Belgrade City Report · 2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013 Economy/Investment Economy...

REAL ESTATE

BELGRADE

Q4 2013

Izveštaj o BeograduT4 2013

on point

Belgrade City ReportQ4 2013

2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013

Economy/Investment

Economy

Due to international and domestic challenges, the economic risks in

Serbia remained high throughout 2013. As the country attracts

significant inflows of FDI, industry will play a major role in economic

growth. Serbian exporters will enter new markets, due to

established trade relations with the EU and regional neighbours.

Besides the FIAT plant in Kragujevac, which is the main pillar of the

Serbian economy, another positive factor is final preparation for the

start of the construction works of the South Stream natural gas

pipeline, connecting Russia and Western Europe. According to the

National Statistical office, real GDP growth in the third quarter of

2013 was 3.7% compared to the same period of last year. A

significant growth of gross value added sectors was recorded in

electrical energy, gas and steam supply (20.5%), information and

communication (12.5%), processing industry (8.7%) and the mining

industry (8.3%). A significant decrease was recorded in the

construction sector (-26.0%), followed by the transportation sector

(-3.5%).

According to IHS Global insight, real GDP increased from 1.6% to

2.0%, due to a significant acceleration of growth during the third

quarter. Real GDP growth in 2014 has been reduced from 3.0% to

1.9%, due to a dampening effect on fiscal consolidation and a

limited capacity for further expansion of agriculture.

GDP Growth (%) Rast BDP(%)

Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, January 2014

According to the National Statistical Office, consumer price growth

in December 2013 increased by 0.2% in comparison to the

previous month. The highest growth was recorded in the sector of

Clothes and footwear (1.1%), Communication (0.7%) and Food and

non-alcoholic drinks and Alcohol drinks and tobacco (both 0.3%).

In November 2013, industrial production noted an increase of 4.2%,

in physical volume, in comparison to the corresponding period of

last year. The processing industry, electricity, gas, steam and air

conditioning supply mainly influenced this increase.

According to the Labour Force Survey conducted by the National

Statistical Office, the unemployment rate among people of a

working age (15-64) in October 2013 was 21% which represents a

decrease in comparison to April 2013 when it was 25%. IHS Global

Insight forecasts an unemployment rate of 24.2% for 2014.

Unemployment Rate (%) Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)


The average net salary paid in December 2013 amounted to RSD

50,820 or €443. When compared to the previous month, this was

an increase of 14.5% in nominal terms. The average net salary in

Belgrade for December 2013 amounted to €543 which is

approximately 22.5% higher than the national average salary..

Political Situation

Country’s future economic development depends largely on the

foreign policy approach. EU member states endorsed European

Commission recommendation for Serbia to start negotiations in

January 2014. Belgrade has set a timeframe for completion of 35

chapters of accession negotiation by 2020. All the indications are

positive that Serbia will successfully complete the transition to full

EU membership.

The country also pursues closer relations with Russia, with a view

to secure financial support. Public confidence in the trustworthiness

of state institutions has been improving in Serbia.

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On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q4 2013 3

Privreda/Investicije

Privreda

Usled brojnih izazova na domaćem i inostranom tržištu, ekonomski

rizik je ostao na visokom novou tokom čitave 2013. godine. Glavni

uticaj na ekonomski rast prilikom privlačenja stranih direktnih

investicija će imati industrijska proizvodnja. Usled uspostavljenih

trgovinskih odnosa sa EU i susednim regionalnim zemljama,

izvoznici iz Srbije će ući na nova tržišta. Pored FIAT fabrike koja

predstavlja stub srpske ekonomije, drugu svetlu tačku čine završni

radovi za početak izgradnje gasovoda Južni tok, koji povezuje

Rusiju i Zapadnu Evropu. Na osnovu podataka Zavoda za statistiku,

realni rast BDP-a tokom trećeg kvartala 2013. godine iznosi 3,7% u

odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Značajan rast je zabeležen

u sektoru električne energije, gasa i pare (20,5%), informacija i

komunikacija (12,5%), preradjivačke industrije (8,7%) i rudarstva

(8,3%). Najveći pad je zabeležen u sektoru gradjevine (-26,0%), i

zatim transportnom sektoru (-3,5%).

Prema informacijama IHS Global Insight, usled značajnog ubrzanja

rasta tokom trećeg kvartala, realni BDP je porastao sa 1,6% na

2,0%. Realni rast BDP-a tokom za 2014. godinu je smanjen sa 3,0%

na 1,9% usled lošeg finansijskog prilagodjavanja i ograničenog

kapaciteta za dalju ekspanziju poljoprivrede.

CPI (%) Inflacija (%)


Prema Anketi o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republlički zavod za

statistiku Srbije, rast potrošačkih cena u decembru 2013. godine je

porastao za 0,2% u odnosu na prethodni mesec. Najveći rast je

zabeležen u sektoru Odeća i obuća (1,1%), komunikacija (0,7%) i

hrana i bezalkoholna pica i alkoholna pica i duvan (oba 0,3%).

Tokom novembra 2013. godine industrijska proizvodnja beleži rast

fizičkog obima od 4,2% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine.

Najveći uticaj na ovo povećanje su imale prerađivačka industrija,

električna energija, gas, para i klimatizacija.

Na osnovu Ankete o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republički zavod za

statistiku, stopa nezaposlenosti lica radnog uzrasta (15-64) u

Oktobru 2013. godine je bila 21%, što predstavlja pad u odnosu na

april 2013. godine kad je iznosila 25%. Prema IHS Global Insight,

očekivana stopa nezaposlenosti tokom 2014. godine će iznositi

24,2%.

Yields % Stope prinosa %

Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, January 2014

Prosečna neto zarada isplaćena tokom Decembra 2013 iznosila je

50,820 dinara odnosno €443, što predstavlja povećanje od 14,5% u

nominalnom iznosu. Prosečna neto zarada na nivou Beograda za

isti period iznosi €543, što je oko 22,5% više od prosečne plate u

zemlji.

Politička situacija

Budući ekonomski razvoj zemlje umnogome zavisi od pristupa

spoljnoj politici. Države članice Evropske unije su podržale odluku

Evropske komisija o početku pregovora sa Srbijom u januaru 2014.

godine. Beograd je postavio rok za ispunjenje 35 poglavlja o

pristupanju do 2020. godine. Svi pokazatelji su pozitivni da će Srbija

uspešno završiti tranziciju ka punopravnom članstvu u EU.

Srbija teži bližem odnosu sa Rusijom, sa ciljem da se obezbedi

finansijska podrška. Poverenje javnosti u pouzdanost državnih

institucija je u porastu.

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e

Sector/Sektor Yield/ Stopa Prinosa %

Changes on previous quarter/

Promene u odnosu na

prethodno tromesečje

Office/ Kancelarijski prostor 9,00 ↓

Logistics/ Logistički objekti 10,25 ↔

Retail/ Maloprodajmi prostori

Shopping Centres/ Tržni centri9,00

↔


Office Market

Supply

2013 was marked by one office building completion, namely Danube

Business centre, which added 5,200 m2 GLA to the market. This

building was 60% occupied six months after its opening, indicating

the lack of modern office space. Belgrade’s office stock remains at

the same level of 615,454m2 GLA. Approximately 54% of Belgrade’s

total office stock consists of Class A office buildings, located mainly

in the Central Business District – New Belgrade.

The only project scheduled for completion in 2014 is the Old Mill

office tower, which will increase the office stock by 3,870 m2 GLA in

the third quarter. This is a mixed-use complex, including an office

building and hotel, which will operate under name Radisson Blu Mill

Beograd, located near the Belgrade Fair. Interested tenants have

already begun negotiations to lease office space, in order to adjust

the office space layout to their needs.

Total Class A & B Stock (m2) / Ukupna ponuda prostora klase

A i B (m2)


Demand

In the last quarter of 2013, gross take-up stood at 8,922 m2. Market

activity was mainly dominated by new lease agreements of 7,142

m2, followed by expansions of 1,560m2 and lease renewals of 220

m2.The majority of transactions happened in New Belgrade.

Total activity during 2013 stood at 60,028m2 recording an

approximate 34% increase in comparison to 2012, excluding owner

occupied deals. Gross take-up in Q4 2013 recorded a slight drop

when compared to the corresponding period of last year. There

were 17 transactions in Q4 and the average deal size was 525 m2.

The highest share in leasing activity was held by the IT and

Professional services sectors, followed by the pharmaceutical and

manufacturing sectors. The majority of tenants continue to seek

floor sizes in range of 100-500 m2. Three transactions exceeded

1,000 m2.

Vacancy

Due to very low new supply, the vacancy rate continued its

decreasing trend, similar to the past 3 years. The rate currently

stands at 10.8%, indicating the need for new office development.

The vacancy rate in class A office buildings stands at 11.5% and

10% in Class B space.

Office Completions (m2) and Vacancy Rates (%) Class A & B

/ Završena izgradnja (m2) i stopa nepopunjenosti (%)


Rents and Yields

Over the last twelve months, prime office rents in Belgrade

remained stable at €14-16 m2/month. Rents in Class B premises in

New Belgrade range between €9-13 m2/month and in the downtown

€10-12 m2/month. In the wider New Belgrade area, rents are up to

€11 m2/month and within modern office space in downtown areas,

rents do not surpass 16 m2/month. We do not anticipate any

changes over the short term. Incentives such as rent-free periods

(usually three months), fit-out contributions and additional free

parking spaces are offered by landlords. The prime office yield in

Belgrade remained at the level of 9.00%.

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Kancelarijski prostor

Ponuda

Protekla 2013. godina je obeležena završetkom Danube poslovnog

centra, što je dodalo 5,200m2 na tržištu poslovnog prostora. Nakon

šest meseci od otvaranja, zgrada je dostigla 60% popunjenosti,

ukazivajući na nedostatak modernog poslovnog prostora. Beograd

raspolaže sa 615,454m2 prostora. Oko 54% ponude čini

kancelarijski prostor klase A, koji je uglavnom nalazi u centralnoj

poslovnoj zoni - Novi Beograd.

Jedini projekat u izgradnji, čiji je završetak planiran u trećem

kvartalu 2014. godine je Stari Mlin (3,870m2), u blizini beogradskog

sajma. Pored kancelarijskog prostora, kompleks uključuje i hotel koji

će poslovati pod imenom Radisson Blu Mill Beograd. Zainteresovani

zakupci su već počeli pregovore oko iznajmljivanja poslovnog

prostora, kako bi prilagodili izgled prostora njihovim potrebama.

Prime Office Yields %

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %


Potražnja

Tokom poslednjeg kvartala ukupan bruto zakup je iznosio 8,922m2.

Najveće udeo na tržištu su imale nove transakcije 7,142m2, zatim

proširenje postojećih prostora 1,560m2, i obnove postojećih ugovora

220m2. Većina transakcija se dogodila na Novom Beogradu.

Ukupna aktivnost tokom 2013 godine iznosi 60,028 m2,

predstavljajući rast od 34% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu

izuzimajući prostor koji je zauzet od strane vlasnika. Bruto zakup u

četvrtom kvartalu beleži blagi pad u odnosu na isti period 2012

godine. Ukupno je bilo 17 transakcije i prosečna veličina izdatog

prostora iznosi 525m2.

Najveće učešće na tržištu su imali sektor IT i profesionalnih usluga,

zatim farmaceutski i proizvodni sektor. Većina zakupaca I dalje traži

prostor veličine 100-500m2. Dogodile su se tri transakcije koje su

obuhvatile prostor preko 1,000m2.

Raspoloživi prostor

Zbog niske ponude novoizgradjenog poslovnih objekata, stopa

raspoloživog prostora je nastavila trend opadanja. Trenutna stopa

iznosi 10,8%, ukazujući na potrebu za izgradnjom novog poslovnog

prostora. Stopa nepopunjenosti u prvoklasnih poslovnim zgradama

je oko 11,5%, dok je u zgradama klase B oko 10%.

Prime Rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno


Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Tokom prethodnih dvanaest meseci cene prvoklasnog prostora u

Beogradu su ostale stabilne, odnosno €14-16m2 mesečno. Zakup

kancelarijskog prostora klase B poslovnog prostora na Novom

Beogradu je u rasponu od €9-13m2 mesečno,a u centru grada od

€10-12/m2/mesečno. Zakupnine u širem području Novog Beograda,

su do €11m2 mesečno, a u modernom kancelarijskom prostoru u

centru grada, ne prelaze preko €16m2 mesečno. Ne očekujemo

nikakve promene u kratkom roku. Vlasnici prostora i dalje nude

podsticaje poput rent-free period (uglavnom tri meseca), dodatnih

parking mesta bez naknade i učešće zakupodavaca u troškovima

završnih radova. Stopa prinosa za prvoklasne kancelarijske prostore

u Beogradu je ostala na nivou od prethodnog kvartala kad je pala na

9,00%.

8.00%8.25%8.50%8.75%9.00%9.25%9.50%9.75%

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Retail Market

Supply

Over the last decade, the Belgrade retail market has experienced

a fair degree of modernization with developments such as

shopping centres, retail parks and big box schemes. During

2013, Belgrade market saw the opening of Stadium Centre

Voždovac, which added 30,000 m2 GLA of modern shopping

stock to the market. Since its completion, prime shopping centre

stock in Belgrade stands at 128,000 m2 GLA or 78 m2 per 1,000

residents, while the total shopping centre stock comprises

201,000 m2 GLA.

Another expanding concept includes retail parks, which are

becoming more popular among retailers, due to the lack of

modern shopping centers. In November 2013, BIG CEE retail

park in Novi Sad completed its third phase, which added

16,000m2 GLA, while the whole park totals 34,000 m2 GLA.

Shopping Center Stock in Belgrade (m2)

Ponuda tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)


IBC Retail Park in Zemun, Belgrade (15,000 m2 GLA) is currently

under construction and scheduled for delivery in Q2 2014.

Outside the capital, there are two more retail parks scheduled for

2014, namely Capitol Park Šabac (9,850 m2 GLA) and Vivo

Shopping Park in Jagodina (10,000 m2 GLA). Other, large

projects announced for construction commencement are

Višnjička Plaza Shopping center (40,000 m2 GLA) and Delta

Planet (68,000 m2 GLA), both without scheduled delivery dates.

Demand

Despite the economic uncertainties, demand from international

retailers remained quite stable. The main obstacle they are facing

is the lack of modern space which would satisfy their

requirements. Since prime shopping centers have a vacancy rate

of close to zero, new brands are interested in signing for

premises in expanding retail parks outside the capital. In 2013,

the highly anticipated H&M opened its first store in Delta City.

Desigual opened its first store in Ušće shopping center and the

first mono brand Vans store was opened in Knez Mihajlova

Street.

Total Annual Spend in € per Capita in Belgrade

Godišnja potrošnja po stanovniku u Beogradu

Source/Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Demand for retail units on the high street has decreased since

retailers became more interested in space within modern

shopping developments. Yet, due to the lack of modern shopping

centres, the vacancy rate remains close to zero.

Rents and Yields

Prime rents recorded a slight decrease during Q4. Prime

shopping centre rents for a 100 to 200 m2 retail unit currently

stands at €60 m2/month, representing a drop from the previous

quarter, while rent for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova Street

remained at €80 m2/month. Average rents in prime shopping

centres in Belgrade range between €27 and €29 m2/month.

Prime shopping centre yields remained stable at 9.00%.

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Maloprodajni prostori

Ponuda

Tokom poslednjih deset godina, maloprodajno tržište Beograda je

dostiglo stepen modernizacije izgradnjom tržnih centara,

maloprodajnih parkova i big box koncepta. Tokom 2013. godine,

na postojećem maloprodajnom tržištu u Beogradu je izgradjen

tržni centar Stadion na Voždovcu 30,000m2. Trenutna ponuda

prvoklasnih tržnih centara u Beogradu je 128,000m2, odnosno

78m2 na 1,000 stanovnika, dok ukupna ponuda obuhvala

201,000m2 maloprodajnog prostora u tržnim centrima.

Drugi popularni maloprodajni koncept koji je sve više

rasprostranjen zbog manjka ponude modernih tržnih centara je

Maloprodajni park. U novembru 2013. godine je izgradjena treća

faza BIG CEE maloprodajnog parka u Novom Sadu koja obuhvata

tržni centar sa prodajnom površinom od 16,000m2 , dok ceo park

raspolaže sa 34,000m2 prodajnog prostora.

Prime Shopping Center Yields

Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara


Trenutno je u izgradnji IBC Maloprodajni park u Zemunu,Beograd

(15,000m2), čije je otvaranje predvidjeno za drugi kvartal 2014.

godine. Izvan glavnog grada, još dva maloprodajna parka su u

fazi izgradnje, odnosno Capitol Park Šabac (9,850m2) i Vivo

Shopping Park Jagodina (10,000m2), čiji je završetak predvidjen

za 2014. godinu. Drugi veliki projekti, čiji je početak izgradnje

najavljen su tržni centri Višnjička Plaza (40,000m2) i Delta Planet

(68,000m2), bez definisanog datuma završetka.

Potražnja

Uprkos ekonomskim neizvesnostima, tražnja od strane

internacionalnih brendova je prilično stabilna. Glavna prepreka sa

kojom se susreću je nedostatak modernog prostora koji

zadovoljava njihove potrebe. S obzirom da je stopa nepopunjenog

prostora blizu nule, novi brendovi su zainteresovani za zakup

prostora u maloprodajnim parkovima izvan glavnog grada. Tokom

2013. godine dugo očekivani brend H&M je otvorio svoju prvu

prodavnicu u tržnom centru Delta city. Desigual je takodje otvorio

prvu prodavnicu u tržnom centru Ušće, i prva Vans mono

prodavnica je otvorena u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici.

Prime rents €/m2/month

Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno


Tražnja za maloprodajnim jedinicama u centralnim ulicama je

opala od izgradnje modernih tržnih centara. Medjutim zbog

nedostatka tržnih centara, stopa nepopunjenosto maloprodajnog

prostora u istim je blizu nule.

Visine zakupa i stope prinosa

Tokom četvrtog kvartala 2013. godine je doslo do blagog pada

visine zakupa. Cena zakupa za maloprodajne jedinice površine

100-200m2 u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima je €60/m2/mesečno,

beležeći mali pad u odnosu na prethodni kvartal. Zakup istih

maloprodajnih jedinica u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici je

€80/m2/mesečno. Prosečna cena zakupa u modernim tržnim

centrima u Beogradu je u rasponu od €27 do €29. Stopa prinosa

za prvoklasne tržne centre je ostala na nivou od 9,00%.

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High Street Shopping Centers


Market Practice

Leasing Market Practice

Lease length

• Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in

the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts

• In a few cases longer leases can be agreed

• 3 year break options are becoming more common

Payment Terms

• Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either €

or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the

payment

Rental Deposit

• It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee

equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail

and industrial)

• Indexation is annually in line with European CPI

Other Charges

• Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption

are paid separately)(offices and industrial)

• Service charges and marketing costs (retail)

Insurance

• The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by

service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own

premises, contents and civil liabilities

Incentives

• Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fit-

out contributions and free of charge additional parking space

Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora

Dužina zakupa

• Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u

centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5

(retko 7 godina)

• U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period

• Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine

Uslovi plaćanja

• Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili u

€ ili u RSD prema valutnom kursu na dan plaćanja

Depozit

• Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom garancijom

u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste prostora

(kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)

• Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim rastom

potrošačkih cena

Ostali troškovi

• Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi

održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)

(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)

• Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)

Osiguranje

• Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (naplaćuje

se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća osiguranje

za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna lica

Podsticaji

• Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u

vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,

uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking

mesta gratis

Jones Lang LaSalle offices

Belgrade Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 10 L, 11070 Novi Beograd Serbia + 381 11 7850 600 Contacts Andrew Peirson Managing Director Jones Lang LaSalle Serbia +381 11 785 0579 [email protected] www.joneslanglasalle.com

Jana Golubović

Junior Research Analyst

Jones Lang LaSalle

Serbia

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Belgrade City Report - Q4 2013

OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised

surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.

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Belgrade City Report · 2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q4 2013 Economy/Investment Economy...

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