BBC MONITOR 06

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Chinese bloggers view US race

2016: The year in preview

Echoes of Paris

Iran election: a turning point?

JANUARY 2016

T H E W O R L D T H R O U G H I T S M E D I A

MONITOR#06

Welcome to the New Year edition of Monitor.

As we all know, trying to predict the future is a thankless task. However, the depth of knowledge of our analysts and journalists means we can look at what they have been covering in order to spot the trends and connect the dots.

In this edition, we bring a virtual tour of the world in 2016, focusing on what our specialists believe will shape the year ahead. From the continuing threat of the so-called Islamic State and its growing number of affiliated Jihadi groups to key elections in countries like Iran, which can define the success of its recent nuclear deal. Not to mention the US election campaign, viewed in this issue through the lens of Chinese social media.

BBC Monitoring provided insight to BBC World Service’s recent 100 Women Season, looking at how women are represented and portrayed in the world’s media. As our planning editor Ilona Vinogradova previews the year ahead, she also charts the rise of female political leaders around the world.

In the last edition, I mentioned our new Breakfast Briefings – a series of sessions created to share BBC Monitoring’s unique insight into major global themes through the world’s media. Our inaugural briefing saw Mina al-Lami, of our Jihadist media team, provide essential insight into the media strategy developed by IS. The presentation was followed by a panel discussion with Mark Frankel, Social Media Editor at BBC News, and Peter Busch of Kings College, London. Our next Breakfast Briefing, to be held in March, will focus on Russia. If you are interested, or would simply like to learn about any of Monitoring's work and products, please follow the contact details on this page.

Lucio Mesquita

What We Do

We bring you words as spoken in the media around the world, as well as the "why" and the "how". Our purpose is to help customers understand the ever changing environment in which they do business.

Contact Us

BBC Monitoring Caversham Park Reading RG4 8TZ United Kingdom +44 118 948 6338 [email protected]

BBC © 2015 All rights reserved. No publication or distribution of the whole or any part of this magazine is permitted without the written consent of BBC Monitoring.

Lucio Mesquita Director, BBC Monitoring

Who We Are

BBC Monitoring provides news and information from media sources around the world. Our round-the-clock monitoring of TV, radio, press, internet and news agencies is provided to the BBC and a range of customers – commercial clients, including media organisations, foreign governments, NGOs and universities, and the UK government.

BBC Monitoring is part of the BBC World Service Group. It employs 370 staff and a network of contributors based in Reading, near London, and offices in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the former Soviet Union.

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1 Inside Monitoring: a year in preview

Planning editor Ilona Vinogradova looks ahead to a year of tech-savvy jihadists, desperate migrants and powerful women

2 The Asian echoes of Paris

Analyst Tse Yin Lee weighs the odds of an “Islamic State” province in Southeast Asia

3 IS, Al-Qaeda, or ageing dictators?

Nairobi-based expert Mathias Muindi considers scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa

4 Battle for Bangladesh

Analyst Sajid Iqbal explores the tug of war between Al-Qaeda and “Islamic State” over this corner of South Asia

5 News from Elsewhere

Extraordinary reports from the world media selected by our blog editor Cassandra Cavallaro

6 Iranians vote – but who decides? Media analyst Arash Ahmadi asks whether Iran’s upcoming parliamentary election will strengthen or weaken the recent rapprochement with the West

7 Keeping NATO at bay

Ukraine expert Vitaliy Shevchenko tracks Russia’s pattern of frozen conflicts with ex-Soviet neighbours

8 “Sharp-tongued” Hillary, “clown” Trump

Chinese media analyst Kerry Allen reviews bloggers’ take on US presidential hopefuls

9 Northern chill

Is Kim Jong-un turning his back on North Korea’s closest ally in pursuit of a nuclear dream? Kerry Allen looks for answers in Chinese media reports

Featured Stories

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Life-changing events are usually those we don’t plan and aren’t prepared for. With this in mind, BBC Monitoring's Planning Editor Ilona Vinogradova examines themes and trends for 2016

2016: A year in preview

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The Paris attacks sparked a debate on whether Western losses get unfairly more coverage.

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Nobody predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union.

And who could have expected the 9/11 attacks when the Twin Towers of the World Trade Centre crumbled as we stared at our TV screens in disbelief.

2016 will mark the 25th anniversary since the USSR's dissolution and the 15th of the 9/11 attacks. One had a huge geopolitical impact, the other changed security policies in the Western hemisphere.

To this list of anniversaries we can add a gruesome attack that the world will commemorate in 2016. The Paris attacks in November 2015 left 130 people dead and more than 350 injured. But apart from shock and grief, they have also sparked a debate which started on social media that may change the approach to covering such tragedies.

Jihadist violence: reshaping media narrative Some argued that the Paris attacks were unfairly given more coverage than similar events in other places around the world.

Arab social media users were especially vocal in condemning the "double standards" and some even gloated: "taste our misery".

Conversely, a self-critical tone also emerged on Arab social media after the attacks that were claimed by the group calling itself Islamic State (IS, aka ISIS/ISIL).

Some Muslims argued that IS’s understanding of Islamic teachings is based on interpretations of Islam which they said are found in modern-day Islamic history books.

"IS didn’t write this heritage, it found and applied it," one user said on Twitter and his view was echoed by many others.

The lack of consensus on how to deal with IS, stop the war in Syria and prevent radicalisation will only further polarise the West and the East, Sunnis and Shia on social media and in real life, some experts predict.

New apps, new voicesIf the Paris attacks were IS’s biggest "success" on the ground in 2015, on social media it was a shift from Twitter, where accounts have repeatedly been shut down over the past year, to the secure mobile messaging app Telegram.

IS and other jihadist groups are successfully exploiting new functionality introduced by the app in September 2015. It allows users to broadcast their messages to an unlimited number of members via their own Telegram "channel".

Telegram has now started to crack down on propaganda from IS, but the group will only increase its presence there in 2016, experts predict.

A raft of other Islamist groups have also launched channels on Telegram and are seeking new apps and new functionalities for their propaganda.

So how will internet users respond to IS online propaganda?

By trolling, hashtag hijacking and trying to find new ways to beat terror with humour.

The international hactivist group Anonymous recently announced a declaration of war on IS and more social media users have followed suit.

In November 2015 members of bulletin board 4chan superimposed duck heads onto images of IS fighters, sparking a craze that spread to Twitter and Facebook. Expect more of these in 2016.

A raft of other Islamist groups have also launched channels on Telegram and are seeking new apps and new functionalities for their propaganda

Hactivist group Anonymous has defied IS with a “declaration of war” post on social media. Other forums and boards like 4chan have mocked the militants.

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Rise of the female leaderIn 2016 another prominent phrase will be "female president". In Peru, Philippines, Taiwan and the US, a woman – sometimes even more than one – will run for office.

In January Taiwan could become the next in a series of Asian nations to elect a female leader, following Thailand, Myanmar and South Korea. There are currently 26 female world leaders (only 7 %). Their average age is 62.

But the biggest question is: Will Hillary win? And if she does, will it encourage more women around the world to follow this path? What difference can she make?

Migration: crisis or opportunity? Migration will remain one of the biggest news stories in 2016.

After Paris and new threats from IS of further attacks inside Europe, control of the borders will become a sensitive issue and the refugee crisis a more pressing problem.

Turkey remains the pivotal country. President Erdogan and European leaders have struck a deal to try to control the flow of migrants to Europe. Under the deal, Turkey will receive €3bn (£2.1bn) and political concessions in return for securing its borders and keeping refugees in the country.

Countries will become increasingly selective towards migrant workers, predicts the International Organisation of Migration. Policies to attract highly skilled migrants only will be favoured.

Ilona Vinogradova is BBC Monitoring's Planning Editor. She is currently working on a multimedia project, A World Without Migration, which will be part of the next pan-BBC season on identity.

Countries will become increasingly selective towards migrant workers, predicts the International Organisation of Migration

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Turkey has received additional funding from the EU to manage the influx of refugees from Syria.

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But the biggest question is: Will Hillary win? And if she does, will it encourage more women around the world to follow this path? What difference can she make?

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A united militant front under the so-called Islamic State poses a serious threat to peace and stability in Southeast Asia, writes analyst Tse Yin Lee

Fellow travellers: Islamic State’s East Asian reach

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Indonesian anti-terror troops train in North Sumatra to fight the spread of homegrown Islamic militancy.

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When Islamic State (IS) gunmen attacked in Paris in November, the shockwaves reached East Asia.

The region hasn’t been on the radar of the jihadi group directly, but IS has enough support to carry out similar attacks.

Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have warned their citizens to anticipate attacks by jihadist groups.

It’s a telling sign of the worry in the region about the influence of Islamic State, which controls large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq.

Islamic State may not have a direct presence in the region, but several existing militant groups have pledged their loyalty.

Although there is little risk of such groups seizing and governing territory the way IS has in Syria and Iraq, the risk of attacks on civilians appears to be increasing.

Uniting under IS?Militants in the region have always travelled freely between Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and groups frequently work together.

But Islamic State appears to be acting as a binding force.

Some 30 groups in the region are believed to have pledged an oath of loyalty to IS.

While IS has acknowledged some oaths, it has not recognised Southeast Asia as an official province the way it has with other regions.

On 14 November Malaysian police warned that militants in the southern Philippines have planned to form an official IS regional faction to unite the most high-profile group there, Abu Sayyaf, with others.

The police said Malaysian national and former lecturer Mahmud Ahmad, also known as Abu Handzalah, was believed to be actively training with Abu Sayyaf and trying to travel to Syria to swear allegiance to the group's leader, Abu Bakar al-Baghdadi, in person.

Porous bordersSoutheast Asia's porous borders make it difficult for authorities to control movement in and out of the region.

Indonesia's National Anti-Terrorism Agency chief Saud Usman Nasution warned in September that he believed IS was working with smugglers to bring foreign fighters from Malaysia to Poso, in Indonesia’s Central Sulawesi.

"There is information that in Malaysia there are thousands, a lot of foreign terrorist fighters there who are about to be deployed – we don't know where to – under the IS network," he said.

Four Turkish nationals were arrested in Poso in 2014.

There have also been reports of Syrian fighters in the southern Philippines meeting local jihadi groups, and Malaysia has arrested foreign nationals from Syria, Iraq, Kosovo and Indonesia in its crackdown on suspected IS sympathisers this year.

Militants in the region have always travelled freely between Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, and groups frequently work together

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The Paris attacks received front-page coverage in the region, where some 30 militant groups have reportedly pledged loyalty to the “Islamic state”.

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Police called for calm after the leak, saying the information might not be true though they were investigating the threat.

Targets of planned violence so far in Malaysia have included bars, clubs and a brewery, as well as the Saudi and Qatar embassies. Malaysia's defence minister has said he believes the country's top leaders were kidnap targets.

There are fears other parts of Southeast Asia are under threat. Singapore, a non-Muslim country in the middle of the Malay archipelago, more noticeably wealthy and with a higher concentration of international firms, is an obvious target.

In Thailand, violence from a southern Muslim separatist movement tends to be very local but authorities have not ruled out the potential for IS to exert an influence. IS has also targeted Burma's marginalised Rohingya community for recruitment in its social media messages this year.

Home threatIt is not just foreign fighters, but locals returning from the Middle East with battle experience and weapons expertise that raise concerns.

Homegrown militants formed the bulk of more than 140 people arrested by Malaysian authorities over the past two years for links to IS.

In Indonesia, it is not clear how many people have been arrested for such offences but police in August detained five over what they said was a plot to bomb a police station and churches in central Java. The planned attack was said to be the first directed by IS in Indonesia, and was apparently organised by an Indonesian based in Syria.

On 16 November, a leaked police memo in Malaysia caused a stir, saying it believed members of IS, Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front had agreed to deploy suicide bombers trained in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan to Kuala Lumpur and Sabah.

Tse Yin Lee is a media analyst specialising in Southeast Asia and global social networks.Some 30 groups in the region are

believed to have pledged an oath of loyalty to IS. While IS has acknowledged some oaths, it has not recognized Southeast Asia as an official province the way it has with other regions

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Local agenda: the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, pictured celebrating a peace deal with the Philippines government, is one of the largest Muslim separatist groups in the region buoyed by the rise of IS.

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Targets of planned violence so far in Malaysia have included bars, clubs and a brewery, as well as the Saudi and Qatar embassies

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The Jalan Alor food street in central Kuala Lumpur, popular with both locals and foreign tourists, is an obvious target for attacks.

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IS, Al-Qaeda, or ageing dictators: who rules in Africa?

Global jihadist groups like the so-called Islamic State remain a major threat to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2016 as the region also grapples with several potentially messy political transitions, writes Africa analyst Mathias Muindi

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A recent suicide raid by the Al-Shabab militant group destroyed a military intelligence base in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.

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The battle for supremacy between Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda in the Sahel and East Africa is likely to be the region’s biggest security threat in 2016.

Defections and clashes between these groups in Africa are a real possibility in 2016.

Al-Qaeda has the upper hand in Africa and will remain dominant as its affiliates seek to crush emerging IS sympathisers.

Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Murabitoun which is active in the Sahel has rejected IS, while Somalia's Al-Shabab has already launched a bloody crackdown on pro-IS dissidents.

Even though Boko Haram pledged allegiance to IS in March, the Nigerian jihadists remain focused on local issues.

It is possible that as IS faces pressure in the Middle East and Europe; it could intensify its recruitment and propaganda efforts in the continent and inevitably clash with Al-Qaeda.

Most African states are more frightened by the prospect of IS emergence in their territories.

Local grievances will also continue to provide breeding grounds for new jihadist recruits.

The US – and to some extent France – will continue to be drawn further into the continent's fight against terrorism.

Risky transitionsNumerous elections are due in 2016 and some will pass peacefully.

However, respect for presidential term limits – introduced to deter authoritarianism – is diminishing and many leaders have, or are trying, to extend their terms.

This has prompted public protests and in some cases messy transitions. In October 2014, angry protesters ousted Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore over the issue.

Similar disputes are going on in Burundi, Rwanda, DR Congo and the Republic of Congo, guaranteeing acrimony and possible violence in the coming year.

Where term limits have already been removed, repression could deepen, especially since beneficiaries of extended tenures tend to be ageing leaders.

In states with weak or opaque transitional bodies including Angola, Uganda, Cameroon, Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Chad and Equatorial Guinea, the military would be a key player in determining the outcome.

Most African states are more frightened by the prospect of IS emergence in their territories

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Ethiopian demonstrators mourn Christians killed by Islamic State militants in Addis Ababa.

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Chinese economic woesDeclining international commodity prices and China's slowing growth will negatively affect economies which rely on extractive industries.

South African states made budgets on the assumption that commodity prices would remain high and that China's economy would continue to rely on exports from the continent. These resources helped fuel China's economic boom and turned Beijing into Africa's largest trading partner in 2009.

Structural reforms by China will see a reduction of imports from Africa and the financial support from Beijing – mainly for infrastructure – to African states.

Then there are the functionally failed states of Somalia and Central African Republic, both due to elect new leaders in 2016. The near impotence of state authority in these states guarantees the continuation of the messy status quo.

Kenya will witness the laying down of roots for chaos in polls due in 2017. Ethnically based political mobilisation is under way and could escalate in 2016, signalling tense elections and a risk of violence in 2017.

Many countries due to hold elections in 2016 are allies of the West – mainly for economic or geostrategic reasons – meaning there will be muted reprimand of the offenders.

Mathias Muindi edits weekly security roundups for East, West, North and Central Africa, available from BBC Monitoring by subscription.

Chinese investment in Africa has already fallen by more than 40 per cent to 1.2bn dollars since January 2015, mainly due to the declining demand for commodities. Europe and the US are economically fragile and unlikely to fill the gap left by China.

Corruption is also prevalent in resource-dependent African states which lack economic diversification.

Consequently, the risk of social unrest, especially in countries with strong labour movements, or weak state institutions, remains high. Some of these commodity-rich countries are also governed by authoritarian regimes that could become more repressive.

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Spent munitions dot the ground at an abandoned oil treatment facility in South Sudan.

The 2017 presidential and parliamentary elections in Kenya are set to be as tense as they were in 2007.

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Declining international commodity prices and China's slowing growth will negatively affect economies which rely on extractive industries

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Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterates China's commitment to Africa at a forum in Johannesburg: investments have almost halved in the last year.

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The vision of Bangladesh as a country that welcomes free thought and foreigners is under brutal attack from jihadi affiliates, writes South Asia analyst Sajid Iqbal

Dream killers

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Avijit Roy, a US blogger of Bangladeshi origin, was hacked to death in Dhaka in March 2015. The local branch of Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack.

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Avijit Roy was returning home from a book fair in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka when unidentified men fatally attacked him one evening in February 2015.

He had fought for freedom of speech through his writing. In the following months, four more bloggers were hacked to death.

Bloggers Washiqur Rehman, Ananta Bijoy Das, Niloy Neel and secular publisher Faisal Arefin Dipon were killed after receiving open threats from jihadist groups.

They all died for their vision of Bangladesh as a country that allows voices reflecting all shades of opinion, including atheism.

But Al-Qaeda’s South Asia branch had other ideas. It claimed responsibility for the killings and threatened similar attacks on others who promote atheism and free speech.

Meanwhile, a new player entered the jihadi arena in Bangladesh.

The so-called Islamic State (IS) militant group wants to expand its footprint in South Asia, and Bangladesh appears to be at the centre of its plans.

IS announced the appointment of a leader for its Bangladesh operations in its online magazine Dabiq on 18 November.

The magazine published a picture of Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) founder Abdul Rehman, but offered little detail of its planned expansion.

Jihadi groups step up rivalry Many security experts believe that Bangladesh had it coming.

In August 2005, the JMB, a local Salafist militant group and now the possible affiliate of IS, detonated approximately 460 bombs at 300 locations in 63 of the 64 districts in Bangladesh.

A decade later, jihadist propaganda is easily found online.

Al-Qaeda’s South Asia chief Maulana Asim Umar wrote an article entitled "From France to Bengal: Chasing blasphemers", in the June 2015 issue of pro-Al-Qaeda magazine Nawa-e-Afghan Jihad, giving an indication of the group’s strategy.

The so-called Islamic State wants to expand its footprint in South Asia, and Bangladesh appears to be at the centre of its plans

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The wife of murdered blogger Avijit Roy, Rafida Ahmed Banna, was injured in the same attack.

Many in Bangladesh saw the murder of secular bloggers such as Niloy Neel, above, as an attack on basic freedoms.

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Meanwhile, IS has been active, too. It claimed a bomb attack on a Shia shrine in Dhaka in October.

One person was killed and at least 80 injured when three homemade devices were detonated amid thousands of worshippers at the annual Ashura procession on 24 October in Dhaka.

IS also took responsibility for the killings of foreigners.

Italian aid worker Cesare Tavella was shot by gunmen in September.

Sajid Iqbal specialises in Urdu-language media.

They all died for their vision of Bangladesh as a country that allows voices reflecting all shades of opinion, including atheism

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Foreign visitors like the Italian Cesare Tavella have been targeted in attacks claimed by IS affiliates.

Japanese national Kunio Hoshi, a Muslim convert shot dead by a local IS militant, was buried in

Islamic tradition in Rangpur district where he had worked on a farming project.

Shortly after, Japanese national Kunio Hoshi was killed in Rangpur district, 210 miles north of Dhaka.

Analysts say the rivalry between the two jihadi groups is expected to escalate in Bangladesh in 2016, leaving the country prone to more militant attacks.

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The News from Elsewhere blog is a partnership between the BBC News Magazine and BBC Monitoring. It aims to provide readers with an insight into life in other countries through their media, using short posts to illustrate the differences between cultures.

It also highlights unusual stories being reported around the globe, spots trends in social media, examines the use of propaganda by governments and others, and attempts to see events through the eyes of foreign reporters.

The blog is based on contributions from BBC Monitoring journalists around the world, which are curated by our multimedia producer Cassandra Cavallaro. In addition to BBC Monitoring she has worked in a number of BBC newsrooms, bringing stories to a variety of UK and global audiences.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/news_from_elsewhere

Use #NewsfromElsewhere to stay up-to-date with our reports via Twitter.

News From Elsewhere

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Ayumu Goromaru's pre-kick stance has been seen somewhere before.

The advert shows people trapped inside cigarette packets, watching themselves buying tobacco products.

Japan: Rugby fans flock to Buddha statueRugby fans have been flocking to a Buddhist temple in central Japan to see a statue which they think resembles one of their sporting heroes.

The 3m-high figure, at Seki Zenkoji Temple in Gifu Prefecture, has its hands held together with both index fingers pointing to the sky – a pose also favoured by Japan's star full-back Ayumu Goromaru in the moments before a kick attempt. The temple's master, Shunkai Sato, says visitor numbers have tripled since October, when the Rugby World Cup reached its peak, the Kyodo news agency reports. The tournament saw Japan win three of their four group games, including an astonishing win against South Africa. The shock result made a household name of Goromaru, who scored 24 of Japan's 34 points in the match.

Earlier this month, an 18-strong high school rugby team made the trip to the shrine to pray for success in an forthcoming tournament. "I hope to make accurate kicks, just like Goromaru," one player told The Asahi Shimbun. The website points out that while many Buddhist statues often have their hands together, the index finger pose is not common. The figure is thought to have originated in China 500 years ago, and has been at the temple for a century.

Smokers in South Korea are protesting against a hard-hitting new government advert which equates buying cigarettes with buying disease, it's reported.

The health ministry's 44-second video shows people approaching a cigarette kiosk, but instead of requesting a particular brand they ask the assistant to give them a serious health problem, The Korea Times reports. "Give me a lung cancer," one person says, before the shop assistant hands them a pack of cigarettes. The advert has been running as part of the "Smoking is a Disease" campaign. But it has riled the country's largest smokers' group, an online community called I Love Smoking, which has previously challenged government policies in court.

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"The ministry's video has clearly crossed the line," the group says in a statement, noting that the government earns a huge amount of tax revenue from tobacco products. "If smoking is a disease, drinking is a disease because it causes liver problems and eating fast food is also a disease as it brings about obesity," it says. "It is a jump of logic and discriminates against smokers." The group wants the advert to be pulled, and is planning a protest in front of the Ministry of Health. It's also calling on the Korea Communications Standards Commission to intervene.

The current advert was launched after an earlier spot was deemed "not strong enough", one ministry official told the Korea Herald earlier this month, adding that the new campaign could prove "painful" for some viewers. It's the latest in a string of measures to try to dissuade people from lighting up, in a country where about 44% of men are smokers. In January 2015, the price of cigarettes was almost doubled, and a smoking ban was extended to cover all eateries.

S Korea: Health ministry advert angers smokers' group


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Winners of a weight loss programme in Siberia will get “the wealth of the region: top-grade coal” to keep them warm.

Children in car boots is "an illegal and most inhumane practice", according to Donald Foster.

Russia: Mining region rewards weight loss with coalA major Russian mining region is launching a television show to help people lose weight – with participants earning lumps of coal as a reward, it's reported.

The programme, which will be broadcast on a local channel in Siberia's coal-rich Kemerovo region, is a part of the regional government's efforts to raise awareness over the problem of obesity. Governor Aman Tuleyev says he borrowed the idea from the United Arab Emirates, the Business FM radio station reports. "There, people get rewarded in gold for getting slimmer. We will also pay – not in gold coins, but in coal," he says. Dubai launched the "Your Weight in Gold" scheme in 2013, offering a gram of the precious metal for every kilogram in weight a person loses.

Participants in the Kemerovo programme will shed the pounds through sports activities and by trying various diets, according to the head of the region's press service. "In return they will get the wealth of the region – top-grade, high-calorie coal," Anton Gorelkin says. As in Dubai, people will be rewarded for every kilogram of weight lost, although the amount of coal they'll be given hasn't yet been decided. But Mr Gorelkin says there certainly won't be any shortage: "As there is plenty of coal in the world market, I believe there will be no problem with the prize."

Jamaica's Transport Authority has issued a stern warning to the island's taxi drivers to stop carrying children in the boots of their vehicles.

The body's managing director, Donald Foster, says that overloaded taxis with children riding in the boot – or trunk – is an "illegal and most inhumane practice" which must cease, the Jamaica Observer reports. "Any operator found to be violating the rights of passengers to a safe and comfortable ride by overloading the vehicles will be prosecuted," Mr Foster warns. Not only is it a road traffic offence, but possibly one of child cruelty as well, he says.

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While island taxi operators have conceded that the practice is wrong, the director of one trade association describes it as an "age-old problem" in rural areas and not as widespread as the Transport Authority believes. "I would not put so much pressure on that issue, because I know the situation in those areas," Egerton Newman, head of the Jamaica Association of Transport Owners and Operators, tells the paper.

Mr Newman says that overloading cars with school pupils in the boot stems from drivers working in agricultural regions of Jamaica, where local transport provision may be one taxi between a community of 40 houses. Many are unlicensed cabs and aren't the type of car that can fit students in the back anyway, he suggests. Nonetheless, Mr Newman echoed the Transport Authority's call for car and minibus drivers to stop overloading their vehicles before lives are lost.

Jamaica: Taxi drivers warned over children in the boot

Iran: testing moderate gains Iran’s parliamentary poll in February will be a test of President Hassan Rouhani’s rapprochement with the West, but is it the voters who decide? Media analyst Arash Ahmadi explains how an election outcome is influenced

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The moderate President Hassan Rouhani has popular support, but will the new parliament aid or hinder his course?

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Reformists, led by former President Mohammad Khatami, are hoping to file a joint list with Rouhani’s moderates against the dominant conservative camp.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani emerged as a “hero” for many after his team clinched a long-awaited nuclear deal with Western powers in July 2015.

A few months on, his political credentials will be tested again as the country elects a new parliament (Majlis) in February.

Stakes are particularly high because Iranians will also elect the Assembly of Experts, which is the leadership watchdog.

These are the first elections to be held under the moderate government of President Rouhani and are largely seen as an indicator of his domestic popularity.

Iranians are eager to interact with the West, they want their economy do well after sanctions are lifted and also expect a more open society and a freer media environment.

Voters will remember this when they head to cast their ballot in February.

Key playersPre-election jockeying among the various factions indicates there are four general groups vying for power in both bodies.

There are reformists who came to the fore during former President Mohammad Khatami's administration (1997-2005) and then there are moderates who back Rouhani.

Traditional pragmatic conservatives and ultra conservatives have also thrown their hats into the political ring.

Among these factions, the reformists and moderates are more organised. Many among them hope to reach a consensus and offer a unified list of candidates for the Majlis.

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First female ambassador

Few women have ever served in Iran’s governing bodies. The all-powerful Guardian Council blocked all women candidates from standing in the last election. But, in a signal of President Rouhani’s commitment to a moderate path, a woman ambassador has joined the diplomatic corps for the first time since the 1979 revolution.

Marziyeh Afkham, appointed ambassador to Malaysia on 28 October, began her career at the Foreign Ministry 33 years ago at the age of 20.

According to the Foreign Ministry's website, she holds a bachelor's degree in English and an MA in regional research.

Afkham held a number of senior posts at the ministry, mostly in press and public affairs.

She became the first female Foreign Ministry spokesperson in the history of the Islamic Republic after Rouhani’s victory in the 2013 presidential election.

According to media reports, Afkham married a fellow diplomat in February 2014.

Iran’s only other and first ever female envoy was Mehrangiz Dolatshahi, appointed under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. She was ambassador to Denmark between 1976 and 1979.


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ELECTED INSTITUTIONS UNELECTED INSTITUTIONS

KEY: Directly elected Appointed or approved Vets candidates

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Who has the power?

Iran's complex and unusual political system combines elements of a modern Islamic theocracy with democracy. A network of unelected institutions controlled by the highly powerful conservative Supreme Leader is countered by a president and parliament elected by the people.

Parliament (Majlis) is elected by popular vote every four years. The 290-member parliament has the power to introduce and pass laws, as well as to summon and impeach ministers or the president. However, all Majlis bills have to be approved by the conservative Guardian Council.

The Assembly of Experts appoints and, if necessary, removes the Supreme Leader. Direct elections for the 86 members of the current assembly are held every eight years. Only clerics can join the assembly and candidates for election are vetted by the Guardian Council. It is currently controlled by conservatives.

The Guardian Council is the most influential body in Iran, currently controlled by conservatives. The council has to approve all bills passed by parliament and has the power to veto them if it considers them inconsistent with the constitution and Islamic law. The council can also bar candidates from standing in elections to parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts. It consists of six theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader and six jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament.

The president is elected for four years and can serve no more than two consecutive terms. The constitution describes him as the second-highest ranking official in the country after the Supreme Leader. He heads the executive branch of power and is responsible for ensuring the constitution is implemented.

The Supreme Leader is de facto the ruler of Iran. The Supreme Leader appoints the head of the judiciary, members of the Guardian Council and the head of the state broadcaster. It is the Supreme Leader and not the president who controls the armed forces and makes decisions on security, defence and major foreign policy issues.

Periodic tension between the office of the Leader and the office of the president reflects the deeper divisions between religious rule and the democratic aspirations of many Iranians.

Others

The cabinet (Council of Ministers) is chosen by the president and must be approved by parliament.

The judiciary appoints the lay members of the Guardian Council and ensures Islamic laws are enforced. The head of the judiciary reports to the Supreme Leader.

The Expediency Council is an advisory body for the Leader which adjudicates disputes over legislation between the Guardian Council and the presidency. It is appointed by the Supreme Leader and has delegated powers to supervise all branches of government. Its members are prominent religious, social and political leaders and include the president, the speaker of parliament and the head of the judiciary.

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Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, pictured at a session of the Assembly of Experts, decides security, defence and foreign policy.

Arash Ahmadi is an Iranian media analyst. BBC Monitoring keeps a constant watch on Iran’s broadcast, web and print media with teams deployed in the UK, Delhi and the Caucasus.

VettingIt won't be plain sailing for the reformists, even if they manage to reach a deal with the moderates. All election candidates have to pass an extensive vetting procedure by the Guardian Council, the ultrapowerful body that rules on constitutional matters and is controlled by conservatives.

The Guardian Council has a track record of barring reformists and moderates from standing in elections. For example, the Guardian Council even barred the veteran Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani from standing in the 2013 presidential poll.

This is not the only problem for the reformists/moderates. Hardliners within the establishment have already stepped up pressure, breaking up reformists' election meetings in a number of towns and cities.

And in early November, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps began a crackdown on a number of media and political activists. The detainees were accused of paving the way for "US infiltration" in the country.

But if the reformists/moderates unite and manage to overcome these formidable hurdles, a major shift in Iran's political direction appears to be in the offing with Rouhani consolidating his grip on power.

The system The 290-member parliament is elected every four years. In the absence of formal political parties, each faction presents a list of candidates to the electorate, but any individual can be included in more than one list. Some seats are reserved for religious minorities.

The current Majlis is controlled by the conservatives ("Principle-ists"). One newspaper puts the total number of conservative MPs at 199 and reformists at 47. At least 41 members have not pledged their loyalty to any bloc.

The Assembly of Experts is also dominated by conservatives. Charged with supervising, dismissing and electing the supreme leader, members are elected by direct public vote for an eight-year term. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is 76, so the next assembly will be in place until 2024 when Khamenei would be 84.

The issue of which group holds sway in the Assembly of Experts and the selection of the next leader is, therefore, highly significant in a country where factionalism plays a key role in setting the political landscape.

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These are the first elections to be held under the moderate government of President Rouhani and are largely seen as an indicator of his popularity in the country

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Fighting in eastern Ukraine has all but stopped, and the question now is what happens next. The history of conflict in the former Soviet republics may hold the answer, writes Ukraine analyst Vitaliy Shevchenko

The making of a frozen conflict

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The nearly two-year battle between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels for control of eastern Ukraine has left these once prosperous industrial regions in ruins.

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Ukrainians try e-democracy

Ukrainians can now petition their leaders online via a new tool launched on the websites of the president, parliament and Kiev city council.

But there is scepticism about the effectiveness of this new channel of communication.

Only several dozen out of 15,000 petitions addressed to President Petro Poroshenko so far have gathered the required 25,000 signatures for them to be considered.

More than half of these are suggestions on how to fight political corruption, such as proposals to abolish immunity from prosecution or to rule out bail for those charged.

Five requests considered by Poroshenko concern the economy. Another five ask for political appointments. One suggests appointing former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili as Ukraine’s prime minister while another seeks to dispatch the glamorous and controversial ex-premier Yuliya Tymoshenko as ambassador somewhere far, far away.

One TV channel has described the e-petitions as a "graveyard for crazy ideas". They include a proposal to grow marijuana in peat bogs near Kiev, a request to broadcast "SpongeBob Square Pants" on national public television, as well as a suggestion that anyone creating an online petition should take an IQ test first.

Commentators are divided as to whether e-petitions are effective. One described them as "shouting into a gag, but in a democratic way".

Legally, petitions are not binding and official responses typically refer petitioners to other government offices.

There are striking similarities between the long-running Ukraine crisis and the separatist wars in Georgia and Moldova years ago. They suggest that it is likely to become another "frozen conflict", and that the separatist areas of eastern Ukraine will join the Russia-backed self-styled statelets of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (both in Georgia) and the Dniester region in Moldova.

In all three countries – Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova – pro-Russian insurgents battled governments that favoured closer ties with the West. Local separatists were helped by fighters and, allegedly, weaponry from Russia.

President Putin's surprise offensive in Syria suggests that his army's focus has shifted away from Ukraine. But if his ultimate objective is indeed to keep Ukraine in Russia's fold, history shows that military force may no longer be required.

The patternThe pattern underlying separatist conflicts in the former USSR is always the same: fears that the pro-Russian minority will be oppressed by the central government are followed by fighting and an influx of armed men from Russia, as Moscow rejects claims that it is supporting the rebels.

Just as in eastern Ukraine, the devastation of civilian areas in the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia in 2008 was used by the Russian media to justify the rebels' cause. The central government, however, pointed the finger at Russia.

Throughout the conflict, Russia denied allegations that its troops backed the separatists against Georgia, insisting that they were in South Ossetia on a purely peacekeeping mission. But after the hostilities were over, President Putin told a news conference Russia had trained the rebels and helped them with equipment.

Shortly after the annexation of Crimea, President Putin denied Russian troops' involvement, but then admitted it on TV a little more than a month later.

One result which the separatist insurrections did achieve was to thwart the central governments' ambitions of rapid integration with the West

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In the Moldova conflict in 1992, pro-Russian rebels on the eastern bank of the Dniester river formed a separatist republic, now known as the disputed region of Transdniestria.


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What's to comeSo what do these similarities mean for eastern Ukraine's future?

After military hostilities ceased in the secessionist regions of Georgia and Moldova, none of them received wide international recognition. Neither did they return to central government control, becoming "frozen conflicts".

This did little to improve the livelihood of local residents, and poverty remains widespread in the breakaway regions.

One result which the separatist insurrections did achieve was to thwart the central governments' ambitions of rapid integration with the West. Neither Georgia nor Moldova is likely to join NATO or the EU any time soon.

Fighting in eastern Ukraine may have ceased for now, but the crisis will sap the country's resources for years to come, distracting the government from building a functional democracy.

The peopleThere are also similarities between some of the main forces at play in the separatist crises in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. All three involved thousands of volunteer militants from Russia. Key among them were former members of the Russian military and Cossacks – militaristic conservative groups loyal to the Kremlin.

Nikolay Kozitsyn, the leader of the Russian Don Cossacks, fought alongside separatists in Moldova's breakaway Dniester region, then in Georgia and later in eastern Ukraine.

Similarly, Vladimir Antyufeyev, who is best known as the long-serving state security minister in Dniester, also worked for self-styled security services in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and most recently in Donetsk.

Kozitsyn and Antyufeyev are among the key separatist figures in eastern Ukraine who suddenly left the region, fuelling speculation that Moscow is in a position to pull the strings to install more pliable leaders.

Many of the top leaders in the separatist republics hail from Russia or are former Russian officials. One Russian commentator, Yulia Latynina, remarked that the key figures in the self-styled South Ossetian government should not be described as "Ossetian separatists" because so many of them are actually from Russia.

Vitaliy Shevchenko joined BBC Monitoring in our Kiev office and currently works at our UK headquarters. He is a frequent contributor to BBC News, specialising in Ukraine and Russia.

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Russia and Georgia went to war in 2008 over the separatist region of South Ossetia. Most rebel leaders there hailed from Russia, just like in the conflict regions in Moldova and Ukraine.

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The pattern underlying separatist conflicts in the former USSR is always the same: fears that the pro-Russian minority will be oppressed by the central government are followed by fighting and an influx of armed men from Russia, as Moscow rejects claims that it is supporting the rebels

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Soviet symbols abound in the separatist “Donetsk republic”.

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Chinese bloggers have thrown themselves into the US presidential campaign with considerable enthusiasm, rating nomination seekers according to their socialist agenda and policy views on China, media analyst Kerry Allen writes

Chinese bloggers weigh in on US presidential race

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China credits its strong relations with the United States to personal chemistry between the two presidents.

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Thousands on the popular microblog Sina Weibo have already used the hashtag #2016USElection, mainly to talk about Democratic aspirants Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, and Republicans Ben Carson and Donald Trump.

Although Clinton has long been a favourite with Chinese social media users, many hope that Sanders will become president because of his socialist values.

The nomination is important to China, which has long-pinned strong Sino-US relations on President Xi Jinping's personal relationship with his US counterpart Barack Obama.

Hillary’s fansClinton has long been popular with Chinese bloggers and is often referred to colloquially as simply "Hillary".

It is widely felt that she is the favourite to win, with many saying that the global political spectrum appears to be changing. "In 2016, the world's key phrase will become 'female president'," said one user. "South Korea's Park Geun-hye, Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen, Germany's Angela Merkel, the United States' Hillary."

Clinton had a fan club with more than 350,000 followers in July, however the club since appears to have been suspended by Sina Weibo. "Sharp-tongued Hillary" and "word warlock" – as she has been described in the country’s press – appears to have lost touch with her Chinese fans.

This was evident when she provoked anger by saying "President Obama and I were hunting the Chinese" during a Democratic presidential debate in October.

The comment referred to a 2009 climate change conference at which she and Obama “crashed” a secret meeting between China and India.

Regional daily Yangcheng Evening News said that she "stunned the world". "Is this woman trying to provoke a third world war?" asked blogger Dudu Zhong.

Clinton's comment caused so much surprise because her remarks had often carried favour with the Chinese media.

Sanders: left-leaningAlthough he has had a shorter term media presence than Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders has made a strong impact with the Chinese public, particularly because of his socialist views.

Posts by verified media accounts have reflected his political stance much more strongly than any other candidate. On 2 November, Sina News Video shared a bilingual video of his campaign advertisement, saying that he is pushing for "real change” as "the first socialist senator in American history".

"It is a pity that he is overshadowed by Hillary being in the limelight," said blogger Daniel Seu. "Sanders' political philosophy is very much admired, especially by tough Wall Street people."

"Let the powerful US imperial state try socialism," said another user, agreeing that Sanders' views resonate strongly with the Chinese public.

In spite of his growing popularity, many social media users feel that his liberal views will not secure him the overall democratic vote.

"He is too left-leaning, the possibility is low," said CK-Taskrabbit.

Another user agreed. "He will be a showstopper; but he does not represent mainstream public opinion."

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Hillary Clinton’s fan club on Sina Weibo has been losing members. Bernie Sanders: “the first socialist senator”.

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Trump: “insulting” Business tycoon Donald Trump has had a highly visible presence in the Chinese media for years. His TV show The Apprentice is popular via online video streaming services, and his daughter, Ivanka Trump, has an active presence on Sina Weibo, with more than 13,000 followers.

Despite this, he is not well-liked by the Chinese public, some of whom openly call him an idiot. This is hardly surprising after Trump famously said in July that if he were elected, "Oh would China be in trouble. The poor Chinese."

He also recently accused China of "robbing Americans of billions of dollars of capital and millions of jobs" in a Wall Street Journal editorial.

"Trump insults Asians publicly," said Mr Xiao An on Ivanka Trump's Weibo page. "And you still try to make money from us? Get the hell out of our country! Shame on you!"

Carson: “conservative Christian”Like Sanders, retired American neurosurgeon Carson has had short-term resonance with the Chinese public; but he has made a strong impact.

China's official news agency Xinhua said in November that he was "for the majority of voters still an unfamiliar face" but emphasised his achievements as a neurosurgeon, "separating brain-conjoined twins in 1987". Along with other media outlets, Xinhua has predominantly shared pictures of him dressed in medical garb.

North America Sina called Carson on 6 November "Clinton's most powerful opponent, making Hillary nervous".

This account has also promoted the use of a hashtag for Carson: #InspirationalDrCarson.

While many approve of his former profession, there have been some who have found his strong Christian beliefs a much more notable factor.

One overseas Chinese user Xianhua Zhang Luo appeared to mock the candidate, sharing a drawing of "Ben Carson and God together," along with a laughing emoticon. User jojo250 said that Carson's Christian views were "extreme". "It seems Hillary's victory is near," she said.

Others, perhaps surprisingly, have welcomed his views. Shanghai-based edenmami said: "I saw a wonderful Christian film about Dr Carson. I hope he can be elected US president, but whatever happens, God controls the world!"

Hong Sanjun agreed, saying: "He is appealing to the party's most conservative Christian forces."

Kerry Allen analyses Chinese media from our UK HQ in Caversham.

The media has similarly presented him as having strong racial views. Shanghai-based broadcaster Dragon TV mentioned Trump in a news bulletin, saying that many from "Mexico and Latin American communities considered him disrespectful".

Sina News Video said that he "angered Mexicans". It shared screenshots from his appearance in the 28 October Republican debate, talking about building a wall between the US and Mexico, like that built by the Chinese.

"How can you compare a wall you want Mexicans to pay for with the Great Wall of China" asked windy shiyufei.

The nomination is important to China, which has long-pinned strong Sino-US relations on President Xi Jinping's personal relationship with his US counterpart Barack Obama

Ben Carson: “an unfamiliar face”.

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Business tycoon Donald Trump has had a strong visible presence in the Chinese media for years. His TV show The Apprentice is popular via online video streaming services, and his daughter, Ivanka Trump, has an active presence on Sina Weibo, with more than 13,000 followers

Ivanka Trump has her own page on Sina Weibo.

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North Korea watchers are keenly awaiting the birthday celebrations in January of the country’s young leader Kim Jong-un, hoping to find clues as to what is going on in the world’s most secretive country. Among them are Chinese pundits who have noted a worrying chill in the two countries relations. Chinese media analyst Kerry Allen sums up their concerns

North Korea’s “wayward diplomacy”

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Kim Jong-un often uses his close aide Choe Ryong-hae (left) to deliver messages to both China and Russia.

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There is speculation in the Chinese media that Kim is turning his back on one powerful neighbour, and eyeing stronger ties with another – Russia.

As always, media commentators read between the lines of North Korean pronouncements to check the political weather. Chinese pundits seized on Kim Jong-un's uncharacteristically terse message to China during the annual National Day holiday on 1 October.

Leftist Hong Kong daily Wen Wei Po said "the whole text was 93 words long" and an editorial on Shanghai-based commentary website Guancha said that the congratulatory note was "not even 100 words".

"The note no longer emphasised the 'special ties' between both sides," read the Guancha editorial. "There are suggestions that this is a sign of cooling ties between the two countries".

Some noticed that China's message to North Korea was published on the second page of North Korean newspaper Rodong Sinmun, while those from Russia and Cuba were printed on the cover.

“Wayward" diplomacyOutlets noted Kim Jong-un's absence during the 3 September World War II anniversary parade, one of the year's most important diplomatic events in China.

Choe Ryong-hae, a high-ranking official in North Korea's Workers' Party, attended on Kim's behalf; however many expressed surprise at Kim's non-attendance, especially as the South Korean head of state Park Geun-hye was present. In the end, Choe appeared on the fringe of official photographs, leading commentators to believe that Kim did not attend in case he was similarly "snubbed".

An editorial on the Sohu news portal said that Kim Jong-un "did not even issue a public statement, or send one obvious sign that he did not want to come."

The writer said that the "responsibility was certainly not with China" and that the North Korean leader was "destined to leave a bad impression in the minds of the Chinese people" because "Kim Jong-un's diplomacy is so wayward".

Facing RussiaSome have speculated that North Korea is weakening its relationship with China so that it can build ties with Russia.

State-aligned publications including Wen Wei Po, Chutian Metropolis Daily and Reference News noted how Kim had recently curried favour with Russia by choosing to debut the North Korean all-girl band Chongbong Orchestra in Moscow.

Wen Wei Po said "the sexy band of girls wearing black dresses was created by Kim Jong-un personally", thereby signifying the importance of the gesture.

An editorial on the China.com web portal went further, saying there was "deterioration of Sino-DPRK relations, with Kim Jong-un turning his attention towards Russia, and gradually beginning to snub China".

"China will be getting tougher on North Korean denuclearisation," it said. "And the main problem lies with the DPRK or with the DPRK nuclear issue. China hopes to achieve the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, which is of the greatest importance for regional stability."

"But North Korea means to be a nuclear state."

Hostile

Not all believe that Sino-DPRK relations are weakening.

National newspaper Global Times criticized overseas commentaries for "looking for signs that China and North Korea's split is 'increasing'," adding: “While the different nature of various issues has brought on certain delicacy, both sides can withstand such factors and will not let it bring wider damages."

"The foundation of their friendship is very strong. The nuclear issue is also not all there is for ties between China and North Korea," the paper said.

Meanwhile Hong Kong paper Oriental Daily summed up the two countries’ opposing directions: "The Kim dynasty currently has an extremely weak sense of security because it is surrounded by giants. As a result, it has put strengthening itself as priority, by developing nuclear weapons. But this goes against China's interests."

Kerry Allen analyses Chinese media in our UK headquarters in Caversham.

Chinese pundits seized on Kim Jong-un's uncharacteristically terse message to China during the annual National Day holiday

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Kimpop: The North Korean leader is said to have been personally involved in creating costumes for the Chongbong girl band's debut in Moscow.

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