The World Standard for Power Market Simulation, Forecasting and Analysis

“We relentlessly seek to understand the needs of both the analyst and manager involved in power market forecasting and analysis. We listen

carefully to the goals of our prospects and customers, then go to work developing solutions that will help them meet those goals.”

Ben Thompson, President

2

3

You Can’t Always Control the Future of Power Markets, but Now . . . You Can Always be Prepared for ItAURORAxmp® from EPIS, Inc. is the industry’s most trusted software package for reliable electric market price forecasting, resource valuation and market-risk analysis. AURORAxmp is a power market simulation tool designed to forecast power prices over both the short and long term. At the core of the product is an extremely fast, hourly-dispatch engine that simulates the dispatch of power plants in a chronological, multi-zone, transmission-constrained system. The software includes our meticulously maintained and continually updated, calibrated and tested database, so the data you need is already formatted, ready to use, and accurate. The database can also be easily supplemented with the user’s own data, or with external data sources.

AURORAxmp is a Model Unlike Any Other Available in the MarketAURORAxmp enables the highest level of software integration, model control and easy data exchange to save users time and money. That’s why it’s the modeling tool of choice for leading power marketers, resource planners, regulatory agencies, financial analysts and energy consultants throughout North America, Europe, Middle East and Asia.

Why AURORAxmp?

4

One Product. One Focus. One Result. Best in the World Since its inception in 1996, EPIS, Inc. has been laser focused on one thing and one thing only-- building and supporting AURORAxmp, the best electric power market simulation, forecasting and analytic tool in the world. Instead of investing our resources in new companies, markets, and product lines, we put 100% of our efforts into aggressive R&D, stringent quality management, and world-class customer service for customers located in every geographic area. That’s why AURORAxmp continues to raise the bar for accuracy, speed, and ease of use. That’s why our loyal customer base won’t settle for anything less.

The World Standard for Electric Power Market Forecasting and AnalyticsAURORAxmp is the most comprehensive, reliable electric power market forecasting tool of its kind. In a single product, AURORAxmp delivers: the capability to produce electric market price forecasts, value analysis, uncertainty analysis, and automated system optimization. It has become a world standard for speed, transparency, and ease of use.

More Functionality and Power than Any Other Product!

5

More Functionality and Power than Any Other Product!

• Complete risk and uncertainty analysis • Fuel price, hydro and load volatility • Quantify volumetric and market risk • Sensitivity analyses • Hedging strategies analyses • Random or Latin Hypercube treatment

of price drivers • Flexible definition of stochastic variables• Full Monte Carlo or convergent

resource outage methods

• Day-ahead, monthly and long-term price forecasts

• Fully integrated Nodal/LMP analysis• Prices by bus, market areas, zones or

hubs• Advanced hourly commitment and

dispatch logic• Exceptional speed: outperforms other

models

• Customizable data views, reports, and charts

• Robust scenario management • Advanced project scheduler and

automation capabilities• Full access to all inputs and outputs

• OPF/SCOPF dispatch• N-x contingencies• Dynamic loss calculations• LMP, including FTR/congestion, analysis• Optimized controllable elements• Fully configured nodal data (East, West,

ERCOT)• Enhanced GIS display

• Capacity additions, retrofits, and retirements

• Lifecycle analysis • Optional build to reserve margin logic • Unlimited definition of supply

alternatives• Convenient specification of constraints

on rate of builds/retirements

• Emission cap-and-trade modeling• Energy constraints• Daily and hourly fuel constraints• Portfolio optimization (efficient frontier)• RPS targets

• Resource and portfolio valuation • Net power costing and fuel budgeting• Full heat rate and bid segment

definition• Market exposure • Flexibility in analyzing complex

contracts and portfolio options • User-specification of resources

and contract types

Resource Valuationand Net Power Costs Price Forecasting

Risk andUncertainty Analysis Long-Term Capacity

Expansion Modeling LP Dispatch Optimizationwith Constraints

Fully Integrated NodalCapability and Data Additional Features and

Time-Saving Tools

6

“The key attribute that caused us to use AURORAxmp is its speed. We do a lot of Monte Carlo and uncertainty analysis, and AURORAxmp does a real good job with Monte Carlo simulations because it is so fast. Its speed just dwarfs other models that we’ve used.”

Larry Vielhaber, Ph.D., Director of Price Forecasting Sowood Capital Management

Fast, Transparent, and Easy to UseAURORAxmp’s cutting edge algorithms give its dispatch engine exceptional speed, while state-of-the-art software design provides parallelization options and advanced automation capabilities, so you can take advantage of computing resources without human intervention. Unlike other models, AURORAxmp gives you easy access to interim results, including: all of the detail on resource operation, which resources are marginal, flows between zones, and reserve margins. This makes it simple to back-out the prices computed by the model. AURORAxmp exposes virtually all data structures so programmers can access and control the inner workings of the model if they desire more sophistication.

AURORAxmp includes a tremendous amount of diagnostics that report details of each model action taken, as well as the impacts of your data assumptions, to quickly and clearly show how they impacted results. Finally, AURORAxmp’s intuitive user interface continues to dazzle those experienced with other models. New users rave about its user interface, how fast they can produce results, and how easy it is to import/export large amounts of data to and from the model. No other modeling tool in its class can offer this level of speed, transparency, and ease of use.

7

“My team’s passion for being the authority on energy market intelligence results in enhanced client confidence and consistent productivity.”

Donnavan Leavitt, Assistant Vice President, Market Intelligence

Unrivaled Long-Term Asset ValuationAURORAxmp has no equal for long-term asset valuation. The model is ‘economically coherent’, fully utilizing the hourly chronological commitment/dispatch logic in that long-term algorithm. No other modeling package in the market offers this feature. Other approaches take two models or more, or make major simplifying assumptions (load duration curves, etc.), and their data formats are often inconsistent.

Model Impact of Renewables and Gain Market-Level and Company-Level InsightAURORAxmp is the ideal tool to assess the impact of new and existing wind, solar, and other intermittent generation sources. The model’s dynamic dispatch logic captures and reveals the resulting changes in dispatch, imports/exports, reserve levels, and ultimately, prices. In addition, AURORAxmp’s long-term capacity expansion logic accommodates intermittent resources and includes many features that enable convenient future-build-out scenario testing and comparison.

Comprehensive, Ready-to-Run Database Saves You Time and EffortAURORAxmp includes one of the most comprehensive and meticulously-researched databases available. Expressly created for the purpose of modeling power markets, both the North American and European databases come ready-to-run and are updated each year. Our team of analysts scours national, regional, and local sources for relevant detail on all major drivers affecting dispatch and market prices such as:

• Generating Unit Detail (including renewables)

• Fuel Price Forecasts

• Area, Zone and Pool Demand

• Hydro Energy and Constraints

• Emissions Rates, Limits and Prices

• Spinning & Operating Reserves

• Area and Zonal Transmission

• Flexible System Definition

• Online Data Documentation

In addition to updates with the latest fundamental data, EPIS invests significant resources into testing and calibrating each data set before it is released. This includes comparing model results with regional supply and demand, production data by fuel type, flows across major interfaces, and on-peak and off-peak prices at key pricing hubs for a recent historical time period. Licensees receive all data updates during the year, which includes 25-year-ahead price forecasts for over 100 unique zones/hubs in North America or for 42 unique countries in Europe.

Pre-formatted and ready to use, the AURORAxmp Database is both comprehensive and transparent

AURORAxmp Tracks Your Scenarios and Adapts to Your EnvironmentAURORAxmp makes it easy to manage and apply layered data changes and intuitively navigate through data change sets. There are no limits on granularity of data due to the power and flexibility of generalized time-series resolution down to the hourly level for virtually any variable in the model. Multiple input formats are available through SQL, XML, MS Access, and links to MS Excel worksheets. Multiple output database formats are also available to meet a variety of computing and network environments – SQL Server, MySQL, XMP SQL, Zipped XML, and straight XML. With AURORAxmp you’ll be able to quickly and effectively use proprietary assumptions to create a robust set of scenarios and results for decision makers.

Fully Configured Nodal DataAURORAxmp’s nodal capability comes fully configured to complete the highest level of nodal analysis for the ERCOT, CAISO, and PJM/MISO markets. The entire zonal database is utilized to inform the nodal model using an extensive set of mapping files. North American generation is fully mapped to the ISO-delivered power flow cases, creating a comprehensive picture of the power system. Also included are complete sets of defined hubs, significant corridors and contingencies. Our analysts have even aligned ISO-delivered data sources, like regional demand, to match the nodal topology. With the touch of a key, users can make market decisions…or custom fit data for more in-depth analysis.

A nodal commitment method makes use of generator shadow prices to inform the hourly commitment decisions. This linear program (LP) approach provides the benefits of a security-constrained unit-commitment (SCUC) without the corresponding penalty to run time. Extensive testing shows improved commit patterns in the presence of congestion, lower overall system production costs, and faster run times.

Easy Integration and Automation of Forecasting Workflow ProcessesAURORAxmp is easily integrated into existing workflow processes. Capabilities such as linking with Excel or other databases, scripting (to automate or have greater model control) and computational data sets (CDS to automate pre- or post-processes), enable easy integration with any process. This includes existing fuel and demand forecasting tools like Web-based data sources and other subscription services. Automating forecasting workflow processes saves time and makes forecasting tasks more efficient.

8

AURORAxmp offers a flexible, intuitive user interface and graphical displays that accelerate your understanding of nodal assumptions and their impact on results

“EPIS software developers thrive on fulfilling customer requests, anticipating market and technology trends, and providing our customer base with cutting-edge capabilities long before others have even thought about them.”John ScottVice President, Development

Continual Infusion of New Technology Keeps Us Out in Front of the PackAt EPIS, Inc we believe the future is now. That’s why AURORAxmp is always ahead of the competition in embracing the latest technologies to improve speed, ease of use, and enhanced functionality. We were an early adopter of intuitive user interfaces for managing data and projects, 32-bit and 64-bit operating systems to remove memory and IT constraints, and support for SQL-based databases. We currently employ several new technologies to enable massive increases in modeling productivity, including Microsoft’s .NET framework 4.0 parallelization libraries, to take full advantage of threading on multi-CPU-core platforms, and built-in automation and customization. AURORAxmp also makes use of best-in-class third-party components such as advanced performance optimization software – all at no additional cost to our customers.

Increased Productivity and Ease in Managing Multiple ProjectsAURORAxmp’s Project Scheduler provides multiple, concurrent project runs in a single interface. Additionally, multiple scheduled projects can run in the background across multiple servers. The versatile user interface provides the ability to conveniently monitor the status of projects as they are running, access completed projects, and view projects awaiting execution.

9

Powerful and Efficient User Interface Combined with Presentation-Grade GraphicsAURORAxmp is designed for professionals that demand natural and intuitive layout and function as well as presentation-grade graphics. Tabbed tables and forms can be dragged outside the main AURORAxmp frame and placed anywhere on multiple available monitors, maximizing the use of available screen real estate. AURORAxmp lets you make SQL queries that provide easy and fast interrogation of huge output data sets. Built-in pivot tables, customized reporting through computational data sets, and customizable input table views are all tied together seamlessly by both user-customized and EPIS standard industry templates. This gives you added capability to produce quality studies illustrated with solid graphics and analyses.

10

“Everyone on our team is keenly aware that we build enduring business relationships only by consistently delivering superb support and training.” Deborah Austin-SmithDirector, Customer Support

“EPIS, Inc. has by far the best customer service group in the industry. They truly listen to the needs of their customers.”Bill Carr Senior Director, Transmission AnalysisDynegy

“I have used many specialized software packages in my career from various companies, but EPIS provides the best customer support I have ever received from a software company.”Michael Kim, CFA Long-Term Fundamentals Iberdrola Renewables

For More InformationFor more information or a free demonstration of AURORAxmp for qualified prospects, call 1-208-255-3999, email info@epis.com, or visit our website at www.epis.com.

Dedication, Commitment, and Superb Customer SupportWhen you purchase AURORAxmp, you’re not simply purchasing a software package, you’re buying our entire team’s unwavering commitment to making you successful. Our customer support team is available day or night to help you get the most out of AURORAxmp and guide you in creating accurate models and forecasts that your company can depend on to make intelligent decisions. Ask our customers. There is no more customer-dedicated software team in the world… not in energy, not in any vertical market. Even our development efforts are customer driven, with the majority of our product roadmap generated by our user groups and customer feedback.

11

www.epis.com