Bo DiczfalusySenior adviser, Nordic Energy Research

•We are the platform for cooperative energy research and policy development under the Nordic Council of Ministers – the intergovernmental body between Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.

•We fund R&D to promote a sustainable future

•We contribute to policy-making

What we do

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives (NETP)

• NETP presents a detailed scenario-based analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon neutral energy system by 2050.

• The report is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (ETP).

Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions

In October 2018, two years after the publication of the NETP, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. IPCC stresses that:

•The world needs to limit climate change to 1.5°C to reduce the likelihood of extreme weather events. •Emissions need to be curbed with far more urgency than previously anticipated.

The analysis in NETP 2016 is based on a scenario where Nordic energy-related CO2 emissions fall by 85% by 2050, named the “Carbon Neutral Scenario” (CNS).

Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions

“The aim of the Nordic countries is to be carbon neutral and to demonstrate leadership in the fight against global warming.”

These were the words of the Nordic prime ministers in their declaration at a summit in Helsinki on 25 January 2019 as part of

active Nordic climate cooperation under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers.

CO2 emissions in NETP scenarios

0%

25%

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125%

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical Scenarios

Nordic

4DS

Global

4DS

CNS

CNS

Fig 1.1: Reduction pathways for energy-related CO2 by scenario (indexed to 1990)

This publication evaluates the progress being made towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality and compares progress with the Carbon Neutral Scenario (CNS) in NETP 2016. The NETP publication and this publication deal with energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for just under two-thirds of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Nordic region.

Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps

Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed

Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT

ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

GREEN MOBILITY

THE BIG PICTURE

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress

25-10-2019 9

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Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden

Share of renewables has increased

All five Nordic countries have seen significant increases in the utilisation of renewable energy.

Compared to primary energy demand, the overall renewable share at Nordic level has risen from 29% in 2006 to 39% in 2016.

Increasing use of bioenergy is the main reason behind the upwards trend.

10%In Nordic RE

share from 2006-2016

→

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

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Wind power generation is almost haft-way to the CNS

2030 target of75 TWh

Geothermal is 1 TWhfrom CNS 2050 target of

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

Nordic renewable electricity generation (excl. hydro)

Solar already close to CNS 2030 target

of 1 TWh

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CO2 emissions (MtCO2) from power and district heatTRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

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BOOSTING BIOENERGY

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2050

Net electricity import

Biomass and waste

Wind, geothermal and solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

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in primary energy

consumption

Bioenergy production is increasing and is expected to be the single largest energy carrier in 2050.

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

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Other RE

Bio-ethanol/-ETBE

Bio-diesel

RE electricity

Over 100% increase in RE

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Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.

Securing sustainable production of biofuels is still a challenge.

> 80%biofuels

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

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Electric Plug-in electric Fuel cell

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Nordic statistics CNS

Light-duty vehicles are on track

Share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle stock (CNS) and “zoom in” on the actual Nordic share from 2010-2018 in relation to CNS targets

1%

4.1%

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

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Norway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark

2018

Over 100.000 electric vehicles were sold in 2018

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Battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles share of new passenger vehicle sales. Piechart: Number of new passenger vehicle sales (BEV and PHEV) in 2018

ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT

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Other generation

Bio fuels

Geothermal

Electric boilers and heat pumps

Surplus heat

Waste

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Nordic district heat generation (PJ) by fuel

Steady decline in use of fossil fuels for heat production

use of fossil fuels for heat

production

34 %

→

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry

Fig 7.3: Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry

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PJ

Fossil fuels Biomass Waste Derived heat Electricity

in final energy consumption in industry from 2007-2016

1495 PJ in 2007

1342 PJ in 2017

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24%

→

In fossil fuels from 2007-2016

KEY MESSAGE: We have most of the tools but there is still a long way to go

With Nordic urban areas expected to grow at twice the rate of previous decades, an opportunity exists to transition to efficient low-carbon systems. Building codes continue to be an important tool for the green transition. However, the low turnover of the building stock means that emphasis should also be given to retrofitting older buildings. Fossil fuels only play a marginal role in today’s Nordic heat supply. Yet efficiency gains may provide multiple benefits for the green transition and hold significant economic potential. Improving building efficiency can unlock biomass to substitute fossil fuels in transport, avoid grid infrastructure investments, facilitate electricity exports, and enable deployment of new technologies such as low-temperature district heating/cooling.

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CNS 2050

Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Cooking Appliances Other

Final energy consumption in Nordic buildings (PJ)

We need to cut the energy intensity of Nordic buildings by more than half. kWh/m2 in 2016

213

kWh/m2 in 2050

89

Average energy intensity in Nordic buildings

Ålesund, Norway

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

Carbon Capture and Storage in Industry

24%

→

Nordic industrial emissions in 2050

Total20 Mt CO2

Captured7 Mt CO2

Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps

Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed

Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT

ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

GREEN MOBILITY

THE BIG PICTURE

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress