COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGENUnderstanding the negotiations: From Kyoto through Bali to Copenhagen and beyond

Mithika MwendaCOORDINATOR PAN AFRICAN CLMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE Tel: +254-20-4441483, 4441338/9, Cell: +254-724-403 555Fax: +254-20-4443241/4445835Email: mwemithika@yahoo.com, jmwenda@aacc-ceta.org, info@pacja.org

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCEmerged on the political agenda in the mid-1980s with the increasing scientific evidence of human interference in the global climate system and with growing concern about the environment. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide policy makers with authoritative scientific information in 1988. IPCC was tasked with assessing the state of scientific knowledge concerning climate change, evaluating its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, and formulating realistic policy advice.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCThe IPCC published its first report in 1990 concluding that the growing accumulation of human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earths surface by the next century, unless measures were adopted to limit emissions. The report confirmed that climate change was a threat and called for an international treaty to address the problem.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCThe UN General Assembly responded by formally launching negotiations for a framework convention on climate change and establishing an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to develop the treaty. Negotiations to formulate an international treaty on global climate protection began in 1991 and resulted in the completion, by May 1992, of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC

The UNFCCC was opened for signature during the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992, and entered into force in March 1994.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC

OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTIONThe Convention sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. To achieve this objective, all countries have a general commitment to address climate change, adapt to its effects, and report their actions to implement the Convention.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCThe Convention divides countries into two groups: Annex I Parties, the industrialised countries who have historically contributed the most to climate change, and Non-Annex I Parties, which include primarily the developing countries. African countries belong to Non-Annex I category, and have no obligation to cut down its greenhouse gases.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCThe objective could not be achieved since there were no legally binding obligations for any party to reduce its greenhouse gasesMeanwhile science continued to warn of dire consequences if the community of nation failed to seriously address the increased concentration of ghg gases in the atmosphere.

BACKGROUND OF UNFCCCKYOTO PROTOCOLRequired countries to take commitment to reduce ghgs Agreed in Japan in 1997 during COP3Entered into force in 2005Focused on mitigation (market-based)Gave little priority to adaptationResultant mechanisms Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which has not worked for Africa and the poor

WHERE WE ARE NOWLegal mandate of Kyoto expires by 2012There should be no vacuumScience is very clear we have reached the tipping point IPCC-AR4, 2007Global consensus that CC will have effects on all efforts to reduce poverty, e.g. MDGs Global dialogue for a regime to succeed Kyoto protocol which should be pro-poor, people-driven, equitable and justEndless game of musical chairs always shifting goalposts

THE NORTH-SOUTH IMPASSEDivided house - a lot of suspicion in discussions conflicting positionsNorth wants South to take commitmentsSouth says North has historical responsibility to assist in adaptation, reduce ghgs, etcSome in South say they should be allowed to pollute to reach the same level as NorthThe civil society want a middle-ground, where all should take responsibility but putting into consideration their levels of development

RACING AGAINST TIME

Parties agreed on Bali RoadmapThis is intended to build consensus on main pillars of post-2012 climate change regime:AdaptationMitigationTechnology transfer and deploymentFinancePositive development: the roadmap has brought adaptation at the fore of negotiations adaptation will find more space after 2009

NO PROGRESS IN POZNAN & BONN I, II, IIIThe lack of substantive progress overshadowed three positive process related outcomes :A commitment to shift from discussion mode to full negotiating mode in 2009A programme and schedule of talks in the run up to Copenhagen was agreedThe Adaptation Fund, set up to help poorer countries deal with climate change, is now operational

PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS ON: A shared comprehensive equitable vision for the negotiations The adequacy of emission reductions targets for Annex 1 countries The scale and nature of the obligation of Annex 1 countries to provide adequate financial and technological support for clean development, avoided deforestation and adaptation in developing countries

PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS

PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS

PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS

PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS

KEY DATES (INTERNATIONAL)SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS IN THE COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGEN29 March 8 April 2009 AWG, Bonn1 - 14 June SBSTA 30, Bonn, 10 August 2009-14 August 2009.Bonn, Germany, Informal meetings of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP22 September 2009,UN H/Q, New York, US; high-level event on climate change for Heads of State and Government, by UN Secretary-GeneralAd hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) 7 and Ad hoc Working Group for the Enhancement of Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) 9, 28 September - 9 October, Bangkok, Thailand 2 November 2009-6 November 2009,Barcelona, Spain. A resumed AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP97 -18 December 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark. UNFCCC COP 15 and Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP 5 End of 2012 Deadline for ratification of a new Climate deal

KEY DATES (AFRICA)AMCEN is leading the consolidation of a unified African position mandated by AUHas an elaborate plan of action on continental engagement23 29 May 2009: 3rd AMCEN Session on climate change, Nairobi, KenyaPACJA CS meeting 23 - 241 3: AU Heads of States Assembly on climate change, Sirte, Libya24 August 2009; Conference of African Heads of States and Governments on CC, shifted to Libya Eastern Africa Climate Equity Summit Nairobi, Kenya, April 2009Southern Africa Climate Equity meeting, Johannesburg, SA, May 20091st Pre-AMCEN African CS consultative workshop, Nairobi, Kenya, 2009Pan African Parliamentary Climate Summit, Yaound, Cameroon, 25 27, June 2009African Parliamentary Summit on Climate Change, October, Nairobi, Kenya4th Special AMCEN session on CC, 19 21 Oct. - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia2nd African civil society consultative/strategy workshop, 16 18, Oct, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia COMESA IS PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN THIS MOBILISATION

URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Consolidation of a critical mass: All stakeholders in Africa; governments, private sector and civil society should work together to boost their numbers & enhance visibilityCoalition of the willing and missionary approach: need to convert more, particularly influential constituencies, by creating awareness through appropriate channels: open air meetings, churches/mosques, parliaments, media, youth groups, women group, CBOs, petitions, etc

URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Negotiators: Keeping a watchful eye and tracking African negotiators in UNFCCC and demanding report-back (accountability)Pressure to governments: ensuring that negotiators are fully supported by their governments; technically & financiallyRepresentation: African governments should be fully represented; due to lack of sufficient resources, civil society should work with government delegations as they can use their own resources

URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS FARNPAN, OTHER STATES & NON-STATE ACTORSShould not be passive spectators in the debateHow should you engage others?FARNPAN under ACCID is playing key role in general stakeholder engagement at continental & intl levelWhat strategic alliances should FARNPAN and Southern African governments establish?What plans will SADC/FARNPAN play in Copenhagen? And in Africa?

Asante sanaKea Leboha (Lesotho) THANK YOU!