Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman,...

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BANK EXECUTIVE BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY 2017, Q4

Transcript of Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman,...

Page 1: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

BANK EXECUTIVE BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY

2017, Q4

Page 2: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

INTRODUCTION

Bankers on the whole are a cautious bunch. So it really wasn’t too surprising that despite some very positive economic news in 2017, they were somewhat reserved in their optimism about the future.

But if the saying “optimism is contagious” is true, then the banking sector seems to have caught a strong case of positivity—at least for now.

This quarter’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey shows changes to the Bank Experience IndexSM, which looks back at the last 12 months, with a full-point improvement in the fourth quarter (51.3) when compared to the third quarter of last year (50.3).

But even more interestingly, the proprietary Bank Confidence IndexSM—a look to the future—shows a massive 2.4-point jump from Q3 to Q4 (48.1 to 50.5). This is the highest rating for the Bank Confidence Index since Q2 of 2016. And it comes after two quarters of contractionary ratings. (Charted on a scale of 0-100, a score over 50 can be read as expansionary. A result below 50 can be read as contractionary.)

The following pages contain a lot more information that we think you will find useful, including what banks plan to do now that the Trump tax plan has become law and whether loan demand is still increasing.

As always, if you have any thoughts or questions about the results, please contact Steve Kinner, Senior Managing Director, Sales, at (866) 776-6426, x3445, or Phil Battey, Senior Vice President, External Affairs, at (866) 776-6426, x3357.

Sincerely,

Mark Jacobsen President & CEO Promontory Interfinancial Network, LLC Arlington, Virginia

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Across a number of survey indicators, bankers’ views about the current state of the industry, as well as their expectations about its future, are pointing up.

In general, respondents showed growing enthusiasm for the economy with 63% saying economic conditions had improved for their bank today compared to 12 months ago and only 5% saying things had gotten worse. By contrast, those numbers were 49% “improved” and 9% “worse” on the same question asked last quarter—an 18-point gain in net favorability on that measure. Looking to the future, this survey shows bankers are even more optimistic about how the economy will impact their bank with 65% saying their situation will improve and only 5% saying it will get worse. Those numbers were 45% “improved” and 10% “worse” last quarter—a significant 25-point swing in net expectations.

The change in outlook could be explained by a number of factors: 1) the enactment of tax cut legislation (the survey was conducted after the bill passed into law), 2) a year of generally positive economic numbers, or 3) better underlying numbers for the banking sector. Most likely it is a combination of these and other factors.

We also asked bankers to whom they gave credit for 2017’s positive economic performance—the former or the current White House administration—and how much credit they ascribe to that administration. Forty percent of respondents gave “a lot of credit” to the Trump administration compared to only 5% to the Obama administration. This shows considerable approval for President Trump’s current economic policy among bank executives.

Respondents were also asked how they plan to use the money saved from the tax cut. A majority of community bank executives (51%) said they’ll use money saved to invest in their business and grow the company. The second most popular option (40%)

was to increase wages for employees, perhaps a sign of greater pressure to retain worker talent at community banks.

We also asked banks which regulatory change would make the biggest positive impact for their bank. A whopping two-thirds (67%) of community banks said they wanted a regulatory approach based on the size and complexity of the institution being regulated.

Highlights from other parts of the survey include:

• Loan Demand. Slightly more than 58% of bankers reported an increase in loan demand this quarter—up a sizable 7.5 percentage points from last quarter. Sixty-four percent of respondents said they expect to see an increase in loan demand over the next 12 months, compared to 51% last quarter.

• Funding Costs. The number of banks reporting higher funding costs escalated significantly this quarter as 78% reported an increase, compared to 68% last quarter.

• Deposit Competition. The number of respondents expecting competition for deposits to increase over the next year rose slightly this quarter to 80%, compared to 77% in Q3. n

Supplemental Survey

3Bank Confidence Index

7Access to Capital

9Loan Demand

11Funding Costs

13Deposit Competition

15Overall Economic Conditions

17

Table of Contents

Page 4: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

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BANKER PERSPECTIVES ON THE NEW TAX LAW

Because of the new tax law, which reduces the corporate marginal tax rate from 35% to 21% and allows a one-time repatriation of overseas cash, many institutions believe they will see significant savings from lower tax bills.

In this quarter’s survey, we asked banks to share with us how they plan to invest the money they will save from the tax cut.

And with the tax cut now law, many believe Congress will turn to the issue of regulatory relief. This is an important issue for the banking sector, and, accordingly, we asked our respondents to identify which regulatory change would have the greatest impact on their institution.

We also asked banks to whom they credit 2017’s positive economic performance—the former or the current White House administration.

SUPPLEMENTAL SURVEY

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SUPPLEMENTAL SURVEY

The new corporate tax rate is the first reduction since the 1986 Tax Reform bill and creates the lowest marginal rate since before World War II.1

Many companies believe the new rate will significantly increase earnings, which begs the question, what will institutions do with the tax savings?

To find out where banks stand, we asked the following question: As a result of the new tax law signed by President Trump on December 22, 2017, do you plan to do any of the following in 2018?

As the accompanying chart shows, a majority of community bank executives (51%) say they’ll use money saved from the recently passed federal tax cut to invest in their business and grow the company. The second most popular option (40%) was to increase wages for employees, perhaps a sign of greater pressure to retain worker talent at community banks. Just behind that (29%) was the choice to pay higher dividends or to conduct stock buybacks (many economists have predicted that most businesses would choose this option).2 The least popular choices were to pay down debt (13%) and to acquire another financial institution (12%). Survey respondents were allowed to choose more than one option.

BANKER PERSPECTIVES ON THE NEW TAX LAW

New Tax Law ResponsesAs a result of the new tax law, do you plan to do any of the following in 2018?

1 “ Federal Corporate Income Tax Rates, Income Years 1909-2012,” Tax Foundation, accessed February 7, 2018, https://taxfoundation.org/federal-corporate-income-tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/.

2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends, not workers’ pockets, survey predicts,” CNBC, January 30, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/cnbc-fed-survey-most-of-the-tax-cut-windfall-will-boost-buybacks-and-dividends.html.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

N/A

Acquire Another

Financial Institution

Reduce Debt

Pay Higher Dividends and/or

Conduct Stock Buybacks

Pay Higher Wages to Em

ployees

Increase Investment in Business

50.8%

39.5%

29.2%

14.3%13.0% 12.2%

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It’s no surprise that with the passage of tax reform, the next big priority for the banking sector is regulatory reform. But exactly what changes to Dodd-Frank and other banking rules do banks want Congress to address?

We asked our survey respondents which regulatory change would make the biggest positive impact for their banks in 2018.

Two-thirds (67%) of community bank executives said they hoped for further tailoring of the regulatory approach based on the size and complexity of institutions being regulated—instead of a one-size-fits-all approach. This was the winner by a large margin and underscores the need to fix the approach to regulation. The only other option that reached double-digits was a desire to reduce the burden and complexity of paperwork, although this clocked in at only 18%.

SUPPLEMENTAL SURVEY

BANKER PERSPECTIVES ON REGULATORY REFORM

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Harmonizing Regulatory

Oversight

Other

Better Aligning Regulations

to Support Market Liquidity,

Investment, and Lending in

the U.S. Economy

Reducing Paperwork Burdens

and Complexity

Further Tailoring the Regulatory

Approach Based on Size and

Complexity of Regulated Institutions

Regulatory Change ResponsesWhich regulatory change would make the biggest positive impact for your bank in 2018?

67.0%

17.6%

9.2%4.3%

1.9%

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When it comes to the economy, President Donald Trump gets high marks from bankers. When asked “how much credit do you give the Trump administration for the past year’s positive economic conditions,” 83% of top-level banking executives gave President Trump’s administration a lot (40%) or some (43%) credit. By comparison, only 27% of executives gave former President Barack Obama’s administration a lot (5%) or some (22%) credit.

Further examination reveals the Trump administration received its largest support from banks with $1 billion or less in assets (84%) and from bankers in the Midwest and West (tied at 86%), followed closely by the South (85%). The only region where a majority (54%) of banks gave the Obama administration some or a lot of credit for positive economic improvements over the past year was the Northeast.

SUPPLEMENTAL SURVEY

TRUMP OR OBAMA: WHO GETS CREDIT FOR 2017’S POSITIVE ECONOMIC RESULTS?

Credit for Economic Results ResponsesHow much credit do you give the following administrations for the past year’s positive economic conditions? (0 = No Credit, 10 = All Credit)

17%Not a Lot of Credit

40%

43%

A Lot of Credit

Some Credit

5%

22%

A Lot of Credit

Some Credit

73%Not a Lot of Credit

Credit to the Trump Administration

Credit to the Obama Administration

A LOT/SOME CREDIT

MEAN SCORE 6.55

83%

n A LOT OF CREDIT (8-10) n SOME CREDIT (5-7) n NOT A LOT OF CREDIT (0-4)

A LOT/SOME CREDIT27%

MEAN SCORE 2.81

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Bank Confidence Index

45

50

55

60

65

70

Q42017

Q32017

Q22017

Q12017

Q42016

Q32016

Q22016

Q12016

Q42015

50.5

51.3

66.5

48.8

EXPECTATION FOR OVERALL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

BANK EXPERIENCE INDEXBANK CONFIDEN CE INDEX

53.6

▲ 51.3 Bank Experience Index +1.0 over previous quarter

(composite of reported experiences looking back at the preceding 12 months)

▲ 50.5 Bank Confidence Index +2.4 over previous quarter

(composite of expectations for core banking conditions looking forward to the next 12 months)

BANK CONFIDENCE INDEXThe Bank Confidence Index is meant to quantify bankers’ forward-looking expectations for the industry, while the Bank Experience Index is meant to quantify bankers’ experiences over the last 12 months. The expectation for overall economic conditions is a composite of expectations looking beyond the banking industry for the next 12 months. These are based on responses by C-level bank executives to survey questions relating to four key factors: access to capital, loan demand, funding costs, and deposit competition. (Charted on a scale of 0-100, a score over 50 can be read as expansionary. A result below 50 can be read as contractionary.)

▲66.5 Expectation for Overall Economic Conditions +7.2 over previous quarter

(composite of expectations looking beyond the banking industry for the next 12 months)

The Bank Confidence Index and Bank Experience Index are proprietary indexes of Promontory Interfinancial Network, LLC calculated using Promontory Interfinancial Network’s proprietary algorithm. Bank Confidence Index and Bank Experience Index are service marks of Promontory Interfinancial Network, LLC.

Bank Experience Index Bank Confidence Index

4042444648505254565860

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

4042444648505254565860

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

51.3 50.552.150.150.4 50.450.4

47.6

50.3

48.1

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NortheastMidwest WestSouth

01020304050607080

Overall Economic ConditionsBank Confidence Index

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BANK CONFIDENCE INDEX - REGIONAL AND ASSET-SIZE SEGMENTATIONS

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTSn Midwest: Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast: Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South: Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West: Kansas City, San Francisco

49.250.1

53.5

49.7

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

• Like last quarter, respondents from smaller community banks (banks with less than $1 billion in assets) feel slightly more confident about banking conditions (50.7) than their counterparts at larger community banks (banks with between $1 billion and $10 billion in assets) (49.2).

• Bankers from the South, who were the most confident about banking conditions last quarter with an index of 50.9, only grew in their confidence this quarter, reporting in at 53.5. Respondents from the Midwest were the least confident of all regions with an index of 49.2, although that number was up almost two points from 47.4 in Q3.

Bank Confidence Index by Asset Size

Less Than $1 Billion in AssetsBetween $1 Billion and $10 Billion in Assets

01020304050607080

Overall Economic ConditionsBank Confidence Index

50.7

53.5

49.2

49.2

Bank Confidence Index by Region

Summary Highlights

Mid

wes

t

Nor

thea

st

Sout

h

Wes

t

Mid

wes

t

Nor

thea

st

Sout

h

Wes

t

50.1 49.7

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• Nearly 35% of bankers across all asset-size tiers and regions reported an improvement in access to capital this quarter, and 37% of respondents expect to see even more improvement over the coming year.

• Bankers in the South were again the most optimistic this quarter—44%—up a sizable 13.5 percentage points from last quarter.

• More than 41% of CEOs expect to see an improvement in access to capital in the next 12 months—the most of all C-level executives surveyed. Comparatively, only 35% of CFOs and 27% of presidents expect to see improvement.

9

ACCESS TO CAPITAL

Expectation for the 12 Months Ahead

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved

Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

201720162015

Experience Compared to 12 Months Ago

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

201720162015

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved

Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

How is your bank's access to capital compared to 12 months ago?What are your expectations for your bank's access to capital 12 months from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

Responses over Time

Summary Highlights

34.6%37.3%

26.2%

8.4%

28.9%

8.4%

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n Midwest

Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast

Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South

Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West

Kansas City, San Francisco

ACCESS TO CAPITAL - KEY SEGMENTATIONS

1%

57%

Worse

Same

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

NortheastMidwest WestSouth

Segmentation by RegionThis chart looks at expectation by region for banks’ access to capital 12 months from now.

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

Segmentation by Bank Leader Expectation

CEOs

IMPROVED

41%73% Same

Presidents

IMPROVED

27%1%

64%

Worse

Same

CFOs

IMPROVED

35%

43.7%

33.3%

10.4%

n IMPROVED n SAME n WORSE

Page 12: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

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LOAN DEMAND

Expectation for the 12 Months Ahead

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

201720162015

Experience Compared to 12 Months Ago

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved

Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

201720162015

How is your bank's current loan demand compared to 12 months ago?What are your expectations for your bank's loan demand 12 months from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

• Slightly more than 58% of bankers reported an increase in loan demand this quarter—up 7.4 percentage points from last quarter. Sixty-four percent of respondents expect to see an increase in loan demand over the next 12 months, compared to 51% last quarter.

• All regions expressed optimism about loan demand over the next year. The South led all regions with 72% expecting growth 12 months from now. The biggest improvement in expectations for loan demand occurred in the Northeast, which saw a 27.1-percentage-point increase from last quarter (37%) to Q4 (64%).

Responses over Time

Summary Highlights

58.1%

64.0%

55.9%48.4%

9.7% 8.1%

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n Midwest

Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast

Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South

Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West

Kansas City, San Francisco

LOAN DEMAND - KEY SEGMENTATIONS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

NortheastMidwest WestSouth

Segmentation by RegionThis chart looks at expectation by region for banks’ loan demand 12 months from now.

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

Segmentation by Asset SizeExpectation of Banks with Less Than $1 Billion in Assets

Expectation of Banks with between $1 Billion - $10 Billion in Assets

4% Moderately Worse

11% Significantly Improved

34% Same51%Moderately

Improved

IMPROVED

62%29%

8% Significantly Improved

57%Moderately

Improved

Same

6% Moderately Worse

IMPROVED

65%

71.9%64.1%

61.5%

53.8%

10.4%10.3%

Page 14: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

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FUNDING COSTS

Expectation for the 12 Months Ahead

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse

Significantly Improved

Same Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

201720162015

Experience Compared to 12 Months Ago

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse

Significantly Improved

Same Significantly Worse Moderately Improved

201720162015

How are your bank's funding costs compared to 12 months ago?What are your expectations for your bank's funding costs 12 months from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

• The number of banks reporting higher funding costs remains high this quarter as 78% reported an increase; this is on top of 68% reporting a rise last quarter. Nearly 89% of respondents across all asset-size tiers and regions expect to see funding costs rise in the coming year, compared to about 87% in Q3.

• Nearly all (92%) of respondents in the Northeast expect moderate or significant increases in funding costs over the next year—the most of any region. Respondents from the Midwest and South were tied at 89%, and respondents from the West were at 87%.

• Similar to last quarter, nearly 94% of respondents from larger community banks expect to see funding costs rise over the next 12 months. Approximately 88% of respondents from smaller community banks expect an increase over the next year.

Responses over Time

Summary Highlights

78.1%

88.9%

20.5%

9.5%

68.6% 68.4%

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FUNDING COSTS - KEY SEGMENTATIONS

Segmentation by Region

Segmentation by Asset SizeExpectation of Banks with Less Than $1 Billion in Assets

Expectation of Banks with between $1 Billion - $10 Billion in Assets

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

NortheastMidwest WestSouth

This chart looks at expectation by region for banks’ funding costs 12 months from now.

n Midwest

Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast

Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South

Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West

Kansas City, San Francisco

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

19%

Moderately Improved6%

75%Moderately

WorseSignificantlyWorse

WORSE

94%

ModeratelyWorse

67%

4%

7% Same

21%SignificantlyWorse

Moderately Improved

1% Significantly Improved

WORSE

88%

92.3% 75.0%

59.1%

76.9%

67.6%

21.8%

15.4%

13.5%

28.0%

Page 16: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

• The number of respondents expecting competition for deposits to increase over the next year rose slightly from 77% in Q3 to 80% this quarter.

• Once again this quarter, all regions expect to see greater deposit competition over the next 12 months; however, this time respondents from the Midwest and the West topped the list at 85% (compared to the Northeast, which came in at a high of 94% last quarter). The Northeast and the South round out the list with 79% and 68%, respectively.

• This quarter, the number of respondents from smaller community banks who believe increases in deposit competition are likely over the next 12 months is up only slightly from Q3 (80% in Q4 compared to 76% in Q3).

15

DEPOSIT COMPETITION

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse

Significantly Improved

Same Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

201720162015

How is your bank's deposit competition compared to 12 months ago?What are your expectations for your bank's deposit competition 12 months from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

Expectation for the 12 Months Ahead

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4

Moderately Worse

Significantly Improved

Same

Significantly Worse Moderately Improved

201720162015

Experience Compared to 12 Months Ago

Responses over Time

Summary Highlights

80.0%

23.0%

57.0%

12.2%

50.5%

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n Midwest

Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast

Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South

Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West

Kansas City, San Francisco

DEPOSIT COMPETITION - KEY SEGMENTATIONS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

NortheastMidwest WestSouth

Segmentation by RegionThis chart looks at expectation by region for banks’ deposit competition 12 months from now.

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

Segmentation by Asset SizeExpectation of Banks with Less Than $1 Billion in Assets

Expectation of Banks with between $1 - $10 Billion in Assets

ModeratelyWorse

60%

Same

Significantly Worse25%

11%Moderately Improved4%

WORSE85%

ModeratelyWorse

57%17% Same

2% Moderately Improved

1% Significantly Improved

23% Significantly Worse

WORSE80%

85.3%

84.9%

61.5%

60.2%58.5%

50.0%

26.8% 24.7%

17.9%17.7%

Page 18: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

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OVERALL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

How are overall economic conditions for your bank compared to 12 months ago?What are your expectations for overall economic conditions for your bank 12 months from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

Expectation for the 12 Months Ahead

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Q4 2017

Q3 2017

Q2 2017

Q1 2017

Q4 2016

Moderately Worse Significantly Improved Same

Significantly Worse

Moderately Improved

Experience Compared to 12 Months AgoResponses over Time

Summary Highlights

62.9%

64.6%

57.8%

6.8%

55.1%

7.8%

• Sixty-three percent of bankers reported an improvement in overall economic conditions in Q4, up from 49% last quarter. Nearly 65% expect to see further improvement over the coming year, compared to 45% last quarter.

• While bankers in the Northeast were the least positive of any region last quarter (24%), they are the most optimistic this quarter with 74% expecting to see improvement in overall economic conditions for their banks over the next 12 months.

• Both smaller community banks and larger community banks are gaining optimism. This quarter, 65% of respondents from smaller community banks expect to see an improvement in overall economic conditions in the next 12 months, compared to 44% last quarter. Sixty percent of larger community banks expect to see an improvement, compared to 47% last quarter.

Page 19: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

18

OVERALL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS - KEY SEGMENTATIONS

Segmentation by RegionThis chart looks at expectation by region for overall economic conditions 12 months from now.

n Midwest

Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, St. Louis

n Northeast

Boston, New York, Philadelphia

n South

Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond

n West

Kansas City, San Francisco

REGIONS BY FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS

Segmentation by Asset SizeExpectation of Banks with Less Than $1 Billion in Assets

Expectation of Banks with between $1 - $10 Billion in Assets

4%4%

36% Same

Moderately Worse

Significantly ImprovedModeratelyImproved

56%

53%

IMPROVED

60%

7%6%

29% Same

Moderately Worse

Significantly ImprovedModerately

Improved

58%

53%

IMPROVED

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Significantly Improved

Moderately Improved

SameModerately Worse

Significantly Worse

NortheastMidwest WestSouth

74.4%

9.4%5.4%

49.5%

60.4%59.2%66.7%

5.6%

7.7%

Page 20: Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey 2017, Q4...tax-rates-incomeyears-1909-2012/. 2 Steve Liesman, “Fed Survey: Most of the tax cut windfall will boost buybacks and dividends,

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METHODOLOGY AND RESPONSEPromontory Interfinancial Network’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey was conducted online over the course of two weeks from January 16 to January 30, 2018.

The survey was delivered via email to bank CEOs, presidents, and CFOs. Leaders from 370 unique banks throughout the United States completed the survey. Of these 370 respondents, 162 were CEOs (44%), 33 were presidents (9%), and 175 were CFOs (47%).

Compared to the asset-size breakdown of the overall banking industry, the sample of respondents skewed slightly towards larger community banks, banks with assets between $1 billion and $10 billion.

All percentages have been rounded to the nearest whole number unless reported otherwise.

ABOUT THE COMPANYPromontory Interfinancial Network offers unique services that bring banks and other institutions together in a way that helps each to benefit from The Power of ManySM— enabling them to offer services that otherwise might be too difficult or costly for them to offer on their own and providing them with tools to help manage their balance sheets.

Promontory Interfinancial Network’s services include Insured Cash Sweep®, CDARS®, Promnet RepoSM (provided by Assetpoint Financial, LLC), IND®, Yankee Sweep®, and Bank Assetpoint®.

For more information about this survey, Promontory Interfinancial Network, or its services, please call (866) 776-6426 or visit Promnetwork.com.