azn ricierca

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ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009 E Öhman J:or Fondkommission AB P.O. Box 7415 SE-103 91 Stockholm Sweden Visiting address Berzelii Park 9 = Telephone +46 8 402 50 00 Telefax +46 8 20 00 75 www.ohman.se = Cash distribution of USD 10/share possible by 2012 …and tail products valued at 3 times EBITA. ACCUMULATE Cash piling up, not only to be spent on acquisitions tÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉ~êë=áå=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~=Ü~îÉ=ÑçêÖçííÉå=íÜÉ=ëáòÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= Å~ëÜ=éçëáíáçå=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜáë=Åçãé~åó=áë=ê~éáÇäó=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=ìéK=_ó=êÉí~áåáåÖ= íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=äÉîÉê~ÖÉI=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ÇáëíêáÄìíÉ=ìé=íç= rpa=NMLëÜ~êÉ=íç=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=áå=OMNO=EëÉÉ=í~ÄäÉ=çå=é~ÖÉ=PFK=qÜáë= ëÜçìäÇ=Éå~ÄäÉ=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=íç=ëÜáÑí=íÜÉ=ÑçÅìë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=bmp=ëäìãé=áå= OMNO=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ=Åçãé~åóÛë=Å~ëÜ=ÖÉåÉê~íáçå=Å~é~ÅáíóK=pâÉéíáÅë=ã~ó= ~êÖìÉ=íÜ~í=íÜ~í=ãçåÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=ëéÉåí=çå=ÉñéÉåëáîÉ=~ÅèìáëáíáçåëI=ïÜáäÉ= ïÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÅçìåíÉê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=jÉÇfããìåÉ=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=ëéêÉÉ=çÑ=rpa= NRÄå=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=~ë=~=Ä~Ç=Ü~ÄáíI=Äìí=ê~íÜÉê=~ë=~å=áåÉîáí~ÄäÉ= ãçîÉ=áåíç=~=åÉïI=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääó=áãéçêí~åí=ÄìëáåÉëë=~êÉ~K=dçáåÖ=ÑçêJ ï~êÇI=ïÉ=Çç=åçí=ÉñéÉÅí=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=íç=ã~âÉ=~Åèìáëáíáçåë=çÑ=íÜáë=ëáòÉK= Break-up valuation shows hidden value in tail products qç=ÑìêíÜÉê=ìåÇÉêëÅçêÉ=íÜÉ=ÜáÇÇÉå=î~äìÉë=áå=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~I=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ= Å~êêáÉÇ=çìí=~=ÄêÉ~âJìé=î~äì~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=Åçãé~åóK=pÉîÉå=ïÉääJÇÉÑáåÉÇ= ~ëëÉíë=Ó=`êÉëíçêI=pÉêçèìÉäI=kÉñáìãI=låÅçäçÖóI=_áçäçÖáÅ~äëI=_êáäáåí~= ~åÇ=ems=êçó~äíáÉë=Ó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ëìÄíê~ÅíÉÇ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ëÜ~êÉ= éêáÅÉI=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=íÜÉáê=Å~ëÜ=Ñäçïë=EëÉÉ=í~ÄäÉ=çå=é~ÖÉ=OFK=qÜÉ=íïç= ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=ÄìëáåÉëëÉëI=låÅçäçÖó=~åÇ=_áçäçÖáÅ~äëI=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÅÜ~êÖÉÇ= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=åÉí=ÇÉÄí=áå=íÜáë=î~äì~íáçåK=qÜÉ=êÉëí=Ó=çíÜÉê= Éëí~ÄäáëÜÉÇ=éêçÇìÅíë=Ó=áë=íÜÉå=î~äìÉÇ=~í=rpa=NMKNI=ïÜáÅÜ=áãéäáÉë=~å= bsLb_fq^=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=PKN=çå=OMMV=Éëíáã~íÉëI=~ëëìãáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí= oCa=ÉñéÉåëÉëI=~åÇ=~å=bsLb_fq^=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=OKQ=áÑ=íÜÉ=oCa= áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=ÑìíìêÉ=ä~ìåÅÜÉë=ïÉêÉ=íç=ÄÉ=ïçìåÇ=Ççïå=EëÉÉ=é~ÖÉ=PFK= Two attractive options for management ahead of 2012 få=çìê=îáÉïI=íÜáë=äÉ~îÉë=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=ïáíÜ=íïç=áåíÉêÉëíáåÖ=çéíáçåë=ìé= íç=OMNOW=ÉáíÜÉê=ÅçãÉ=ìé=ïáíÜ=~=ï~ó=íç=ÄÉííÉê=Çáëéä~ó=íÜÉ=î~äìÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ= éçêíÑçäáç=çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=íçéJT=~ëëÉíëI=ÉKÖK=Äó=ëéáååáåÖ=çÑÑ=íÜÉ=låÅçäçÖó= ÇáîáëáçåX=çê=çéÉå=íÜÉ=ï~ó=Ñçê=~å=Éñíê~=Å~ëÜ=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=íç= ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêëK=^=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=çÑ=rpa=NM=áå=OMNO=çå=íçé=çÑ=íÜÉ=çêÇJ áå~êó=ÇáîáÇÉåÇ=ïçìäÇ=éìëÜ=Ççïå=çìê=kms=~ÇàìëíÉÇ=OMNO=mb=íç=VKM= Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=NNKMK=tÉ=ÑáåÇ=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êÉ=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ=~äêÉ~Çó= ïáíÜçìí=~=åçåJêÉÅìêêáåÖ=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçåI=Äìí=~åó=ÅçããáíãÉåí=íç=~=Å~ëÜ= ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=~í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=pÉêçèìÉä=é~íÉåí=ïçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=ìë=íç=ê~áëÉ= çìê=ÅìêêÉåí=Ñ~áê=î~äìÉ=çÑ=rpa=QSKRL=pbh=PPP=éÉê=ëÜ~êÉK= Rating ACCUMULATE 9/9/09 S O N D J F M A M J J A S 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 ASTRAZENECA (OME) OMX STOCKHOLM (OMXS) - PRICE INDEX Source: Thomson Datastream Share price SEK 321.5 Shares outstanding (m) 1,447.0 Shares fully diluted (m) 1,448.0 Market cap (SEKm) 465,210 USD/SEK 7.15 EUR/USD 1.4 Free float (%) 100 Reuters code AZN.ST Bloomberg code AZN SS Web site www.astrazeneca.com Next interim report 29 October 2009 Analyst Sten Westerberg Email [email protected] Telephone +46 (0)8 402-5288 = Sales y/y Core marg. Pretax EPS Core y/y P/E (adj) P/FCF EV/S EV/EBITA DPS (USDm) (%) EBITA (%) (USDm) (USD) EPS (%) (x) (x) (x) (adj) (USD) 2008 31,601 6.9 10,958 34.7 8,681 4.20 5.10 16.3 8.8 10.3 2.2 6.3 2.04 2009E 32,019 1.3 13,033 40.7 10,752 5.18 6.04 18.5 7.4 6.3 2.2 5.3 2.20 2010E 31,318 -2.2 11,997 38.3 10,913 5.28 5.78 -4.3 7.8 8.5 2.2 5.8 2.30 2011E 31,348 0.1 11,884 37.9 11,449 5.55 5.81 0.4 7.7 6.8 2.2 5.8 2.40 2012E 28,397 -9.4 10,703 37.7 9,724 4.73 5.33 -8.3 8.4 7.6 2.4 6.5 2.50 Market Cap (USDm)* 65,064 Assets 50,857 Dividend Yield (%) for 2009E 4.9 Net Debt(+) or Cash(-)* 4,166 Goodwill 9,874 Equity Ratio (%) 40.5 Minorities Associates* -45 BV per Share (SEK) 14.1 ROE (%) 48.1 Enterprise Value* 69,185 Price/Book (x) 3.2 ROCE (%) 40.0 Values marked * are current; others are end 2009E unless otherwise stated

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Transcript of azn ricierca

ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

E Öhman J :o r Fondkommiss ion AB P .O . Box 7415 SE-103 91 S tockho lm Sweden Vi s i t i ng address Berze l i i Park 9 =Te lephone +46 8 402 50 00 Tele fax +46 8 20 00 75 www.ohman . se=

Cash distribution of USD 10/share possible by 2012 …and tail products valued at 3 times EBITA. ACCUMULATE

Cash piling up, not only to be spent on acquisitions tÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉ~êë=áå=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~=Ü~îÉ=ÑçêÖçííÉå=íÜÉ=ëáòÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Å~ëÜ=éçëáíáçå=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜáë=Åçãé~åó=áë=ê~éáÇäó=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=ìéK=_ó=êÉí~áåáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=äÉîÉê~ÖÉI=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ÇáëíêáÄìíÉ=ìé=íç=rpa=NMLëÜ~êÉ=íç=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=áå=OMNO=EëÉÉ=í~ÄäÉ=çå=é~ÖÉ=PFK=qÜáë=ëÜçìäÇ=Éå~ÄäÉ=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=íç=ëÜáÑí=íÜÉ=ÑçÅìë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=bmp=ëäìãé=áå=OMNO=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ=Åçãé~åóÛë=Å~ëÜ=ÖÉåÉê~íáçå=Å~é~ÅáíóK=pâÉéíáÅë=ã~ó=~êÖìÉ=íÜ~í=íÜ~í=ãçåÉó=ïáää=ÄÉ=ëéÉåí=çå=ÉñéÉåëáîÉ=~ÅèìáëáíáçåëI=ïÜáäÉ=ïÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÅçìåíÉê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=jÉÇfããìåÉ=ëéÉåÇáåÖ=ëéêÉÉ=çÑ=rpa=NRÄå=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=~ë=~=Ä~Ç=Ü~ÄáíI=Äìí=ê~íÜÉê=~ë=~å=áåÉîáí~ÄäÉ=ãçîÉ=áåíç=~=åÉïI=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ~ääó=áãéçêí~åí=ÄìëáåÉëë=~êÉ~K=dçáåÖ=ÑçêJï~êÇI=ïÉ=Çç=åçí=ÉñéÉÅí=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=íç=ã~âÉ=~Åèìáëáíáçåë=çÑ=íÜáë=ëáòÉK=Break-up valuation shows hidden value in tail products qç=ÑìêíÜÉê=ìåÇÉêëÅçêÉ=íÜÉ=ÜáÇÇÉå=î~äìÉë=áå=^ëíê~wÉåÉÅ~I=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=Å~êêáÉÇ=çìí=~=ÄêÉ~âJìé=î~äì~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=Åçãé~åóK=pÉîÉå=ïÉääJÇÉÑáåÉÇ=~ëëÉíë=Ó=`êÉëíçêI=pÉêçèìÉäI=kÉñáìãI=låÅçäçÖóI=_áçäçÖáÅ~äëI=_êáäáåí~=~åÇ=ems=êçó~äíáÉë=Ó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ëìÄíê~ÅíÉÇ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ëÜ~êÉ=éêáÅÉI=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=íÜÉáê=Å~ëÜ=Ñäçïë=EëÉÉ=í~ÄäÉ=çå=é~ÖÉ=OFK=qÜÉ=íïç=ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=ÄìëáåÉëëÉëI=låÅçäçÖó=~åÇ=_áçäçÖáÅ~äëI=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÅÜ~êÖÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=åÉí=ÇÉÄí=áå=íÜáë=î~äì~íáçåK=qÜÉ=êÉëí=Ó=çíÜÉê=Éëí~ÄäáëÜÉÇ=éêçÇìÅíë=Ó=áë=íÜÉå=î~äìÉÇ=~í=rpa=NMKNI=ïÜáÅÜ=áãéäáÉë=~å=bsLb_fq^=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=PKN=çå=OMMV=Éëíáã~íÉëI=~ëëìãáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=oCa=ÉñéÉåëÉëI=~åÇ=~å=bsLb_fq^=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=OKQ=áÑ=íÜÉ=oCa=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=ÑìíìêÉ=ä~ìåÅÜÉë=ïÉêÉ=íç=ÄÉ=ïçìåÇ=Ççïå=EëÉÉ=é~ÖÉ=PFK=Two attractive options for management ahead of 2012 få=çìê=îáÉïI=íÜáë=äÉ~îÉë=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=ïáíÜ=íïç=áåíÉêÉëíáåÖ=çéíáçåë=ìé=íç=OMNOW=ÉáíÜÉê=ÅçãÉ=ìé=ïáíÜ=~=ï~ó=íç=ÄÉííÉê=Çáëéä~ó=íÜÉ=î~äìÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçêíÑçäáç=çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=íçéJT=~ëëÉíëI=ÉKÖK=Äó=ëéáååáåÖ=çÑÑ=íÜÉ=låÅçäçÖó=ÇáîáëáçåX=çê=çéÉå=íÜÉ=ï~ó=Ñçê=~å=Éñíê~=Å~ëÜ=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=íç=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêëK=^=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=çÑ=rpa=NM=áå=OMNO=çå=íçé=çÑ=íÜÉ=çêÇJáå~êó=ÇáîáÇÉåÇ=ïçìäÇ=éìëÜ=Ççïå=çìê=kms=~ÇàìëíÉÇ=OMNO=mb=íç=VKM=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=ãìäíáéäÉ=çÑ=NNKMK=tÉ=ÑáåÇ=íÜÉ=ëÜ~êÉ=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ=~äêÉ~Çó=ïáíÜçìí=~=åçåJêÉÅìêêáåÖ=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçåI=Äìí=~åó=ÅçããáíãÉåí=íç=~=Å~ëÜ=ÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=~í=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=pÉêçèìÉä=é~íÉåí=ïçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=ìë=íç=ê~áëÉ=çìê=ÅìêêÉåí=Ñ~áê=î~äìÉ=çÑ=rpa=QSKRL=pbh=PPP=éÉê=ëÜ~êÉK=

Rating ACCUMULATE 9/9/09

S O N D J F M A M J J A S180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

ASTRAZENECA (OME)OMX STOCKHOLM (OMXS) - PRICE INDEX

Source: Thomson Datastream Share price SEK 321.5 Shares outstanding (m) 1,447.0 Shares fully diluted (m) 1,448.0 Market cap (SEKm) 465,210 USD/SEK 7.15 EUR/USD 1.4 Free float (%) 100 Reuters code AZN.ST Bloomberg code AZN SS Web site www.astrazeneca.com Next interim report 29 October 2009 Analyst Sten Westerberg Email [email protected] Telephone +46 (0)8 402-5288

= Sales y/y Core marg. Pretax EPS Core y/y P/E (adj) P/FCF EV/S EV/EBITA DPS (USDm) (%) EBITA (%) (USDm) (USD) EPS (%) (x) (x) (x) (adj) (USD) 2008 31,601 6.9 10,958 34.7 8,681 4.20 5.10 16.3 8.8 10.3 2.2 6.3 2.04 2009E 32,019 1.3 13,033 40.7 10,752 5.18 6.04 18.5 7.4 6.3 2.2 5.3 2.20 2010E 31,318 -2.2 11,997 38.3 10,913 5.28 5.78 -4.3 7.8 8.5 2.2 5.8 2.30 2011E 31,348 0.1 11,884 37.9 11,449 5.55 5.81 0.4 7.7 6.8 2.2 5.8 2.40 2012E 28,397 -9.4 10,703 37.7 9,724 4.73 5.33 -8.3 8.4 7.6 2.4 6.5 2.50 Market Cap (USDm)* 65,064 Assets 50,857 Dividend Yield (%) for 2009E 4.9 Net Debt(+) or Cash(-)* 4,166 Goodwill 9,874 Equity Ratio (%) 40.5 Minorities – Associates* -45 BV per Share (SEK) 14.1 ROE (%) 48.1 Enterprise Value* 69,185 Price/Book (x) 3.2 ROCE (%) 40.0

Values marked * are current; others are end 2009E unless otherwise stated

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

=

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COST ALLOCATION TO TOP-7 PRODUCTS Product/Area (USDm) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2020ENexium Sales 5,200 4,914 4,523 3,969 3,455 3,020 2,420 753

Gross margin 77% 78% 77% 76% 76% 75% 77% 89%Selling expenses 1,635 1,532 1,280 1,122 978 815 605 113R&D expenses 217 200 102 0 0 0 0 0EBITA 2,167 2,082 2,102 1,883 1,649 1,455 1,258 560EBITA margin 42% 42% 46% 47% 48% 48% 52% 74%

Seroquel Sales 4,452 4,847 5,015 5,205 2,800 1,900 1,700 300Gross margin 94% 94% 94% 94% 91% 90% 90% 90%Selling expenses 1,438 1,454 1,504 1,561 840 570 425 30R&D expenses 461 471 470 470 196 133 48 0EBITA 2,288 2,638 2,742 2,863 1,523 1,007 1,058 240EBITA margin 51% 54% 55% 55% 54% 53% 62% 80%

Crestor Sales 3,597 4,433 5,448 6,375 6,675 6,838 7,010 1,807Gross margin 81% 80% 78% 78% 79% 79% 82% 79%Selling expenses 1,208 1,212 1,276 1,395 1,654 1,782 1,782 361R&D expenses 700 600 600 500 400 300 200 0EBITA 952 1,545 1,992 2,721 3,092 3,470 3,934 1,288EBITA margin 26% 35% 37% 43% 46% 51% 56% 71%

Brilinta Sales 0 213 383 638 1,063 1,275Gross margin 0% 85% 85% 85% 90% 95%Selling expenses 0 250 250 200 250 300 100R&D expenses 250 200 150 150 100 100 100 0EBITA -200 -400 -219 25 192 556 1,111EBITA margin -103% 7% 30% 52% 87%

Oncology Sales 4,954 4,492 3,843 3,386 3,267 3,422 3,567 2,959Gross margin 92% 90% 87% 85% 85% 85% 87% 90%Selling expenses 1,239 1,123 961 745 719 753 892 1,036R&D expenses 1,239 1,123 961 745 719 753 785 592EBITA 2,081 1,797 1,438 1,401 1,328 1,414 1,434 1,036EBITA margin 42% 40% 37% 41% 41% 41% 40% 35%

HPV royalties EBITA 180 198 216 234 252 252 252 45

Biologicals Sales 1,382 1,627 1,917 1,992 2,017 2,287 2,355 2,309Gross margin 73% 75% 76% 78% 78% 78% 78% 75%Selling expenses 440 400 400 458 504 572 589 462R&D expenses 500 550 575 598 605 572 589 577EBITA 69 270 482 498 464 640 659 693EBITA margin 5% 17% 25% 25% 23% 28% 28% 30%

Öhman forecasts ====

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

=

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MULTIPLES AND CASH ACCUMULATION IN REMAINDER OF AZN 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E

Other established Sales 12,016 11,705 10,573 10,209 9,800 10,277 10,962Sales growth 5% -3% -10% -3% -4% 5% 7%Selling expenses 3,931 3,933 3,589 4,113 3,846 4,017 4,167R&D, excl top-7 1,812 1,384 1,579 1,975 2,063 2,225 2,158as % of sales 15% 12% 15% 19% 21% 22% 20%EBITA 3,222 4,703 3,425 2,503 2,370 2,078 1,999EBITA margin 27% 40% 32% 25% 24% 20% 18%

Key ratios, Other established 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014EEV/Sales 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.8EV/EBITA 5.3 3.1 3.1 1.9 0.2 -2.0 -4.5EV/EBITA, excl R&D 3.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.1 -0.9 -2.1Based on share price, USD 45.5

Group Net debt (USDm) 7,174 4,802 899 -5,164 -9,413 -13,967 -18,794Capitalisation, excl top-7 (USDm) 14,684 14,684 14,684 14,684 14,684 14,684 14,684Allocated Net Debt, MedImmune (USDm) 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802Allocated Net Debt, Oncology (USDm) 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000Group Net Cash (USDm) -2,372 0 3,903 9,966 14,214 18,769 23,596

Total Group (USDm) Sales 31,601 32,019 31,318 31,348 28,397 28,381 29,076Sales growth 7% 1% -2% 0% -9% 0% 2%R&D expenses 5,179 4,528 4,438 4,438 4,083 4,083 3,878Group EBITA 10,958 13,033 11,997 11,884 10,703 10,509 11,150

Ebita margin 34.7% 40.7% 38.3% 37.9% 37.7% 37.0% 38.3%Öhman estimates =

=NET PRESENT VALUES OF EIGHT PARTS BREAK-UP IN ASTRAZENECA

(USD/SHARE) 5.0

6.0

12.00.8

3.5

2.2

10.1

5.7

Nexium SeroquelCrestorOncologyHPV royaltiesBiologicalsBrilintaOtherestablished

=Net Debt allocated to Oncology and Biologicals. Source: Öhman Equities

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

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FULL-YEAR ESTIMATES INCOME STATEMENT (USDm) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Sales 31,601 32,019 31,318 31,348 28,397 EBITDA 11,764 13,646 13,069 13,456 11,575 Depreciation of tangible fixed assets -1,687 -1,672 -1,572 -1,572 -1,572 EBITA 10,077 11,974 11,497 11,884 10,003 Goodwill writedowns 0 0 0 0 0 Amortization of intangible fixed assets -933 -528 -528 -528 -528 EBIT 9,144 11,446 10,969 11,356 9,475 EBIT as reported 9,144 11,446 10,969 11,356 9,475 Net interest -593 -383 1 152 308 Associated income 0 0 0 0 0 Other financial items 130 -312 -57 -59 -60 EBT 8,681 10,752 10,913 11,449 9,724 Tax expense -2,551 -3,253 -3,266 -3,416 -2,880 Discontinued operations -29 0 0 0 0 Net income 6,101 7,499 7,647 8,034 6,844 Attributable to minority 0 0 0 0 0 Attributable to shareholders 6,101 7,499 7,647 8,034 6,844 EBITDA margin (%) 37.2 42.6 41.7 42.9 40.8 EBITA margin (%) 31.9 37.4 36.7 37.9 35.2 EBIT margin (%) 28.9 35.7 35.0 36.2 33.4 Tax rate (%) 29.4 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.6 BALANCE SHEET (USDm) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Goodwill 9,874 9,874 9,937 9,999 10,056 Other intangible fixed assets 11,777 10,997 10,997 10,311 9,595 Tangible fixed assets 7,589 7,450 7,289 7,130 6,881 Associated holdings 156 160 157 157 142 Other financial fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 Inventories 1,636 1,921 1,879 1,881 1,704 Accounts receivable 5,800 4,803 5,324 5,329 4,827 Cash and equivalents 4,286 10,209 12,964 16,901 20,383 Total assets 46,784 50,857 53,871 56,410 57,848 Common stock 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,962 3,962 Retained earnings 11,961 16,502 20,959 25,618 29,040 Minority interest 137 129 121 114 107 Total equity 16,060 20,593 25,042 29,694 33,109 Pension liability 2,732 2,844 2,901 2,960 3,019 Other interest-bearing liabilities 11,848 12,167 10,961 8,777 7,951 Non-interest-bearing liabilities 16,144 15,254 14,966 14,979 13,769 Total liabilities 30,724 30,264 28,829 26,716 24,739 CASH FLOW (USDm) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Operating profit 9,144 11,446 10,969 11,356 9,475 Non-cash adjustments 3,472 3,259 2,600 2,100 2,800 Net financial items -463 -583 1 152 308 Tax paid -2,901 -3,253 -3,266 -3,416 -2,880 Cash earnings 9,252 10,869 10,304 10,192 9,703 Change in net working capital 769 820 -654 628 -118 Operating cash flow 10,021 11,689 9,650 10,820 9,585 Investments -363 -1,330 -1,971 -1,318 -1,060 Free cash flow before acq’s&div’s 9,658 10,359 7,679 9,502 8,526 Acquisitions -3,300 0 0 0 0 Divestments -1 0 0 0 0 Free cash flow 6,357 10,359 7,679 9,502 8,526 Dividends -2,739 -2,958 -3,190 -3,374 -3,422 Equity issues -610 0 0 0 0 Change in debts and adjustments -4,589 -1,479 -1,735 -2,190 -1,622 Change in cash -1,581 5,923 2,755 3,937 3,482

Source: Öhman Equities =

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

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KEY RATIOS PER SHARE FIGURES 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Shares outstanding (m) 1,447.0 1,447.0 1,447.0 1,447.0 1,447.0 EPS (USD) 4.20 5.18 5.28 5.55 4.73 EPS, adjusted (USD) 5.10 6.04 5.78 5.81 5.33 Dividend per share (USD) 2.04 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 Dividend per share, ordinary (USD) 2.04 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 Free cash flow per share (USD) 4.38 7.15 5.31 6.57 5.89 Net debt per share (USD) 7.1 3.3 0.6 -3.6 -6.5 GROWTH RATES (%) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Sales growth y/y 6.9 1.3 -2.2 0.1 -9.4 EBITDA growth y/y 18.2 16.0 -4.2 3.0 -14.0 EBIT growth y/y 13.0 25.2 -4.2 3.5 -16.6 EPS adj. growth y/y 16.3 18.5 -4.3 0.4 -8.3 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E ROE (%) 48.4 48.1 36.9 30.8 24.6 ROCE (%) 37.3 40.0 33.1 30.7 26.3 ROA (%) 24.7 27.1 23.6 22.4 19.7 Net debt (USDm) 10,294 4,802 899 -5,164 -9,413 Net debt / EBITDA (x) 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 Interest coverage (x) 9.0 18.3 30.5 34.8 36.2 Net gearing, leverage (%) 64.1 23.3 3.6 -17.4 -28.4 Equity ratio (%) 34.3 40.5 46.5 52.6 57.2 Payout ratio (%) 48.6 42.5 43.5 43.2 52.9 Dividend yield (%) 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 Dividend yield, ordinary (%) 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 VALUATION (x) 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E P/E 10.7 8.7 8.5 8.1 9.5 P/E, adjusted 8.8 7.4 7.8 7.7 8.4 Price/FCF 10.3 6.3 8.5 6.8 7.6 Price/Book 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 EV/EBITDA 5.5 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.6 EV/EBITA 6.3 5.3 5.8 5.8 6.5 EV/EBIT 6.3 5.3 5.8 5.8 6.5

Source: Öhman Equities

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

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DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER =

DISCLAIMER

This research report has been produced by E. Öhman J:or Fondkommission AB (“Öhman”), a company included in the E. Öhman J:or AB group of companies (the “Öhman Group”), for the private information of its recipients. This report may not be reproduced, redistributed or republished by any recipient for any purpose or to any person. Öhman is a Swedish securities firm subject to supervision by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. Neither the information nor any opinion which may be expressed herein constitutes a solicitation by Öhman of purchase or sale of any securities nor does it constitute a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where solicitation would be unlawful. This research report must not be relied upon or acted on by any retail or private clients. All information contained in this research report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents, and it is not to be relied upon as authoritative.

The distribution of this research report in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

Opinions contained in this research report represent Öhman’s current opinions as of the date of the report only. While Öhman endeavors to update its research reports from time to time, there may be legal and other reasons why Öhman cannot do so and, accordingly, Öhman disclaims any obligation to do so.

The risk associated with investments in financial instruments, including those issued by the company or companies mentioned herein, may generally be high, as their market value may be affected by many different elements, some of which may be specific to the company in question whereas others may depend on the general financial and political situation at large. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of investments in other currencies than the currency invested in by the investor and the income arising from them to rise or fall.

Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon such information, analysis and investigation as they deem necessary and they are urged to understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this research report or any information or opinion which may be set forth herein.

Recipients should be aware that Öhman, any member or affiliate of the Öhman Group, and any officers, directors or employees of the Öhman Group or any such other entity may from time to time (a) have a long or short position in the securities (including derivative instruments thereof) of companies mentioned herein, (b) buy or sell such securities, (c) provide corporate finance services to such companies or in relation to such securities. In addition, Öhman or other members or affiliates of the Öhman Group may make a market in the securities mentioned in this report. Information with regard to such potential conflicts of interest is provided in the section “DISCLOSURE OF FINANCIAL INTERESTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST” below.

DISCLOSURE OF FINANCIAL INTERESTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Guidelines on conflicts of interest

The Öhman Group has drawn up guidelines for dealing with conflicts of interest within the group. The guidelines include rules and measures aimed at achieving a sufficient degree of independence between various departments, business areas and sub-business areas within the Öhman Group in order to, as far as possible, avoid conflicts of interest from arising between such departments, business areas and sub-business areas as well as their customers. One purpose of such measures is to restrict the flow of information between certain business areas and sub-business areas within the group, where conflicts of interest may arise and to safeguard the impartialness of the employees. For example, the corporate finance departments and certain other departments included in the Öhman Group are surrounded by arrangements, so-called Chinese Walls, to restrict the flows of sensitive information from such departments. Öhman’s internal guidelines also include, without limitation, rules aimed at securing the impartialness of, e.g., analysts working in Öhman’s research department, restrictions with regard to the remuneration paid to such analysts, requirements with respect to the independence of analysts from other departments within Öhman, rules concerning contacts with covered companies and rules concerning personal account trading carried out by analysts. Öhman employees, including analysts, do receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability, however, no part of analysts’ compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports or to the corporate finance activities carried out by Öhman or any member of the Öhman Group.=Company specific disclosures

The beneficial holding of Öhman and other members of the Öhman Group of shares in the subject company of this report (the “Company”), if any, is less than 5 % of the total share capital of the Company.

During the past 12 months, no member of the Öhman Group has been lead manager or co-lead manager of any publicly disclosed issues or offers of or with regard to securities of the Company. During the past 12 months, no member of the Öhman Group has received compensation for investment banking services from the Company or otherwise been party to any publicly disclosed agreement with the Company relating to the provision of such services.

Neither Öhman nor any other member of the Öhman Group has entered into an agreement with the Company to write this report. A draft of this report, excluding any recommendation and/or target price, may have been submitted to the Company for review and confirmation of the factual information disclosed herein.

The Company does not hold any shares in Öhman. No company within the Öhman Group is a market maker or other liquidity provider concerning securities issued by the Company.

ÖHMAN EQUITY RESEARCH ASTRAZENECA Health Care Sweden 9 September 2009

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DISCLOSURE OF ANALYSTS’ HOLDINGS Name Title Net Position Sten Westerberg Analyst No position Christian Wierup Head of Research No position=

==ÖHMAN RATING BREAK-DOWN Rating Companies researched (%) Corporate Finance clients (%) (Updated continuously) (During past 12 months) BUY 39 0 ACCUMULATE 38 0 REDUCE 19 0 SELL 4 0=

RATING STRUCTURE Rating Expected total return in 6-12 months BUY Gain of at least 10 percent ACCUMULATE Gain of between 0 and 10 percent REDUCE Loss of between 0 and 10 percent SELL Loss of at least 10 percent

DEFINITIONS Fair value Value based on a long-term, market neutral risk premium.

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