Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America...

18
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016

Transcript of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America...

Page 1: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Bank of America Merrill LynchLeveraged Finance ConferenceNovember 29, 2016

Page 2: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

Page 3: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Norbord Snapshot

• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products

• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

– Stated OSB capacity of 8.1 Bsf-3/8”

– Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 9.0 Bsf-3/8”

– Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe

• Listed on the NYSE and TSX (“OSB”)

• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS

• LTM Q3-2016 sales of $1.7 billion

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Company Overview

North America

Europe

Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

Particleboard

Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)

Furniture

Panel Capacity by Region

Europe20%

Canada37%

US43%

9.0Bsf-3/8"

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Global OSB Industry

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Industry Overview

Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)

Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions

Source: Company documents and other public filings

0

10

20

30

North America Europe South America Asia

* Excluding NA OSB siding capacity

*

Page 5: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

27%

Louisiana-Pacific

20%Georgia-Pacific

19%

Weyer-haeuser

11%

Huber8%

Tolko8%

Martco3% Other

5%

Industry Capacity27 Bsf-3/8"

North American & European OSB Industries

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Industry Overview

North American OSB Industry

Source: Company documents and other public filings – stated industry capacity

European OSB Industry

Norbord is a significant player in both key markets

11%Kronospan

47%

KronoSwiss18%

Egger11%

10%

Sonae6%

Smartply4%

Kalavela3%

Others2%

Industry Capacity9 Bsf-3/8"

* Excluding OSB siding capacity.

*

Page 6: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Demand Growth Ahead in Both Key Markets

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Industry Overview

OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA) and Norbord estimates

Europe

North America

0%

25%

50%

75%

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016F

Page 7: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

US Housing Recovery Continues

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Industry Overview

Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals

US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand

1.5 mm Over-Built

North American OSB Demand and Capacity

3.7 mm Under-Built

Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

U.S

. Ho

usi

ng

Star

ts (

mm

)

U.S. Housing Starts Underlying Demand

21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.1 28.3 28.1

27.8 28.4

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Effective

De

man

d / C

apacity

Cap

acit

y (B

sf-3

/8")

Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity

Page 8: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

North American Capacity Restarts Needed to Meet Growing Demand

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Industry Overview

37 Mills in Operation

7 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

7 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13

Note: Excludes OSB siding capacity.

Source: APA, company documents and other public filings

(in Bsf-3/8”) 2012 2016e

Production 16.2 21.2

Restarts/Idled 4.4 3.1

=27% =15%

Page 9: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Attractive North American OSB Price Outlook

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Industry Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of October 2016

• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy, demographics and the need for housing

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

An

nu

al A

vera

ge N

C P

rice

US$

pe

r M

sf 7

/16

"

Historical Price Forecasted Price (FEA)

15-year average:$229

Page 10: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart

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Business Strategy

LTM Q3-2016 North American Shipments

• New housing sales volume growing as US housing starts recover• Industrial and export sales at more stable margins

New Home Construction (Pro-Dealers)

55%

Repair & Remodel (Big Box)

25%

Industrial15%

Export5%

5.7 Bsf-3/8"

Page 11: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

2015 Future

Specialty Products Will Drive North American Substitution Growth

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Business Strategy

Specialty

Value added

Commodity

New home construction

Repair & remodel

Industrial &export

• Reduced dependence on new home construction

• More predictable, stable margins over business cycle

Page 12: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Diversification From European & Asian End Market Exposure

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Business Strategy

LTM Q3-2016 Shipments by Origin

(1) Exports to Asia are included in North American shipments. Net sales to Asian markets were $52 million for LTM Q3-2016.

• Strong North American footprint

• Stable margin operations:

– Europe

– Asia-focused exports(1)

• Provides greater diversification than North American-based competitors

• Better positioned to weather market cycles

Europe

North AmericaNorth

America77%

Europe23%

7.5 Bsf-3/8"

Page 13: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

3235

81

4

17

37

4439

46 47

3841

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTMQ3-2016

Stable Results from European Operations

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Financial Overview

• Norbord’s European operations provide greater sales and earnings diversification than other North American-based competitors

European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

Page 14: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Inverness: Expanding to Meet Growing European Demand

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Business Strategy

Capex budget: $135 million (£95 million)

Capacity once complete:

720 MMsf-3/8”(640 km3)

Start-up target: H2-2017

• Grande Prairie, Alberta press arrived safely in Scotland in Q3

• Press and building foundations progressing

Existing production lines will run until new line ramps up, ensuring no disruption to customers

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631

495

247

42

-60

10745

188

287

290

307

48

-23 5

58

13

106

145

921

802

295

19

-60

5

165

58

294

432

115 122

326

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTMQ3-2016

Norbord Combined

Ainsworth

Norbord (excluding Ainsworth)

Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle

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Financial Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

$369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $258

US Housing Starts(000s)

1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,111 1,143

Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

12-year average:$264 million

(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate.

Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes:

+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 millionAdjusted EBITDA (at full capacity)

(1)

Page 16: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

0x

3x

6x

9x

12x

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16F

Leverage Metrics Improving Rapidly

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Financial Overview

Adjusted EBITDA vs Net Debt

Analyst Forecast

Quarterly Adj. EBITDA

Net Debt toLTM Adj. EBITDA

Source: Analyst reports

11.7x

2.1x

Page 17: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Attractive Investment Opportunity

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Summary

Leverage to unfolding US housing recoveryEvery +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity

Diversification from European operations, North American industrial sales and Asian export sales

High quality asset base with low operating costs

Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships

Superior margins versus peers

Track record of disciplined capital allocation

Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities

Page 18: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference · 2019-02-20 · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Leveraged Finance Conference November 29, 2016. ... 1970 1975 1980 1985

Norbord Inc.

Suite 600One Toronto Street

Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4Canada

Tel: 416-365-0705Fax: 416-365-3292

www.norbord.com