8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

1/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Hot Spots Update

Hot Spots Update........................................................................................................................................................1

Hot Spots Update ........................................................................................................................... 1

**No Impact** ............................................................................................................................... 3No Middle East War...................................................................................................................................................3

No Middle East War ...................................................................................................................... 3

No Middle East War...................................................................................................................................................4

No Middle East War ......................................................................................................................

No North Korea war....................................................................................................................................................6

No Nort! "orea #ar ...................................................................................................................... $

North Korea Not Aggressive/Irratioal.......................................................................................................................!

Nort! "orea Not A%%ressi&e'Irratio(al ....................................................................................... )North Korea N"#es $ No I%pa&t..............................................................................................................................'

Nort! "orea( N+es , No Impact ................................................................................................-

No Idia/(a#ista War $ )eterre&e........................................................................................................................1*

No I(dia'a+ista( War , Deterre(ce ......................................................................................... 10

No Idia/(a#ista War $ )ialog"e Now...................................................................................................................11

No I(dia'a+ista( War , Dialo%e No# .................................................................................... 11

Idia/(a#ista War Not +a"se E,ti&tio.................................................................................................................1-

I(dia'a+ista( War Not /ase Eti(ctio( ................................................................................ 12

No +etral Asia +oli&t $ No Es&alatio................................................................................................................13

No /e(tral Asia /o(lict , No Escalatio( ..................................................................................13

No +hia War 0eeral...........................................................................................................................................14

No /!i(a War e(eral ............................................................................................................. 1

No +hia War $ aiwa Spe&ii&.............................................................................................................................12

No /!i(a War , Tai#a( Speciic ............................................................................................... 14

No "ssia War $ 0eeral..........................................................................................................................................16

No 5ssia War , e(eral ............................................................................................................1$

No N"&lear Es&alatio 0eeral................................................................................................................ ..............1!

No Nclear Escalatio( e(eral ................................................................................................ 1)

**6es Impact** ............................................................................................................................ 1-

A No 0reat (ower +oli&t...................................................................................................................................1'

AT: No reat o#er /o(lict ..................................................................................................... 1-

Middle East +oli&t I%pa&t.....................................................................................................................................15

1

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

2/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Middle East /o(lict Impact ....................................................................................................... 17

Asia +oli&t i#el7................................................................................................................................................-*

Asia( /o(lict 8i+el9 ................................................................................................................... 20

High is# o Idia/(a#ista N"&lear +oli&t..........................................................................................................-1

Hi%! 5is+ o I(dia'a+ista( Nclear /o(lict .......................................................................... 21

High is# o Idia/(a#ista N"&lear +oli&t..........................................................................................................--

Hi%! 5is+ o I(dia'a+ista( Nclear /o(lict .......................................................................... 22

-

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

3/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

**No Impact**

No Middle East War

No Middle East #ar , seli(terest pre&e(ts.

a7 Ta+e9!8 S"sa +oo#8 ad S"9ae Maloe78 :ellows at the ;roo#igs Istit"tio ad Seior :ellow or

:oreig (oli&7 at the Sa. he reasos are airl7 straightorward. :irst8 Middle

Easter( leaders8 li#e politi&ias ever7where8 are primaril9 i(terested i(oe thig selpreser&atio(. +o%%ittig or&es to

Ira> is a iheretl7 ris#7 propositio8 whi&h8 i the &oli&t wet

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

4/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No Middle East War

No ma=or Middle East co(lict , (o co(tr9 #ill ris+ escalatio(.

(atri Seale8 leadig ;ritish writer o the Middle East with a degree spe&iali9ig i the Middle East ro% C,ord8

April -28 200-8 BWill the Mideast 0o Up i :la%es this S"%%erFD http//www.%iddleeastolie.&o%/eglish/F

idG-2223T!ese are da(%erosl9 (settled times i( t!e Middle East. here are so %a7

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

5/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

2

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

6/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No Nort! "orea #ar

No ris+ o Nort! "orea( War , Deterre(ce c!ec+s

"a(% 03 )avid8 asso&iate proessor o gover%et ad ad"&t asso&iate proessor at the" S&hool o ;"siess8 )art%o"th +ollege8 Bhe Avoida

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

7/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Nort! "orea Not A%%ressi&e'Irratio(al

Nort! "orea (ot a%%ressi&e or irratio(al

Ca(do# 10 )o"g8 seior ellow at the +ato Istit"te. A or%er spe&ial assistat to (residet oald eaga8Bhe U.S.So"th Korea Allia&e C"tdated8 Ue&essar78 ad )agero"sD8 http//www.&ato.org/p"

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

8/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Nort! "orea( N+es , No Impact

Nort! "orea #o(t %et (ctio(i(% (+es a(9time soo(

=a%es ;o9(er8 (h.). i atioal se&"rit7 aairs ro% the Uiversit7 o Ala?. (n a serious crisis, how strong will the North9s determination to attack be&8 (n fact, it is unlikely to be

high. I it !as (clear #eapo(s t!is #ill

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

9/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

its depe(de(ce o( otsiders. So #old its lac+ o tre alliesthat share its worldview or have a huge stake in the

regime9s survival after it started a war. 1ost importantly,a( attac+ o the CK8 =apa8 or U.S. or&es#old pt t!e

re%imes sr&i&al at ris+ a(d t!is is a re%ime lo(% dedicated a

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

10/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No I(dia'a+ista( War , Deterre(ce

Deterre(ce pre&e(ts I(dia'a+ista( co(lict.

=oatha Tepperma(8 )ep"t7 Editor at Newswee# Maga9ie ad or%er )ep"t7 Maagig Editor o :oreig

Aairs8 Septe%

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

11/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No I(dia'a+ista( War , Dialo%e No#

No I(doa+ #arLpeace tal+s !a&e resol&ed t!eir diere(ces a(d dised t!e terrorist

sitatio(

Eli9a

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

12/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

I(dia'a+ista( War Not /ase Eti(ctio(

I(dia'a+ista( (clear #ar does(t case eti(ctio(.

;r"&e 8ie

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

13/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No /e(tral Asia /o(lict , No Escalatio(

No escalatio( , US'5ssia'/!i(a do(t #a(t co(lict i( /e(tral Asia.

Eli9a

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

14/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No /!i(a War e(eral

No /!i(a #ar , domestic eco(omic ocs.

8i(+hog(i8 proessor i the 0rad"ate Istit"te o Iteratioal Aairs ad Strategi& St"dies at a%#ag

Uiversit78 aiwa8 =a"ar7 -28 200)8 Iterview p"

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

15/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No /!i(a War , Tai#a( Speciic

/!i(a does(t #a(t a #ar o&er Tai#a( , attempti(% (o(&iole(t i(te%ratio(.

8i(+hog(i8 proessor i the 0rad"ate Istit"te o Iteratioal Aairs ad Strategi& St"dies at a%#ag

Uiversit78 aiwa8 =a"ar7 -28 200)8 Iterview p"

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

16/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No 5ssia War , e(eral

No s!ot o US5ssia #ar , or reaso(s.

eo Aro(8 )ire&tor o "ssia st"dies at the A%eri&a Eterprise Istit"te8 Septe%

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

17/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

No Nclear Escalatio( e(eral

Deescalatio( sol&e t!eir (clear #ar impact , (eit!er side #ill retaliate.

Mi&hael i(la(8 or%er )ire&tor o the )it&hle7 :o"datio ad (er%aet UderSe&retar7 o State i the UK8

20078 Bhi#ig a

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

18/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

**6es Impact**

AT: No reat o#er /o(lict

reat po#er co(lict still possi

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

19/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Middle East /o(lict Impact

Middle East co(lict cases %lo

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

20/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Asia( /o(lict 8i+el9

Asia( #ar (iBel9 li+el9 , t!eir e&ide(ce does(t assme c!a(%i(% strctral co(ditio(s.

H"gh W!ite8 isitig :ellow at the ow7 Istit"te or Iteratioal (oli&7 ad (roessor o Strategi& St"dies at the

A"stralia Natioal Uiversit78 )e&e%

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

21/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Hi%! 5is+ o I(dia'a+ista( Nclear /o(lict

8ar%e ris+ o I(dia'a+ista( (clear co(lict , deterre(ce postres (sta"isitio o "&lear &apa

8/13/2019 BBHS Hot Spots File

22/22

SDI 2010 Impacts

AT: Hot Spots

Hi%! 5is+ o I(dia'a+ista( Nclear /o(lict

I(dia'a+ista( co(lict %oes (clear , !i%! ris+ o miscalclatio( a(d escalatio(.

i&hard Weit@8 dire&tor o the +eter or (oliti&alMilitar7 Aal7sis ad a Seior :ellow at the H"dso Istit"te 8

="l7 1-8 20108 BSo"th Asias N"&lear War is#8D he )iplo%at8 http//thediplo%at.&o%/-*1*/*!/1-/so"thasia

E-'*55s"&learwarris#/4/@et eve settig aside the >"estio o "&lear weapos allig ito terrorist hads8 (clear competitio(