Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America...
Transcript of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America...
Bank of America Merrill LynchLeveraged Finance ConferenceNovember 29, 2016
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information
• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.
• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.
• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.
2
Notices
Norbord Snapshot
• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products
• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
– Stated OSB capacity of 8.1 Bsf-3/8”
– Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 9.0 Bsf-3/8”
– Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe
• Listed on the NYSE and TSX (“OSB”)
• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
• LTM Q3-2016 sales of $1.7 billion
3
Company Overview
North America
Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)
Particleboard
Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)
Furniture
Panel Capacity by Region
Europe20%
Canada37%
US43%
9.0Bsf-3/8"
Global OSB Industry
4
Industry Overview
Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)
Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions
Source: Company documents and other public filings
0
10
20
30
North America Europe South America Asia
* Excluding NA OSB siding capacity
*
27%
Louisiana-Pacific
20%Georgia-Pacific
19%
Weyer-haeuser
11%
Huber8%
Tolko8%
Martco3% Other
5%
Industry Capacity27 Bsf-3/8"
North American & European OSB Industries
5
Industry Overview
North American OSB Industry
Source: Company documents and other public filings – stated industry capacity
European OSB Industry
Norbord is a significant player in both key markets
11%Kronospan
47%
KronoSwiss18%
Egger11%
10%
Sonae6%
Smartply4%
Kalavela3%
Others2%
Industry Capacity9 Bsf-3/8"
* Excluding OSB siding capacity.
*
Demand Growth Ahead in Both Key Markets
6
Industry Overview
OSB Share of Structural Panels
Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA) and Norbord estimates
Europe
North America
0%
25%
50%
75%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016F
US Housing Recovery Continues
7
Industry Overview
Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals
US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand
1.5 mm Over-Built
North American OSB Demand and Capacity
3.7 mm Under-Built
Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
U.S
. Ho
usi
ng
Star
ts (
mm
)
U.S. Housing Starts Underlying Demand
21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.1 28.3 28.1
27.8 28.4
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
–
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Effective
De
man
d / C
apacity
Cap
acit
y (B
sf-3
/8")
Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity
North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand
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Industry Overview
37 Mills in Operation
7 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed
North American OSB Installed Capacity:
Norbord Mill
7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13
Note: Excludes OSB siding capacity.
Source: APA, company documents and other public filings
(in Bsf-3/8”) 2012 2016e
Production 16.2 21.2
Restarts/Idled 4.4 3.1
=27% =15%
Attractive North American OSB Price Outlook
9
Industry Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of October 2016
• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy, demographics and the need for housing
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
An
nu
al A
vera
ge N
C P
rice
US$
pe
r M
sf 7
/16
"
Historical Price Forecasted Price (FEA)
15-year average:$229
Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart
10
Business Strategy
LTM Q3-2016 North American Shipments
• New housing sales volume growing as US housing starts recover• Industrial and export sales at more stable margins
New Home Construction (Pro-Dealers)
55%
Repair & Remodel (Big Box)
25%
Industrial15%
Export5%
5.7 Bsf-3/8"
2015 Future
Specialty Products Will Drive North American Substitution Growth
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Business Strategy
Specialty
Value added
Commodity
New home construction
Repair & remodel
Industrial &export
• Reduced dependence on new home construction
• More predictable, stable margins over business cycle
Diversification From European & Asian End Market Exposure
12
Business Strategy
LTM Q3-2016 Shipments by Origin
(1) Exports to Asia are included in North American shipments. Net sales to Asian markets were $52 million for LTM Q3-2016.
• Strong North American footprint
• Stable margin operations:
– Europe
– Asia-focused exports(1)
• Provides greater diversification than North American-based competitors
• Better positioned to weather market cycles
Europe
North AmericaNorth
America77%
Europe23%
7.5 Bsf-3/8"
3235
81
4
17
37
4439
46 47
3841
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTMQ3-2016
Stable Results from European Operations
13
Financial Overview
• Norbord’s European operations provide greater sales and earnings diversification than other North American-based competitors
European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
Inverness: Expanding to Meet Growing European Demand
14
Business Strategy
Capex budget: $135 million (£95 million)
Capacity once complete:
720 MMsf-3/8”(640 km3)
Start-up target: H2-2017
• Grande Prairie, Alberta press arrived safely in Scotland in Q3
• Press and building foundations progressing
Existing production lines will run until new line ramps up, ensuring no disruption to customers
631
495
247
42
-60
10745
188
287
290
307
48
-23 5
58
13
106
145
921
802
295
19
-60
5
165
58
294
432
115 122
326
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTMQ3-2016
Norbord Combined
Ainsworth
Norbord (excluding Ainsworth)
Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle
15
Financial Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
$369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $258
US Housing Starts(000s)
1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,111 1,143
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
12-year average:$264 million
(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate.
Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes:
+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 millionAdjusted EBITDA (at full capacity)
(1)
0x
3x
6x
9x
12x
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16F
Leverage Metrics Improving Rapidly
16
Financial Overview
Adjusted EBITDA vs Net Debt
Analyst Forecast
Quarterly Adj. EBITDA
Net Debt toLTM Adj. EBITDA
Source: Analyst reports
11.7x
2.1x
Attractive Investment Opportunity
17
Summary
Leverage to unfolding US housing recoveryEvery +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity
Diversification from European operations, North American industrial sales and Asian export sales
High quality asset base with low operating costs
Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships
Superior margins versus peers
Track record of disciplined capital allocation
Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities
Norbord Inc.
Suite 600One Toronto Street
Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4Canada
Tel: 416-365-0705Fax: 416-365-3292
www.norbord.com