Boston – USA

July 29, 2016

Impact Assessment Focal Point Meetingorganized by the CGIAR Independent Science and Partnership

Council’s Standing Panel on Impact Assessment

WHEAT AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS

Adoption & Ex-Post Impact Assessment

Strategy and Plans for 2017-2022

Presented by Dr Aziz A. Karimov

Wheat is one of the three leading global cereals that feed the world and

provides a global average of 500 kcal/day/per capita

It provides around 20 % of protein and calories consumed worldwide

Projections regarding wheat demand growth to 2050 abound and vary

widely around an average of approximately +50%, relative to 2010

Increased consumption is expected to occur in developing countries where

studies predict demand growth of 34-60% by 2050

China and India, which are home to half the world’s poor, already produce

and consume 30% of global wheat

By 2023, demand for wheat is expected to grow by 22% in India, 20% in

Pakistan and 19% in North Africa

WHEAT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

VALUE FOR MONEY

• Donor demands for immediate and sustained impacts make it increasingly

critical to provide tangible evidence on value for money

• Future adoption and ex post analysis will help illustrate WHEAT’s value for

money to the international community and to refine priorities

- Sustain enormous benefits and huge public returns to investment –

provided WHEAT maintains secure and adequate funding for investments

in wheat productivity improvement

- Global benefits from improved CGIAR wheat varieties are valued at US$2.2

to $3.1 billion annually relative to baseline 1994 (Lantican et al. 2016).

FUTURE ADOPTION AND IMPACT STUDIES (1)

• Micro analysis to identify farm(er) characteristics associated with adoption (e.g.

assets, environments, relations, technology attributes, time and consumption

preferences and risk behavior).

o Systematic impact studies will be build on a WHEAT I initiative

• Use of WHEAT germplasm, with a systematic stock taking of varietal releases,

WHEAT attribution and estimated adoption

o This builds on earlier and recently re-initiated global efforts (Lantican et al.

2005; 2016), supplemented by regional studies (e.g. SIAC-Asia).

• Assess the roles of macro-level policies, institutions, markets, social and gender

relations, and agro-ecologies to identify (with FP 1.4 and FPs 2, 3 and 4) feasible

options and incentive and disincentive effects in the whole wheat value chain

• WHEAT’S contribution to CGIAR 2022 (and 2030)

o N of farm households adopting improved wheat varieties and improved crop management practices;

o N of people (by gender) assisted to exit poverty;

o The rate of yield increase for wheat;

o N of people (by gender) meeting minimum dietary energy requirements;

o The increase in water and nutrient use efficiency in agro-ecosystems; and

o The area of forest saved from deforestation.

FUTURE ADOPTION AND IMPACT STUDIES (2)

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

• The impact assessment strategy will specify the analytical framework and

minimum data at all appropriate levels and scales

• Continue the use of propensity score matching, instrumental variables, RCT etc.

• The latest advances in adoption and impact assessment tools to generate

relevant and credible evidence

• Natural experiments

• Collaborate with SPIA to explore innovative approaches (e.g. DNA fingerprinting)

for determination and documentation of adoption and better estimation of impact

DATA REQUIREMENTS AND SOURCES

• Cross – sectional surveys

• Consistent, comparable and multi-country panel data sets

o For easy aggregation and multi-scale analysis using different methodological

options.

o Make use of large, nationally representative secondary datasets (e.g., LSMS)

• Institutionalize gender (and age)-disaggregated data through close and systematic

monitoring of progress

o To achieve wider and equitable adoption and impacts of technological and

institutional innovations that are being scaled-out.

• GIS/Remote Sensing

REGIONAL FOCUS AND RESEARCH COUNTRIES

• Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan,

Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda,

Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Turkey, Uzbekistan and Zambia

• Maintain balance between regions and countries with different levels of

current/potential adoption and impacts

• Current adoption and impact assessments in Ethiopia, Morocco, Uzbekistan

and Turkey will provide the impetus for similar work in the future

IA and RBM

• Impacts are described as the consequences of the CRPs on the state of

selected development variables concerning the SLOs, which are themselves

related to SDGs.

• Specific needs of the CPR for the conduct of IAs will be identified as part of

the monitoring plan as well as by the programming needs for prioritization of

research and improved performance.

• The rigorous application of impact logic for conducting meaningful ex-ante

impact assessment allows for determining the key issues that need to be

monitored in order to do ex-post impact assessment within the RBM

framework.

Research Highlights• Lantican et al. (2016): documents for 1994-2014 the global use of improved wheat germplasm and

the economic benefits from international collaboration in wheat improvement research funded by CGIAR and involving national agricultural research systems, CGIAR organizations, and advanced research institutes

• Ethiopia is a central success story and case in ongoing impact assessment work, both in terms of traditional varietal studies using representative panel data (Shiferaw et al., 2014) as well recent explorations into the use of DNA fingerprinting for unambiguous varietal identification (ongoing, to be published in WHEAT-2)

• Recent published wheat related adoption/impact work from CIMMYT and ICARDA includes selected germplasm studies (Ali et al 2015; Ghimire et al, 2012; Krishna et al 2016; Mazid et al 2015)

• Sustainable intensification practices (Ali et al 2016; Aravindakshan et al 2015; Aryal et al 2015a, 2015b; El-Shater et al 2016; Keil et al 2015; Krishna & Veettil, 2014; Krupnik et al, 2015a, 2015b; Rahut et al in press; Sapkota et al, 2015; Singh et al, 2012; Teshome et al 2016, in press; Yigezu et al., 2013, 2015)

• Tradeoffs and gradients associated with adoption of wheat innovations, particularly sustainable intensification (Erenstein, 2012; Erenstein et al., 2012; Valbuena et al, 2012, 2015)

Thank you for

your interest!

Photo Credits (top left to bottom right): Julia Cumes/CIMMYT, Awais Yaqub/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives,

Marcelo Ortiz/CIMMYT, David Hansen/University of Minnesota, CIMMYT archives, CIMMYT archives

(maize), Ranak Martin/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives.

az.karimov@cigar.org