Brandon DL Marshall, PhD Department of Epidemiology Brown University
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Transcript of Brandon DL Marshall, PhD Department of Epidemiology Brown University
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A complex systems approach to evaluate HIV prevention in metropolitan areas: Preliminary
implications for combination intervention strategies
Brandon DL Marshall, PhDDepartment of Epidemiology
Brown University
Magdalena M Paczkowski & Sandro Galea, Columbia UniversityLars Seemann, University of Houston
Barbara Tempalski, Enrique Pouget, & Samuel R Friedman, NDRI Inc.
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Introduction & Conceptual FrameworkThe conceptual framework represents causal effects between two
phenomena – agent characteristics, behaviors & interventions, outputs – in the agent-based model (ABM):
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Transmission through an ABM risk network:
HM
HF
WSW
MSM
IDU
NIDU
NDU
Legend:
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Estimated HIV Prevalence/Incidence among IDU
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Conclusions
• The ABM closely approximated HIV prevalence and incidence among drug users in New York City, 1992-2002.
• Future work will identify optimal combinations of HIV prevention interventions for drug-using populations.
• Although not without challenges, complex systems approaches have the potential to inform “real world” policy scenarios, including combined HIV prevention strategies.
• Additional results will be presented in oral abstract late breaker session C, Friday July 27th at 11:00am in Session Room 6.
This project is funded in part by a 2012 developmental grant from the Lifespan/Tufts/Brown Center for AIDS Research (P30AI042853) and by the National Institutes of Health (R01-
DA013336) as part of the Community Vulnerability and Responses to Drug- User Related HIV/AIDS (CVAR) study. Brandon Marshall was supported by a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the
Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Lars Seemann is supported by the National Science Foundation (Award Number 0840889).