BIOMASS FUTURES: Food, Fuel and the Environment: The implications for land use in Europe and beyond...

BIOMASS FUTURES:Food, Fuel and the Environment: The implications for land use in Europe and beyondBen Allen and Hannah LeeInstitute for European Environmental Policy

EIE/08/ 653/ June 2009- December 2011

Overview

• Finite nature of land• How land is used• Food production drivers• Biomass production drivers• Agriculture• Increased agricultural output• Land use consequences• Indirect Land Use Change• Conclusions• Ways forwards

2June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653

30/4/2010

June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

The finite nature of landChanged, developed, eroded but rarely created

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The finite nature of land• Physical presence (total area of land)• Constrained use (accessible area of land)

– Economic– Topographical– Geo-political– Climatic– Environmental

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Land cover of the EU

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Simple land use map

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Forest

AgriculturalCrop

AgriculturalCrop

AgriculturalPasture

Forest

UrbanUrban

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Mar

gina

l/Id

le

Mar

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l/Id

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Water


Simple land use map

• Increased Urbanisation

• Increased forest cover

• Maintained agricultural area

• Decreased semi-natural

• Increased use of marginal/idle land

• Decreased space for ecosystem services

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Forest

AgriculturalCrop

AgriculturalPasture

ForestSem

i-n

atu

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AgriculturalCrop

UrbanUrban

Water


Simple land use map

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Forest

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• Increased Urbanisation

• Increased forest cover

• Maintained agricultural area

• Decreased semi-natural

• Increased use of marginal/idle land

• Decreased space for ecosystem services


Future food production drivers 2010 - 2050• Population increase to 9bn• Changing diets (more meat & cereals)• > 1/3 of world grain fed to livestock (70% in some countries)• Food production demands up 50%+

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• Better supply chains, reduced waste, still need increased production.

• EU’s role?


Bioenergy production drivers 2010 - 2020•2009/28/EC (RED)•↑ renewable transport fuels 10% (soya/rape/maize = 92%)•↑ renewable energy 20% (2-3x ↑ from agriculture and forestry)

Biomass contribution•Transport - 23Mtoe (increase of 16.6Mtoe)•Energy - 150Mtoe 2010 to ~230Mtoe 2020

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Agriculture

1961 – 2007 • Global population increased 110%• Global agricultural area increased 11%

– Industrial countries – 3%– Developing countries + 21%

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1990 – 2010 EU• EU agricultural area (+/- 3%)• EU crop yields increased by 29%

Source: OECD Agricultural Outlook 2010 – 2019)

Industrialised countries• Knowledge, Science & Technology• Increased yields

Developing countries• Expanded agricultural area• Some increase in mechanisation


Increased agricultural output

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Crop \ Countries EU Least Developed CountriesCereals 5,052 1,463Coarse Grains 4,780 1,040Primary Oil crops 872 248Pulses 2,250 654

More food, more fuel: what can we do in ten years?

Increased yields• New crop varieties > 10years• Inputs more costly• Climatic variation• Resource constraints (water, phosphate, land, labour)

Increased area• Net Land Balances suggest area is available 1.56bn ha (1.4bn

ha currently)• Land largely outside the EU and in low production areas• Competing land uses (urbanisation, forestry)


Increased agricultural output

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Land use consequencesShort to medium term (to 2020)•Questions over available land or how to produce•Technologies such as GM are not online yet•Intensification/precision more likely•Expansion of area definite

Medium to long term (2020+)•New technologies/varieties may come online•Many still likely to be reliant on inputs•Yield requirements mean probable need for expansion of area for production to become sustainable but from where?•Increased food and fuel efficiency EU•Currently the largest importer of biofuels, and second largest importer of food, small area of available land.

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Land use consequences

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Forest

AgriculturalCrop

AgriculturalPasture

ForestSem

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AgriculturalCrop

UrbanUrban

Water


Global footprint

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Forest

AgriculturalCrop

AgriculturalPasture

ForestSem

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AgriculturalCrop

UrbanUrban

Water


The ILUC debate• Highly likely to see direct and indirect land use changes

from food and biofuel demands• ILUC not just from biofuels

In the biofuel context• Modeling exercises indicate: emissions may be substantial. • Large uncertainty across studies• IEEP study (NREAPs and model studies) shows biofuels

performing substantially worse than fossil fuels in terms of GHG emissions.

• NREAPs: MS rely to a large extent on first-generation biofuels further adding to the pressure on land

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Conclusions

• EU focused policies, global impact• Land is finite and faces increasing demands• Up to 2020, demands for food and fuel are

unlikely to be met through technology and yields. Expansion of area is likely

• Land use consequences are inevitable and felt strongest on low economic value land

• Land Use Change is not just a biofuels debate

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Ways forwards

• Increased efficiency in food and fuel supply and investigate the potential of advanced, waste-based biofuels

• Join together thinking on sustainable land based production for food, fuel, and the environment

• Expand thinking across other land uses to truly understand the global impacts and solutions to managing and using land for an increasing population.

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Thank you

www.ieep.eu

IEEP is an independent not for profit institute dedicated to advancing an environmentally sustainable Europe through

policy analysis, development and dissemination.

[email protected]

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BIOMASS FUTURES: Food, Fuel and the Environment: The implications for land use in Europe and beyond...

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