Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual...

30
Sabadell Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference Jaime Guardiola CEO 30 September 2015

Transcript of Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual...

Page 1: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

SabadellBank of America Merrill Lynch20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financ ials CEO Conference

Jaime GuardiolaCEO30 September 2015

Page 2: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

Disclaimer

Banco Sabadell cautions that this presentation may contain forward looking statements with respect to the business.financial condition, results of operations, strategy, plans and objectives of the Banco Sabadell Group. While these forwardlooking statements represent our judgement and future expectations concerning the development of our business, acertain number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differmaterially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to, (1) general market, Macroeconomic,governmental, political and regulatory trends, (2) movements in local and international securities markets, currencyexchange rate. and interest rates. (3) competitive pressures. (4) technical developments. (5) changes in the financialposition or credit worthiness of our customers, obligors and counterparts. These risk factors could adversely affect ourbusiness and financial performance published in our past and future filings and reports, including those with the SpanishSecurities and Exchange Commission (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores).

Banco Sabadell is not nor can it be held responsible for the usage. valuations. opinions. expectations or decisions whichmight be adopted by third parties following the publication of this information.

Financial information by business areas is presented according to GAAP as well as internal Banco Sabadell group´scriteria as a result of which each division reflects the true nature of its business. These criteria do not follow any particularregulation and can include forecasts and subjective valuations which could represent substantial differences shouldanother methodology be applied.

The distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Recipients of this presentation shouldinform themselves about and observe such restrictions.

These slides do not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer tobuy or subscribe to any securities nor shall they or any one of them form the basis of or be relied on in connection with anycontract or commitment whatsoever.

Page 3: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

1. Spanish economy2. Sabadell strategy update

3. Business dynamics

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Page 4: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

The pace of the economic recoveryis gaining momentum…

Source: Spanish Statistical Office (INE).

Real GDP QoQ, in percentage

EmploymentYoY change/contributions, in percentage

Spain will have a positive behaviour within the Eurozone

-0.1

0.1

0.3

1.0

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Q2 13 Q4 13 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q2 15

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Agriculture Industry Construction

Services Total

4

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… with the support of the Euro, oil prices and fiscal policy …

Source: Bloomberg.

Oil price(Brent,oil. USD per barrel)

Euro dollar evolution

Lower oil prices benefiting an oil intensive economy

Euro weakness gives support to export industry

Domestic demand is benefiting from a more neutral stance on fiscal policy

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-151.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

5

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90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Euro area Spain

... as well as the low interest rate environment

Source: Bank of Spain and ECB.

Relatively favourable financial conditions

Private sector has improved its financial situation

Structural reforms support the positive behaviour of the economy

Non-financial companies debt% of GDP

SMEs interest rate evolutionFrom 1 to 5 years, up to 1 million euros. In %

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Germany Spain

6

Page 7: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15Companies Households, consumptionHouseholds, house purchase

Credit continues to normalise …

Source: Bank of Spain.

Demand for credit is recovering

Increase in lending flows

New credit operationsYoY change

Lending to households: consumption and other purposesSurvey. In percentage

Credit activity is improving, partly due to an improved financial situation of families and businesses , more favourable financing conditions , cyclical improvement of the economyas well as the stabilisation of housing prices

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

7

Page 8: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

… and economic projections are positive

Source: Banco Sabadell

GDP forecast(Sabadell model, QoQ change in %)

2014 2015 2016

GDP (YoY, %) 1.4 3.3 2.7

Unemployment rate (%) 24.4 22.3 20.5

CPI (YoY, %) -0.2 -0.5 0.6

� The economy will maintain a favourable comparison within the Eurozone

� Growth will be more moderate as the positive impact of certain factors (e.g. fiscal reform) is reduced

� Internal demand will continue to be the main driver of GDP growth

� The main domestic risk is related to the political scene

� The main external risk would be the deterioration of the global financial conditions

0.7

0.91.0

0.90.8

0.70.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16

GDP (QoQ change, %) Forecast

8

Page 9: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

1. Spanish economy

2. Sabadell strategy update3. Business dynamics

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Page 10: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

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Sabadell group structure

� Domestic business delivery

� Extract value from the acquired size

� SME focus

� Improve the value proposal in Private Banking

� Developing new productivity drivers

� Balance sheet normalisation

� Complete TSB integrationcalendar and follow business plan

� Current TSB business plan highlights :

� Double digit return in 5 years from 2014

� Increase PCA market share Grow loans by 40-50% in 5 years from 2014

� New SME capabilities

� Positive outlook for the US business

� Mexican commercial bankinglicense already obtained. The bank will initially focus on companies, and subsequently seek business with private individuals

� Starting activity through a representative office in Colombia and Peru

Sabadell

Spain AmericasUnited Kingdom75% 5%20%

Note: Percentage of assets as of June 2015.

Page 11: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

Update on the TSB takeover

� On 30 June 2015 Sabadell received approval from the PRA regarding the change of control of TSB and consequently the offer became wholly unconditional in all respects. This date also reflects the date of consolidation of TSB accounts

� On 8 July 2015 the acceptance level exceeded 90% and as a result Sabadell initiated the “squeeze out” process

� On 28 July 2015 Sabadell delisted TSB

� On 21 August 2015 Sabadell completed the acquisition procedure, reaching 100% of TSB shares

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Page 12: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

Steps since completion

� New corporate governance structure in place

� Project Management Office has been deployed in London

� IT protocol has been set up

� Joint workstreams have been kicked-off

� 100-day plan in motion

� Management off-site with TSB

March 20

“100-day plan”

Today

PRA approvalOffer declared unconditional in all respects

April 17

May 8 June 30

July 8

Offer unconditional as to acceptances

Recommended cash offer announcement

OfferDocument release

May 18Satisfaction of EU Merger Regulation Condition

90% threshold achieved

December 5

TSB delisted

July 28

August 21 Completion of compulsory acquisition process

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Page 13: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

Sabadell near term focus for TSB

� TSB is delivering on its business plan, with a commitment to growing further still as part of the Sabadell group

� The IT platform will be ready at the end of 2016 with integration expected to be completed in 4Q 2017

� During the migration period new features and applications will gradually become available, improving customer experience at TSB

� The new IT platform will have SME capacity built into it, preparing TSB for a new growth opportunity within the UK SME segment

� Pre-tax synergy target of c.GBP160M per year from IT optimisation in 2018 is maintained

� GBP450M contribution by Lloyds to TSB more than offsets implementation costs of IT migration

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Page 14: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

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1. Spanish economy

2. Sabadell strategy update

3. Business dynamics

Page 15: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Increased customer activity reflects the stronger economy …

New residential mortgagesNumber of contracts

15

2015

2014

2013

New consumer loansNumber of contracts

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015

2014

2013

YTD+30%

YTD+29%

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0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

0500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

… with growth across most segments

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New SME loansNumber of contracts

Point of Sales turnoverEuros in million

2015

2014

2013

2015

2014

2013

YTD+29%

YTD+27%

Page 17: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

102,471101,807

102,250

103,811104,581

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15ex-TSB

We expect the overall loan book to continue to grow …

Performing loans evolution Euros in million

+0.7%QoQOrg

2Q15incl. TSB

134,875

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Page 18: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

28.9

27.9

28.328.6

29.4

29.930.1

Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

… driven by SME loans

SME and company loans evolution, ex-TSBEuros in billion

SME and company loan demand in positive territory

Note: SME and company loans include loans to SMEs, corporates and public sector and exclude NPLs. 18

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Improving market shares in companies …

Note: 2015 data as of June 2015 or last month available.

LoansExport docum.

creditPoS turnover

10.56% 29.79% 14.54%

10.74% 31.48% 15.88%Companies

Dec.14

2015

Spanish market shares by products

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Page 20: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

… and in individuals

Investment funds

Credit card turnover

Life Insurance

Household deposits

5.11% 7.64% 4.17% 5.31%

5.72% 7.89% 4.90% 5.49%Individuals

Dec.14

2015

Spanish market shares by products

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1

Note: 2015 data as of June 2015 or last month available.1 According to Inverco. 2 Insurance calculated per number of contracts.

2

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NII set to keep growing on a QoQ basis

Net interest income evolutionEuros in million

YoY growth :

+20.7%

+2.0% QoQ

545.9574.1

609.7643.1 655.9

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

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Page 22: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

The cost of term deposits continues to be reduced …

Contractual rates on term depositsIn percentage

Stock New production/renewals

New term deposits at

c0.30%

3.58%3.36%

3.13%2.84%

2.37%2.16%

1.83%1.67%

1.52%1.38%

1.18%

3.39%

2.16%1.85%

1.61%1.51%

1.29%1.05%

0.75%0.60%0.49% 0.39%

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15

22

Page 23: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

… and so is the cost of wholesale funding …

Wholesale funding cost evolutionIn percentage

Recent wholesale maturitiesEuros in million

Recent wholesale issuancesEuros in million

Note: Wholesale issuances and maturities over €750M. GGB refers to senior debt issued with a specific guarantee from the Spanish Government.

3.54% 3.51%3.41%

3.05%

2.71%

2.56%

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

Instrument Amount Coupon Issue date

Covered bond 1,250 0.875% Nov-14Covered bond 750 0.375% Jun-15

Instrument Amount Coupon Maturity date

Covered bond 1,000 3.375% Oct-14GGB 1,065 3.000% Nov-14Covered bond 1,200 3.625% Feb-15Covered bond 1,500 3.250% Jun-15

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Page 24: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

… while credit spreads are beginning to stabilise

Evolution of loan spreads by segmentIn percentage

Our strong SME franchise allows Sabadell to partially cushion the impact of lower spreads

Back book loan spreads by segmentIn basis points

Mortgages to individualsTotal SMEs

Corporates

Back book

Front book

Back book

Front book

Back book

Front book

Back book

Front book

Back book

Front book

Back book

Front book

Mortgages to individuals 87 227 89 214 90 209 92 201 94 187 95 173

SME 270 500 277 492 282 494 285 445 284 459 282 417

Corporates 268 327 266 302 260 297 243 265 229 233 219 233

2Q151Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

186 187 186 184 181 178

87 89 90 92 94 95

270 277 282 285 284 282

268 266 260243

229 219

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15

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Page 25: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

27,947 32,007 31,099 32,800 36,54548,098

11,471 11,663 12,176 12,680 13,495

32,68855,625 53,705 51,186 49,419 45,305

49,58413,705 14,665 15,706 18,674 20,230

20,230

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15ex-TSB

2Q15incl.TSB

Improving overall position in on-balance sheet customer funds

Evolution of customer funds and mutual funds Euros in million

Current accounts On-balance sheet term funds

Mutual funds

Note: On-balance sheet term funds include term deposits and other funds placed in the retail network (preference shares, mandatory convertible bonds, senior debt, commercial paper and other). Exclude repos.

Stock of current accounts (ex-TSB):

+11.4% QoQ+30.8% YoY

Sabadell’s flagship product “Cuenta Expansión”is driving growth in current accounts

Savings accounts

25

Page 26: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

With the highest standards in quality of service

Source: STIGA, EQUOS (Objective Quality Analysis in Banking Networks, 2Q 2015).

Sabadell stays well above the rest of the sector

Level of service quality Evolution of Sabadell quality index vs sector

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7.54

7.217.32

7.20 7.24

6.90 6.89

7.167.39

6.956.77

6.61

6.11 6.06 6.01 6.036.29

6.55

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q15Sabadell Sector

Page 27: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

9.5 8.5

15.313.6

2.52.3

Mar-15 Jun-15

Actively managing ALCO portfolio in a volatile market and a steepening yield curve

Fixed income portfolio evolution (ex-TSB)Euros in billion

Spanish public debt Other

Life insurance portfolio

ALCO portfolio (ex-TSB)Euros in billion and in percentage

Yield 2.5%

Evolution of ALCO portfolio in run-off scenario (ex-TSB)Euros in billion, yield in %

ALCO portfolio

ALCO portfolio

2015e 2016e 2017e 2018eAmount (€bn ) 21.1 19.3 18.3 17.8Yield (%) 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%

Mar-15 Jun-15

ALCO portfolio 24.8 22.0

% of total assets (ex-TSB) 14.8% 13.4%

Duration (in years) 5.2 3.6

ECB liquidity position 8.9 11.0

We actively manage interest rate sensitivity of the portfolio

27

Page 28: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

NPL ratio has been reduced significantly from peak levels

Evolution of NPL ratio and coverage of NPLsIn percentage

Note: NPL ratio is calculated including contingent risk and 20% of the APS.

NPL ratio ex-TSB expected to drop below 10% by year-end

13.85% 13.44% 12.74% 11.68% 10.98%9.01%

53.8% 51.9%49.4% 51.4% 52.8% 53.7%

2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15ex-TSB

2Q15

NPL ratio

NPL coverage

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Page 29: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

11.4%11.8% 11.7% 11.8% 11.5%

1.1%1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5%

Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15

Comfortable capital position post TSB transaction

Common Equity Tier 1 and Tier II evolution

CET1 fully loaded at 11.2%

CET 1

Tier II

29

Uncertainty around DTCs has been eliminated

Page 30: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking ... · Bank of America Merrill Lynch 20th Annual Banking, Insurance & Diversified Financials CEO Conference ... financial condition,

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