMIC LOSSESECONOMIC LOSSES

• $ 1B-$2B-$3B??? • DAMAGE TO 13,000

DWELLINGS

• DAMAGE TO 1,100 PUBLIC BUILDINGS

• DAMAGE TO TRANSPORTATION/ COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

• $ 1B-$2B-$3B???

• DAMAGE TO 13,000 DWELLINGS

• DAMAGE TO 1,100 PUBLIC BUILDINGS

• DAMAGE TO TRANSPORTATION/ COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

• TWENTY-TWO COUNTIES APPLIED FOR FEDERAL ASISTANCE

• $15.5 MILLION IN RENTAL ASSISTANCE

• TWENTY-TWO COUNTIES APPLIED FOR FEDERAL ASISTANCE

• $15.5 MILLION IN RENTAL ASSISTANCE

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

STRONG GROUND SHAKINGSTRONG GROUND SHAKING

• THIRTEEN OF THIRTY-ONE RECORDS SHOWED GM > 10 PERCENT OF GRAVITY

• TWO SHOWED GM > 25 PERECNT OF GRAVITY

• THIRTEEN OF THIRTY-ONE RECORDS SHOWED GM > 10 PERCENT OF GRAVITY

• TWO SHOWED GM > 25 PERECNT OF GRAVITY

• GROUND MOTIONS WERE COMPLEX, VARYING WIDELY AS FUNCTION OF DEPTH OF QUAKE, GEOLOGY, AND SOFTNESS OF SOILS

• GROUND MOTIONS WERE COMPLEX, VARYING WIDELY AS FUNCTION OF DEPTH OF QUAKE, GEOLOGY, AND SOFTNESS OF SOILS

BUILDING DAMAGEBUILDING DAMAGE

• FIFTY “RED TAGGED” BUILDINGS

• TWO HUNDRED FIFTY “YELLOW TAGGED” BUILDINGS

• MOSTLY URM’S• CHIMNEY

DAMAGE• NO COLLAPSES• SOME POUNDING• ONE DEATH• 400 INJURIES

• MOSTLY URM’S• CHIMNEY

DAMAGE• NO COLLAPSES• SOME POUNDING• ONE DEATH• 400 INJURIES

CAPITAL BUILDING--OLYMPIACAPITAL BUILDING--OLYMPIA

PIONEER SQUARE--SEATTLEPIONEER SQUARE--SEATTLE

EXAMPLES OF BUSINESS INTERRUPTION

EXAMPLES OF BUSINESS INTERRUPTION

• POWER

• COMMUNICATION

• TRANSPORTATION

• NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

• DEBRIS

• NO CONTINGENCY/ RECOVERY PLAN

• POWER

• COMMUNICATION

• TRANSPORTATION

• NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE

• DEBRIS

• NO CONTINGENCY/ RECOVERY PLAN

• WASHINGTON FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK

• STARBUCKS• MICROSOFT

• AMAZON DOT COM

• SEATAC

• WASHINGTON FEDERAL SAVINGS BANK

• STARBUCKS• MICROSOFT

• AMAZON DOT COM

• SEATAC

LIFELINE SYSTEMSLIFELINE SYSTEMS

• SEATAC: ONE-HALF OF CAPACITY

• COMMUNICATIONS OUT 24 HOURS

• ELECTRICAL SERVICE --6 HOURS

• WATER SERVICE MAINTAINED

• GAS RELIGHTS--1 WEEK

• SEATAC: ONE-HALF OF CAPACITY

• COMMUNICATIONS OUT 24 HOURS

• ELECTRICAL SERVICE --6 HOURS

• WATER SERVICE MAINTAINED

• GAS RELIGHTS--1 WEEK

• INTERSTATE 5 CLOSED 12 HOURS

• ALASKAN WAY VIADUCT OPEN-CLOSED-OPEN

• 4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--TRAFFIC

• PORTS--NO DISRUPTION

• INTERSTATE 5 CLOSED 12 HOURS

• ALASKAN WAY VIADUCT OPEN-CLOSED-OPEN

• 4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--TRAFFIC

• PORTS--NO DISRUPTION

SEATAC CONTROL TOWER SEATAC CONTROL TOWER

SEATAC AIRPORTSEATAC AIRPORT

• AIRPORT CONTROL TOWERS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO STRUCTURAL AND NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM GROUND SHAKING

• AIRPORT CONTROL TOWERS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO STRUCTURAL AND NON-STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM GROUND SHAKING

• FLIGHT CAPACITY REDUCED FROM 40/HOUR TO 24/HOUR

• FLIGHT CAPACITY REDUCED FROM 40/HOUR TO 24/HOUR

LIQUEFACTION

• MULTIPLE SITES IN OLYMPIA (CAPITAL LAKE) AND TUMWATER

• MULTIPLE SITES ALONG THE DUWAMISH RIVER

• RUNWAY OF KING COUNTY AIRPORT (BOEING FIELD)

• MULTIPLE SITES IN OLYMPIA (CAPITAL LAKE) AND TUMWATER

• MULTIPLE SITES ALONG THE DUWAMISH RIVER

• RUNWAY OF KING COUNTY AIRPORT (BOEING FIELD)

• OBSERVATIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE IN THE 1949 AND 1965 EARTHQUAKES

• OBSERVATIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE IN THE 1949 AND 1965 EARTHQUAKES

LIQUEFACTIONLIQUEFACTION

LATERAL SPREADINGLATERAL SPREADING

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--OLYMPIA4TH AVENUE BRIDGE--OLYMPIA

THE TSUNAMI

A TSUNAMI IS INEVITABLE IN A M8-9 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

A TSUNAMI IS INEVITABLE IN A M8-9 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

A CSZ TSUNAMI

• Residents of coastal communities will have about 15-20 minutes before the arrival of tsunami waves.

• Waves will travel inland ½ mile or more, depending on the terrain, and then return to the ocean.

A CSZ TSUNAMI

• Tsunami waves can continue for hours.

• Late-arriving tsunami waves can be larger and more deadly than early-arriving waves.

SUBSIDENCE IN A M9.0 CSZ EARTHQUAKE

• Much of the land along the Pacific coast will subside (sink) about 5 feet during the earthquake.

• Coastal communities will be susceptible to flooding and tsunami wave run up.

AWAKENING OF MOUNT RAINIER

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

CONSENSUS ON QUESTION THREE

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO BE READY FOR A MAJOR

EARTHQUAKE

KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY;RECOGNIZE AND ELIMINATE

PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN YOUR COMMUNITY’S

BUILDINGS AND LIFELINES

KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY;RECOGNIZE AND ELIMINATE

PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN YOUR COMMUNITY’S

BUILDINGS AND LIFELINES

GOALS: KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY AND AVOID SINGLE POINTS OF FAILURE

GOALS: KNOW WHAT IS LIKELY AND AVOID SINGLE POINTS OF FAILURE

PART 2

HISTORIC HEADLINES READ BY THE WORLD THAT ARE RELEVANT FOR SEATAC AND THE PUGET SOUND

AREA

A CATASTROPHE IN JAPAN

1) M9.0 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

3) FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR CRISIS

4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3 – 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES

RADIATION LEAKS

2:46 pm MARCH 11, 2011

THE HEADLINES WE NEVER WANT TO READ

COULD HAPPEN IN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION

ZONE ANYTIME

“A CATASTROPHE IN SEATTLE AREA”

1) M9.0 EARTHQUAKE2) TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

3) MT RAINIER LAHAR IMPACTS

SEATAC AND THE AREA 4TH LARGEST QUAKE EVER 3

– 10 M TSUNAMI WAVES

SEATAC IMMOBILIZED

UNKNOWN DATE

BACKGROUND

Natural Phenomena that Caused the Catastrophe

Planet Earth’s Ongoing Convergent Plate Motion Caused:

Earthquakes (e.g., The M9.0 Tohoku Quake in Japan)

CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE AND JAPAN’S SUBDUCTION ZONE• The Cascadia subduction zone and

the subduction zone near Sendai, Japan are similar in a tectonic sense.

• Japan’s subduction zone produced a M9.0 earthquake and a destructive tsunami on 11 March 2011.

Natural Phenomena that Caused the Catastrophe

Planet Earth’s Convergent Plate Motion Caused:

A Tsunami (e.g., 3-10 m wave runup in Japan)

ALL THE RESULT OF PLATE TECTONICS

THE EARTHQUAKE

GROUND SHAKING WITHIN SECONDS

AFTER 2:46 PM

LOCATION: 133 KM (80 MI) OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU

OFFSHORE EPICENTER

• It only took seconds for the P-and S-waves and minutes for the tsunami waves to reach Sendai..

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EATHQUAKE

• Ground shaking lasted 300 seconds (compared with about 10 - 20 seconds for the 1994 Northridge, CA or the 2001 Nisqually, Washington quakes).

• Hundreds of aftershocks, many in the M6+ range and comparable in size with the damaging 1971 San Fernando CA quake, followed the main shock.

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE

• The ground shaking from the main shock and aftershocks caused major damage, but no unusual failures of structures or lifeline systems, in northern Japan.

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE

• Four million were left without electricity.

• Metro, trains, and airport shut down.

AKASAKA: TRAFFIC JAM AFTER EARTHQUAKE

PASSENGERS STRANDED: SENDAI STATION

FIRES

SIMULTANEOUSLY

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: EARTHQUAKE

• Simultaneously, wide spread fires burned out of control.

FIRE: NEAR SENDAI AIRPORT

THE NUCLEAR CRISIS

DEVELOPING DURING DAYS 1- 7

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: NUCLEAR

• The nuclear power plants in the region shut down automatically; an immediate evacuation of several thousand people in a 20 km radius followed.

• Following an explosion, radiation levels were 1,000 times normal levels at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear facility.

FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR FACILITY HAD 3 FAILURES

THE TSUNAMI

ABOUT 15 MINUTES LATER

SUMMARY OF SOCIETAL IMPACTS: TSUNAMI

• The tsunami that followed within about 15 minutes, changed coast lines by almost 2 m and inundated land that will probably never be used again.

JAPAN: BEFORE (LEFT) AND AFTER (RIGHT)

THE TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCE: 130 KM (80 MI) OFFSHORE

• The tsunami slammed the east coast of Japan, sweeping away boats, cars, homes and people, then racing across the Pacific at 822 -1222 kph (500 to 800 mph) to arrive 5-7 hours later in Alaska and Hawaii and other parts of the West Coast of the USA, and 18 hours later along the coast of South America.

TSUNAMI WAVES:NATON MYIAGI PREFECTURE

OARAI INUNDATED BY TSUNAMI

TSUNAMI WAVES REACH COAST OF NORTHERN JAPAN

THE 3-10 M TSUNAM WAVE RUNUP WAS DEVASTATING

The tsunami waves inundated towns, immobilized airports, destroyed buildings, and treated everything (e.g., people, cars) in its path as debris.

SENDAI AIRPORT

SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED WITH MUD FROM TSUNAMI

SENDAI AIRPORT: COVERED WITH CARS, MUD, & DEBRIS

TSUNAMI WAVE PATH

THE TSUNAMI TRAVELED ACROSS THE PACIFIC

URGENT SOCIETAL NEEDS

• Vertical evacuation to escape the tsunami wave run up, the only way to save lives, was not available to everyone.

• Search and rescue: an urgent need over a wide geographical area, was hindered.

• Mass care and health care needs urgent, especially in view of the high radiation.

• With so many people missing, deaths are expected to reach in the thousands.

SEARCH AND RESCUE

HAWAII

• The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported that water rushed ashore in Honolulu, swamping the beach in Waikiki and surging over the break wall in the world-famous resort, BUT stopping short of the area's high-rise hotels.

CRESCENT CITY, CA

SAN FRANCISCO, CA

LIMA PERU: EMPTY BEACHES AFTER WARNING