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Beyond the lower-bound: the fossil record can provide empirically-informed prior distributions
on node ages in poorly-sampled groups
Graeme T. Lloyd, Matt Friedman and Mark A. Bell
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Credit/blame
Matt Friedman Mark Bell
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When?
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When?
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When?
Olenekian
247.2
251.2
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Prior distribution
247.2
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Prior distribution
247.2
?
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Fossil dating approaches #1
Nowak et al. 2013
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Fossil dating approaches #2
Bapst in press
Time
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Required data
TreeTip ages
Sampling rate
Branching rateExtinction rate
Extant diversity
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Required data
TreeTip ages
Sampling rate
Branching rateExtinction rate
Extant diversity
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Fossil dating approaches #3
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
Hedman 2010
τ0
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Fossil dating approaches #3
τ0
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
Hedman 2010Age (Ma)
τ0
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Problem
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
Hedman 2010
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Solution #1
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
Hedman 2010
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Solution #2
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
Hedman 2010
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Solution #2
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
Hedman 2010
=
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Frequency of problem
Lloyd et al. 2008
135/416 ‘unique’ nodes
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Frequency of problem
135/416 ‘unique’ nodes
What about the other two thirds?
Lloyd et al. 2008
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Modified approach
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Modified approach
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Modified approach
12
3
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Modified approach
12
3
Min Max
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Modified approach
1 2 3
12
3
Min Max
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Modified approach
12
3
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Data
• Informal supertree• Molecular backbone• 29 source trees• 567 taxa (483 fossil)• c. 10 minutes
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Dated tree
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Testing t0
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Testing t0
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Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Median
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Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: Mean
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Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: L95%
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Cambrian vs. Jurassic t0: U95%
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Molecular divergences #1
Meredith et al. 2011
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Molecular divergences #2
dos Reis et al. 2012
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Molecular comparison
This study Meredithet al. 2011
dos Reiset al. 2012
This study -
Meredithet al. 2011 1.07-1.17 -
dos Reiset al. 2012 1.00-1.09 1.00-1.16 -
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Molecular comparisonTh
is st
udy
Meredith et al. 2011 dos Reis et al. 2012
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Conclusions
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
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Conclusions
τ6
τ5
τ4
τ2
τ1
τ3
τ0
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Conclusions