BUFFALO NIAGARALABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY?

University at Buffalo Regional Institute

Buffalo Niagara Enterprise

Sponsored by:

CONTEXT AND APPROACH

Premise: a regional economy IS its labor market

Scope: eight-county Buffalo Niagara

Time: six-month effort, 2010

Engagement: Project Advisory Group, consultation

Labor market stakeholders, perspectives

Regional employers, survey responses

Approach: imagined interview with prospective employers

IMAGINING THE CEO’S QUESTIONS

WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?

WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR?

WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?

WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE

WORKFORCE?

WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION?

WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?

WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?

The Big

Picture

WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?

More than ever before,

Buffalo Niagara’s economy

mirrors that of the

nation.

Industry Composition by Total Employment, 2009

Total Jobs = ~660,000

WHAT DOES THE REGIONAL ECONOMY LOOK LIKE?

% Total Employment in

Manufacturing and Financial/Health/Education/Professional Services,

Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009

Manufacturing no longer dominates

Service jobs now drive the

regional economy

Region resembles the nation, making it less subject to “boom

and bust” of less diversified economies

% Total Employment in Manufacturing,

Buffalo Niagara and U.S., 1970 to 2009

WHAT IS THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR LABOR?

Job growth in health services, professional &

business services, leisure and hospitality,

education, and financial

activities.

Job decline in manufacturing,

communications & information, and

trade, transportation & utilities.

Pct. change in jobs, 2001-2008

WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?

63%

37%

Roughly two-thirds are

employed or seeking

employment, constituting a

workforce of nearly 800,000.

The Buffalo Niagara labor

supply consists of 1.2 million

persons age 16+.

WHAT IS THE REGIONAL SUPPLY OF LABOR?

Age 55+ workers are more

dominant in the regional

workforce relative to U.S. and some

metro comparisons.

Age 25-34 workers are under-

represented in the regional workforce relative to U.S. and

some metro comparisons.

WHO IS ENTERING AND EXITING THE WORKFORCE?

Educational institutions produce a local labor

pool of 30,000+ potential workers

annually.

10,000 workers will

retire annually.

Without new job creation, job entrants

face a tight market; given grad degrees,

skilled trade labor may be in short supply.

WHAT ARE WAGES LIKE IN THE REGION?

Wages tend to fall below

national averages for

higher-paying occupations;

wages are generally

higher for goods-

producing jobs.

A stand-alone Wage & Salary report

offers details.

WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?

Within sectors, the 17% private sector

union rate compares to 78% for public

sector workers.

Estimated Unionized Jobs among the Public and Private Sector in Buffalo Niagara Region, 2009

Across the public and private sectors,

roughly 192,000, or 29%, of the region’s

job are unionized.

WHAT ABOUT UNIONS IN THE REGION?

While still above national levels, private

sector unionization is

declining in the metro area.

% Union Membership Among Private Sector Workers in the

Buffalo-Niagara Falls Metropolitan Area, 1986-2009

26%

17%

SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES

Roughly, a 40% share of the

economy

Employment as a share of total economy in Buffalo

Niagara, ranked by industry, 2009

Tourism

Advanced Manufacturing

Green

Back Office

Logistics

Life Sciences

Agribusiness

SNAPSHOT OF BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES

For each target industry, the

report provides…

Number of firms

Number of employees

Top ten occupations

Wage range

Workforce by degrees

Workforce preparedness

BNE TARGET INDUSTRIES

Firms…

Where are the firms and how large are they?

Tourism

firms…

Agribusiness

firms…

Size of firm, by# of employees…

…by size of firm

…and by degree ofconcentration

HIGHLOW

Advanced Mfg

firms…

Back Office firms…

Green

firms…

Logistics

firms…

Life

Sciences

firms…

For each county, the report provides…

Number of firms

Number of jobs

Number in labor force

% employment in public sector

Avg. private sector wage

COUNTY COMPARISONSOverview

Educational attainment

Commuting patterns

Top fields of study for county-based higher education

COUNTY COMPARISONS

Erie has highest ratio –at 5 jobs

to every 10 people

Genesee, Chautauqua

and Cattaraugus

have 4 jobs for every 10 people

Niagara, Wyoming,

Orleans and Allegany have 3

Job Concentration

COUNTY COMPARISONS

In general, counties with

smaller populations and

fewer job opportunities

tend to rely more heavily on

the public sector for jobs

Public Sector Employment

PROSPECTS

Projections through 2016 by the NYS

Dept of Labor show a continued shift

away from manufacturing to growth in service

professions, led by health services.

F O R T H E B U F F A L O N I A G A R A L A B O R M A R K E T

Projected Job

Gains or Losses to

2016,

By Industry…

…per year

The shift toward knowledge-based

jobs may signal opportunities to

retain college-educated job force

entrants.

Continued population aging; workers age 55+ grow faster than nationally

Projected 20,000 retirees per year beginning in 2020, highest in health services, education and

manufacturing

Educated workforce entrants will remain ample

PROSPECTS

What else might we expect? …

F O R T H E B U F F A L O N I A G A R A L A B O R M A R K E T

To keep educated youth, knowledge-based sectors must grow

BUFFALO NIAGARALABOR MARKET ASSESSMENT 2010WHO’S YOUR ECONOMY?

University at Buffalo Regional Institute

Buffalo Niagara Enterprise

Sponsored by: