Bridging the Gap:

Getting from Climate Projections to Decisions,A Marin County Case Study

NBWAApril 1, 2011

Sara S. Moore, Zavaleta Lab, UC Santa Cruz

Red-Legged Frogs. John Sullivan/Ribbit Photography

• Background on adaptation

• The California study

• The Marin County case study

• Conclusion

Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study

“Adaptation” consists of...

• Actions to realize gains from opportunities or to reduce the damages that result from climate change.

p. 11, Agrawala, S. & S. Fankhauser (Eds.) (2008). Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Costs, Benefits and Policy Instruments. Office of the Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

How is adaptation related to mitigation?

• Mitigation is driving a Prius.

• Adaptation is driving your Prius to higher ground.

The Building Blocks of Climate Adaptation

1. Emergency Services

2. Safety Measures / Disaster Prevention

Impact planning horizon (near to long term)

3. Protecting human systems

4. Protecting natural systems

Fire, flood, heat, storms

5. Protecting clean air and water supply (forests, rivers, groundwater)

6. Mitigation of GHGs

You might need a car to get to safety

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Promoting healthy forests and urban

green spaces reduces both

GHGs and

the impacts of climate change

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“Co-benefits”

“No Regrets” Adaptation Approach

• Has benefits even in the absence of climate change.

• Popular (cheap, OK for skeptics).

• It looks a lot like business as usual.

“Mainstreaming” Adaptation Approach

• Climate change impacts considered within existing plans.

• Theoretically the best way to prepare.

• Tends to produce “no regrets” actions.

• It looks a lot like business as usual.

“Ecosystem-Based” Adaptation

• Using natural systems as a basis for adaptation strategies.– Popular among resource mgrs.– Most natural– effective? Cost-effective?– More flexible than infrastructure – Example: wetlands v. sea wall.

• Needs more research to sell it to politicians.

“Top Down” v. “Bottom Up” Approaches

• Describes where direction for action originates.

Funding, Guidance, Coordination

Pilot project feedback, Critical variables for decisions, Knowledge of local history of change

What makes adaptation choices hard?

•Uncertainty•Costs•Perception of “giving up”

What do you do when people won’t move?

What is the state’s responsibility to the people of Pacifica?

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• Background on adaptation

• The California study

• The Marin County case study

• Conclusion

Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study

Samson, et al. (2011) “Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations,” Global Ecology and Biogeography.

Global Vulnerability Map

Global Climate-Demography Vulnerability Index (CDVI):

Red = really bad

California’s Climate Vulnerability

http://conserveonline.org/workspaces/CA.climate.change/documents/california-climate-stress-reports/view.html - posted by Kirk Klausmeyer, TNC, 2009

“Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California”

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How can we bridge the data-decision gapfor resource managers?

• Public natural resource management context

• California case study

• Using scenario planning (workshop, technical memo)

• To support decision-making around the state

• Background on adaptation

• The California study

• The Marin County case study

• Conclusion

Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study

West Marin Protected Areas:Bolinas Lagoon, Muir Woods NM (GGNRA), Point Reyes NS, Marin Municipal Water District, Samuel P. Taylor and Mt. Tam SPs

Case Study “Futures of Wild Marin”

Collaborators, Informers

• Erika Zavaleta, UCSC

• Rebecca Shaw, TNC / EDF

• NPS facilitators from the Global Business Network

• Reps from 15 agencies invited to one day workshop on Jan. 28, 2011

• Audubon Canyon Ranch• Bolinas Community Public Utility District - BCPUD• California Dept of Fish and Game• California State Parks - Marin District• Department of Water Resources - North Central

Region Office• Marin Agricultural Land Trust - MALT• Marin County Fire Department• Marin County Parks and Open Space• Marin County Planning Department• Marin Municipal Water District - MMWD• Marin Resource Conservation District• NPS / GGNRA• Pepperwood Preserve• Point Reyes Bird Observatory - PRBO• Point Reyes NS

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Decision-making under climate uncertainty

• “Ensemble” – Majority of available studies agree it will be

warmer, drier, etc.

• Scenario planning – Inevitabilities + uncertainties – Factors that put you in a new decision-making

environment

What are scenarios?

Not predictions: no probabilities attached

Multiple, plausible futuresNarratives outside the norm

Navigation tool to get past paralysis

Pros and Cons of Scenarios

Pro• Interactions, extremes, secondary impacts• Ideas, experience, management priorities

drive the process (informed by science)• Action-oriented• Encourages broad, collaborative thinking• Gets past paralysis from not having all factsCon• Plausible futures = no more probable than

climate model output

Project Design

1.Select case study site2. Create scenario development team

August 2010: 13 sites considered

Criteria for selection: – High feasibility– Has good climate data– "Significant" to state– Human & natural systems interact – Land use types mixed– Land management jurisdictions mixed

3. Develop scenarios

– 100% within state (this excluded Lake Tahoe)

– Minimally 1 sq. mile (not too small)– Mainly terrestrial – Includes State Parks

Project Design

1.Select case study site2. Create scenario development team

October 2010: Team of 10 selected based on these criteria:

– Work or worked in the case study site

– Involved in long-term planning within their agency or organization

– Consume or produce climate change data for decision-making

– Available for 3 one hour phone calls in Nov., Dec., and Jan. + workshop

3. Develop scenarios

Project Design

1.Select case study site2. Create scenario development team

3. Develop scenarios

Top Drivers of Change

More Easterly More Northerly2. Direction of Strong Wind

Earlier Later1. Onset of Dry Season

Same or lesser Significantly greater

3. Capacity to Respond

1. Air temperature up.

2. Sea level up.

3. Seasonal extremes more prevalent.

4. Reduced biodiversity.

Two Climatic Variables

Nature of Leadership

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The Climatic Scenarios

Nature of Leadership

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More Northerly Wind

More Easterly Wind

Onset of Dry Season Later Dry Season

Earlier Dry Season

Warm Air, Wet Soil New invasives become

dominant, new diseases Erosion and flooding plus

plant disease devastate farmers

Warm Air, Dry Soil Loss of life due to wildfire Flood control deprioritized Water supply critically low

Cool Air, Wet Soil Redwood population

maintains well in refugia Erosion and flooding destroy

coastal infrastructure

Cool Air, Dry Soil Landscapes less productive Disease and invasives

curtailed

“Fryin’ and Cryin’”

• Defined by: – Earlier dry season, – Stronger easterlies, – Same/ less capacity

• Headlines/ Events:– Big forest die-off on Mount Tam– Lost wetlands, vernal pools– State Parks lose funding– Big fires we can’t fight– ESA suspended, Coho locally extirpated

• Top Actions:– Institutional coordination– Mandatory water rationing– Communication campaign/ volunteer science

Common Definition of Adaptationby scenario development team

1. Maintain key ecosystem functions (to provide the benefits of nature to human populations);

2. Facilitate a gentler transition under climate change, based on natural systems;

3. Maintain bioregional native biodiversity.

Climate change adaptation should:

After Brainstorming Actions by Scenario:Criteria for Prioritization

• Flexible/ robust to multiple scenarios• Collaborative/ doesn’t duplicate efforts• Uses adaptive management: uses

monitoring, correct scale of design, best science, pilot programs, etc.

• Cost-effective/ sustainable• Has clarity of design and transparency of

implementation process

Sample Priorities for Action

Create a regional and collaborative approach to adaptation.

Create a Ready-to-go Rapid Response Team – climate events, invasives, etc.

Concrete Next Steps

• Inter-agency Statement of Agreement on climate change adaptation for Marin County.

• Downscaled climate vulnerability analysis for Marin County.

• Integrate into state efforts.

One Small Decision

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• Background on adaptation

• The California study

• The Marin County case study

• Conclusion

Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study

Lessons Learned

• Keep it mixed: orgs, agencies• Make geography smaller for specificity• Attach to existing planning effort• Science team: response to top variables

before workshop• Webinar: impacts/ adaptation 101• 2 days: (1) “certainties,” (2) “uncertainties”

and scenarios• All participants select final variables

Possible Next Site

• Smaller scale within Marin County:

Bolinas/ Stinson Beach (part of Our Coast- Our Future effort)

– Resource managers, public utilities– DPW– Office of Emergency Services

Thank you! Questions?

Sara S. Moore - sasmoore@ucsc.eduErika Zavaleta - zavaleta@ucsc.edu

UC Santa Cruz/ Zavaleta LabEnvironmental Studies Department

University of California

Red-Legged Frogs. John Sullivan/Ribbit Photography