BRAZIL: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
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Transcript of BRAZIL: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
BRAZIL: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
Gustavo [email protected]
2
Plan of presentation
Macroeconomic perspectives
Brazil in the financial crisis
3
Macroeconomic perspectives
Brazil in the financial crisis
4
Three main channels of contagion of international financial crisis into the country: Credit;
Exports and foreign trade;
Expectations and confidence.
Impacts on the domestic economy were both mild and short. Main reasons for these were: Strong fundamentals of Brazilian economy prior to the crisis;
Sound state of financial sector in Brazil;
Recent growth mainly spurred by domestic factors;
Countercyclical policies (fiscal and monetary).
Domestic ScenarioOverview
5
Credit – New bank loans (monthly averages, seasonally adjusted, constant values, R$ million)
Source: Brazilian Central Bank
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7
Ma
r-0
7
Ap
r-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Jun
-07
Jul-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Oct
-07
No
v-0
7
De
c-0
7
Jan
-08
Fe
b-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Jun
-08
Jul-0
8
Au
g-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Oct
-08
No
v-0
8
De
c-0
8
Jan
-09
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
r-0
9
Ap
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jun
-09
Jul-0
9
Au
g-0
9
45,000
47,000
49,000
51,000
53,000
55,000
57,000
59,000
Companies Individuals
Sep. 08
6
Industrial production (index, seasonally adjusted)
Source: IBGE (forecast Tendencias)
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Projection
Peak-to-through fall of 20.9% in 2008 Q4; Recovered 13.5% since then.% yoy: 2007: 6.0% 2008: 3.1% 2009(f): -8.7% 2010(f): 9.3%
7
Industrial production (index, seasonally adjusted)
Source: IBGE
Capital goods
110
130
150
170
190
210
Jan-
05
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
06
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
07
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
08
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
09
May
-
Durable consumption
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-
05
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
06
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
07
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
08
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
09
May
-
Intermediary goods
95
105
115
125
Jan-
05
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
06
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
07
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
08
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
09
May
-
Semi & Non Durable consumption
100
102.5
105
107.5
110
112.5
115
Jan-
05
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
06
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
07
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
08
May
-
Sep
-
Jan-
09
May
-
8
Domestic activity
Unemployment rate
6%
7%8%
9%10%
11%
12%13%
14%
Mar
-02
Sep
-02
Mar
-03
Sep
-03
Mar
-04
Sep
-04
Mar
-05
Sep
-05
Mar
-06
Sep
-06
Mar
-07
Sep
-07
Mar
-08
Sep
-08
Mar
-09
Source: IBGE
Spectacular fall since 2004, reaching lowest ever levels in
Dec 08.Reversal of downward trend in
early 2009.
Retail sales (index, seasonally adjusted)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Projection
% yoy: 2007: 9.7%2008: 9.1% 2009(f):
5.1% 2010(f): 7.0%
9
GDP growth (annual rates)
GDP Households Government Investment Exports ImportsYear/weight 100.0% 60.7% 20.2% 19.0% 14.3% 14.2%
2004 5.7% 3.8% 4.1% 9.1% 15.3% 13.3%2005 3.2% 4.5% 2.3% 3.6% 9.3% 8.5%2006 4.0% 5.2% 2.6% 9.8% 5.0% 18.4%2007 5.7% 6.3% 4.7% 13.5% 6.7% 20.8%2008 5.1% 5.4% 5.6% 13.8% -0.6% 18.5%2009 -0.1% 2.6% 2.9% -12.7% -10.5% -14.6%2010 4.8% 5.2% 5.1% 7.2% 6.5% 13.0%
Demand
Source: IBGE (forecast Tendencias)
Agriculture Industry Services TaxesYear/weight 6.7% 27.9% 65.3% 15.5%
2004 2.3% 7.9% 5.0% 6.4%2005 0.3% 2.1% 3.7% 4.4%2006 4.5% 2.3% 4.2% 5.7%2007 5.9% 4.7% 5.4% 8.4%2008 5.8% 4.3% 4.8% 7.4%2009 -2.3% -5.1% 3.6% -2.3%2010 3.9% 7.1% 4.6% 4.9%
Supply
10
Macroeconomic perspectives
Brazil in the financial crisis
11
Forecast for 2009-2010
Indicator 2009 2010
GDP Growth (%) (0.0) 4.8
Inflation (CPI) - % 4.2 4.2
Benchmark interest rate (Selic) - % 8.75 10.00
F/X (R$/US$) 1.75 1.70
Trade Balance (US$ bi) 15.6 25.0
Current Account (US$ bi) (18.7) (22.6)
12
Brazil outlook
Why does Brazil have good perspectives?
Reduced geopolitical as well as political risks (contrast with other Bric’s):
• Democratic institutions
• Market economy
• Absence of ethnic conflicts
• Pacific relations with neighbouring countries
Safeguard of macroeconomic stability:
• Law of Fiscal Responsibility
• Inflation targeting regime
• Floating exchange rate
• De facto Central Bank independence
Vast and increasing domestic market for consumption goods
13
Brazil outlook
Expanding credit markets:
• Credit to GDP ratio went from 30% in Dec 06 to 45% (currently)
Important regional player:
• 35% of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) GDP
• 33% of LAC population
• Diversified economy, sophisticated financial markets
Important producer of several commodities:
• Brazil is one of the largest world producer and exporter for: soya beans, corn, coffee, cotton, sugar, orange juice, cattle and veal, poultry, iron ore
Important player on different energy sources: biofuel (ethanol), oil (pre salt)
Big events: Football World Cup (2014), Summer Olympic Games (2016)
• Brazil will be in the spotlight
• Investment in infra-structure and services
14
Coming years will be good for Brazil.
Economic growth led by domestic sectors (consumption and
investment) based on employment growth, income and
credit.
Exchange rate keeps strong value due to the flow of
resources into Brazilian economy.
Risks: medium-term economic growth is constrained by
growth of potential GDP, which, in turn, is affected by (lack
of) investment in infrastructure, human capital, and micro
structural reforms (tax, labor, social security).
Summary
15
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