BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST
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BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST JAMES WOOD BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF UTAH February 7, 2006
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BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST. JAMES WOOD BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF UTAH February 7, 2006. CHANGE IN UTAH’S ECONOMIC INDICATORS. END-OF-YEAR MOMENTUM. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST
BANK OF UTAHOFFICER’S MEETING
UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST
JAMES WOOD
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
February 7, 2006
CHANGE IN UTAH’S ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Category 2004 2005 2006
Nonag. Employment (% chg.) 2.8% 3.5% 3.3%
Unemp. Rate 5.2% 4.7% 4.5%
Total Wages (% chg.) 6.4% 7.8% 6.8%
Population (% chg.) 1.6% 3.2% 2.9%
Average Annual Pay (% chg.) 3.5% 3.8% 3.4%
Net Migration (000) 18.4 40.6 37.0
New Auto/Truck Sales (000) 101.4 107.6 105.5
Residential Units (000) 24.3 28.0 26.0
Residential Valuation (million) $3,552.6 $4,600.0 $4,620.0
NonRes. Valuation (million) $1,089.9 $1,200.0 $1,400.0
Taxable Retail Sales (billion) $20.4 $22.0 $23.5
END-OF-YEAR MOMENTUM
November and December employment two highest months of the year – 41,000 and 44,000.
Net in-migration all time record of 41,000. Previous high 30,000 in 1994. Population increase record 78,000.
Third quarter taxable sales rose 13.8%, fastest in 12 yrs.Biggest fourth qtr. ever in homebuilding – 7,000 units.Passenger traffic at airport up 23% in third qtr. – 6 mil. Third qtr. vehicle sales up 21% to 29,800. Highest qtr. ever.Hotel occupancy rises to 73.1%Expectations: homebuilders, estimators, ABC, sheet metal
contractors, mechanical contractors, concrete ass’n.
UTAH AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY AS PERCENT OF U.S. AVERAGE(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% of U.S. Average
TOP SECTORS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(Average Wage - $30,612)(Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services)
Sector New Jobs in 2005
Total Jobs Avg. Wage
2003
Construction 10,000 85,100 $30,528
Prof & Bus. 8,600 150,700 $34,668
Health 5,000 132,600 $28,224
Retail 3,000 144,500 $22,440
Leisure 2,600 106,200 $12,576
NET MIGRATION AND NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN UTAH
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Net Migration Total New Residential Units
Utah = 9.0%
U.S. = 12.5%
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS IN UTAH (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Total Res. Units Apartments
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
Cycle 3
Cycle 4
Change in Sales Price of Existing Homes in Utah, Metro. Area and Salt Lake County
Data
Source
1980 1990 2000 2005 Average Annual Growth Rate for Period
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2005
1980-2005
Office of Federal Housing Oversight
(Statewide Index)
100.0 117.5 236.9 286.5 1.6% 7.3% 3.9% 4.3%
National Assoc. of Realtors
(Salt Lake MSA)
$65,800 $69,400 $141,500 $181,400 0.9% 7.4% 3.7% 5.1%
Wasatch Front Reg.
MLS
(Salt Lake County)
$67,949 $83,951 $176,479 $224,470 2.1% 7.7% 4.9% 4.9%
Median Sales Price of Existing Homes(Source: National Association of Realtors)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Salt Lake MSA Denver MSA U.S.
