POLICY MEMO

TO: Sara El-Amine, Executive Director, Organizing for ActionFROM: Erin TolmanRE: Low Voter Turnout in NYC Local ElectionsDATE:  7 December 2015

"The people who tend not to vote are young, they're lower income, they're skewed more heavily towards immigrant groups and minority groups… It would be transformative if everybody voted -- that would counteract money more than anything." President Barack Obama, 19th March 20151.

On September 17, we commemorate Constitution Day in America. As we sing the praises of our storied past, and celebrate our citizenship, one can’t help but wonder -- with the pomp and circumstance with which we collectively celebrate our rights as Americans, and the reverence with which we speak of our founding document, why then, come election day, do so many not participate in the electoral process? If representation in government was so valuable that our founding fathers pledged their lives, their fortune, and their sacred honor to pursue it, why do barely half of eligible Americans even bother turning up to the polls for national elections?

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Voting – the physical act of democracy – is concurrently one of the most important and most complicated aspects of a democratic system. In Australia, and 26 other countries, it is compulsory3. In the United States, we struggle with some of the lowest participation rates in the developed world – not even 58% of eligible voters voted in the 2012 elections4. Across the political spectrum, low voter participation is derided as a problem. The problem of low voter turnout in many communities dovetails with the sister problems of poverty, minority populations, and felony rates5.

Who Isn’t Voting?6

While it is can seem philosophically appalling to not vote for President, some data suggests that, were turnout 100%, the outcomes of national elections would not likely be changed significantly78. But where a presidential race is a complicated game of counting to 270, city council elections can be decided by single votes. Therefore, shouldn’t turnout matter more in local races?

The voter participation in the general elections has, interestingly, has never been as high as participation in mayoral elections in large cities. In 1954, 92% of New Yorkers showed up to vote for mayor. In 2013, only a quarter of the voting population turned out9. The political machines that could operate to mobilize populations in the mid-century are now defunct, and the current low rates of participation have resulted. And as our urban centers become even more diverse, it is even more important to have turnout keep pace.

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Low voter participation is not equal across different demographics11. Consider, for example, that Latinos accounted for 2% of Utah’s voting population in 2008, yet were 12% of the electorate12. Were they to vote in more representative numbers, it would have had no impact on Utah’s electoral college votes, but it could have been an extraordinary shift in the political dialogue at the local level13. Issues such as traffic stops to check immigration status would be a different debate were the Salt Lake County Sheriff considering the previously unaccounted for 10% Latino vote14.

In an era where political participation is low and apathy is high, it would seem counterintuitive to make it harder for people to register and cast a ballot. Historically, in off-cycle elections, the demographic that tends to vote most is whiter, wealthier, and older than the average citizen15. While this is still a powerful voting demographic in general elections, it holds more than its fair sway over local races16. Having local elections in off-years is a holdover from the Progressive era of the early 20th century17 that has outlived its usefulness -- ostensibly keeping the politicians from having to compete for the stage with state and national elections. But less idealistically, it was also a way to keep immigrant, minority, and poor populations from participating18, much like much like the voting restrictions of recent years.

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Voter ID laws, restricting polling station hours of operation, absentee ballot restrictions – these target the young, the old, the poor19. Furthermore, felony – or in some states, misdemeanor – voting restrictions, coupled with mandatory minimums for drug laws and a judicial system where the odds are never in their favor, have succeeded in disenfranchising nearly six million people, disproportionately African-American or Hispanic2021. And in these communities, disenfranchisement creates a ripple effect of low participation, even among eligible voters. Consider that, among the 40 largest major metropolitan areas in the country, half have a white population below 60%22. There is considerable electoral advantage to be gained by limiting the voting access of minority populations23 – a trend that has been called the New Jim Crow24. Holding municipal elections off-cycle was, in part, the old Jim Crow.

SOLUTIONS TO INCREASING VOTER PARTICIPATION

There are a number of complex reasons for the low turnout in New York City elections, which can be categorized as legal issues, civic issues, and turnout issues.

1. REMOVE LEGAL ROADBLOCKS

Some states and municipalities have begun, in recent years, to restrict voter participation under the guise of preserving the integrity of the ballot box. In reality, voter fraud is very, very low - low enough to be a statistical non-entity25. So while the new voter ID laws have not affected the non-problem of voter fraud, it has made it much harder for some people to vote: minorities, the elderly, the young, the disabled, the poor26. New York City has not seen a push for restrictions as was the case in Ohio, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc. - but that is likely because many of these restrictions are already in place, and have been for some time. These laws may have once served the purposes of the political machines that put them in place, but those are outdated, impotent shells of their former selves. Examples of these laws include27:

Restrictive early voting and vote by mail No same-day voter registration Closed primaries, coupled with- One year waiting period to change party affiliation

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All of these serve to keep a certain type of voter away from the polls: basically, anybody who has time restrictions (working two jobs, or away at school, or childcare issues), mobility restrictions (disabled, ill, or elderly people), or literacy issues (early voting and vote by mail increases the likelihood that somebody who cannot read English can find a translator, or somebody with vision impairment can get aid with the ballot). Closed primaries also restricts the ballot access to only the most conscientious strata of voter - which again, is older, whiter, and richer than most of their fellow citizens28.

Without the political machines of the past now shells of their former selves, Tammany Hall-style legal roadblocks are outdated, counter-productive, and has the deleterious effect of creating widespread voter apathy - the system is unfriendly, intimidating, and unwillingly to accommodate basic facts of a modern lifestyle. In an age where we have nearly everything at our electronic fingertips, restrictions such as these serve only to further alienate the young, and disenfranchise other already-marginalized populations that the elected officials are purporting to serve. These restrictions should be eliminated, and the voter access laws be made among the most accessible in the country. NYC should set the standard, in the way that it does in so many other avenues, and hold itself as a paradigm for the country to follow.

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2. ADDRESS CIVIC STRUCTURAL DISTANCE

In addition to voting legalities, there are several New York City specific civic structures that could be modified to increase voter participation. Local municipal governing institutions are designed to in such a way that voter apathy is increased. Voters feel distanced from their governing bodies and as such do not feel their voice “matters”. Severely gerrymandered districts, community boards that do not stand for election, and overly-large state assembly districts are three such instances where even a politically engaged voter might feel it not worth their time to vote.

One example of gerrymandering is Richmond Hill, a predominantly South-Asian community in Queens30.  Despite their population, the South Asian community lacks representation at any level in city or state government.  The population has grown dramatically in the past decade (from 2000 to 2010, Queens’ Asian population has increased by 30.6 percent31), yet the district boundaries do not reflect this. The Census Bureau shows that Indian American residents skyrocketed 77 percent in Manhattan to reach 25,857, and in the city overall there are now 192,209 people who identify as Asian Indian32. In 2010, community leaders in Queens lobbied the City Council to consider this when drawing district boundaries, “in order that Bayside, Richmond Hill and South Ozone Park be grouped together as a one election district in order to represent the interests of the community”33. This is a clear example of an interested and engaged electorate. But their efforts were met with a backlash from the older, white residents (the ones who are most likely to be registered and vote in primaries34), and the Asian community groups were unsuccessful in getting the boundaries redrawn to be more representative of their community. Instead, the Richmond Hill community was split between two City Council districts, and five State Assembly districts35, ensuring no voting bloc to support candidates, and all but guaranteeing further disenfranchisement.

Other Asian communities in Queens have faced similar challenges, provocatively demonstrating the effects of low voter turnout on a marginalized population.  A very recent example was the open (without an incumbent) primary for District 23, held on September 10 of this year36. A South Asian candidate ran and lost. The winner, Barry Grodenchik, won by a mere 300 votes37. Only 7000 people turned out, a dismal 10% of registered voters - but this number does not tell the whole story, as only about half of those voters are registered Democrats, eligible to vote in the primary at all38.

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Redistricting boundaries to better reflect natural community boundaries, and opening primaries to all voters might have a profound impact of not only the numbers that turn out to vote, but the face of the representation itself.

Salt Lake City: A voting reform success story

While it might seem counterintuitive to compare Salt Lake City and New York City given their obvious differences, there are a few compelling similarities. Both struggled with low voter participation and voter apathy; both are considered electoral “locks”; and both have underserved demographics: Salt Lake City has the 7th largest LGBTQ percentage in the country.

New York Voting Stats 39 - In 2014, New York State was 49th in voter participation of 28.8%. (National participation was 36.6%, lowest since 1942.) - 3.8 out of 11 million active voters - 2013 New York City municipal election saw a historic low of 24%

Salt Lake City Voting Stats 40 - In the 2014 election, Utah tied with New York for 49th in voter turnout - 2015 election: All active voters were mailed a ballot - Also instituted same day voter registration - Expected 2015 turnout is 60% (up from 19% in 2011)

After instituting these voting reforms for the 2015 election, Salt Lake City now has41: - An openly gay mayor- Two openly gay city council members - Salt Lake County had a transgender candidate who garnered 42% of the vote in the suburbs – (approximating the 45% of the population that is registered Democrat)

There is an obvious corollary between increasing turnout, and increased representation of underserved demographics. The comparison is also usefully when discussing the possibility of change with national issues: These reforms were instituted in one of the most conservative states in the country, which gives hope that change is desired across party lines.

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3. INCREASE TURNOUT EFFORTS WITH NATIONAL ISSUES

Low voter turnout is a national problem. The most recent midterm elections set a record for the lowest in more than seven decades42. New York City’s problem can be addressed at the local level to some extent - but will only go so far to stem the tide of voter apathy. Voting has a PR problem, and it may take dramatic measures to draw voters’ attention and convince them that their vote does, in fact, matter. One way to increase participation among marginalized populations is to remove felony restrictions of voting rights. Another is to abolish the Electoral College.

REMOVE FELONY RESTRICTIONS ON VOTING

It can be debated whether one surrenders citizenship when one violates the social contract by breaking a law - but what is not debatable are the facts surrounding the conviction rates for minorities and the racial bias of the judicial system, particularly with regard to drug laws43. There is much historical precedence for felony convictions being used to keep former slaves from the ballot box44 - and as anachronistic as it sounds, these laws not only remain, but have evolved to incorporate new problems (i.e. addressing the drug trade). A city like New York has a large minority population, which faces higher incarceration rates, permanently barring them from voting, and the disenfranchisement carries over into the communities. People with members of their household who do not vote are less likely to vote. Disenfranchisement has a ripple effect45, creating legions of voters who do not vote - the precise population that most needs to be heard.

ABOLISH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

New York City has much to gain from supporting efforts to abolish the Electoral College. Electorally speaking, New York State is a lock for the Democrats. Presidential candidates swing through for fundraisers and move on to battleground states - making campaign promises to Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Virginia, and ignoring all other states and essentially four out of five American voters46. New York is as irrelevant on the national stage as Utah (a lock for the Republican party). And voters know this - it translates into apathy. But consider the impact of being able to say, to every registered voter in the city - Yes, it does matter. The trickle-down effect of having a campaign directed at them47, at their issues, would impact all the campaigns further down the ticket. A report by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement

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(CIRCLE) found that turnout among eligible voters under age 30 was 64.4% in the 10 closest battleground states and only 47.6% in the rest of the country—a 17% gap in participation48 because they are essentially ignored.

It is not as unrealistic a measure as might be assumed, and in effect can be done without a constitutional amendment. Since the Constitution leaves it up to the state legislatures to decide how electors are allocated, a Constitutional amendment would not be required.

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors . . ." - U.S. Constitution

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) has been passed by 11 jurisdictions possessing 165 electoral votes - 61% of the 270 needed to enact it49. Furthermore, its support ranges from electorates as diverse as California and Vermont, and includes New York State with bipartisan support50.

States that have passed the National Popular Vote Compact

This compact would ensure that the Electoral College followed the popular vote, by having each state’s electors vote with the nation’s vote, rather than determining the President with the complicated math of counting to 270 that exists today. The compact is not in force until enough state legislatures have passed the compact to reach a critical majority of electors.

Call to Action: What Organizing for America Can Do

What is needed from OFA is the push to put this on the national agenda, and to mobilize their considerable local networks already in place across the country in support of these efforts. OFA has been the machine that organized electoral victory for Obama, beginning at the local level. It shifted to the national stage when he did. Perhaps it is time to now turn back, and again take a look and the impact that can be had by increasing turnout of disenfranchised demographics in local elections.

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Notes

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1 C-SPAN (2015, March 18). President Obama on Middle Class Economics (Clip) [Video File]. Retrieved from http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4558589/pres-obama-cleveland-club-remarks

2 Turnout of U.S. Voting Eligible Population, 1948-2012. (n.d.) Voter Turnout. Retrieved from http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/voter-turnout/

3 Central Intelligence Agency (n.d.). World Factbook: Suffrage. Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/fields/print_2123.html

4 Turnout of U.S. Voting Eligible Population, 1948-2012.

5 Pew Research Center. (2014, October) Wide Demographic Divides Between Nonvoters and Likely Voters. The Party of Non-Voters. Retrieved from http://www.people-press.org/2014/10/31/the-party-of-nonvoters-2/

6 Pew Research Center. (2014, October) Wide Demographic Divides Between Nonvoters and Likely Voters. The Party of Non-Voters. Retrieved from http://www.people-press.org/2014/10/31/the-party-of-nonvoters-2/

7 Hajnal

8 Bump, P. (March 19, 2015). What the 2012 election could have looked like with 100 percent turnout. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/19/what-the-2012-election-could-have-looked-like-with-100-percent-turnout/

9 Maciag M. (October 2014). Voter Turnout Plummeting in Local Elections. Retrieved from http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-voter-turnout-municipal-elections.html#graph

10 Kincaid, J. (2014, June 13) Voter Turnout Lags in America’s 22 Major Cities. Retrieved from http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/voter-turnout-lags-in-americas-22-largest-cities/

11 Pew Research Center

12 Davidson, L. (Aug. 26 2010). Low Latino voting in Utah may leave them politically vulnerable. Deseret News. Retrieved from http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700060594/Low-Latino-voting-in-Utah-may-leave-them-politically-vulnerable.html?pg=all

13 Haijnal

14 Davidson

15 Pew Research Center

16 Haijnal

17 Anzia, S. (May 31, 2011). Partisan Power Play: The Origins of Local Election Timing as an American Political Institution [thesis draft]. Stanford University. Retrieved from https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Anzia_Partisan_Power_Play_5_31_11.pdf

18 Anzia

19 Cohen, A. (March 16, 2012). How Voter ID Laws Are Being Used to Disenfranchise Minorities and the Poor. The Atlantic Magazine. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/03/how-voter-id-laws-are-being-used-to-disenfranchise-minorities-and-the-poor/254572/

20 The Drug Policy Alliance (2013). The Drug War, Mass Incarceration, and Race. Retrieved from http://www.drugpolicy.org

21 The Racist Origins of Felony Disenfranchisement (November 19, 2014). The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/opinion/the-racist-origins-of-felon-disenfranchisement.html

22 Simes, R., (2012, November 12). Cities won the election for President Obama. Urban Cincy. Retrieved from http://www.urbancincy.com/2012/11/cities-won-the-2012-election-for-president-obama/

23 Gonzalez, J. (April 15, 2012). New State Voting Laws: A Barrier to the Latino Vote? Social Science Research Network. Retrieved from http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2060460

24 Alexander, M., (2010, February). The New Jim Crow. LA Progressive. Retrieved from http://www.laprogressive.com/jim-crow/

25 Roberts, C., Robert, S., (2013, October 4). The voter-fraud fraud. PhillyBurbs. Retrieved from http://www.phillyburbs.com/00redesign/opinion/op-ed/the-voter-fraud-fraud/article_d3af19d8-1d31-59d7-b516-db4dbaedd3d0.html

26 Bump, P. (October 13, 2014). The disconnect between voter ID laws and voter fraud. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/13/the-disconnect-between-voter-id-laws-and-voter-fraud/

27 New York State Board of Elections (n.d.). Voting Information. Retrieved from http://www.elections.ny.gov/VotingRegister.html

28 NYC Turnout by Ethnicity, 2009 & 2012. (2012). New York City Election Atlas. Retrieved from http://www.nycelectionatlas.com/maps.html

29 Jahr, N. (2014, November 13) Voter Turnout in New York State and New York City. Forty Years of Freefall in New York Voter Turnout. Retrieved from http://www.gothamgazette.com/index.php/government/5432-forty-years-of-freefall-in-new-york-voter-turnout

30 In Queens, Advocates Say Council Districts Split Asian Vote (August 31, 2012). Voices of New York. http://voicesofny.org/2012/08/in-queens-advocates-say-council-districts-split-asian-vote/

31 Voices of New York

32 Kramer, S. (May 24, 2011). NYS Has No South Asian Elected Officials. Why?. WNYC. Retrieved from http://www.wnyc.org/story/135427-why-no-south-asian-elected-official-nys/

33 Voices of New York

34 Voices of New York

35 Voices of New York

36 Barkan, R. & Bredderman, W. (September 10, 2015). Barry Grodenchik Wins Tight Primary for Eastern Queens City Council Seat. New York Observer. Retrieved from http://observer.com/2015/09/barry-grodenchik-wins-tight-primary-for-eastern-queens-city-council-seat/

37 Barkan

38 Barkan

39 New York: Voter Turnout Appears to be Record Low. (2013, November 6). New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/news/election-2013/2013/11/06/new-york-turnout-appears-headed-for-record-low/

40 Crow, N. (2015 October 28). Does Vote By Mail Help or Hurt the Election Process?. KSL News.com. Retrieved from http://www.good4utah.com/news/local-news/does-vote-by-mail-help-or-hurt-the-election-process

41 Salt Lake County Election Results (Unofficial). (2015, November 3). Salt Lake County Recorder’s Office. Retrieved from http://www.slcgov.com/elections

42 The Worst Voter Turnout in 72 Years

43 The Drug Policy Alliance

44 The Racist Origins of Felony Disenfranchisement

45 Wood, E. (April 20, 2008). What If 5.3 More Americans Could Vote? Retrieved fromhttp://www.alternet.org/story/82457/what_if_5.3_million_more_americans_could_vote

46 Four Out of Five American Were Ignored in 2012 Presidential Election. (2013, January). National Popular Vote.com. Retrieved from http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages/misc/4-of-5-ignored-in-2012.php

47 Lopez, M.; Kirby, E.; Sagoff, J. (July 2005). The Youth Vote. Retrieved from http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

48 Lopez

49 61% of the Way to Activating the National Popular Vote Bill (April 16, 2014). National Popular Vote. Retrieved from http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/pages/misc/status.php

50 Hertzberg, H. (APRIL 16, 2014). National Popular Vote: New York State Climbs Aboard. The New Yorker. Retrieved from http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/national-popular-vote-new-york-state-climbs-aboard