Aviation emissions inventories for global assessment · 13/12/2015 · Aviation emissions...

Aviation emissions inventories for global assessment

Bethan Owen & Ling Ling Lim Manchester Metropolitan University, UK

Overview

• Introduction to the FAST emissions model

• Emission scenarios

• Typical applications:

– CAEP/10 trends

– CAEP/10 CO2 standards Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)

– ICAO Global Market Based Measures (MBM)

– Climate impact studies

Sunday, December 13, 2015

THE FAST MODEL

The tools and inputs for global aviation emission inventories


FAST: Developing Global Emission Inventories

• FAST is a global greenhouse gas emissions model developed

and maintained by MMU and is used widely in ICAO-CAEP and

research activities such as EU FP6 QUANTIFY and FP7

REACT4C

• PIANO aircraft performance tool provides detailed fuel burn

calculations based on aircraft type and operating conditions

(altitude, speed, phase of flight etc.)

• FAST uses fuel burn data and operations to calculate CO2

emissions directly

• NOx emissions are currently calculating using the DLR fuel flow

methods, and nvPM emissions using the FOA method. These

methods are updated when appropriate (see next slide)

• Output can be 3D spatial inventory data or aggregated at any

level up to global annual totals



FAST: Calculating aviation emissions

airport location

aircraft/engine

type

route frequency

fuel burnt,

distance,

emissions

fuel flow

FAST: Calculating cruise emissions

• PIANO aircraft performance tool provides detailed cruise fuel

burn calculations based on aircraft type and operating

conditions (altitude, speed, weight)

• PIANO is run for a particular aircraft type for different

combinations of altitude and mission distance usually with

constant payload assumptions (although if this can also be

changed if necessary) to create a lookup table for FAST

• As a detailed performance tool PIANO calculates the mission

and accounts for the weight changes during the flight due to fuel

burn (other models use BADA and weight assumptions from

ANP, the aircraft noise and performance database)

• FAST uses the operations data to match most closely the right

PIANO mission and calculates the corrected cruise fuel burn

data to calculate CO2 emissions directly


FAST near-term enhancements

• nvPM emission estimates are to be developed over

this and the coming CAEP cycle using new engine-

test data (to enable the modelling of the impact of the

new ICAO-CAEP nvPM engine certification

standard)

• FAST is to include trajectory modules to determine

‘real’ and optimised routes for use in Air Traffic

Management (ATM) research

• Possible improvement to NOx emission cruise

estimates from lean-burn combustion engines



FAST: Example output for 2000 (QUANTIFY)

Owen et al., 2010


FAST: Example output for 2006 (REACT4C)

Lim et al., 2015

A RANGE OF SCENARIOS

A range of aviation emission scenarios are presented here. These

scenarios have been developed over the last decade and how do

they compare with the actual aviation emission pathway so far?

Sunday, December 13, 2015 10

Modelling Future Emission Scenarios

• Traffic demand forecast – e.g. route level

forecasts

• Fleet forecast – how the demand forecast will be

met, types and sizes of aircraft

• Technology Assumptions – rate of change of fuel

burn efficiency and other engine/aircraft changes

• Future changes in fuel type e.g. rate of

penetration of alternative sustainable fuels


QUANTIFY projections


Owen et al., 2010

Aviation emissions scenarios

• NASA, CAEP-4/FESG for years 1992, 2015 and

2050 (IPCC, 1999)

• CONSAVE for years 2000, 2020, 2050 (Berghof et

al., 2005)

• QUANTIFY for years 2000, 2020, 2050 (Owen et al.,

2010)

• GIACC/4 for years 2006, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2025,

2026, 2036, 2050 (ICAO, no date)

• Lee et al. (2013) for years between 2006 and 2050



How good are the forecasts?

FAST Typical Applications

• CAEP/10 Trends work

• CAEP/10 CO2 Standard Stringency assessment

• CAEP/10 Market Based Measures (MBM) work

• Climate impact studies: e.g. QUANTIFY,

REACT4C and many peer reviewed papers


CAEP/10 TRENDS

A series of Future Aviation Emission Scenarios in Depth


CAEP/10 Trends

• Each three-year cycle the Committee on Aviation Environmental

Protection’s Modelling and Databases Group

(ICAO/CAEP/MDG) develops environmental trends in aviation to

include:

- Noise; Local Air Quality (LAQ); and

- Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG)

• CAEP/MDG aims to use the latest input data and related

assumptions

• Work driven by ICAO Assembly Resolution A37-18, “assess the

present and future impact and trends of aircraft noise and

aircraft engine emissions”

• CAEP-approved GHG models include: AEDT (US);

AEM/IMPACT (Eurocontrol/EASA); FAST (UK DfT/MMU)


Background

• Demand Forecast, FESG central/low/high

forecast to 2040 (extrapolated to 2050)

• Fleet forecasts are populated by aircraft in the

Growth and Replacement database G&Rdb

• Fleet-wide assumptions on Technical or

Operational improvements for 9 Scenarios


CAEP/10 Trends

Modelling Assumptions and Inputs

CAEP/10 Scenario FE Assumptions

Scenario Name Technology Improvement Operational Improvement

1 Baseline including fleet renewal None None

2 Low aircraft technology and moderate operations improvement

0.96% pa, 2010-2015 0.57% pa, 2016-2050

CAEP/8 IE Lower bound

3 Moderate aircraft technology and operational improvement 0.96%pa, 20110-2050 CAEP/8 IE Lower bound

4 Advanced aircraft technology and operational improvement

1.16%pa, 2010-2050 CAEP/8 IE Upper bound

5 Optimistic aircraft technology and advanced operational improvement

1.50%pa, 2010-2050

CAEP/8 IE Upper bound

6 Low aircraft technology and CAEP/9 Independent Expert (IE) operational improvement

0.96% pa, 2010-2015 0.57% pa, 2016-2050

CAEP/9 IE

7 Moderate aircraft technology and CAEP/9 Independent Expert (IE) operational improvement

0.96%pa, 20110-2050 CAEP/9 IE

8 Advanced aircraft technology and CAEP/9 Independent Expert (IE) operational improvement

1.16%pa, 2010-2050 CAEP/9 IE

9 Optimistic aircraft technology and CAEP/9 Independent Expert (IE) operational improvement

1.50%pa, 2010-2050 CAEP/9 IE



FAST CAEP GHG

Model

CAEP 2010

Operations

Database

CAEP C-H

Fleet

Database

CAEP

Population

Database

CAEP

Airports

Database CAEP Future

Scenarios

to 2040

CAEP

Technical

Scenario

Assumptions

CAEP

Growth and

Replacement

DB

CAEP

FESG Traffic

Demand

Scenarios

CAEP Trends Type Analysis

Future Fleet

& Operations


Minimum gap to

CNG2020 (without alt

fuels)

1.39%per annum FE

2%per annum FE

CAEP-MDG: Example output


CAEP-MDG: Example output

CAEP/10 CO2 STANDARD CEA

CAEP CO2 Standard: Stringency Cost Effectiveness Analysis


Modelling Assumptions for CEA

• Populating the Growth and Replacement Database (G&Rdb): the baseline

case includes only in-production aircraft (IP) and project aircraft (PA)

provided to the CAEP/WG3 Project Aircraft Metric Value database.

Inclusion of conceptual or parametric airplanes is not pertinent to the

assessment to be done.

• Transition Pairs: For any Project Aircraft in the WG3 Metric Value

Database, the manufacturer may specify it as a transition pairing for an In-

Production (IP) aircraft. If so, the IP airplane shall go out of production over

a six year transition after the intro of the project airplane into service.

• Establishing the Baseline: The baseline demand will be met through the

usage of the G&Rdb, populated with IP and PA airplanes. All will be

available to satisfy the demand for all future time periods with two

exceptions:

• PA will only be available to satisfy demand for those time periods after the

identified entry into service (EIS) date.

• For IP airplanes representing part of a transition pair, the IP airplanes will

only be available to satisfy demand until six years after EIS of the PA half

of the transition pair. Sunday, December 13, 2015


CAEP WG3

Technical

Response Data

Also WG1

CAEP WG3

Cost

Assumptions

CAEP Cost Effectiveness Analysis

CAEP

Models Emissions

CO2 and NOx

[Noise]

CAEP

Operations

Database

CAEP C-H

Fleet

Database

CAEP

Population

Database

CAEP

Airports

Database

CAEP Cost

Effectiveness

Analysis

CAEP Growth

and

Replacement

G&Rdb

CAEP

FESG Traffic

Demand

Scenarios

Fleet Model:

Aircraft

assignment

FESG:

Cost Model

Future Fleet

&

Operations

ICAO GLOBAL MBM


Nature of the analysis

This shows the basic

premise of the scheme

which uses CAEP/10

Trends data for

projected CO2 emissions

bounded by the high and

low fuel efficiency

scenarios


Time

CO

2 e

mis

sions

Commencement of

GMBM

CNG2020

Aviation CO2 emissions ‘allowed’

Aviation emissions of

CO2 to be avoided

through offsetting

2020 2035

CAEP modelling tools used in GMBM

• Route-based adjustments are currently being

investigated for the GMBM

• This assessment uses the state-to-state information

on emissions derived from the GHG inventories

such as FAST

• Operator-based data are not usually retained in the

CAEP trends work but for the MBM work these data

are included (OAG-based operator data also being

used in the analysis for comparison)


CLIMATE IMPACT STUDIES



NOx emissions from inventories

Skowron et al., 2013


RF 2010 vs 2005

Note: uncertainties not yet calculated

(Lim et al. in prep)

Stratospheric

adjusted

New terms

Aviation

induced

clouds and

contrails


Challenges

• Cruise nvPM

• Propulsion efficiency

• Consolidating sector emissions to all sources

(eg. RCPs)

• …

Aviation emissions inventories for global assessment · 13/12/2015 · Aviation emissions...

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