Australia - Living laboratory for Transactive Energy? · Transactive Energy? CSIRO Energy Flagship...

Australia - Living laboratory for Transactive Energy? CSIRO Energy Flagship

Mark Paterson

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Powering the world’s largest island…

Australia - Living Laboratory for Transactive Energy?

An unprecedented transformation...

“The world’s electricity network will change more in the next 20-years

than it has in the last 100”

IBM Energy & Utilities, ‘Smart Infrastructure – Building the Intelligent Grid of Tomorrow’, Enercom Conference (March 2009).


Australia’s Future Grid Forum Industry-led

Whole-of-system

Long-term orientation to 2050



Residential HVAC transitions from a luxury to a commodity product in late 1990’s

Issues that motivated the sector to participate


Natural grid renewal cycles ‘collide’ with rapid growth in peak demand have been the largest source to drive up transport cost



For the first time in Australian history electricity consumption has decoupled from economic growth and is in decline



Solar panel uptake has been rapid In Dec 2013, the Clean Energy Regulator published its small-scale installation data of a rated output of 3,031MW from small generation units installed in Australia Australia is approaching a total of two million small-scale renewable energy installations



Retail electricity prices have risen sharply after long decline/plateau


Social Licence

Enabling Technology

Regulation Economics

New

Business Models

Electricity Ecosystem


Participants


Generators

TNSPs

DNSPs

Government & Regulators

Energy Retailers

End-users, NGOs & Others

Suppliers / Business

ACOSS AMIRA CEC CEFC EEC Grattan Institute Smart Grid Aust The Climate Institute Total Environment Ctr University of Sydney

Stanwell Corporation Hydro Tasmania ESAA

GE Alstom AmpControl Ernst & Young Landis+Gyr Siemens Stockland

DRET AER

AEMC AEMO

ARENA BREE

State Govt: Qld, SA & Vic Aust Local Govt Assoc

Grid Australia: Electranet SP Ausnet Powerlink Transend Transgrid Western Power

Ausgrid Aurora Energy Citipower Energex Ergon Energy SA Power Ntwks Western Power

ERAA AGL Origin Energy

Four 2050 scenarios


Set and forget Leaving the grid

Rise of the ‘Prosumer’ Renewables thrive

Scenario 1: Set and forget

• Closest to a linear path of evolution from the present

• Generation:

o 19% from distributed sources (gross)

o 30% from renewable sources (gross)

• Modest uptake of DS and EVs

• Dependant upon near-ubiquitous ‘set and forget’ energy service and DM solutions offered by incumbent networks


Scenario 2: Rise of the prosumer

• Extensive transition to distributed energy networks

• Generation:



• Modest uptake of energy storage and electric vehicles

• Majority see value proposition of remaining grid-connected and networks now ‘transact’ electrons between thousands of sites


Scenario 3: Leaving the grid

• Extensive transition toward user autonomy underpinned by distributed generation and storage

• Generation:



• ~30% are not convinced of grid value proposition and have entirely disconnected by 2050


Scenario 4: Renewables thrive

• Extensive transition to centralised renewables

• Generation:



• System is supported by :

o Extensive deployment of grid-side storage

o Extensive uptake of electric vehicles

o Modest uptake of DG and DS


Projected on-site generation share


Grid-supplied electricity consumption


Projected network utilisation


There is no scenario which is best for all


Each scenario presents vast change for some actor within the system However, we could generalise to say Scenario 3 would be represent the most change, Scenario 1 the least

Stakeholder Scenario 1: ‘Set and forget'

Scenario 2: ‘Rise of the prosumer’

Scenario 3: ‘Leaving the grid’

Scenario 4: ‘Renewables on tap’

Residential consumer

Commercial or industrial customer

Retailer

Distribution

Transmission

Generation and transmission system operators

Energy service companies

Metering services

Centralised generator – coal

Centralised generator – gas

Centralised generator – renewable

On-site generators

Storage technology providers

Electric vehicle providers

Information and communication technology

2015-25 Decade of Transition


2015-25 Transition Pathways for the nation


Seven observations about this transition...

1. Network-centric → Customer-centric

2. Centralised → Decentralised/Hybrid (esp. remote rural)

3. Fossil fuel generation → Continuous decarbonisation

4. Regulated natural monopoly → Increasing exposure to competition

5. 20 – 50% of electricity generated locally by 2050

6. Grid continues to play a critical (but evolved) role in 2050

7. Social justice issues now arising with ‘cross-subsidies’ from lower to higher income households


Asking the right question in an increasingly distributed energy future

“Who is going to pay for this Transactive Energy system?”

“Who is going to pay if our electricity

systems are not transactive?”


Australia as a ‘TE’ Sandbox…?


CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Mark Paterson Energy Flagship t 0459 841 006 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au/energy

ENERGY TRANSFORMED FLAGSHIP

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Australia - Living laboratory for Transactive Energy? · Transactive Energy? CSIRO Energy Flagship...

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