Australia china acedp mdba breifing final
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Transcript of Australia china acedp mdba breifing final
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Australia’s Murray Darling – an overview
Jason Alexandra February 2011 Pondi story 40k years
Oldest continuous culture
60 million years of separate evolution
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Structure – 1. Nature of the basin
2. A brief history of water policy
3. The Basin Plan
4. Challenges ahead, including climate change
6. Some tentative conclusions
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Energy rich and water poor – learn to live like Australians
Accept the nature of the place
Water is a strategic resource (and lack of it a limitation). Excellence in water governance is a strategic opportunity.
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1 The nature of river basins
River systems are highly evolved, co-evolved complex systems based on long term and complex “negotiations” between culture and nature
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Nature & Nurture
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Its today news ….but it’s a bigger, longer story of water reform
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What is the MDB? A large flat semi arid basin. A hydro-‐graphic unit. An icon? An example of coopera?ve federalism and a challenge to it? A 21 C test bed for ESD?
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Distribu?on of Australia’s surface run-‐off
>1 million km2 = 1/7th of Australia, size of France and Spain Covers 5 States and Territories >population of 2 million people > 40% agricultural produce
Understanding the basics eg average rainfall and runoff generation
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Representa?on of average flow volumes
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Flow genera?on
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A river, a basin, a story, a nation and its symbols
A changing relationship with nature
Murray mouth, Coorong and lower lakes
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Climate change: adds new challenges for basin management, adding to old challenges.
We need integrated planning and assessments
Complexity of climate and ecological systems Invest in scientific capacity
- dynamic non steady state systems Critical questions re thresholds and tipping
points
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Cumulative effects of water and land use at a basin scale?
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Cumula?ve, compounding and synergis?c effects
Difficulty in predic?ng and avoiding ?pping points in natural systems – eg
Aral Sea
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Australia - an ancient nutrient poor land with low population, limited industrial
development and poor water quality and ecological condition in most rivers
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Australian ecosystems evolved to capture water and nutrients. When disturbed through clearing
for agriculture they leak salt, soils, nutrients
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Modified catchments, nutrient and suspended
sediment loads and habitat
Very high nutrient and suspended sediment loads
Largely unmodified
River and catchment Condition
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Cost and consequences of transforming an ancient continent
4M tonnes of sediment pa and phosphorus exports - about 13,000 tonnes pa
Most agricultural lands have erosion 5-50 times greater than pre-European settlement.
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Biodiversity conserva?on challenges Global treaty obliga?ons
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Responsibility for 60 million years
of separate evolution
International obligations to protect biodiversity - creation stories or extinction stories?
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Ramsar wetlands - Australia’s international obligations? 16 in MDB
Chowilla floodplain Barmah-Millewa
Forest
Macquarie Marshes
Gwydir wetlands
Lowbidgee floodplain
Narran Lakes
Coorong Kulkyne Lakes
• ~28,000 • 6.3 million ha • 98% floodplains • ~3% protected
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copy
headline “Successive Governments sponsored
closer settlement and intensive irrigation development, with “dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making
land productive, running deep in the national psyche” (Lines 1994) and
notwithstanding, punishing droughts and misconceptions about the severity of the
natural constraints to settlement and production (Taylor 1940).
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Large dams era 1920-‐1980’s – na?on building and response to climate variability?
1990’s new policy direc?ons
“dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making land productive, run deep in the national psyche”
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A fully regulated/engineered system
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Major Water Storages on almost all tributaries in the MDB
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Periods of water diversion development (Kingsford)
1890 1912 1934 1956 1978 2000
6,000,000
12,000,000
18,000,000
Capa
city
(ML)
Government funded development of dams
Murray Darling
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An Irriga3on Drought – several dry years
June 2008 2,220 GL
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
GL/year
Growth in Basin diversions
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Irrigation crop and technology changes
Water use efficiency through technology, Knowledge of crop demands – eg partial root zone drying
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1901 Cons3tu3on
Building on past reform
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1914 River Murray Commission
1987 Murray-‐Darling
Basin Commission
1990’s Cap on Diversions
& Water markets
2004 Na3onal Water
Ini3a3ve &
The Living Murray First Step
2007 Commonwealth
Water Act &
Murray-‐Darling Basin Authority
2008 COAG
Agreement
2010 Guide to the
proposed Basin Plan
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A brief history of Australian water policy
1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought, royal commission, new dam”
1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows, unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation and cost recovery
1995 – MDB “Cap” on more extractions National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms
commitments to reform agenda, eflows and markets’ role in reallocating water
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Key Elements of the Basin Plan
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Released October 2010!!!
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Objec?ves of the proposed Plan
• Ecological health -‐ op?mise social, cultural and economic wellbeing
• Sustainable limits on take
• Environmental resilience
• Appropriate water quality • Efficient and effec?ve water markets
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Basin Plan must contain 15 elements, including:
• Sustainable diversion limits (SDLs)
• Cri?cal human water needs
• Water trading rules
• Environmental Watering Plan
• Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan
Water Act requirements
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In preparing the Plan, the Authority must take into account :
• best available science and socio-‐economic analysis and
• the principles of ecologically sustainable development
Water Act requirements
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How it will work
Annual Management Long Term Planning
SDL Compliance
State Alloca?ons
State Water
Resource Plan
Commonwealth Accredita?on
Evalua?ng Success
Basin Plan
State and territory water
agencies
MDBA
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When it takes effect
proposed Basin Plan
Final Basin Plan
2010 2014 2020
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How much addi?onal water does the
environment need?
Working out the Sustainable diversion limit
40
What are the poten?al impacts on the community?
How to manage the transi?on?
What are the sustainable diversion
limit proposals?
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2,442 key environmental assets
4 key ecosystem functions
41 41
Range of additional surface water for the
environment: 3,000 - 7,600 GL/y
106 hydrological indicator sites
18 KEAs 88 KEFs
30,000 wetlands
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30,000 wetlands
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2,442 key environmental
assets 4 key ecosystem
functions
30,000 wetlands
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2,442 key environmental
assets 4 key ecosystem
functions 106 hydrological
indicator sites (18 key assets,
88 key functions)
30,000 wetlands
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2,442 key environmental
assets 4 key ecosystem
functions 106 hydrological
indicator sites (18 key assets,
88 key functions)
30,000 wetlands
3,000 to 7,600 GL additional surface water needed for the environment
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Current diversion limits All types of take = total 13,700 GL/y • For surface water :
– Watercourse diversions = 10,940 GL/y • Diversions from streams • Floodplain harves?ng
– Intercep?on ac?vi?es = 2,740 GL/y • Farm dams and forestry planta?ons
– SDL proposed reduc?on of 3000 to 4000 GL/y – Or about 1 third
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Sustainable diversion limit proposals: surface water
Murray-‐Darling Basin CURRENT SDL PROPOSALS
13,700 9,700 – 10,700
Long term average
reduction (GL/y)
Water resource plan areas
3000-‐4000 gl/y or
22 – 29% reduc3on
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Socio-‐economic impact assessment
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Industry impacts
High Irrigated broadacre agriculture
Medium Cojon and dairy
Low High value perennial hor?culture (trade a major contribu?ng factor)
Regions most impacted (by $ value)
Southern Basin Murrumbidgee, Goulburn-‐Broken, NSW & Vic Murray, Loddon-‐Avoca
Northern Basin Gwydir, Condamine-‐Balonne, Namoi, Macquarie-‐Castlereagh
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• Cri?cal human water needs (s.86A) • Environmental Watering Plan (item 9) • Water Quality and Salinity Management Plan (item 10)
• Trading rules (item 12) • Water resource plan accredita?on requirements (item 11)
• Monitoring and Evalua?on Plan (item 13) • Compliance (item 8)
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Basin plan content
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plan for managing environmental water Environmental Watering Plan – Item 9
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Objec?ves, principles and methods to plan and priori?se
Framework for planning, coordina?ng and managing environmental water
• Regional long term planning (Basin states)
• Regional priori?sa?on (Basin states) • Basin-‐scale priori?sa?on (MDBA)
• Annual monitoring, evalua?on and repor?ng 51
Environmental Watering Plan
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Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan -‐ Item 10
• Water quality parameters: – Salinity – blue-‐green algae – Temperature – dissolved oxygen – Turbidity – Toxicants – Nutrients – pH
• Targets are non-‐mandatory • State water resource plans must include a Water Quality Management Plan
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• Commence when Plan adopted
For all water resources and holders of tradable water rights and aim to – reduce barriers to trade – minimise transac?on costs
– Provide consistent informa?on – protect environmental requirements
• State trading rules must comply with the Basin Plan 53
Water trading rules – Item 12
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Challenges ahead - The approaching storm? climate chaos!!! And its impacts!!!
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Climate Change Climate change is likely to be the greatest yet most uncertain threat to the shared water resources of the MDB
Up to 4400 GL/yr reduction in flows in 20 years
“Most of the effects of climate change operate
through water” Sir Nicholas Stern, 2007
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Future Projec?ons
• Global emissions tracking on the higher IPCC scenarios (such as A1F1)
• Warmer drier condi?ons in the future under all global emission scenario’s
Projected changes in run-off at 2030 under scenario A1B, showing the number of climate models (out of 15) yielding an increase or decease in run-off; from F. Chiew.
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Climate is hotter and drier
Global average temperature
Australian average temperature
Satellite estimate of soil moisture
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lack of sustained intervening wet periods
combined with record high temperatures
→ a drought without historical precedent in Southeastern Australia
most notably in autumn
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2008
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Climate change projections – CSIRO (Chew) • Large uncertainties in global warming
projections – dependent on greenhouse gas emission and global climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gas concentrations.
• As a result of global warming - extreme rainfall will be more intense - some regions will have more rainfall, other regions will have less rainfall.
• Large uncertainties in GCM modelling of local rainfall response to global warming.
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Key River Murray Catchment Area
What if this Drought is Different?
If the factors that make Australia’s climate variable are vulnerable to global warning?
New states or frequency?
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Amplifica?on -‐ decreases in
runoff
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•
Rainfall & Streamflow (hypothe?cal catchment)
30 units streamflow
70 units evaporation, transpiration & soil moisture threshold
70 units evaporation, transpiration & soil moisture threshold
20 units streamflow
10% less rainfall
100
rain
fall
units
90 ra
infa
ll un
its
30% less streamflow
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Lower rainfall = much lower Streamflow
CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007)
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Water scarcity eg Murray mouth – no flows to sea for years – major ecological effects
CLIMATE uncertainty. Crude water balance
ET = 94% of P precipitation 6% = R (runoff, rivers, wetlands, 2% = end of system or total irrigation demand) (Roderick and Farquhar 2009)
What if ET goes up and P goes down ?
Rainfall decline is amplified 4 times in reduced runoff
With irrigation all R is converted to ET via infrastructure – therefore almost no flow to ocean (lower lakes)
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Greater irrigation efficiency as surface water availability reduces?
Higher evaporation. More farm dams as surface water availability reduces?
Increased forest evapo-transpiration due to higher temps?
Higher frequency and intensity of bushfires due to higher temps and worse droughts?
Climate change Increased demand
for groundwater as surface water availability reduces?
Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Other Risks
?
? ?
?
?
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Maximum reduction in yield:
Vic 2003 fires: Reductions of up to 1237 GL/y in 20 years
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Groundwater Extraction can lead to loss of surface water.
Can be big lag times
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Growth in Water Bodies Between 1994-‐2005 – near Alexandra
● Existing water bodies - 1994 ● New water bodies - 2005
Source: Geoscience Australia
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The Big Challenges
The tough issues are all framed by and driven by • Climate change, • Economic change • Water policy reform – including eflows • Change in values and understanding
Major change is inevitable (happening), but what roles for government ?
Policies to support adaptations and transitions?
Maintain reform momentum
Govern resources in the public interest
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More Challenges
Planning under deep uncertainty – stationarity is dead. Climate impact and risk management
Appropriate institutions and policies for adaptation;
Policy science integration? Need for robust analysis and auditing of performance Understanding and acting on thresholds of change – not crash testing
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Conclusion 1: develop capacity for robust water policy under uncertainty
Use scenarios - plan for extremes - eg low water availability and deeper drought/climate change impacts
Plan for long term reductions in rainfall and runoff Accept a future of intense competition for water Recognise nature as a legitimate user
In face of uncertainty: • Institutional and policy innovation required • Build diverse, local adaptive capacity • Adopt policies to support adjustment and adaptation eg
water market reforms supports risk management and local adaptation
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Learn to live as Australia’s
Water is a limited resource! Bush burns! Floodplains flood! Droughts dry out the country – 70 out of 200 years
Conclusions 2: Water and drought
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River basin management involves culture, prac3ce and governance.
We need innova3on system and governance systems that work.
New strategic R&D interven3ons – from problem solving to shared learning and system solu3ons
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Conclusions 3: Pedagogy of complexity – Water is connected to everything -‐ Interrelated issues require mul?-‐disciplinary, integrated
and holis?c approaches
Campbell 2008
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…“ideas are all Australia has … Not military might, or a large population, or unique resources. … Ideas are what must sustain our democracy, nurture our community and drive our economy into new areas (Paul Keating (2002)