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Bersin by Deloitte 2017 Predictions
Everything is Digital
Josh Bersin
Founder, Bersin by Deloitte
Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
January, 2017
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 2
Demographic and
political upheaval:
Millennials make up
more than half the workforce.
Boomers working into their
70s and 80s, and a new wave
of nationalism.
Digital technology
infiltrates our lives:
Technology is disrupting
business models and radically
changing the workplace and how
work is done.
Need to increase speed
and employee experience:
Engagement is flat, people are
distracted, hierarchical
structures are going away, yet
speed is increasing.
Career and social contract
with employees changed:
Employees now demand rapid
career growth, compelling and
flexible workplace, purpose, and
increased earnings.e
of purpose at work.
Forces Disrupting Organizations Today
MIT Deloitte Research, 6/2015 “Aligning the Organization for its Digital Future”
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Digital Disruption
A New Industrial Revolution
90% of organizations surveyed by MIT and
Deloitte anticipate their industries will be
totally disrupted by digital trends.
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.
Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 4
Siri Cortana Watson Alexa Viv
The Future of Work
Robotics, AI, Sensors are Here
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Robots Average cost below $25,000.
China purchasing 150,000 in 2016 to
deal with shrinking workforce
In 1900 41% of US jobs
were in agriculture. It’s
around 2% today.
There is no fundamental
economic law that
guarantees every adult
will be able to earn a
living solely
on the basis of sound
mind and good
character.
- Daniel Akst, “What we can learn from anxiety
about automation”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 6
Impact of Robotics and AI on Work
Jobs Shift to Skills Which Are Essentially Human
Source: Talent for survival
Essential skills for humans
working in the machine
age, Deloitte UK 2016
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The overwhelmed employee
The “average” US worker now
spends 25% of their day
reading or answering emails
Fewer than 16% of companies have
a program to “simplify work” or help
employees deal with stress.
More than 80% of all
companies rate their business
“highly complex” or “complex”
for employees.
The average mobile
phone user checks their
device 150 times a day.
The “average” US worker works
47 hours and 49% work 50 hours
or more per week, with 20% at
60+ hours per week
40% of the US population believes
it is impossible to succeed at work
and have a balanced family life.
Sources: Deloitte Human Capital Trends 2014 and 2015
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Productivity is suffering—is technology helping?
US productivity last ten years
1 billion
smartphones i-Phone
launched
100 million
Twitter users
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• Since 2000, American workers have lost an
entire week of vacation, dropping average
vacation days from 20.3 to 16.2
• Americans left 658 million unused vacation
days and lost 220 million of them in 2015
• 39% of Americans “want to be seen as a work
martyr” yet 86% say it’s bad for their family life.
We Are Working More Hours: The Vacation Crisis
48% of
Millennials want to be
seen as a
“work martyr”
Millennials
50% more
likely to forfeit
vacation days
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 10
Average
3.2
What are these
companies doing?
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
Engagement Remains a Challenge
Summer, 2016 Glassdoor Bersin by Deloitte Research
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1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
4. New generation of performance management tools
5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical
6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR
7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud
8. Leadership market reinvents itself again
9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream
10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role
Talent and HR Predictions for 2017
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Percent rating trend important
Importance of Human Capital trends to business
Organizational design
Leadership
Culture
Engagement
92%
89%
86%
85%
Learning
Design thinking
Skills of HR organization
People analytics
Digital HR
Workforce management
77%
74%
71%
84%
79%
78%
% very
impor tant
2016
56%
57%
54%
48%
44%
39%
36%
36%
32%
28%
% very
impor tant
2015
…
50%
50%
39%
…
39%
29%
…
…
The gap
between need
and capability
has increased
400% since
2014
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Shared values and culture
Transparent goals and
projects
Free flow of information
and feedback
People rewarded for
their skills and abilities,
not position
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
A network of teams
B
A
D C F
A
C D E
B
G
How things were How things “are” How things work
E
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3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
What We’ve Learned about Feedback
Source: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19829208
Lack of feedback creates anxiety,
worry, and poor performance
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The Feedback System
How Does Feedback Work Today?
Engagement
Survey
Senior Management Team
Employees
Line Managers | HR
Performance
Review
Filtering and Cleaning
Time
Per
Year
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Feedback is the Killer App
The World of Feedback Apps is Here` Traditional
Engagement Surveys
Work Environments
Quick Feedback
Team Management Apps
Performance Management
Social Recognition
Well Being
Culture
Pulse Surveys
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Feedback = Performance at Deloitte
1. I am really enthusiastic about the mission of the firm
2. At work, I clearly know what is expected of me
3. In my team, I am surrounded by people who share my values
4. At work, I have the chance to use my strengths every day
5. My teammates have my back
6. I know I will be recognized for excellent work
7. I have great confidence in the firm’s future
8. In my work, I am always challenged to grow
Bottom Quartile
Middle Quartile
Top Quartile
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4.4
3.2
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
Pulse Survey items
Questions that Predict High Performance at Deloitte
Source: Deloitte pilots FYs14-15
Questions © Marcus Buckingham Company.
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The Listening Organization
Enterprise Feedback Architecture
Integrated
Reporting & Analytics
Sentiment Analysis
Network Analysis
Social Media
Monitoring
Job Boards
& Ads Employment
Brand
Customer
Satisfaction
Anonymous
Feedback Tools
Pulse Surveys
Annual
Survey
Performance
Check-ins
Exit
Interviews Performance
Appraisals
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People Analytics: Taking Off
Progress is Rapidly Accelerating
2015 2016 % Change
Performing multi-year workforce planning 38% 48% + 26%
Correlating people data to business performance 24% 39% + 63%
Correlating people data to business performance (% excellent) 5% 11% + 120%
Using people data to predict business performance 28% 36% + 29%
Using people data to predict performance (% excellent) 4% 9% + 125%
Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends, 2016 and 2015
Plan
Correlate
Predict
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4. A New Generation of Performance Management Tools
Reinvention of Performance Management Arrives
Then:
The Networked Hierarchy
Now:
The Digital Organization
• Cascade and align corporate goals
• Drive and measure top-down execution
• Evaluate high performers
• Force out low performers
• Allocate pay for performance
• Assess competency gaps
• Create development plans
• Identify HIPOs, leadership candidates
• Create real-time team-centric goals
• Drive front-line, iterative execution
• Help everyone perform at high level
• Develop and coach low performers
• Differentiate pay for performance
• Provide continuous learning
• Give positive developmental feedback
• Engage teams and assess next role
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What’s Really New? Almost Everything!
The New
World of
Performance
Management
Check-ins
Transparent
Goals
Peer
Feedback
Feedback
to Manager
Engagement
Survey
Individual
Assessment Team
Assessment
Continuous
Micro-
Learning
Regular
Evaluation
Integrated
into Workflow
Mobile
App
Annual Process Continuous
Manager-Centric Team-Centric
Hierarchical Multi-Directional
Competitive Developmental
Subjective Data-Driven
Secret Transparent
Single Rating Richer Rating
Vendor
A
Vendor
C
Vendor
D
Vendor
E
Vendor
G
Vendor
F Vendor
B
Fundamental Changes Are Enormous
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27 companies that redesigned their process, found
overwhelmingly positive outcomes:
• 100% said conversation quality improved
• 83% said conversation frequency increased
• 90% said employee engagement increased
• 91% say data for evaluation is better
• 96% say tools are easier and simpler
• 77% expect continuous feedback
• 45% are using check-ins to assess managers
• 50% say training process is easier and shorter
• 67% doing feedback quarterly
• 80% expect employees to drive check-ins
And Yes, The New Models For PM Do Work
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Em
plo
yee
Vit
ality
Business Performance
Cost
Reduction Labor
Productivity
Retention Productivity Collaboration Team
Performance
Leadership
Health
Monitoring
Employee
Assistance
Medical
Benefits
Fitness
Challenges
Nutrition
Exercise
Sleep
Stress
Sustainable Performance
Recognition
Skills and
Training
Work
Environment
Rewards
Leadership
Management
Clear Goals
Growth
Opportunities
Drive
Wellbeing
Self
Discovery Career
Purpose
Mindfulness
Abundance
Mentality
Positive Thinking
Culture Fit
Family
5. Wellness matures and becomes central
From Wellness to WellBeing to Performance
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Changing Employee Habits
Photo: https://squashskills.com/blog/-/does-jogging-have-any-benefits-for-squash-players-159/
Personal plan
Culture of fitness
Challenges, Leaderboard
Apps, Wearables
Groups
Rewards
Storytelling
Management support
Slack time
Facilities
Leadership
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6. Focus on the Employee Experience
Careers have changed and so have people
“Our candidates
today are not looking
for a career…
They’re looking for
an Experience.”
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Culture, value, leadership, and career (The Big Four)
What matters to employees
Culture and leadership are 3X more important
than salary in your employment brand.
Career development and learning are almost
2X more important than comp, benefits,
and work environment.
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US Workplace Culture Growth in Google Trends, since 2008 Recession
Workplace Culture Keeps Getting Hotter!
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Millennials’ Skills are Not Being Utilized And They Will Leave to Find The Growth Opportunities They Want
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Culture and engagement are related, but different
LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT
The driving force behind setting and maintaining Culture and Engagement
via modeling behaviors and expectations for the workforce
CULTURE The way things work
around here
ENGAGEMENT The way people feel about the
way things work around here
• Way of describing employees’ level
of commitment to the company and
their work
• When engagement is poor,
employees feel uneasy or
uncommitted
• Declines in engagement lead to
declines in overall productivity
Culture predicts
Company performance.
Engagement predicts
Individual performance.
• Series of behaviors that is closely aligned with
strategy
• Includes values, beliefs, behaviors, artifacts,
and reward systems that influence people’s
behavior
• Driven by top leadership and is deeply
embedded through processes, reward
systems, and behaviors
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Factors that link culture and engagement
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Bersin by Deloitte Engagement Model
The Simply Irresistible Organization®
Meaningful
Work
Hands-On
Management
Positive Work
Environment
Growth
Opportunity
Trust in
Leadership
Autonomy Clear transparent goals Flexible, humane work
environment
Facilitated talent mobility Mission and purpose
Selection to Fit Coaching & feedback Recognition rich culture Career growth in many
paths
Investment in people, trust
Small Teams Leadership Development Open flexible workspace Self and formal
development
Transparency and
communication
Time for Slack Modern Performance
Management
Inclusive, diverse culture High impact learning
culture
Inspiration
Collaboration and Connection
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7. Emergence of Digital HR, Learning, Recruiting
HR Technology Now A Hot Marketplace
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 34
Moving beyond the cloud
Rip and Replace Pace is Slowing
Core HR Technology spending is slowing (41% say it’s flat) Clients not fully satisfied: only 21% of customers say talent systems “always meet their needs.” Two biggest growth areas are Learning and Analytics (37% yty) Career, succession, onboarding, analytics hottest functional needs User satisfaction is 2/3 lower than vendor satisfaction
How Will You Upgrade Your HR Technology?
2015 Cedar Crestone survey and 2015 Bersin by Deloitte HR Systems Research
Ris
k
Speed
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Feedback and
Engagement
Reinventing
Performance
Video Based
Learning & Career
Team
Management Well-Being
Work—Team
Management
2017: A New Set of Disruptive Applications M
AR
KE
T
GR
OW
TH
—A
DO
PT
IO
N
2 0 1 6
Pulse
Survey
Text
Analytics
Mobile
Feedback
2 0 2 0
Culture
Assessment
Coaching
Tools
Checkins
with Feedback
Agile, open
goal management
Org Network
Analysis
Team Assessment
Tools
Social Recognition
Integrated
Smart Tools
For Leader
Coaching
P R O G R E S S I O N O V E R T I M E
Video Learning
Content
Curation
Intelligent
Learning
Career
Planning
Gamification
Accreditation
Well Being
Fitness Tracking
Competitions
Social Sharing
Points
Gamification
Fitness Merges
w/Engagement
Virtual Work
Management
Document
Management
Goal Sharing
Goal Tracking
Communications
Messaging
Curated
Micro-Learning
Engagement tools
directed to leaders
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Shift from Cloud to Digital Delivery
Integrated HR Apps Are The Future
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Convergence of HR Systems Ahead
Diet
Wellness
Fitness
Challenges
Goal Management
Feedback
Pulse
Survey
Surveys
Engagement Tools
Mobile
Feedback
Customer
Feedback
Check Ins
Personality
Assessment
Performance
Review
Fitness
Monitoring
Health
Behavior Change
Social Recognition
Customer based
Recognition
Community
Circles
Affinity
Groups Anniversaries
Work Events
Engagement
Analytics
Travel
Time Management
Video Learning
Video Sharing
Gamified
Onboarding
Career
Planning
Training and
Certification
Engagement
Feedback
Performance Recognition
Rewards Learning
Well Being &
Work Management
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From Application Tracking to Recruitment Success
Reinvention of the Talent Acquisition Market
Applicant
Tracking
Candidate
Marketing
Sourcing
Video
Interview
Analytics
Next Gen
Talent
Acquisition
Onboarding
Manager
Tools
?
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 39
AI Applied to Recruitment and Selection
Video Analytics Becomes Real
https://www.fastcompany.com/3064863/election-2016/watch-this-
ai-platform-assess-trumps-and-clintons-emotional-intelligence
• Video interviewing now nearly
mainstream, as many as 40% of
interviews are done digitally
• AI software (HireVue) can now detect
race, emotion, gender, and tendency to
exaggerate or lie through video
• While use of this data is not legally
defensible yet, companies are actively
using this data to select candidates
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 40
Integrating HR into Work Itself…
And There’s More to Come…
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AI, natural language, chat integration, and “experience platforms”
And There’s More to Come…
Workflow Interaction
Bots
Content
Videos
Podcasts
Notifications
Campaigns Real-Time
Analytics
Case
Management
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 42
Foundational Leadership Content and Curricula, Programs by Levels, Offerings as Benefits
Level 1
Integrated Leadership Competencies, programs, audience-specific, talent management
Level 2
Scalable Leadership Capability models, culture, executive commitment, rewards
Level 3
Systemic Leadership Culture, structure, exposure, risk-taking, HR-business integration
Level 4
Bers
in b
y D
elo
itte
17%
58%
18%
7%
8. Leadership market reinvents itself
Leadership development is a “broken market”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 43
Maturity growth in global and experiential programs,
but not enough focus on Millennials (% companies who are “excellent” at these areas)
Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends 2016, n=7,000
70% of Millennials
tell us they are
receiving no
leadership
development
at all.
Focus areas
Weakest area seems to be Millennial programs
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 44
Too Many “Good Ideas” Out There to Pick From
Unfortunately, while much ink has been spilled on the topic of
individual leadership, very little of it can be scientifically supported.
In an influential book published in 1991, the University of San Diego’s
Joseph Rost pointed out that writers had defined leadership in more
than 200 ways since 1900, often with nothing but conjecture or
personal experience to back up their claims.
https://hbr.org/2016/12/succession-planning-what-the-research-says
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 45
The Digital Organization®
Digital DNA Like human DNA, Digital DNA carries the 23
underlying instructions, development,
functioning, and replication for being “digital’.
These are expressed as digital traits and
characteristics. They are present in all areas
of the organization: business models,
operating models, customer interaction,
organization structure, talent, technology,
cyber-security, culture, etc.
There are four levels of Digital Maturity:
Exploring, Doing, Becoming, and Being.
© Deloitte Consulting LLP
Real Time & On-Demand
Fluidity
Constant Disruption
Changing Mix of Traditional & Non-traditional Stakeholders
Continuously Innovating
Modulating Risk & Security Boundaries
Morphing Team Structures
Intentionally Collaborative
Multi-Modal Operations
Continuous Ecosystem Disruption
Iterative
Changing Nature and Typology of Work
Constantly Changing Decision Criteria
Ongoing Shifts in Decision Rights and Power
Geography Agnostic
Uneven Velocity between Digital & Legacy
Dynamic Skill Requirements
Increased Customer Involvement
Productive Mobility (non-traditional workspace options)
Flattening and Changing Hierarchy
Agility
Fail Early, Fail Fast, Learn Faster
Democratizing Information
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CEO’s Do Not Understand The Issue Yet
67% of CEOs responding to a recent Korn Ferry
study believe that technology will create more
value than human capital.
44% of leaders in large global businesses believe
that the prevalence of robotics, automation, and
ATI will make people “largely irrelevant” in the
future of work.
And, to make it worse, “46% say they do not
know how to measure workforce performance.”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 47
Essential Talent Activities Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices
Level 1
Critical Talent Growth Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance
Level 2
Managed Talent Relationships Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated
into talent strategy
Level 3
Inclusive Talent System Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture
Level 4
Bers
in b
y D
elo
itte
10%
19%
59%
12%
The New Bersin by Deloitte Talent Management Maturity Model
Source: Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, 2015.
9. Inclusion, bias, diversity go mainstream
Inclusive Talent Practices Drive Financial Results
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 48
Polling question
Where would you place your organization on the Inclusion Maturity Model?
• Level 1—Standalone disconnected staffing, training, and performance practices
• Level 2—Critical talent segments, focus on hiring, training, performance
• Level 3—Workforce planning, development planning, leadership development integrated into talent strategy
• Level 4—Talent strategies integrated with inclusion, diversity, and culture
• Not sure / NA
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Effective Inclusion Is A Leadership Issue
Six Signature Traits of Inclusive Leadership
https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-
en/topics/talent/six-signature-traits-of-
inclusive-leadership.html
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 50
• People are inherently biased
Age, gender, experience, proximity, race
Training and workshops are the new rage
Training is good but not enough
• Bias can be removed from “processes” not “people”
Recruitment and selection
Promotion and leadership
Compensation and rewards
Leaders held accountable
• New data driven solutions drive out bias fastest
• We have proof that diverse teams perform better, are more
innovative, and more engaged
Unconscious Bias Takes Center Stage
https://hbr.org/2016/11/why-diverse-teams-are-smarter
https://hbr.org/2016/09/diverse-teams-feel-less-comfortable-and-thats-why-they-perform-better
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 51
Our Data Proves Value of Inclusive Talent Practices
As compared with organizations of similar size
and less mature talent management practices,
mature large organizations had 2.3 times higher
cashflow per employee over a three-year
period. When contrasted against less mature
small organizations, mature small organizations
had 13 times higher mean cashflow from
operations, five times higher mean cashflow as a
percentage of revenue, and five times higher
mean annual change in share price (all based on
a three-year average).
Source: 2015 High-Impact Talent Management, Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 52
“Over 300 years of economic history,
the principal and most enduring
mechanism for distribution of wealth
and reduction in inequality is the
diffusion of skills and knowledge.”
10. L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
The learning curve is the earning curve
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 53
Consumerization of education has arrived
MOOCs Forever Changed Education
400+ universities. 2,400+ courses.
35+ million students.
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 54
The training industry tries to respond
L&D is Not Keeping Up
• Average employee spends 6.5 hours a week learning
or trying to learn
• 2/3 of L&D leaders believe learners should use
learning every week or more.
• CLOs say L&D is “wildly out of sync” with how
people learn….
• Employees rate L&D -31% net promoter score
(49% would not recommend and only 18% would
recommend their training dept.)
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 55
ILT shrinking in volume,
growing in importance
Online and collaborative
learning Is finally working
OTJ and apprenticeship
is growing rapidly
Today only 16% of L&D spending is allocated to instructor
delivery, vs. 21% in 2011 and 33% in 2006
Source: Bersin Corporate Learning Factbook® 2015
Shifting resources away from ILT, toward online and on the job
Huge shift in content strategy
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 56
End of the Learning Management System?
A New Market Emerges: Learning Experience Platform
The “Learning Management System” (LMS)
Mobile Pathways Videos Articles Channels People Courses
Search | Curation | Recommendations | Machine Learning
The “Learning System”
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 57
One Final Point:
Jobs are not going away
Empathy, creativity, and human skills are more
important than ever…
But we must design our organizations and
jobs to empower people and the customer
experience.
57
The Future of Work is Here, And It’s Our Job To Deal With It
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joshbersin/2016/09/21/the-future-of-
work-its-already-here-and-not-as-scary-as-you-think/#7b44ff1c5506
HR 2017—Bersin by Deloitte predictions for the year ahead Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. 58
1. Organization design will be challenged everywhere
2. Culture and engagement remain top priorities
3. Real time feedback and analytics explode in maturity
4. New generation of performance management tools
5. Wellbeing and human performance emerges as critical
6. Employee experience becomes central focus for HR
7. Digital HR, learning, and recruiting displaces cloud
8. Leadership market reinvents itself again
9. Inclusion, unconscious bias, diversity goes mainstream
10.L&D will struggle to reinvent itself
11.Future of work will push HR into a strategic role
Talent and HR Predictions for 2017
Copyright © 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
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