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© BP 2008
BP Statistical Reviewof World EnergyJune 2008
June 2008
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
Outline
Introduction
High Energy Prices
The Oil Market
Other Fuels
Conclusion
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
Energy Consumption and Energy Prices
y-o-y
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
98 00 02 04 06 080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
$/bbl
Oil Gas Coal
98 00 02 04 06 080
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
98 00 02 04 06 080
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
$/t$/Mmbtu
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Oil Wheat Iron & Steel Index: average 1970-2007 = 100
Real Commodity Prices
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
GDP and Primary Energy Growth
2001 2003 2005 2007
Primary energy GDP (PPP)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1967 1969 1971 1973
Growth1970s 2000s
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Contributions to Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
OECD Non-OECD
5-year moving average
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
OECD Non-OECD
Primary energyGDP
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Energy Growth Relative to GDP Growth
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
10-year average
OECD Non-OECD
Ratio of energy : GDP growth
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Real and Nominal Crude Oil Price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Nominal price Real price$/bbl
$ 104.91 per barrel in December 1979
$ 130.92 per barrel in June 2008
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-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-082.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
$/gallonKb/d
Pump price (rhs)
US Gasoline Consumption Growth
Source: EIA
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-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Oilexporters
Non-OECDoil
importers
OECD oilimporters
Heavysubsidies
Moderatesubsidies
Moderatetaxes
Heavytaxes
10-year average
Taxes and subsidies
Global Oil Consumption Growth
Kb/d
Exporters and importers
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2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2002-2006 range Stocks in 2007 Brent oil price (rhs)
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mbbls $/bbl
OECD Commercial Inventories
Sources: IEA, Platts
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World Oil Production Changes
OECD
OPEC-10
Other OPEC
FSU
ROW
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Growth Decline
Mb/d
OECD
OPEC-10
Other OPEC
FSUROW
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Growth Decline
Mb/d
Average annual change, 2003-2007 Change 2007
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Non-OPEC
FSU
OPEC
2007 Oil Production: Largest Changes
Kb/dDecrease Increase
Norway
Mexico
Venezuela
Nigeria
Canada
Sudan
Iraq
Russia
Azerbaijan
Angola
Saudi Arabia
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
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Russian Oil Production
Source: Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2001 2003 2005 2007
y-o-y growth
2005 2006 2007 2008
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
Mb/d
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2007 Refining Capacity Additions
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
World Av. 2002-2005
World 2007
N.America
S. & Cent. America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Africa
China
Asia Pacific ex China
Kb/d
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-300
-225
-150
-75
0
75
150
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
Financial Investment in Energy
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
WTI
Heating Oil
Henry Hub
Non-commercial net length
$/boe
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08
Open interest Energy prices
‘000 contracts Million contracts
Sources: CFTC, Platts
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-10 0 10 20 30 40
US
China
Qatar
Nigeria
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Russia
Canada
UK
Billion m3
2007 Natural Gas: Largest Changes
Production Consumption
Billion m3
-10 0 10 20 30 40
US
China
Russia
Japan
Turkey
Chile
Germany
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Algeria
Trinidad
Egypt
Nigeria
Qatar
Oman
Australia
Malaysia
UAE
Eq. Guinea
Indonesia
Norway
Brunei
2007 LNG Market Diversification
Source: Cedigaz
Number of export markets Number of suppliers
Atlantic BasinMiddle EastPacific Basin
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Japan
outh Korea
Taiwan
Spain
India
US
France
Turkey
UK
China
Mexico
Belgium
Greece
S
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-60 -40 -20 0 2075%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-6 -3 0 3 6
Gas competitiveness vs. resid ($/Mmbtu)
Gas Share US gas vs. oilUK gas vs. coal
Gas is not competitiveGas is
competitive Gas is not competitiveGas is
competitive
Fuel Switching in Power Generation 2005-07
Gas competitiveness vs. coal (€/MWh)
Sources: EIA, BERR, Platts, McCloskey, ECX
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17%60%
3%
1%
19%
2007 Coal Production and Consumption
20%
2%
5%
14%59%Europe& Eurasia
Consumption
S & Cent.America
Africa
North AmericaAsia Pacific
Europe& Eurasia
Production
S & Cent. America
Africa
North AmericaAsia Pacific
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Coal Production Outside China
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
US
Australia
India
South Africa
Russia
Indonesia
Mtoe
Biggest coal producers Largest production growth, 1998-2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Indonesia
Australia
IndiaRussia
South Africa
Colombia
Mtoe
12.3%
3.8%
3.7%
3.1%
2% 8.3%
Average annual growth
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GDP and Power Generation
Average growth p.a.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%GDP PowerPrimary energy Coal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GDP Power Coal
Share
China
OECD
Othernon-
OECD
India
Global breakdownGrowth in China, 2003-2007
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Power Generation and Primary Energy
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1991-2000 2001-2007
OECD Non-OECD
Average growth p.a.Power generation
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
PowerGeneration
PrimaryEnergy
GDP
10-year average
2007 global growth
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
World Europe FSU NorthAmerica
MiddleEast
S. &Cent.
America
Africa AsiaPacific
10-year averagey-o-y growth
2007 Carbon Emissions Growth
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
0
400
800
1200
1600
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Middle East S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Africa North America Asia Pacific Other oil sands
Billion bbls
Global Oil Reserves
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007
10-year average
Changes in Nuclear and Hydroelectric Output
Nuclear Hydroy-o-y growth
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008© BP 2008
Renewables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2003 2005 2007
HydroOther renewables
TWh
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2001 2003 2005 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
Share (lhs)
Kb/dShare
Ethanolconsumption (rhs)
Electricity generation in Germany Volume of ethanol in US gasoline
Sources: BDEW, EIA
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Conclusion
High economic growth and improvements in energy intensity
Importance of developing world
Oil market constrained, gas market integrating, global coal market emerging
Prices are effective, where allowed to work
© BP 2008
BP Statistical Reviewof World EnergyJune 2008
June 2008
