Bob Harvey from the GHP on the Economics of Houston
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Houston: The Next Great Global City Bob Harvey President and CEO Greater Houston Partnership
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Transcript of Bob Harvey from the GHP on the Economics of Houston
Houston: The Next Great Global City
Bob HarveyPresident and CEO
Greater Houston Partnership
Greater Houston PartnershipHouston’s Leading Business Organization
Public PolicyEconomic Development
+International Trade and
Investment
Regional Consensus Builder
GHP Service AreaTen County Houston Region
A shallow recession for Houston
-3.3%
-4.2% -4.5% -4.6%-5.1% -5.2%
-5.7%-6.2% -6.5%
-7.4%-7.8% -7.8% -7.8%
-8.2%
-9.7%-10.2%
-11.2%
-12.4%-12.9% -13.2%
DC
Bost
on
Hou
ston
New
Yor
k
Dal
las
Phila
delp
hia
Balti
mor
e
St. L
ouis
Min
neap
olis
Chic
ago
San
Die
go
Seatt
le
Atla
nta
San
Fran
cisc
o
Los
Ang
eles
Mia
mi
Tam
pa
Rive
rsid
e
Phoe
nix
Hou
ston
'82-
'87
* Excludes Detroit
% Jobs Lost During Recession20 Largest U.S. Metro Areas*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan '042/043/044/045/046/047/048/049/0410/0411/0412/04Jan '052/053/054/055/056/057/058/059/0510/0511/0512/05Jan '062/063/064/065/066/067/068/069/0610/0611/0612/06Jan '072/073/074/075/076/077/078/079/0710/0711/0712.07Jan '082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08Jan '092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09Jan '102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10Jan '112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11Jan '122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12Jan '132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13Jan '142.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Empl
oym
ent
(Mill
ions
)
Steady job growth
306,100 = jobs created since
recession botto
m
Total Nonfarm Payroll (Not Seasonally Adjusted)Houston Metro Area, '04 - '14
Outpacing the nation
39.1%
41.5%
45.5%
66.5%
70.8%
73.5%
97.5%
125.3%
143.8%
161.2%
203.9%
Los Angeles
Miami
Philadelphia
Chicago
San Francisco
Atlanta
New York
Boston
Washington
Dallas
Houston
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsSeasonally unadjusted
100%
Percent of jobs recovered through August ’13Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Key Economic Indicators
'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '14150
200
250
300
350
400
Vehicle Sales (000s) 12-Month Total, Metro Houston
Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation
'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '1440
50
60
70
80
90
100
Home Sales (000s)12-Month Total, Metro Houston
Source: Houston Association of REALTORS®
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*250
300
350
400
450
500
Sales Tax Collections ($ Millions) City of Houston, ’04 Constant Dollars
Source: Texas State Comptroller * Projected
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Value of Building Permits ($ Millions) Metro Houston
Source: City of Houston * Projected
Key Economic Indicators - Energy
'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
U.S. Rig Count Monthly Average
Source: Baker Hughes
'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140160
Spot Price, West Texas IntermediateMonthly Average, $/BBL
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*0
100200300400500600700800
Texas Crude Oil Production Barrels (000s)
Source: Texas Railroad Commission * Projected
'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Spot Price, Henry Hub Natural GasMonthly Average, $/BBL
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Employment Trends
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Source: GHP calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data
12-Month Growth Rate
Mining and Manufacturing Secondary Sectors
Metro Houston Employment (000s)
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
-10.4
17.7
43.452.9 51.8 52.4
105.290.8
17.4
59.0
3.6
-3.2-11.4
37.5
89.2
105.8
88.8
19.5
-107.4
47.4
81.2
105.7
80.7 76.0
Aug
ust
'12
- Aug
ust
'13
GH
P Fo
reca
st fo
r '13
Average = 42.6
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Above average job growth
Houston: The Next Great Global City
• Education
• Transportation Infrastructure
• Quality of Life Issues
• Local Government Issues
• Healthcare Access and Affordability
• Economic Drivers Beyond Energy
• The New Face of Houston
Seven Emerging Themes
Houston: The Next Great Global City
Bob HarveyPresident and CEO
Greater Houston Partnership
