Blasi alessandro iea
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© OECD/IEA 2011 A Glimpse into Energy Trends Alessandro Blasi Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Agency Rome, 18 April 2012
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Transcript of Blasi alessandro iea
© OECD/IEA 2011
A Glimpse into Energy Trends
Alessandro BlasiOffice of the Chief EconomistInternational Energy Agency
Rome, 18 April 2012
© OECD/IEA 2011
The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends
Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited
the means of intervention
Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans
CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
© OECD/IEA 2011
Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand
Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
China
India
Other developing Asia
Russia
Middle East
Rest of world
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2011
Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
Additional to 2035
2010
World primary energy demand
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA 2011
Energy efficiency is crucial for energy security, climate change and … our pockets
Annual change in global energy intensity for selected periods
Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009 2010
© OECD/IEA 2011
Efficiency improvements in transport sector limit oil demand growth
World PLDV oil demand in the New Policies Scenario
Oil use by cars expands by only 15% between 2010 & 2035, with more efficient vehicles, less usage & switching to non-oil fuels offsetting most of the impact of a doubling of the fleet
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2010 2035
mb/
d Oil demand
Fleet expansion
Decrease 2010-2035 due to:
Lower average vehicle usage
Improvement in fuel economy
Use of alternative fuels
Increase 2010-2035 due to:
© OECD/IEA 2011
Changing oil import needs are set toshift concerns about oil security
Net imports of oil
US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
China India EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan
mb/
d
2000
2010
2035
© OECD/IEA 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2008 2009 2010 2011
EUR b
illio
n
GasOil
3.1%
2.2%
2.7%
3.3%
EU’s oil and gas import bills recorded historical high
EU’s net import bills
% Share of GDP
Debt of Greekgovernment (end of 2011)
EU spending on imports was almost two-thirds higher in 2011 than 2009 as a result of higher international oil prices & oil-indexed gas prices
© OECD/IEA 2011
Efficiency gains can contribute most to EU emissions reductions
Energy efficiency measures – driven by strong policy action across all sectors – account for 50% of the cumulative CO2 abatement over the Outlook period
European Union energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario
Abatement 2020 2035
Efficiency 68% 48%Renewables 25% 21%Biofuels 2% 6%Nuclear 1% 11%CCS 3% 14%Total (Mt CO2) 269 1032
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
New PoliciesScenario
450 Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2011
Why energy efficiency does matter: country case study - Russia
The current international market value of the primary resources that could be saved by deploying more efficient energy technologies is about $70 billion
Energy savings from raising efficiency to comparable OECD levels, 2008
- 100 0 100 200 300 400
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Gas flaring
Indirect savings
Other energy sector
Electricity and heat
Fina
l con
sum
ption
Mtoe
Energy consumption
Potential savings
© OECD/IEA 2011
Overview of WEO-2012
A full update of energy projections by country, fuel & sector, to 2035
Objective & comprehensive analysis of topical issues Fuel focus: energy efficiency – how to unlock the potential climate impact on energy trends energy-water nexus indicators to track energy access
In addition, 2 special reports 29 May: the role of best practices (“Golden Rules”) for
a Golden Age of Gas Early October: first-ever in-depth outlook for Iraq
(also included in full WEO) Full WEO-2012 launch on 12 November
