Slide 1

Avoiding the Perfect Storm:Water-Food-Energy Security

Professor Dragan Savi Director, Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter

WORKSHOP, 24-25 JULY, EXETER1Perfect Storm & SecurityBackground and IntroCivilisation ChallengesDecision-Making, Modelling, Science and SocietyAims of the WorkshopIdentify Science Challenges/GapsBuild Foundations for a UK Project(s)

Outline

Perfect StormAn event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drasticallyAn actual phenomenon that happens to occur in such a confluence, resulting in an event of unusual magnitude

Not the film!The term "perfect storm" is nearly synonymous with "worst-case scenario," although the latter carries more of a hypothetical connotation.From the beginning, the phrase was in heavy use during thefinancial crisis of 20072012, even to the point of pundits anticipating "another perfect storm."3

Global human society must now attempt to solve a set of complex, interrelated problems that are fundamental threats to human civilisationContext for a Perfect StormMany of these issues are directly related to the areas of water, food and energySecurity, prosperity and equity

Risk Interconnection Map 2011WEF (2011)6Breaking news.The report highlights five key factors that could threaten future stability - severe income disparity both within and between countries, fiscal imbalances across the globe, greenhouse gas emissions, cyber attacks and a water supply crisis.

Source: World Economic ForumGlobal Risks 2012

Security is about understanding and managing risks (and uncertainty), tradeoffs and synergiesWhat is WFE Security?Physical, economic and reliable access to required quantity/quality of WFE (for health, livelihood and production) with acceptable level of risks to individuals, environment and society

The Perfect Storm of 2030!J. Beddington (UK governments science adviser), Business as usual projections:

Climate Change, Conflicts, Economic GrowthThe world's population from 6bn to 8bn (33%)Demand for food by 50%Demand for water by 30%Demand for energy by 50%

an event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically

Water for energyCoolingExtraction of fuelsHydropowerBiofuelsEmissions scrubbing

Energy for waterPumpingDesalinationTreatment

Water efficiencyAgricultural organisationVirtual waterSubsidies

BiofuelsPump efficiencyFertilizersFood supply chainTransport

Stakeholders

Civilisation Challenges:Water-Food-Energy

10All three areas have many billions of people without access (quantity or quality or both)Limited or No Access

Rapidly Growing Global Demand12

Source: McKinsey and Co (2011)

Source: US EIA (2012)

WFE Resource Constraints

All are global goods and involve international trade and have global implicationsAll have different regional and temporal availability and variations in supply and demandAll have strong interdependencies with climate change, population dynamics and environmentAll have deep security issues as they are fundamental to the functioning of society

Other Challenges (1)Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.All operate in heavily regulated marketsAll require the explicit identification and treatment of risks and trade-offsDue to the vastness of the individual areas and the difficulty of considering all three together, there is little work focusing on how to support decision-making at the WFE nexus

Other Challenges (2)Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.As a result, policies and regulations can often inadvertently create sub-optimal signals to economic, national security or environment concerns or even unintended consequencesOther Challenges (3)Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.

Modelling, Science and Society

19Modelling - a critical translation point between science and society between the physical aspects of WFE security and societal solutionsto engage stakeholders and achieve shared visionModelling for WFE SecurityPredict and Plan Approach?

International Atomic Energy Agency (2009)Schematic of Ethanol production and energy-water-food interactionsComplexity and Systems Science Approach

Modelling for WFE SecurityWFE Security Wicked ProblemRelationships are intimately linked, physically, socially and economicallyDifficult or impossible to solveGoverned by complexity and feedback mechanisms that cannot be reconciled by studying each component separately

Can modelling help us make better decisions and policy?

Modelling for WFE SecurityNot only incremental improvementsLong-term, transformative thinkingSystematic, rather than in one area only

To underpin the innovation processTo learn as we go along at least we should be making new mistakes

System Dynamics Modelling

System Dynamics ApproachSource: Proust et al. (2007) Climate, energy and water : Accounting for the links, Fenner School of Env and SocietyObjectives/Aims of the Workshop?

25Develop New KnowledgeDevelop understanding of the kind of futures that are possible and kind of decisions we need to make to get to desirable futuresDevelop the Human DimensionTo help manage whole landscapes (when nature meets culture)

Science Challenges WFE Nexus needs to be tackled in a trans-disciplinary manner, by involving various R&D providers, e.g.:Natural & ecological scientistsEngineers & TechnologistsSocial scientists (policy, economics, psychology, etc)Science Challenges To increase levels of understandingInstitutional capacity to act on the complex interactionsAmong stakeholders (engagement, empowerment)To identify technological and management opportunitiesTo develop and apply modelling tools that can support integrated decision-makingScience ChallengesThank youd.savic@exeter.ac.uk

Project?29