Barry Mudge, Orroroo presentation
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Transcript of Barry Mudge, Orroroo presentation
Managing risk in a Managing risk in a highly variable highly variable climate- Upper North climate- Upper North SA experiencesSA experiences
Barry MudgeBarry Mudge
FarmerFarmer
ConsultantConsultant
Port Germein Port Germein
Port Germein
Clay Loam
Sandy Loam
Limestone Rise
Annual Rainfall-Port Germein
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Rain
fall
(m
m)
Growing Season Rainfall
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Gro
win
g S
easo
n R
ain
fall
(m
m)
Historic Crop Yields
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Year
To
nn
es
/ha
Sandalwood
The Oaks
Operating Profit and Growing Season Rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
Year
Ope
ratin
g P
rofit
($'0
00)
Operating Profit
Strategic Responses- Improving resilience
■ Diversification or specialisation
■ Appropriate Scale
■ Maintain high equities
■ Attention to detail- adopting progressive technologies
■ Lease rather than buy if possible- invest surplus funds elsewhere
■ Have lease costs reflect profit rather than land value
Recent Strategic Response Changes
■ Direct Drilling
■ Zero tolerance Summer Weed Control
Early Seeding- Why is this so important?
Average timing of first 30 degree spring day
2000’s
1990’s
1980’s
1970’s
1960’s
Decade
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 9
Oct 26
Oct 19
Orroroo
Sept 14
Sept 20
Sept 21
Oct 5
Sept 29
Port Germein
Tactical Responses- Adaptive or responsive farming
■ Largely around agronomy- weeds, pests, diseases, nutrition
■ Develop simple predictive tools to give seasonal outlook indications at seeding
■ Being prepared to act on strong indications
■ 2007 demonstrated the potential benefits of tactical response
Yield Probabilities-2006/2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Yield (t/ha)
Pro
ba
bility (
%)
2006 Potential
2007 Potential
Low Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW <38 mm)-Port Germein
Early Seeding Opportunity
Middle Seeding Opportunity
Late Seeding Opportunity
High Modelled Plant Available Water at seeding (PAW >78 mm)-Port Germein
Early Seeding Opportunity
Middle Seeding Opportunity
Late Seeding Opportunity
Modelled effects of PAW at seeding against simulated yields at Quorn- 1900 to 2009
Current areas of research
■ Fallow management- strategic and tactical
■ Impact of climate change on varietal selection, TOS
■ Value of changing input levels- seasonal and spatial, crops to land classes
■ Optimising crop/ livestock balance
■ Managing late breaks- opportunistic sowing?
■ Flexible grain/ grazing
■ Income from carbon?
Summing Up
■ Last decade has been very testing for farming systems in the Upper North
■ Climate change or climate variability?
■ Confident about temperature increases- less confidence in rainfall predictions
■ Need to continue to refine strategies which provide resilience
■ Focus on developing the trigger points for more responsive and flexible programs