Bioenergy in AsiaAn FAO Perspective

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Beau Damen

What is bioenergy?

FAO definition

.....all energy derived from biofuels, which are fuels derived from biomass.

Bioenergy is....

Primary Solid

BiomassBiogas Liquid

biofuelsMunicipal

waste

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Con

trib

utio

n to

TPE

S

North America

European Union(27) + 3

Australia, Japan,New Zealand

East Asia andPacific

Europe and CentralAsia

Latin America andCaribbean

Middle East andNorth Africa

South Asia

Africa

World

World bioenergy outlook

Share of bioenergy to remain stable

Projected contribution of bioenergy to TPES by region, 2005 - 2030

Source: World Bank, 2010

Most common form of bioenergy

...is traditional burning of biomass

Contribution of biomass to global primary and consumer energy supplies, 2007

Source: Best et al, 2008

Changes in composition

...expected in the future

Outlook for bioenergy production by type, 2005 - 2030

Source: World Bank, 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Prim

ary

ener

gy su

pply

in M

TO

E

Biodiesel

Ethanol

Biogas

Primary solidbiomass (heat,power and ownuse)

Primary solidbiomass(traditional)

Energy type Consumption Production

2005 2010 2020 2030 2005 2010 2020 2030

Primary solid biomass

556 546.7 524.1 484.2 556 546.7 524.1 484.2

Biogas 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9

Ethanol 0.9 2 8.3 13.1 0.6 1.3 5.4 8.3

Biodiesel 0.1 4.1 19.3 29.3 0.1 4.1 18.7 24.8

Total bioenergy 560.5 556.4 555.4 530.5 560.2 555.7 551.9 521.2

TPES 3,232.5 3,831.6 5,031.6 6,168.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Bioenergy share of TPES

17.34% 14.52% 11.04% 8.6% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Regional bioenergy outlook

Use of bioenergy to decline

Projected annual consumption & production of bioenergy in Asia-Pacific (MToE), 2005-30

Source: Author’s, based on World Bank & FAO 2010

Modern bioenergy development…will be driven by government policies

India•15% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020•Ethanol mandates in certain states

Thailand•20% RE (incl. biomass) by 2022•5 billion litres of biofuel by 2022

Indonesia•5% RE by 2025•5% biofuels by 2025

China•362 GW RE (incl. biomass) by 2020•15 billion litres of biofuel by 2020

Vietnam•5% RE (incl. biomass) by 2020•560 million litres of biofuel by 2020

Philippines•267 MW biomass by 2030•10% ethanol by 2011

A question of trade-offs

Action to advance bioenergy can spill-over

EnergyAgriculture

Environment

Development

Food security in Asia

Region has poor access to sufficient nutrition

Undernourishment in 2010 by region (millions)

Source: FAO, 2010

Will food security be affected?

World food prices at record highs

Thailand

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Inde

x

Food Price Index Cereals Price Index Sugar Price Index

FAO food price index in real terms: 2005 - 2011

Source: FAO

Bioenergyand food security

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

FAO and bioenergy

Food security and energy systems

Better use of energy in agricultural & rural enterprises

Optimization of natural resource use for sustainable energy production

On energy, FAO targets...1.

2.

3.

Organizational focus

Ongoing and future workBioenergy and Food Security project

FAO Bioenergy & Food Security Indicators (BEFSCI) Project

FAO GMS Technical Cooperation Project on Bioenergy & Renewable Energy for Rural Development

Integrated Food & Energy Systems Program

...at FAO Regional Office

GMS

Global

FAO, Bioenergy & Food security

• Provide an information platform

• Inform judgements, aid decision-making & guide action

• Strengthen relationships and & capacity

FAO BEFS framework aims to:

Assess trade-offs associated with bioenergy

Natural Resources

Bioenergy Investment

Agriculture Agro-industry

Agricultural Productivity

Food Security: Access and Availability- Poverty Reduction- Wages and Employment- Prices- Rural Development (livelihoods)

Endowments

Intervention

Sectors

Impacts

Outcomes:Areas of concern

FAO’s BEFS framework

Natural Resources

Bioenergy Investment

Agriculture Agro-industry

Agricultural Productivity

Food Security: Access and Availability- Poverty Reduction- Wages and Employment- Prices- Rural Development

Natural Resource Analysis-Land Assessment-Water Resource Management-Woody Biomass & Residues

Techno-economic and Environmental Analysis-Production Costs-Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

Socio-economic Analysis- Household Food Security- Economy-wide Impacts

Diagnostic Analysis-Agricultural Outlook

BEFS Analytical Tools

Where is BEFS relevant?Everywhere

Bioenergy & Food Security ProjectInitial Target Countries

BEFS PERU

BEFS TANZANIA

BEFS THAILAND

BEFS HQ

BEFS Thailand

• Biofuel targets achievable but..

• Substantial growth in productivity required

• Significant decline in exports of biofuelcrops & rice expected

• Without productivity growth, area under biofuel crops will need to expand

• Changes in commodity prices could affect incidence of poverty

…further work and monitoring required

Key findings:

Bioenergy & Food Security Project ThailandRecommendations

Bioenergyfood security and climate change

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Climate change

What is the impact on food security?

Key Variables:

Temperature rise

Change in precipitation

Extreme weather

Sea level rise

C02 Fertilization

Temperature rise

Change in precipitation

Frequency of extreme events

Sea level rise

CO2 fertilization effects

Temperature rise

Change in precipitation

Frequency of extreme events

Sea level rise

CO2 fertilization effects

Climate change

variables

Food production assets

Infrastructure

Agriculturally‐based livelihoods

Non‐farm livelihoods assets

Food preparation assets

Food production assets

Infrastructure

Agriculturally‐based livelihoods

Non‐farm livelihoods assets

Food preparation assets

Changes in food system

assets

Producing food

Storing and processing of food

Distributing food

Consuming food 

Producing food

Storing and processing of food

Distributing food

Consuming food 

Changes in food system

activities

Food availability

Food accessibility

Food utilization

Food system stability

Food availability

Food accessibility

Food utilization

Food system stability

Impact on food security

Adaptive responses

Migration & conflict

Changes in consumption

patterns

Climate change and food securityFAO Framework

Climate change and food securityFAO Framework Continued

Shift in share of local food in diets

Increased consumption of new food items

Reduced consumption of wild foods

Reduced variety of food consumed

Shift in share of local food in diets

Increased consumption of new food items

Reduced consumption of wild foods

Reduced variety of food consumed

Changes in consumption

patterns

Changes in human health

Shift in share of local food in diets

Increased consumption of new food items

Reduced consumption of wild foods

Reduced variety of food consumed

Shift in share of local food in diets

Increased consumption of new food items

Reduced consumption of wild foods

Reduced variety of food consumed

Nutritional status

Drivers of climate change

FAO & BioenergyIn Asia

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Bioenergy & Food SecurityAsia and the Pacific

South Asia

Greater Mekong

Indonesia

Conclusion

Bioenergy policies - a question of trade-offs

EnergyAgriculture

Environment

Development

Ongoing and future work

Bioenergy and Food Security project

FAO Bioenergy & Food Security Indicators (BEFSCI) Project

FAO GMS Technical Cooperation Project on Bioenergy & Renewable Energy for Rural Development

Integrated Food & Energy Systems Program

...at FAO Regional Office

GMS

Global

BEFS Website

• Full technical and policy reports for each BEFS country

• Full description of BEFS Analytical Framework

• Description of activities in each country

• Information on each BEFS Partner Organization

• Links to BEFSCI reports and materials

www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs/

Find....

IFES Website

• Full description of IFES systems

• Report on IFES systems in China and Vietnam

• Information on future FAO IFES activities

http://www.fao.org/bioenergy/67564/en/

Find....

Contacts: FAO Bioenergy (Asia)

Natural Resources & Environment Group

Beau Damen – beau.damen@fao.org

Sverre Tvinnereim – sverre.tvinnereim@fao.org

Agriculture & Food Systems Group

Delgermaa Chuluunbataar – delgermaa.chuluunbataar@fao.org

www.fao.org/world/regional/rap/en/

Thank you

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific