Basic Model using correlation

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Company >> Finance >> Profit & Loss Blue Dart Express Ltd Industry :Couriers (Rs in Crs) 1,934.15 2,166.51 1,492.71 0 0 0 1,934.15 2,166.51 1,492.71 41.97 39.41 21.15 0 0 0 1,976.12 2,205.92 1,513.86 0 0 0 14.56 15.21 9.98 264.85 298.28 190.78 1,314.73 1,397.55 991.56 166.16 177.37 119.72 1.32 11.8 1.34 0 0 0 1,761.62 1,900.21 1,313.38 214.5 305.71 200.48 0.03 0.01 0 214.47 305.7 200.48 27.1 34.48 21.6 187.37 271.22 178.88 60.29 85.94 56.57 0 0 0 2.68 -3.38 0.07 124.4 188.66 122.24 1.45 -7.34 -0.14 122.95 196 122.38 0 0 0 534.05 561.36 453.81 0 0 0 151.24 215.97 14.69 507.21 534.05 561.36 118.64 168.47 4.75 0 0 0 500 710 20 43.87 53.88 51.12 Year 14(12) 13(15) 11(12) INCOME : Sales Turnover Excise Duty Net Sales Other Income Stock Adjustments Total Income EXPENDITURE : Raw Materials Power & Fuel Cost Employee Cost Other Manufacturing Expenses Selling and Administration Expenses Miscellaneous Expenses Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capital Total Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Fringe Benefit tax Deferred Tax Reported Net Profit Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Adjst. below Net Profit P & L Balance brought forward Statutory Appropriations Appropriations P & L Balance carried down Dividend Preference Dividend Equity Dividend % Earnings Per Share-Unit Curr Earnings Per Share(Adj)-Unit Curr

description

Net salesCashProfitcorrelationnet profitDupont

Transcript of Basic Model using correlation

Page 1: Basic Model using correlation

Company >> Finance >> Profit & LossBlue Dart Express Ltd

Industry :Couriers(Rs in Crs)

1,934.15 2,166.51 1,492.71 1,147.410 0 0 0

1,934.15 2,166.51 1,492.71 1,147.4141.97 39.41 21.15 5.32

0 0 0 01,976.12 2,205.92 1,513.86 1,152.73

0 0 0 014.56 15.21 9.98 8.72

264.85 298.28 190.78 146.811,314.73 1,397.55 991.56 740.74

166.16 177.37 119.72 95.111.32 11.8 1.34 1.86

0 0 0 01,761.62 1,900.21 1,313.38 993.24

214.5 305.71 200.48 159.490.03 0.01 0 0.01

214.47 305.7 200.48 159.4827.1 34.48 21.6 19.22

187.37 271.22 178.88 140.2660.29 85.94 56.57 46.28

0 0 0 02.68 -3.38 0.07 -0.39

124.4 188.66 122.24 94.371.45 -7.34 -0.14 -0.38

122.95 196 122.38 94.750 0 0 0

534.05 561.36 453.81 362.210 0 0 0

151.24 215.97 14.69 2.77507.21 534.05 561.36 453.81118.64 168.47 4.75 2.37

0 0 0 0500 710 20 10

43.87 53.88 51.12 39.55

267.38 273.44 276.99 227.87

Year Mar 14(12) Mar 13(15) Dec 11(12) Dec 10(12) INCOME : Sales Turnover Excise Duty Net Sales Other Income Stock Adjustments Total Income EXPENDITURE : Raw Materials Power & Fuel Cost Employee Cost Other Manufacturing Expenses Selling and Administration Expenses Miscellaneous Expenses Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised Total Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross Profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Fringe Benefit tax Deferred Tax Reported Net Profit Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Adjst. below Net Profit P & L Balance brought forward Statutory Appropriations Appropriations P & L Balance carried down Dividend Preference Dividend Equity Dividend % Earnings Per Share-Unit Curr Earnings Per Share(Adj)-Unit Curr Book Value-Unit Curr http://www.capitaline.com

Page 2: Basic Model using correlation

905.23 974.46 808.72 668.02 415.09 458.330 0 0 0 0 0

905.23 974.46 808.72 668.02 415.09 458.337.6 10.71 3.13 1.95 7.69 5.34

0 0 0 0 0 0912.83 985.17 811.85 669.97 422.78 463.67

0 0 0 0 0 07.59 7.35 5.33 4.15 2.86 3.35

132.76 130.73 113.52 92.03 57.32 65.8578.22 627.56 496.08 421.85 245.43 266.23

81.21 82.34 62.12 47.04 30.55 42.851.71 1.37 3.78 3.24 4.96 4.63

0 0 0 0 0 0801.49 849.35 680.83 568.31 341.12 382.86111.34 135.82 131.02 101.66 81.66 80.81

0.55 0.51 0.42 1.78 2.36 5.36110.79 135.31 130.6 99.88 79.3 75.45

17.76 16.56 24.03 22.01 13.14 15.3293.03 118.75 106.57 77.87 66.16 60.1331.44 39.56 37.48 27.13 20.33 19.31

0.17 1.65 0.9 0.85 0.65 00.71 0.19 -1.74 -0.34 1.77 1.78

60.71 77.35 69.93 50.23 43.41 39.040.01 -0.09 -0.96 -1.13 -2.7 1.6560.7 77.44 70.89 51.36 46.11 37.39

0 0 -0.07 0 0 0304.27 229.7 162.62 116.35 79.17 52.15

0 0 0 0 0 02.77 2.78 2.78 3.96 6.23 12.02

362.21 304.27 229.7 162.62 116.35 79.172.37 2.37 2.37 2.37 3.56 7.12

0 0 0 0 0 010 10 10 10 15 30

25.38 32.38 29.26 21 24.08 16.01

189.31 164.93 133.54 105.31 85.31 68.75

Dec 09(12) Dec 08(12) Dec 07(12) Dec 06(12) Dec 05(9) Mar 05(12)

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Company >> Finance >> Balance SheetBlue Dart Express Ltd

Industry :Couriers(Rs in Crs)

23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76611.53 625.93 634.37 517.65 426.05 368.11 293.54

0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0

635.29 649.69 658.13 541.41 449.81 391.87 317.30 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0

9.16 9.4 8.49 0 0 0 0644.45 659.09 666.62 541.41 449.81 391.87 317.3

421.49 394.46 393.25 325.44 300.36 285.62 256.92193.77 174.28 160.52 142.34 128.7 112.44 96.75

0 0 0 0 0 0 0227.72 220.18 232.73 183.1 171.66 173.18 160.17

0 0 0 0 0 0 08.46 12.28 2.87 26.72 17.08 8.91 3.38

19.77 19.77 71.47 95.98 104.72 69.77 63.47

2.72 2.35 2.62 2.17 2 2.19 2.04266.72 227.21 188.98 153.29 125.94 118.01 110.46105.93 236.49 37.56 34.73 25.47 47.74 29.6

67.06 53.79 27.8 196.43 129.49 89.34 60442.43 519.84 256.96 386.62 282.9 257.28 202.1

222.88 160.79 146.42 121.45 98.17 86.06 80.2845.89 205.41 5.88 11.39 9.82 13.36 13.87

268.77 366.2 152.3 132.84 107.99 99.42 94.15173.66 153.64 104.66 253.78 174.91 157.86 107.95

0 0 0 0 0 0 07.3 8.87 3.69 3.43 2.93 3.83 2.84

24.84 23.73 21.93 21.6 21.49 21.68 20.51-17.54 -14.86 -18.24 -18.17 -18.56 -17.85 -17.67232.38 268.08 273.13 0 0 0 0644.45 659.09 666.62 541.41 449.81 391.87 317.3

9.09 0 0.36 168.47 168.37 168.16 113.95

Year Mar 14 Mar 13 Dec 11 Dec 10 Dec 09 Dec 08 Dec 07 SOURCES OF FUNDS : Share Capital Reserves Total Equity Share Warrants Equity Application Money Total Shareholders Funds Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS : Gross Block Less : Accumulated Depreciation Less:Impairment of Assets Net Block Lease Adjustment Capital Work in Progress Investments Current Assets, Loans & Advances Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank Loans and Advances Total Current Assets Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions Current Liabilities Provisions Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Miscellaneous Expenses not written off Deferred Tax Assets Deferred Tax Liability Net Deferred Tax Other Assets Total Assets Contingent Liabilities http://www.capitaline.com

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23.76 23.76 23.76226.46 178.94 139.58

0 0 00 0 0

250.22 202.7 163.3410.18 21.97 33.81

0 20 2010.18 41.97 53.81

0 0 0260.4 244.67 217.15

244.04 241.31 233.0675.34 62.07 56.7

0 0 0168.7 179.24 176.36

0 0 01.78 0.41 1.11

28.57 18.2 13.93

1.76 1.61 1.7888.8 67.11 56.3311.9 10.77 7.62

47.48 38.32 32.18149.94 117.81 97.91

61.03 44.46 44.158.31 7.17 10.58

69.34 51.63 54.7380.6 66.18 43.180.16 0.38 0.542.64 0.86 3.18

22.05 20.6 21.15-19.41 -19.74 -17.97

0 0 0260.4 244.67 217.15

108.18 48.04 40.12

Dec 06 Dec 05 Mar 05

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Financial analysis

1934.15 2166.51 1492.71 1147.41 905.23Cogs 1,594.14 1,711.04 1,192.32 896.27 718.57GP 340.01 455.47 300.39 251.14 186.66Opex 167.48 189.17 121.06 96.97 82.92Operating profit 172.53 266.30 179.33 154.17 103.74Non operating income 41.97 39.41 21.15 5.32 7.6PBIT 214.50 305.71 200.48 159.49 111.34Interest 0.03 0.01 0 0.01 0.55Tax 60.29 85.94 56.57 46.28 31.44PAT 154.18 219.76 143.91 113.20 79.35Divident 118.64 168.47 4.75 2.37 2.37Retained Earnings 35.54 51.29 139.16 110.83 76.98

23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76 23.76611.53 625.93 634.37 517.65 426.05

0 0 0 0 0227.72 220.18 232.73 183.1 171.6619.77 19.77 71.47 95.98 104.72

173.66 153.64 104.66 253.78 174.91

Year Mar 14(12) Mar 13(15) Dec 11(12) Dec 10(12) Dec 09(12) Net Sales

Share Capital Reserves Total Total Debt Net Block Investments Net Current Assets

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ROE 24.3% 33.8% 21.9% 20.9% 17.6%

Net profit margin 11.09% 14.11% 13.43% 13.90% 12.30%Asset turnover 300% 329% 224% 212% 201%Equity multiplier 101% 101% 101% 100% 100%Leverage 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.5%Tax multiplier 71.9% 71.9% 71.8% 71.0% 71.6%

Variables multiplied 24.3% 33.8% 21.9% 20.9% 17.6%ROE dicomposition 1 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

Sales CAGR 16.4%ROE volatility 6.14%

Sustainable growth rate23.7%

68% 0.23050979 0.23339097 0.96699326 0.979063616.02%

Number of shares

Year Mar 14(12) Mar 13(15) Dec 11(12) Dec 10(12) Dec 09(12)

Average ROE

Average Rentention

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0.97013233 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509 Err:509

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DuPont Analysis Latest Year

Sales 10,925

-

Inc

om

e S

tate

me

nt

Cost of Sales

6,778 1,166 -

divided by Net Profit Margin

2,452 10.7% -

Interest Expense Sales

29 10,925 -

Tax Expense

500 -

Othersmultiplied by

-

Sales 10,925

Current Assets

3,500 divided by 1.98

+

Total Assets

2,012 5,513

Ba

lan

ce

Sh

ee

t

Total Liabilities 2,823

Current Liabilities

2,776 +

+ 6,424 Long Term Debt

48 divided by

3,601

Earnings Available

Operating Expense

Total Asset Turnover

Net Fixed Assets (PPE)

Total Liab + SE = Total Assets

Stockholder Equity (SE)

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3,601

Common stock equity

Page 10: Basic Model using correlation

21.2%

multiplied by

37.7%

1.78

Return on Total Assets (ROA)

Return on Common Equity

(ROE)

Financial Leverage multiplier

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01934.15 2166.51 1492.71 1147.41 905.23 0

PAT 154.18 219.76 143.91 113.2 79.35 0105.93 236.49 37.56 34.73 25.47 47.74

Correl (Sales vs PAT) 0.94926269Correl (Sales vs Cash) 0.87128974

Year Mar 14(12) Mar 13(15) Dec 11(12) Dec 10(12) Dec 09(12) Net Sales

Cash and Bank

1 2 3 4 50

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Sales Profit and Cash

Net SalesPAT Cash and Bank

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0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 029.6 11.9 10.77 7.62